Sort of. Standard deviation went up a lot, and the rate initially went up, but taking a big downswing hit put my total winrate since I started opening up right around the same as it was before. Hopefully that gets corrected in a couple of months.

As you get more comfortable with the swings and the style of play I'd reckon so.
I just don't see how getting involved in as many hands as you can against inferior players could ever be a bad thing. (me saying being nitty against bad players is not going to be as profitable as being laggy against bad players).

Being deeper is less variance as being shallow if you play the same way when you were shallow and not changing your game for a deeper stack.

These two statements contradict oneanother. Either they do adjust, and we have more fold equity, or they do not adjust and we have the same fold equity.

My opinion is that they do not adjust, meaning that our unsuccessful big bluffs are going to be more costly. This increases variance.

playing speculative hands does not inherently make for swingier results.

For example, lets say we're playing 400bbs deep. Ok, we decide can cold call a raise from position with a hand like 57ss for our great implied odds.

Its not like this is a terribly high variance spot. We are usually going to miss and lose our initial preflop investment. Hopefully, occasionally, we are going to nail it hard and get paid off big enough to justify our pf investment. But this is not the sort of situation that makes for monster swings one way or the other.

However, the main reason i think playing shorter increases our variance is the way it effects how we play our value hands. In general,

Consider a situation where we have a hand like AKo otb. There is a MP raise and we 3B and are called. The flop comes KT2

If this hand plays out with 100bb effective stacks, we are getting our stack in by the river fairly frequently.

However, with say 400bb eff stacks, we are at least have to think about a PC line here, no? That is to say, i must play value hands more cautiously. And it becomes very difficult to play hands for thin value on early streets. I don't consider myself a nit in any way, but in a typical llnl game I am almost never felting a 400bb stack unless there is some kind of cooler involved.

This said, i consider my game fairly tight aggressive generally, which means it is focused primarily on value hands. I can see how this might not necessarily apply as much to LAG players.

I am firm believer in deeper is more variance (not per "buy in", but per bb). When you tangle with another deep stack in pots with odds 60/40, 55/45, etc - you win or lose a lot more bb than at 100 bb buy in. This is variance. Your win rate improves, hidden in more "noise" so to speak.

(sorry if the original question was based on "per buy in" - in which case, you will vary less just because the change in variance does not go 1:1 with change in buy in size)

This is holdem, not omaha. How often are you really getting in 300bbs in a 55/45 spot?

and incidentally, yes, we were talking about variance in terms of bbs, not BIs.

The caveat of less variance at deep is that you are better than the competition.

If you are getting 250bb stack in at less than optimal spots, then your skill is probably not as good, and should stick to more shallow game.

I guess I should have elaborated more. The spots that a guy would stack off with AK on a K high board are not going to change when he has 250bb as compared to 100bb. He's going to stack off regardless.
Now when I say we can play more aggressively; fish opens we 3b TT in LP. Flop is J54 we cbet fish calls, turn is K we can definitely barrel this because obv its a scare card and villain still has 3 pot sized bets left, whereas if we only had 100bb fish is only going to have 1 pot sized bet left in a 3b pot on the turn and barreling the K becomes less profitable.

I don't know if I'm conveying my idea properly.



As for the 57s example you say it as if we're playing fit or fold "we're either going to miss or hit big and get paid off". This isn't the kind of mind set you need to have when going into a deep stacked pot with a speculative hand. You can't just give up when you miss, if you do you're burning money with speculative hands. There are boards where we're going to have combo draws and we play aggressively or we flop one pair and decide to continue and maybe find a good spot on a later street to turn our SDV into a bluff.

We can use more scare cards on later streets (obv it has to be the right type of board if they are stacking off with TPTK) with deeper stacks as compared to a short stack where we have to just give up a lot when we don't hit our hand because the stack to pot ratio is small.

Fair point. But my counterpoint would be now think about "odds before hands are turned over". Let's say you flopped top set on a monotone board... There were 3 bets preflop, and now bet/raise/re-raise on the flop and it is to you.. Againt opponent's "range" at 300bb, you may be 55/45. (Range being made flushes and remaining sets). I didn't stove it, don't know true odds.. but point being - You are going all in here, yes?

