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Old 12-03-2012, 04:50 PM   #2926
mike1270
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Digital03 View Post

2. Reading Limons thread, he mentions how many players will eventually have a 6 month breakeven stretch and this includes him at the 5/10 level though that is tougher. Is this true? I can't imagine a winning 2/5NL player having a 6 month breakeven stretch... or is this certainly possible?
if you BE playing 2/5 over 6 months with decent volume you are not a winner in the game
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Old 12-03-2012, 04:55 PM   #2927
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6 months is a very long time in the average 2+2er's life, especially since anyone above age of 28 is basically considered ancient.
i ancient - just call me mummy mike
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Old 12-03-2012, 05:26 PM   #2928
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just created an account. I'll start posting here often. I'm a little paranoid to say where I'm from since I don't want regulars from my casinos to get a window into how I think. I'll wear my tinfoil hat for now.

1/2
9,732 profit
487 hours
19.98/hr
94/148 sessions cashed(63%)
65.75$/Session
624 tips (not included in winnings)
9.9 big bet/hr
32.88 big bet/session
155.48 $hour std dev
77.74 big bet/hr std dev

Started playing the 1/2/5 game but I don't trust these stats yet

1/2/5
5,916 profit
106 hours
55.81/hr
19/28 sessions cashed (67%)
211.28 $session
131 tips
11.16 big bets/hr
42.26 big bet/session
223.75 $/hour std dev
44.75 big bet/hr std dev
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Old 12-03-2012, 05:33 PM   #2929
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Big bet is not big blind.
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Old 12-03-2012, 05:34 PM   #2930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike1270 View Post
if you BE playing 2/5 over 6 months with decent volume you are not a winner in the game
This is wrong ldo. Assuming any variance at all and only use the 6mo break even stretch, you are literally 50/50 to be a winner.

What is unlikely is that you are a big winner
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Old 12-03-2012, 05:40 PM   #2931
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So I tracked my VPIP at live poker over the weekend... stats look like this:

VPIP 3 out of 8 hands...

then flop a set of 8s, get all in vs JT, turn quads on 8TJ8 board.. doubled up.. stopped caring about my stats and went back to focusing on all the Vs

Did not even crack into the black jelly beans.

(edit: thought I was posting in it lives.. oops)

Last edited by bip!; 12-03-2012 at 05:41 PM. Reason: (oops wrong thread)
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Old 12-03-2012, 05:43 PM   #2932
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
So I tracked my VPIP at live poker over the weekend... stats look like this:

VPIP 3 out of 8 hands...

then flop a set of 8s, get all in vs JT, turn quads on 8TJ8 board.. doubled up.. stopped caring about my stats and went back to focusing on all the Vs

Did not even crack into the black jelly beans.

(edit: thought I was posting in it lives.. oops)
What was going to be your method of collecting data?

There's no way it could top my jellybean method.
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Old 12-03-2012, 05:50 PM   #2933
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
My 1/3 NL stats this year to date.

First 138.8 hours: +$300 = $2.16/hr = 0.72 BB/hr

Second 226.4 hours: +$9,963 = $44.01/hr = 14.67 BB/hr

All in the same room (other than perhaps a few sessions), versus the same player pool, with the same game selection ($300 = 100 BB max buy-in, etc.), playing my exact same style that I always do.

Wtf?

GrunninglikegodG
Thanks for making me feel better about my 100 hour $3.50/hr run, lol

Live variance is nuts.
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Old 12-03-2012, 05:51 PM   #2934
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Thanks for making me feel better about my 100 hour $3.50/hr run, lol

Live variance is nuts.
Where do you play, DKB?
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Old 12-03-2012, 05:55 PM   #2935
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Where do you play, DKB?
Mostly the River Rock near Vancouver.

It's alright, not as busy as the other casinos in the area, but it did have a lot of traffic recently due to the WSOP circuit being in town and then running up a large BBJ.

Truthfully those 100 hours were not my best but there were a few coolers and a few long stretches of card-dead-ness.
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Old 12-03-2012, 05:57 PM   #2936
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Big bet is not big blind.
Ah. In my app that's what it assumes. In 1/2 NL what would be considered "big bet".
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:01 PM   #2937
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by PokerDemon View Post
Ah. In my app that's what it assumes. In 1/2 NL what would be considered "big bet".
Big bet is for limit so it doesn't make sense to use it in NL but it would be twice the big blind.
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:14 PM   #2938
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

its an arcane term mother ****ers, BB = 2x the big blind, bb = big blind
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:21 PM   #2939
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Fair enough. So if 10 big bets is considered crushing the game, how would that translate to 1/2 NL poker?

What hourly rate is "crushing it" at 1/2?
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:24 PM   #2940
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

nobody is winning online at 10xBB/100 over the long term

20 $/hr or 10xbb/hr is "crushing" the game
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:25 PM   #2941
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
Mostly the River Rock near Vancouver.

It's alright, not as busy as the other casinos in the area, but it did have a lot of traffic recently due to the WSOP circuit being in town and then running up a large BBJ.

Truthfully those 100 hours were not my best but there were a few coolers and a few long stretches of card-dead-ness.
I play 99% of the time at Cascades. Only played at the River Rock once, just to get a poker chip for my collection.
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:28 PM   #2942
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by mike1270 View Post
my live winrate is 10x bigger than online in terms of bb/100
Fair enough.

But I'd actually expect the estimated number of hands I used in the post to be significantly on the high side. Assuming 7 days of play per week is really only applicable to full time players. Most rec players would be hard pressed to get 8 hour sessions in 3-4 days per week, so then you're back down to 20k hands, or even 10k hands for a 'weekend only' player in 6 months.
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:28 PM   #2943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t View Post
nobody is winning online at 10xBB/100 over the long term

20 $/hr or 10xbb/hr is "crushing" the game
You just said big blind is not big bet.
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:29 PM   #2944
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

yes BB = big bet, bb = big blind, jfc
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:29 PM   #2945
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You just said big blind is not big bet.
Nevermind I just misunderstood the BB v bb shorthand.
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:33 PM   #2946
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

BB = Pokerteracker bb = ptbb 2x the big blind....sooooooo in 1/2 no limit texas style hold 'em 1BB = 4$

my w/r on line = 3.19BB/100 or 6.38bb/100 longest break even 40k hands

zero losing months on line over a 3 year span

my w/r live @ 2/5 this yr 51/hr (last yr 54/hr) I am lazy so I'll round down to 50. Which is 10bb/hr = 5BB/hr

assume 30 hands/hr 5x3.33 = 16.66BB/100 or 33.3bb/100

since bf 2 losing months
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:34 PM   #2947
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how many hours/month you play on average?
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:37 PM   #2948
mike1270
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
This is wrong ldo. Assuming any variance at all and only use the 6mo break even stretch, you are literally 50/50 to be a winner.

What is unlikely is that you are a big winner
i stand corrected

if your "true WR" = $1/hr you could very easily BE for 6 months
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:40 PM   #2949
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I take a lot of time off during the winter - goal is 1200-1500hrs/year. During the series I played 300 in 6 wks. I also crank up the volume during deepstacks b/c the action is so good. So it varies widely.
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:52 PM   #2950
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Digital03 View Post
What is the most you ever won in 1 month playing 2/5?
Something like $19K at around $100/hr. When I used to put in more hours than I do now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Digital03 View Post
What is the most you ever lost in 1 month playing 2/5?
I've had several downswings that go into the $4-6K range, but usually I don't stay down for very long.

For me, a 6-month BE at live would be highly unlikely.
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