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Old 11-01-2012, 07:17 PM   #2726
CIarence
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Wait, you guys include travel time and breaks in your logs? That seems silly. I make a note of the time in my phone when I sit down at the table. If I take a >15 min break, I adjust the starting time. My purpose is to track how I'm doing in the poker game. Do you deduct the cost of gas from your net total also?
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Old 11-01-2012, 07:22 PM   #2727
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I'm currently in a situation where I live w/my parents as a former internet mtt pro. I have pretty much one place to play nl cash. That poker room only runs 1/2nl with the occasional 2/5nl game a couple of days a month at best. We have really good dealers and auto shufflers so we get to see a very solid amount of hands/hr. It was a really good situation for 1/2nl until a few weeks ago when we got the bad beat jackpot. A majority of my stats were with buyins maxed at 300 where the rake was 10% max at $4. Now $1 gets taken if a flop is seen for the bbj. So far bbj hasn't brought in an influx of new fish so it sucks.

As of now I'm at 331.75 hrs w/a winrate of $24.57/hr. At my card room there's essentially one really good player who probably wins about as much as I do if not more, maybe 3 or 4 decent winning players who have big leaks, another 4 or 5 break even players, and then the rest are fish.

As of right now I'm grinding up to an acceptable amount so that I can move to las vegas where I can grind at higher limits.
At the moment I'm sitting at 419.75 hrs and a $17.74/hr winrate. Pretty brutal downswing since then w/a 2 very nice sessions, a good session mixed in. Since my quoted post my sessions look like this:

-$330.00
-$378.00

$31.00
-$337.00
-$498.00

$750.00
-$89.00
-$90.00
-$110.00

$30.00
$6.00
-$170.00
-$106.00
-$271.00

$87.00
$108.00
$409.00
$805.00
-$401.00
-$571.00
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Old 11-01-2012, 07:28 PM   #2728
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Where do you play at? This sounds similar to my room, but they take $5 max rake?
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Old 11-01-2012, 07:33 PM   #2729
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Where do you play at? This sounds similar to my room, but they take $5 max rake?
I play in a little casino in Illinois.
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Old 11-01-2012, 07:35 PM   #2730
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Ah ok. I'm in Indiana.
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Old 11-01-2012, 08:24 PM   #2731
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Originally Posted by CIarence View Post
Wait, you guys include travel time and breaks in your logs? That seems silly. I make a note of the time in my phone when I sit down at the table. If I take a >15 min break, I adjust the starting time. My purpose is to track how I'm doing in the poker game. Do you deduct the cost of gas from your net total also?
Not directly in my log. I assume that bathroom breaks are uniform regardless of location and an unavoidable few hands I have to miss. But the transportation costs are worth considering when you have multiple options for places to play. Since the distance doesn't change from session to session, I use an average travel time for each location, and a general fuel cost (could make this more accurate I guess).

Take a simplified example:
Casino A, $5/hr winrate, 30 mins travel time one way, free parking
Casino B, $10/hr winrate, 60 mins travel time one way, $10 to park/tolls

Assuming a typical 6 hour session
A) ($5*6 winnings - 40miles/30mpg*$4/gal )/(6+1)hrs = $3.52/hr
B) ($10*6 winnings - 80miles/30mpg*$4/gal - $10 parking)/(6+2)hrs = $4.92/hr

Based on the raw winrate numbers, it looks like Casino B is a better place to play, but once we account for the additional travel time and costs, there is less difference between the two. If we decrease the winrate at B a little to $8/hr:
B+) ($8*6 winnings - 80miles/30mpg*$4/gal - $10 parking)/(6+2)hrs = $3.42/hr
In this case it makes more sense to go to Casino A, even though a raw 'at the table' winrate says otherwise. This gets even more pronounced if you correct for the same 'out of the house' session length, ie leave the house at noon and get back at midnight.


Now obviously these kinds of corrections depend on the length of your session, vehicle fuel costs, etc. So I agree with you that it doesn't make sense to include them directly in your session results. But they are handy when you're looking back at a year's worth of data looking for potential leaks.
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Old 11-02-2012, 01:40 AM   #2732
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

wow my local dog track is 5/2 max rake. fcuking $2 bbj rake wtf is that man. probably why i just make the 2 hr drive to the bigger casino.
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Old 11-02-2012, 02:11 AM   #2733
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Not directly in my log. I assume that bathroom breaks are uniform regardless of location and an unavoidable few hands I have to miss. But the transportation costs are worth considering when you have multiple options for places to play. Since the distance doesn't change from session to session, I use an average travel time for each location, and a general fuel cost (could make this more accurate I guess).