Craziest deep action - hahaha - I ever witnessed: 5-10 NLHE game at Foxwoods ~2004.. the only two guys at the table that put their bankroll behind their chips in play at the table tangled. AA vs 45cc, flop Ac6c7c, $20k pot at 5-10 NL, all went in on flop (10k effective each = 1000bb). Flush held up.

If a player is putting in decent volume and has two consecutive losing months then they have big leaks and/or tilt issues. The games are just not aggressive enough where you need to push small edges and ride the variance train like you did in the small stakes online games. Live poker is a totally different beast with massive winrates compared to online. 10bb/hr equates to about 30bb/100. Compare that to the top online winrates for 50nl and 100nl and you begin to understand how different the games and their respective swings are. I have no idea what your poker background is like but I think a lot of guys that have played mostly online underestimate how soft the live games are.


As for your first assertion, I disagree. There are several people that post in this forum that have a clue, understand variance, and have the experience to come up with accurate estimates of what their long term winrate could be in the games they play.

Completely disagree with everything you have posted here. Just read Limons thread in the high stakes area and you will see he has had losing months as well, so have many people in that thread. I played 08/ half of 2009 and averaged $28 an hour over ~1000 hours and never experienced the BS i have had this past 3 months. I also thought it was rubish when id hear live pros say that you will run worse then you ever thought possible.

I dont see how I could not have had two consecutive losing months, for example here is what i posted a few months back, and after that things only got worse: (NOTE: all these hands happened within the last 2-3 months). Hopefully these hands highlight to people just how bad it is possible to run.

Hand 1: (2/3)
QsJs, QcAs3sflop all in on the the flop against a gut shot with 80% equity in my favour lose to KhJh, hits King on the river. Lose $475 pot

Hand 2: (2/3)
KdJd Heads up, against AdKh, flop all diamonds, turn blank, all in on the turn $520 pot, Lose to a diamond on the river. 85% equity my favour

Hand 3: (2/3)
33 on button call $15 raise 3 way, flop 3c7cQs, villain has Qc10c. All in on flop, river club. 70 % equity my favor. Lose pot $300

Hand 42/3)
44 vs 99 set over set lose $350,

Hand 52/3)
kk vs AA set over set lose $400, for $1300 pot

Hand 6: (2/5)
55, flop comes 577, one guy has 99, other villain has 7 4. All 3 all in on the flop, equals pot of $750+750+600=2100 pot lost, 750 of my money. Lose to 99 turns a 9. 70 % equity my favour

Hand 7: (2/3)
8sJs in blinds, flop comes 9s10s2s, all in on turn for $700 pot, lose 350, to 5 outs as the bloke next to me had Ks, river=spade. My equity 90.5%

Hand 8: (2/3)
I have 67 i turn a straight, all in vs opponent who has a gut shot, plus i have one of his outs as a 7, get 3 outed for $660 pot. My equity 93.1%

Hand 92/3)
I have 33 on button and turn a set, bet etc..until turn, becomes heads up, I push all in pot is $1500, guy calls with an open ender, makes it, I lose $600 of own money. My equity 82.1%

Hand 10 (2/3)
AA vs A7 all in pre flop hits straight and wins lose pot $330. My equity 93%

Hand 11 (2/3)
AK vs KQhh, flop 2hAc7d all in on flop. He calls with nothing pot =$250, My equity 93.8%

Hand 122/3)
Randomly i have had QQ vs KK 5 times, two I have stacked off on a low board, lost both times

Hand 13: (2/5)
AK Vs A8 all in preflop, lose to 8K7 flop 8 river, My equity=75%, $800 pot

Hand 14: (2/5)
All in pre flop i have 1010vs AK, I lose $1100 pot 56% equity

Hand 15 (2/3)
I have AK all in pre vs 10,10 I lose $270 pot, 43% equity.

Continued on from this post i have been running even worse then the above.

