[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 1055 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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05-21-2023 , 06:00 AM

#26351

Blubbb

self-banned

Join Date: Feb 2022 Posts: 522

Quote:

Originally Posted by senjitsu

For live low stakes nl play, 20BIs is plenty. Remember, your winrate has a big effect on your bankroll requirements, since higher winrates have lower variance.

If, for example, you start playing 1/2 with a 4K bankroll and you go broke, you can be reasonably certain its your game, not variance.

Not moving up to 2/5 until you have a 25K roll is off the charts conservative. I would say that 20BIs is still fine. Again, if you drop 10K playing 2/5 the problem probably isnt variance.

Your winrate in 2/5 might be a bit smaller (though not that much smaller if you game select well) but you also have an option that wasnt available to you at 1/2 -- the option to drop down stakes if you run bad and your roll starts to seem insufficient.

well thats the point, if it is not variance it is our game. we are losing players than. at least i am in plo with 50buy ins a couple of times to zero.

Quote

05-22-2023 , 08:19 PM

#26352

tipperdog

adept

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 818

How do you account for bad beat jackpots and other non-skill "bonuses" in your records?

On the one hand, my ability to make $2,000 by folding 84, while QQ loses to KK on an AAA board doesn't say much about my poker ability. And counting that as a "win" would distort my charts and records upwards; but
On the other hand, I pay $1 into that jackpot fund every hand I win, so my effective win rate is effectively distorted downward (by a tiny amount) in every session I don't win the BBJ. Hence, I could reasonably account for the BBJ as "refund of 3 years jackpot drop payments" (and I'd probably still be behind).

My inclination is to put the BBJ in the bankroll fund but not count as "winnings" for hourly rate purposes, but I'm curious what others do.

Quote

05-22-2023 , 08:44 PM

#26353

AAJTo

adept

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 1,062

Quote:

Originally Posted by tipperdog

How do you account for bad beat jackpots and other non-skill "bonuses" in your records?

On the one hand, my ability to make $2,000 by folding 84, while QQ loses to KK on an AAA board doesn't say much about my poker ability. And counting that as a "win" would distort my charts and records upwards; but
On the other hand, I pay $1 into that jackpot fund every hand I win, so my effective win rate is effectively distorted downward (by a tiny amount) in every session I don't win the BBJ. Hence, I could reasonably account for the BBJ as "refund of 3 years jackpot drop payments" (and I'd probably still be behind).

My inclination is to put the BBJ in the bankroll fund but not count as "winnings" for hourly rate purposes, but I'm curious what others do.

I view it as part of the rake and if I win a BBJ I keep it out of my bb/hr but add it to my yearly totals.

Last edited by AAJTo; 05-22-2023 at 08:55 PM.

Quote

05-22-2023 , 09:19 PM

#26354

Yogurt Daddy

adept

Join Date: Nov 2022 Posts: 1,022

Interesting last few days.

Played 2/5, 2/5/10, and 5/10/25.

Ran bad/played bad in the 2/5 variants and lost $2k. Won $2k in the 5/10/25.

Then back to home location with the 1/3 1k cap match stack and picked up a $510 win.

Stats for the year thus far:

Quote

05-23-2023 , 12:56 AM

#26355

BiiiiigChips

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 7,479

Quote:

Originally Posted by tipperdog

How do you account for bad beat jackpots and other non-skill "bonuses" in your records?

Most apps have a bonus or jackpot entry. Adds to your total roll if you want it to but doesn't change your hourly or game profit.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

Quote

05-23-2023 , 12:20 PM

#26356

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,150

Quote:

Originally Posted by tipperdog

How do you account for bad beat jackpots and other non-skill "bonuses" in your records?

On the one hand, my ability to make $2,000 by folding 84, while QQ loses to KK on an AAA board doesn't say much about my poker ability. And counting that as a "win" would distort my charts and records upwards; but
On the other hand, I pay $1 into that jackpot fund every hand I win, so my effective win rate is effectively distorted downward (by a tiny amount) in every session I don't win the BBJ. Hence, I could reasonably account for the BBJ as "refund of 3 years jackpot drop payments" (and I'd probably still be behind).

My inclination is to put the BBJ in the bankroll fund but not count as "winnings" for hourly rate purposes, but I'm curious what others do.

I have a separate column in my Excel sheet for any bonus winnings and therefore am able to compute two different winrates (non-included versus included).

Even though we do pay for the BBJ drop, hitting a decent sized one will greatly distort our "actual" winrate (i.e. what we'd kinda expect to win at the tables with no BBJ at all). Otherwise, I'd be a $25/hr winner lifetime at my 2/4 LIMIT game (when really I was a $2/hr winner).

GcluessBBJnoobG

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05-31-2023 , 01:53 AM

#26357

Yogurt Daddy

adept

Join Date: Nov 2022 Posts: 1,022

I don’t think I’m playing again today. So, here’s results for May.

Had a swingy week the 3rd week of month. But overall, not terrible.

Here’s totals for year:

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06-17-2023 , 02:57 AM

#26358

Yogurt Daddy

adept

Join Date: Nov 2022 Posts: 1,022

June going pretty well so far:

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06-17-2023 , 07:04 PM

#26359

KatoKrazy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,533

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yogurt Daddy

I don’t think I’m playing again today. So, here’s results for May.