Take a simplified example:
Casino A, $5/hr winrate, 30 mins travel time one way, free parking
Casino B, $10/hr winrate, 60 mins travel time one way, $10 to park/tolls

Assuming a typical 6 hour session
A) ($5*6 winnings - 40miles/30mpg*$4/gal )/(6+1)hrs = $3.52/hr
B) ($10*6 winnings - 80miles/30mpg*$4/gal - $10 parking)/(6+2)hrs = $4.92/hr

Based on the raw winrate numbers, it looks like Casino B is a better place to play, but once we account for the additional travel time and costs, there is less difference between the two. If we decrease the winrate at B a little to $8/hr:
B+) ($8*6 winnings - 80miles/30mpg*$4/gal - $10 parking)/(6+2)hrs = $3.42/hr
In this case it makes more sense to go to Casino A, even though a raw 'at the table' winrate says otherwise. This gets even more pronounced if you correct for the same 'out of the house' session length, ie leave the house at noon and get back at midnight.


Now obviously these kinds of corrections depend on the length of your session, vehicle fuel costs, etc. So I agree with you that it doesn't make sense to include them directly in your session results. But they are handy when you're looking back at a year's worth of data looking for potential leaks.
actually, if you are going to figure gas prices into your win rate, you also need to consider wear and tear on your car. so if you are driving twice as far to casino B that's twice as quickly you will need an oil change, other repairs, and, eventually, a new car.
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Old 11-02-2012, 02:28 AM   #2734
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actually, if you are going to figure gas prices into your win rate, you also need to consider wear and tear on your car. so if you are driving twice as far to casino B that's twice as quickly you will need an oil change, other repairs, and, eventually, a new car.
True.
To some extent at least. The actual "wear and tear" of highway miles is pretty overblown by most people, the transients of starting and stopping and short trips are much much worse. So a 60 mile highway trip isn't really twice as bad as a 30 mile trip. In fact, 20 3 mile trips would be MUCH worse than 1 60. With an older vehicle that's been paid off for a long time and well maintained I'm not concerned about things breaking, or the fictitious "depreciation" of the car's value.

But yea, if I was to do a really detailed accounting of winrates/expenses I'd have to include an estimate of that as well.

Tips, comps, cost of food ($10 dollar burger vs $12 burger?), would all have to go into a full analysis.
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Old 11-02-2012, 07:27 AM   #2735
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Sol, that was a very good post about the poker lifestyle and the importance of balance. Don't want to go OT but anyone that reads this and is considering going full-time with poker should go back and read that post.



Have nearly 100hrs at 2/5 since moving up 1.5 months ago and I'm just over $60/hr.0 feel like that can go up as I get to know the play pool better. Had a pair of 3BI downswings that stung but as the BR grows so does my comfort with the swings. Still buying in for 70-80bb, sometimes I top up to 100bb if it's a real good game.

I had a pretty good winrate at 1/2 before taking a shot and it's become apparent to me that my regular game was very good 1/2 game. 300 max and w/usually 1-2 shortstacks. The 1/2 games at my new room are a joke. You're lucky if there are more than three 100BB+ stacks, no wonder people underestimate winrates.

Last edited by PuraVida96; 11-02-2012 at 07:33 AM.
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Old 11-02-2012, 07:32 AM   #2736
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by PuraVida96 View Post
Sol, that was a very good post about the poker lifestyle and the importance of balance. Don't want to go OT but anyone that reads this and is considering going full-time with poker should go back and read that post.



Have nearly 100hrs at 2/5 since moving up 1.5 months ago and I'm just over $60/hr.0 feel like that can go up as I get to know the play pool better. Had a pair of 3BI downswings that stung but as the BR grows so does my comfort with the swings.

I had a pretty good winrate at 1/2 before taking a shot and it's become apparent to me that my regular game was very good 1/2 game. 300 max and w/usually 1-2 shortstacks. The 1/2 games at my new room are a joke. You're lucky if there are more than three 100BB+ stacks, no wonder people underestimate winrates.

Hard to believe that the top win rates in Vegas are $50/hr tho, especially in the 1k max games.
Everyone thinks this way when they have a run good. 3 buy in downswing is nothing. Wait until you get to a 1-2 month downswing, in which you lose every time to 2/3/4/5 outs.
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Old 11-02-2012, 07:44 AM   #2737
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Read that and immediatley thought lol 3 buyins isnt a swing
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Old 11-02-2012, 07:47 AM   #2738
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I simply cannot believe people have never had over a 4 BI downswing, just seems absolutely ludicrous or you are the biggest nits ever
lol this! Im in shock reading everyone's posts. Ive had about 10 sessions in a row where i have gotten stacked for 100-300bb's and each time i am way ahead.

