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Old 12-03-2012, 07:12 PM   #2951
DK Barrel
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I play 99% of the time at Cascades. Only played at the River Rock once, just to get a poker chip for my collection.
I hear Cascades is donkey city. If it wouldn't take me 2 hours to get out there I'd love to try it.
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Old 12-04-2012, 01:18 AM   #2952
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Originally Posted by Digital03
What is the most you ever won in 1 month playing 2/5?
Something like $19K at around $100/hr. When I used to put in more hours than



*over a 6 hour sample*

Lol win rate itt
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Old 12-04-2012, 04:47 AM   #2953
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Originally Posted by Digital03 View Post
But this happened to limon at 5/10NL. But this doesn't mean he is a loser in the game right...


So I assume the statement you cannot breakeven in 6 months and still be a winner... would only be for players who play 2/5NL and under?


Also, i heard even the best LIVE LIMIT HOLDEM PLAYERS have losing years. I know that isn't NL... but i guess we can't look at limit as same for NL?
well i can't speak for limon and his bad 5/10 experience but for a good winning pro the edges at 2/5 are quite large - so with decent volume BE for 6 months is not going to happen

yeah more variance in LHE and it has been years since i played LHE regularly so i have no idea what kind of edges you can find in live LHE these days
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Old 12-04-2012, 05:08 AM   #2954
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Originally Posted by mike1270 View Post
well i can't speak for limon and his bad 5/10 experience but for a good winning pro the edges at 2/5 are quite large - so with decent volume BE for 6 months is not going to happen
lolol. Saying that something is not going to happen in a game with a luck component is ridiculous.

The BEST you could say is that it is "unlikely." But mathematically unlikely is the same as saying "guaranteed to happen in a big enough sample."

In other words, it is a near mathematical certainty that some winning player(s) somewhere will experience a 6 month break even stretch at 2/5.

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Old 12-04-2012, 05:32 AM   #2955
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks for the reassurance of future nightmare, mpethy.
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Old 12-04-2012, 05:35 AM   #2956
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we aim to please
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Old 12-04-2012, 08:44 AM   #2957
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Also, note that Limon playing at 5/10 actually does increase the likelihood. Let's say his winrate is $150, and your winrate is $100 at 2/5, well guess what, you win at 20bb/hour, he wins at 15bb/hour so his winrate bb-wise is actually lower, and thus he's more prone to swings than you are in that sense. This applies for people who play higher (and lower) as well, so in a soft 1/2 game, losing over a long period is far less likelihood than someone who grind 25/50 online with very small edges (obv).

Sure it's inevitable, but it's going to be quite rare. Yes there are winning players who've experienced those things, but imo this is because a) they've played a long time so they got closer to that "long run" of run bad nightmare b) they are quite rare and probably have ran worse than most players during that time by far.

So yeah, the chance of a newer player experiencing that kind of run bad is going to be quite rare, imo, and if you've played for like 3 years+ of poker, experiencing 6 months of runbad could be very sickening, but at least you have 2.5 years of other experience to keep you sane and tell you you're a winning player, and after all, if you're a winning player you have your own knowledge (and probably your friends') to analyze your situations and make sure you're still playing well/have an edge.
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Old 12-04-2012, 05:51 PM   #2958
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I am one of those who actually enjoy live and therefore appreciate this thread and especially the people in it that contributes! I got this issue where I tend to lose my patience at a live full ring cash table and start opening way too wide or 3Bet way to wide and also call 3bets way to wide. I need to build a few hand-tables to follow so that I can catch myself doing spewy things and also prevent myself from ending up in many tough spots. I'd like to eventually maximize my hourly rather than my LAGiness .

What I mean by hand tables is something like this:

Table: Majority loose passive fish / calling stations
Position: CO
We should open:

We can 3Bet vs EP: ...
We can 3Bet vs MP: ...
We should raise/iso limpers with: ...
etc...

This is just a quick made up example, and we don't think about balance/mix it up cause the fish are not adjusting or putting us on ranges .
I want to draw the line where I am certain that a specific hand is more +EV to open raise than to fold or to flat instead of 3Betting. We also assume that we are the best player at the table both pre and post flop. Everyone at the table sits on 100-150bb. Where do you guys draw the line, do you have big databases from online to run data from or do you follow a "base strategy"
Spoiler:


I've played many years, but this is something I started question myself recently. I want to play every hand preflop as profitable as possible. Lets just say that we play a solid TAG post flop game where we bet for value almost always (since we face calling stations). Everything changes a bit of course if just one reg sits down in position on us and starts 3Betting us loosely. So my "base strategy" will be made for typical live poker where the table consists of 6-8 clueless whales and max 1-2 nit regs except us.