Had a swingy week the 3rd week of month. But overall, not terrible.

Here’s totals for year:

Wow 80% of your monthly winnings came from one monster session.

Quote

06-17-2023 , 09:14 PM

#26360

Tanqueray

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 1,689

Shouldn’t surprise no one that it may even come down to 1 or 2 hands in that session.

In other words, he’s probably one hand away from having a breakeven month.

Quote

06-17-2023 , 10:26 PM

#26361

Yogurt Daddy

adept

Join Date: Nov 2022 Posts: 1,022

Yea….that happens sometimes in live poker.

Having break even or losing months isn’t uncommon. So, pretty natural that a single big loss or big win can make or break your month.

Just like we don’t actually make our long term hourly rate….every hour we play. Hence the reason we should play extended sessions when table is good and short when it’s not.

Pretty much how poker revenue works.

Quote

06-18-2023 , 11:04 AM

#26362

Tanqueray

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 1,689

Right, so the follow-up question is, what’s the point of posting these irrelevant screenshots of meaningless intervals?

Quote

06-18-2023 , 11:08 AM

#26363

Petrucci

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 6,201

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tanqueray

Right, so the follow-up question is, what’s the point of posting these irrelevant screenshots of meaningless intervals?

No real reason i suppose. Anything below a 1000 hour sample is just meaningless short term variance noise imo.

Quote

06-18-2023 , 01:29 PM

#26364

AAJTo

adept

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 1,062

Why not?

This is the place you're supposed to post winrates.

Quote

06-18-2023 , 02:41 PM

#26365

Petrucci

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 6,201

Quote:

Originally Posted by AAJTo

Why not?

This is the place you're supposed to post winrates.

Sure you can post it here. I was just referring to the discussion going on regarding smaller samples and how meaningless they really are in the big picture.

If you win big for like 100 hours or 200 hours for example thats cool and all that,but its not really relevant in any other capacity than you being on a shortterm heater.

Quote

06-18-2023 , 02:52 PM

#26366

AAJTo

adept

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 1,062

When I was playing a lot I would post my monthly in here for self motivation. Sometimes if I was much lower WR for the month compared to my average I'd play a little extra just to turn an okay month into a good one. There's of course the bragging effect as well but no ones going to post their 3bb/hr WR so everyone ITT is either an all star or a liar. I like the sexy stats Yogurt posts and if people just posted their yearly this thread would almost never have any posts in it. We shouldn't be discouraging people for doing what this thread is meant for. (talking to Tanq)

Quote

06-18-2023 , 03:42 PM

#26367

Joe-exotic69

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 1,302

Since we are talking about variance…

My stats since i restarted holdem (dec 2021)

My longest breakeven stretch since

Quote

06-18-2023 , 03:49 PM

#26368

Tanqueray

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 1,689

You’re winning at 64%, too. That’s how much variance plays a role even when you are clearly winning.

Quote

06-18-2023 , 05:32 PM

#26369

OvertlySexual

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,093

Nice, Joe, but what’s the bb/hr? Do you play a lot of mtts? This can skew results in both directions.

Quote

06-18-2023 , 07:19 PM

#26370

Joe-exotic69

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 1,302

Ive played 5 tourneys, no huge score, up around 10k

6.29bb/hr , honestly not sure how accurate this is since i dont separate my sessions if i switch stakes.

Quote

06-19-2023 , 07:30 AM

#26371

Yogurt Daddy

adept

Join Date: Nov 2022 Posts: 1,022

The internet and this forum never fails. And they wonder why good players and such almost never post here or anywhere else not behind a paywall.

You could give some people on this forum $20 in quarters and they'd be mad because you didn't give it to them in pennies.

Pretty much has happened across the internet in almost every skilled category. The trolls go at it until anyone with any sense stops posting and you're just left with the trolls or lesser knowledge people.

Quote

07-20-2023 , 08:48 PM

#26372

KCniteGambler

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2023 Posts: 4

Right now my bankroll is coming out of work checks. I can only afford one 300 dollar buy per week. How negative ev is this to not be able to top stack up?

Quote

07-20-2023 , 09:02 PM

#26373

twitcherroo

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 2,483

I think it makes very little difference.

Quote

07-20-2023 , 09:04 PM

#26374

davomalvolio

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,738

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCniteGambler

Right now my bankroll is coming out of work checks. I can only afford one 300 dollar buy per week. How negative ev is this to not be able to top stack up?

I would save up for five months--and not plan any poker--so you have twenty buy-ins the next time you play.

Quote

07-20-2023 , 09:21 PM

#26375

KCniteGambler

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2023 Posts: 4

Quote:

Originally Posted by davomalvolio

I would save up for five months--and not plan any poker--so you have twenty buy-ins the next time you play.

Can I play profitable poker like this essentially taking 1 BI shots weekly hoping for a hot streak where I win a couple buy ins. Then adding 300 weekly to it. Would that allow me a quicker bankroll/hours since profitablity of player is measured by hourly?

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