They are running amazingly well or are massive nits.
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Old 11-02-2012, 10:58 AM   #2739
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Read that and immediatley thought lol 3 buyins isnt a swing
lol - this sooo much it isnt even funny. I lost 4 bi in a single hand this summer to a 1 outer. Congrats on the 60/hr heater - but you need to log some hours b4 you can declare that w/r
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Old 11-02-2012, 11:25 AM   #2740
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Read that and immediatley thought lol 3 buyins isnt a swing
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lol - this sooo much it isnt even funny. I lost 4 bi in a single hand this summer to a 1 outer. Congrats on the 60/hr heater - but you need to log some hours b4 you can declare that w/r
the claim being made is that he has been playing full time for 18 months plus.
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Old 11-02-2012, 11:48 AM   #2741
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the claim being made is that he has been playing full time for 18 months plus.
lol my friend - ill see that and raise you - he has a hard time believing people win over 50/hr in vegas b/c 200bb bi yet.......wait for it.....he thinks his 60/hr can go up as he learns the player pool even though he buys in for 70-80bb. I dont quite follow this line of reasoning
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Old 11-02-2012, 01:10 PM   #2742
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lol my friend - ill see that and raise you - he has a hard time believing people win over 50/hr in vegas b/c 200bb bi yet.......wait for it.....he thinks his 60/hr can go up as he learns the player pool even though he buys in for 70-80bb. I dont quite follow this line of reasoning
wait wut? I think i missed that post. Which is odd, because as we all know I am stalking him on the WWW.
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Old 11-02-2012, 01:37 PM   #2743
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My largest downswings at 1/2 have been 11 BI and that's happened to me twice, then I've had a 10BI downswing once. I've also had sessions where I've won 5 to 6 BI. You guys are just playing to nitty if you've never had a 4 BI downswing.
Sitting waiting for premiums and pp's to set mine and grind out 6/hr doesn't sound very fun to me.
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Old 11-02-2012, 01:41 PM   #2744
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Originally Posted by LolPony View Post
My largest downswings at 1/2 have been 11 BI and that's happened to me twice, then I've had a 10BI downswing once. I've also had sessions where I've won 5 to 6 BI. You guys are just playing to nitty if you've never had a 4 BI downswing.
Sitting waiting for premiums and pp's to set mine and grind out 6/hr doesn't sound very fun to me.
haven't gone back that far in this thread but doesn't playing deep vs. playing shallow also come into play here? For instance I play deep 150BB starting 100% of the time and am usually 200+BB deep in 1/2 NL for sure, usually in 2/5 also......
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Old 11-02-2012, 01:44 PM   #2745
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haven't gone back that far in this thread but doesn't playing deep vs. playing shallow also come into play here? For instance I play deep 150BB starting 100% of the time and am usually 200+BB deep in 1/2 NL for sure, usually in 2/5 also......
I'd imagine so. My game is capped at 100bb unfortunately. I just don't see why anyone would short stack 1/2 when the player pool is always going to be terrible, being deeper is better.

Being deeper would mean the swings would be greater, as you should be getting involved in way more pots, and therefore having more gross spots.
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Old 11-02-2012, 01:45 PM   #2746
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haven't gone back that far in this thread but doesn't playing deep vs. playing shallow also come into play here? For instance I play deep 150BB starting 100% of the time and am usually 200+BB deep in 1/2 NL for sure, usually in 2/5 also......
Is it your contention that playing deep makes for larger downswings or smaller ones.

My personal opinion is that it makes for smaller ones in most LLNL games.
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Old 11-02-2012, 01:49 PM   #2747
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Is it your contention that playing deep makes for larger downswings or smaller ones.

My personal opinion is that it makes for smaller ones in most LLNL games.
Why do you think smaller?
Opposite for me.
If I'm deep and my opponents are deep I'm probably playing twice as many hands against them as if we were both 100bb. Bad players don't know how to adjust to a 250bb stack and play it the same way if they had 100bb. So shouldn't we be playing way more speculative hands?
Playing way more speculative hands = more swings no?

Also being deep lets us play way more aggressive, because we have more fold equity. Playing more aggressively = more swings.
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Old 11-02-2012, 01:53 PM   #2748
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Originally Posted by LolPony View Post
My largest downswings at 1/2 have been 11 BI and that's happened to me twice, then I've had a 10BI downswing once. I've also had sessions where I've won 5 to 6 BI. You guys are just playing to nitty if you've never had a 4 BI downswing.
Sitting waiting for premiums and pp's to set mine and grind out 6/hr doesn't sound very fun to me.
I've had 11-15BI down (depending on how you count the 300max games vs 200 max games). Opening up my game and getting into thinner spots for big pots (60/40 for $250 each? Sure!) certainly added to it, lose a couple of close spots in a row and your in bad shape. That NEVER happened when I played nitty as hell and bought in for 50BB
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Old 11-02-2012, 01:56 PM   #2749
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I've had 11-15BI down (depending on how you count the 300max games vs 200 max games). Opening up my game and getting into thinner spots for big pots (60/40 for $250 each? Sure!) certainly added to it, lose a couple of close spots in a row and your in bad shape. That NEVER happened when I played nitty as hell and bought in for 50BB
Well I'd be willing to bet your winrate improved
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Old 11-02-2012, 01:57 PM   #2750
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I could see being deeper being less variance against weak tight opponents because you'll avoid the variance of needing the best hand to win at showdown. But on average it should expose you to bigger swings in the negative or positive.

I've played with utr before at the bellagio. He's a nice guy but he seems to play more on the passive side so I could definitely see him not having a downswing over 4 buyins. I'm sure his winrate suffers because of it though. I've never seen him in the 5/10 games there either.
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