I wish I had enough sample data to run, if anyone solid has FR hands from comparable soft online games saved up and would like to work with me here, that would be awesome. I am an expert when it comes to programming filters and such in PT and perhaps my analyzing can be beneficial to your game too.

I understand that there is no exact math to this since its almost always player dependant, so I'll be satisfied with an approximation for each decision. Lets say J7s is 0.01-0.03bb/100 more to open MP than to told, it doesn't really matter, folding is probably even marginally better (live) to speed up the game.

I hope I was clear enough and if not, please ask away and I will try to explain further.
Also feel free to PM me if you would like to look deeper into this.
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Old 12-04-2012, 06:41 PM   #2959
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Disorienter View Post
I am one of those who actually enjoy live and therefore appreciate this thread and especially the people in it that contributes! I got this issue where I tend to lose my patience at a live full ring cash table and start opening way too wide or 3Bet way to wide and also call 3bets way to wide. I need to build a few hand-tables to follow so that I can catch myself doing spewy things and also prevent myself from ending up in many tough spots. I'd like to eventually maximize my hourly rather than my LAGiness .

What I mean by hand tables is something like this:

Table: Majority loose passive fish / calling stations
Position: CO
We should open:

We can 3Bet vs EP: ...
We can 3Bet vs MP: ...
We should raise/iso limpers with: ...
etc...

This is just a quick made up example, and we don't think about balance/mix it up cause the fish are not adjusting or putting us on ranges .
I want to draw the line where I am certain that a specific hand is more +EV to open raise than to fold or to flat instead of 3Betting. We also assume that we are the best player at the table both pre and post flop. Everyone at the table sits on 100-150bb. Where do you guys draw the line, do you have big databases from online to run data from or do you follow a "base strategy"
Spoiler:


I've played many years, but this is something I started question myself recently. I want to play every hand preflop as profitable as possible. Lets just say that we play a solid TAG post flop game where we bet for value almost always (since we face calling stations). Everything changes a bit of course if just one reg sits down in position on us and starts 3Betting us loosely. So my "base strategy" will be made for typical live poker where the table consists of 6-8 clueless whales and max 1-2 nit regs except us.

I wish I had enough sample data to run, if anyone solid has FR hands from comparable soft online games saved up and would like to work with me here, that would be awesome. I am an expert when it comes to programming filters and such in PT and perhaps my analyzing can be beneficial to your game too.

I understand that there is no exact math to this since its almost always player dependant, so I'll be satisfied with an approximation for each decision. Lets say J7s is 0.01-0.03bb/100 more to open MP than to told, it doesn't really matter, folding is probably even marginally better (live) to speed up the game.

I hope I was clear enough and if not, please ask away and I will try to explain further.
Also feel free to PM me if you would like to look deeper into this.
I'm fairly new at live, so take this with a grain of salt.... there are too many variables to make a hand chart. My starting hand selection is a direct reflection on the people at the table and my position to them. I would never go into a session by saying I'm only playing "x" hands in "y" position.

I start by finding the table marks and watching their showdowns and how they play post flop.

I don't mean this to sound harsh, but if you need a starting hand chart to keep you from spewing, you don't need a chart, you need discipline. Poker, live or online is about adjusting and finding the best spots that allow your opponents to make more/bigger mistakes.
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Old 12-04-2012, 07:27 PM   #2960
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Sure, but then again, lets say your opponents are unknowns and you are a bot that is programmed to play GTO, surely there is a specific range for each position that will be perfect. I am not looking for a perfect range, but close to what will be considered "certainly more profitable to open than to fold"-range against randoms if we now must change the table setup.

32o will for example will never be profitable to open UTG against a calling station table 100bb deep, so the line can be drawn at an approximate level, the question is where.
I'd be happy if some of you live grinders just quickly posted: EP I always open this... MP always this, CO always this... BTN always this... 3Bet only crap when I got reads, else my value late vs EP open is always this...

I few inputs would make me happy

Thanks
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Old 12-04-2012, 07:37 PM   #2961
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You're not the first guy to want to try to write a script to beat live poker with minimal thinking.

GTO by definition is leaving money on the table. Llsnl is all about exploiting your opponents' tendencies at various spots.
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Old 12-04-2012, 07:56 PM   #2962
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Dude said I'm sure there is a bot who can play GTO, hahahahahaahahha. No there is no specific range for each position that can be played blindly and be a winner. Specific hand ranges for each position is playing blindly.
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Old 12-04-2012, 08:34 PM   #2963
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaUlater View Post
You're not the first guy to want to try to write a script to beat live poker with minimal thinking.