Flop set, 88 lose a $800 pot to a 2 outer against AA
AA all in Pre against 2/5 lose $500 pot
55 Set on flop all in$800 total pot against JK, flop 45J, Turn K River K
AA all in pre against 5/6. Lose 100bb ($400) He flops a straight
KK vs QQ Lose $600 (1200 pot) against flopped quads all in pre
KK vs JJ lose 60bb all in pre against quads again
ak v A5 lose to flopped 2 pair heads ,80ish bb
AJ vs A4, all in on turn i had nut flush draw as well top pair, 4 on the river
AQ vs Q6s, allin pre lose 70bb
88 vs A10 flip i lose 100bb
1010v AK lose flip 150bb
54 vs A7 This was 50/50 Equity lose 100bb
Lastly Omaha hand, Flopped 2 pair vs 2nd flush all in on the turn where i had 3 pair, which blocks alot of his clubs. River a Club, lose 400bb, which was $800/


How the hell wouldn't anyone have a losing month with the above results??
My results have been so horrendous, that even when I make a full house, i feel worried about playing it aggressively. Let alone the uneasiness of getting AA or KK preflop.

Anyway b.c of this run bad I have had to completely reevaluate my play, and currently only buy in for 70bb, and switch tables as soon as I get a double up, or if i lose a buy in and double up to original, I change tables as well. I just cant afford for this run to continue as it has been. When this rough patch is over and confidence is back up, I will go back to how I originally played.

That's brutal. Reminded me of one of the best posts in 2p2 history.

Ireguy's The difference between success and failure

Stay strong.

aaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhaahhahahahahahhahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahhahahahah hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Finally someone with some sense!!!

In his defense though, before this run has happened I would have thought the same; that it was impossible to have a losing month let alone two or three.

Limon speaks of year long losing months, which is fn scary.

My friend who's a crusher hadn't won money since July, lol.

$300hkd rake in macau, okay.

was def saying that there would be less BI variance

I could not imagine ever have a streak of 2 losing months if I was playing any decent type of volume. Have no idea why this thought seems laughable.

I ride the variance train like no other too and push any small edge I can get my greedy little fingers on.

It makes perfect sense if you leave after you win a ton and play if you're BE/down.

Doesn't mean it's a legit strategy, but gambler's fallacy gonna gambler fallacy

mpethy at this point I have to guess you just aren't very good.

obv not trying to be a dick, just sayin.

kb12345 - If I ever ran that bad in a month I think I'd have to give up, it would mess with my psyche. Those are some brutal hands to have in a months time.

Puravida great link, it inspires me to continue to plug away during the tough times.
I am currently on a 5.5BI downswing, its a lot for me to handle but its nothing extremely significant.

Right now my timing is terrible. For example, nitty shortstack of 45-50bb raises to 6bb with (overpair 99% of the time), I'm next in line, but I grit my teeth and fold 44 since I just don't have the odds to set mine, but one of the limpers with a decent stack calls. Flop comes J74, hero would have won a nice sized pot, but had to fold becausse it wasn't profitable in the long run. fwiw villain had KK. This kind of stuff has happened all month, flopping huge but having to fold pre due to stack sizes, or getting involved with a larger stack and getting unlucky. Hopefully the reverse will happen eventually, where nits have 100bb+ stacks and I can setmine them to death

Ike whats your longest drought/BE stretch, downswing, etc? I tend to appreciate your feedback becausse you are a realist. You used to love the game, now its time to move on, but you have been around the game in pro status about as long as anyone in this forum.

I wonder how many possibly good/amazing players have quit the game early because they just hit their worst variance the first few weeks/months of play. It's kind of sad to think about.

I mean, I just started really working on stuff, and just a 5BI downswing at 1/2 would really put me on my heels for a few months even though it wouldn't have any impact on my day to day finances.

What is decent volume.

Assume 200 hours a month, which is a huge grind. Thats 400 hours in 2 months or about 12000 hands.

You really don't think its possiible for even a really good player to be have a 12000 hand Downswing and still be good?

Im not saying its likely. Hey, maybe you crush souls in your game and good for you. but over Over 12000 hands, do you believe that you can run 4 standard deviations below expectation and still be making money? If the answer to this quesiton is no, then 2 losing months is a possibility for you.

I have seen some pretty good players run pretty bad for 6 months to a year. One in particular i would have thought some of the **** he was telling me was a level if i did not see enough of it with my own two eyes to be sure it was sustantially true (and this is a guy with multiple WSOP cashes and 2 (non me ldo) final tables.

400*30=12000 FYI

ninja edit ftw. I was thinking 12K but writing 1200 the whole time. teach me to drink and post.

The answer is obviously "possibly but unlikely".