GTO by definition is leaving money on the table. Llsnl is all about exploiting your opponents' tendencies at various spots.
That is not what I meant . OK GTO might be a bad example for live poker. But we all got a set of hands for each position that we open raise if we are new at a table - why is it wrong to ask about it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks View Post
Dude said I'm sure there is a bot who can play GTO, hahahahahaahahha. No there is no specific range for each position that can be played blindly and be a winner. Specific hand ranges for each position is playing blindly.
There is always an optimal way of playing hand X on pos Y after action A when playing unknown players, but that is yet to be solved though.
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Old 12-04-2012, 09:28 PM   #2964
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It only takes a little bit of time to get reads. Table dynamics and players should determine how tight, loose, aggressive or passive you play.
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Old 12-04-2012, 09:42 PM   #2965
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It only takes a little bit of time to get reads. Table dynamics and players should determine how tight, loose, aggressive or passive you play.
I liked that response much better, no need in trying to ridicule me when I'm humbly asking for advice .

Now tell me, you are (amazingly enough) first in on CO and all players left to act are loose passive calling stations - what range are you confident to be profitable to open raise (all players are 100bb deep)?
What about MP?
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Old 12-04-2012, 09:45 PM   #2966
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Top 30% of hands should do the trick after some type of reads.
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Old 12-04-2012, 09:59 PM   #2967
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Originally Posted by Disorienter View Post
I liked that response much better, no need in trying to ridicule me when I'm humbly asking for advice .

Now tell me, you are (amazingly enough) first in on CO and all players left to act are loose passive calling stations - what range are you confident to be profitable to open raise (all players are 100bb deep)?
What about MP?
This is what I was talking about earlier. There are so many variants of "loose passive calling stations". How loose? Do they play fit or fold post? Will they chase a baby flush with terrible odds? Will they stack off with a baby flush? What has happened with the villains the past few orbits, ie losing a lot, card rush, tilt, and ect. ? What is their physical demeanor? What is YOUR image? What has happened with you the past few orbits? Have you butted heads with the villains left to act?

On top of that, you have to have a plan for winning the pot. "I have 87s on the CO and the blinds are terrible, so I'll outplay them." isn't a plan. There are players that could open ATC in this spot and be +EV. I'm probably not one of them, so if I was using their hand chart, I'd be loosing money in this spot.

This isn't ridicule. I'm simply explaining all the factors that come into play. These factors can change from hand to hand. If it was as simple as a hand chart, don't you think you'd see 8+ people sitting at the table with a laminated hand chart card?
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Old 12-04-2012, 10:16 PM   #2968
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Riverwood I didn't mean your response earlier, I do agree with you. So let me then ask you instead, what range do you open on CO first in REGARDLESS of how all the mentioned variables were set? In other words, hands that you don't even consider folding but will always be a snap raise.

Last edited by Disorienter; 12-04-2012 at 10:21 PM.
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Old 12-04-2012, 10:40 PM   #2969
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Originally Posted by Disorienter View Post
Riverwood I didn't mean your response earlier, I do agree with you. So let me then ask you instead, what range do you open on CO first in REGARDLESS of how all the mentioned variables were set? In other words, hands that you don't even consider folding but will always be a snap raise.
1st hand at the table, with no prior hours with the players....all pp's, any 2 broadway cards, and probably all Ax.
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Old 12-05-2012, 01:06 AM   #2970
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This is not the appropriate thread for discussing starting hand selection.

If interested in continuing this discussion, please bump one of the 8.6 million previous threads on the topic.
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Old 12-05-2012, 10:54 AM   #2971
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Fine mpethy, not that I found one similar on the first ten pages but I will dig into the archive instead. Thanks to you guys who took your time.
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Old 12-05-2012, 02:40 PM   #2972
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2012 bout end.
Hopefully I can keep the rungood up.

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Old 12-05-2012, 02:48 PM   #2973
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1/3 pony?
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Old 12-05-2012, 02:51 PM   #2974
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1/3 pony?
all 1/2 capped 100bb game.
They run pretty big most of the time though. Rarely short stackers and multiple rebuys.

I've spent most of my BR(still rolled for 1/2) on my house and tuition. My mom got sick and moved to Colorado and I moved into her house and took over mortgage. Otherwise would be playing 2/5 every weekend when it runs

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Old 12-05-2012, 03:06 PM   #2975
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Why is your average BI at $299?
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