Sorry, asking again.

So 200-1500 hours to confirm one is a winning player.

Then, how many hours to confirm one is a losing player assuming we can take note of when the player gets it in good/bad?

I’m guessing 30 hours is enough to confirm a losing player if they get it in bad more often than good.

Answering again:

from this to busto in 1 day! amazing!

Also there's 'winrates in certain spots', like, you 3b AK and brick vs a fish etc . Maybe you ARE a 10bb/winner, in all spots, but the spots in your session were ones you are a loser at.

With the ending of 2022 I put in the most volume I’ve ever done, just over 1100 hours, which is more than double of my previous high of 495 hours. All of it while working a 40+ hour profession and having a wife and 2 elementary school aged kids at home.

It was a ****ing massive grind at times.

People who keep asking if 300 hours is enough time to determine a WR have no clue. I’d say the 1100 hours isn’t enough. I had three (3) 5 figure downswings playing ~80% $5 blinds, ~15% $10 blinds and the remaining at $3 blinds or $2 plo. I had multiple large upswings but I honestly don’t feel like looking and the loses are so much easier to remember than the winnings. At one point in June or July, I was winning over 11bb/hr through like 600 hours.

I had a month where I won 15k (February) and one where I lost 14k (Sep). Since the -14k month in September, it’s been an arduous slog through the bowels of mental poker hell to attempt to get back to winning ways. It’s involved looking, relooking and re-relooking at ways I’m playing spots.

I don’t believe, through 1100 hours this past year, that my true winrate is showing. I play in a fairly large player pool (almost 50 tables some nights), and I can tell you many things the regs do wrong and how to beat them. I can basically tell you where my edge is against 7 or 8 of the players at any table at any time, or if I don’t have one because they are just better than me. I’m not sure a true winrate is conceivable at live nl holdem. It’s just too slow of a game and we and our opponents do not have infinite time to play.

All this is effectively to say that when everything is going well, poker is an amazing game, and when everything is going poorly, poker is a mother****er

My live 1/3 NL 2022 Stats and Giraffe:





After getting lol hours in the Coronaids years of 2020/2021, I bounced back with a 415 hour year (which had 1.5 months of Coronaids closures at the beginning of the year). Got back in line with my 2018/2019 winrates (of $21.35/hr and $22.08/hr). Would have snap accepted this winrate at the beginning of the year, and will snap accept it again for 2023. Always kinda surprised that my nitty-as-**** method still seems to ship at this rate (which is pretty much in line with my overall winrate at my 5506.5 hour mark of live 1/3 NL).

As always, I'm quite trepidatious of the upcoming year. The rake has recently gone up again in our game (10% now maxed at $9) and there's a very good chance it will increase yet again this year. Also a rumour that they will introduce a high hand board this year, so likely another $1 drop on top of the already existing $1 BBJ drop. My overall winrate hasn't been below $20/hour since September 27, 2011, but if I ship a poor single digit winrate year like I did in 2015/2017, I'll get there this year. But really it's just a matter of time.

Also very good chance moving forward that I'll only get in 450 hour years (instead of my typical 550 hour years) as I'm balancing out my weekend poker days a bit healthier. 10 - 12 hour sessions (the norm before) are going to be unlikely, and instead I'll usually be capping at 8 hours so I can get home, cook a healthier dinner than fast food, and hang out with the wife and puppy.

GcluelessnitpokernoobG

I feel you on the rake. Encore Boston in the same shape. Yup. I beat a $10 rake at 1/3 this year. Woo hoo! Moving up to 2/5 to minimize the continued damage is in the works for 2023!

Every year there seems to be a new bunch of in-between-job guys attempting to make a go of a livable wage in our 1/3 NL game. I always wonder how long they will last. There's one guy that's currently been doing it for quite a while, and he's outlasted the guy before him who had being doing it for quite a while (but I haven't seen in over half a dozen years). But my guess is that there is a crapload of broken bodies left behind, all of whom got off to a great start over lol 1000 hour sample sizes, only to eventually be eaten up by this game.

Impressive volume for a rec with a family, good luck Johnny!

GcluelessfittingpokerintolifenoobG

I know right where you're at, respect to you for it. One thing that helps me a tiny bit is a saying ''you never know what tomorrow will bring''

glllllll

Ran great in 2022.

$22,994 over 588 hours at $1/2.

$39.10 an hour.

I expect that will come down significantly in 2023. A couple of reg whales have pretty much cut me off from any action. Still amazes me that anyone can donk off $10k in a month at $1/2. I guess $10K is peanuts to some people.

The surest way of figuring out if you’re a winning player is…to win money. So if you’re still unsure after 200 hours, 300 hours, 500 hours…

I’d say…thank you? We appreciate you for keep trying to find out if you are a winning player. Keep playing and keep asking!

What’s a reasonable bankroll and/or session roll playing 5T?

I have a full-time job, so not playing poker strictly for the money. The max I can play is twice a week and probably wouldn’t play more than 500 hours in a year.

I’ve beaten $2-5. I have a separate working BR of roughly 15k and can add if I need to. My current stop loss at $2-5 is 2k. My goal for the year is to play some 5T, and really see where my game is. I’m thinking 3k per session is enough.

Not all 5-T are the same for example bellagio 5-T is max 1500 while wynn 5-10 is uncapped or texas has mts 5-10.

In general 15k is a good br for 2-5, i’d say you can take shots at 5-10 buyin 1500 at 30k and move down once your at 20k, this is obviously considering you have a job and are not basing all your income on poker.

I'm primarily playing for the love of the game and of course to make some money, but it's not the top priority. I dedicated 4-5 years to working on my finances/career, thankfully that is in good standing right now so I can focus a little bit more on poker this year.

1.5-2k buy-in is what I am thinking about. Losing 2k and adding on for 1k isn't all that appealing so to start off with I'll try 1.5k and evaluate from there. The 5T games in my areas are uncapped.

Bank roll is a moatly useless concept for someone who can replenish their roll and is a winning player. The only thing a "bankroll" does for someone who has external income they can out into poker is it determines how long they have to go between losing sessions.

But 15 of your average buy ins should get you through your typically down swings if you're an otherwise winning player

There is a psychological aspect to having a bank roll as a part time player too. Are you willing to push a thin advantage by semi-bluffing 10% of your bankroll? How about 2%?

If its uncapped and your buyin 1500 then i suggest finding a 5T where most people aren’t straddling.

Main motivation for a rec player who wants to move into the biggest game is bragging rights.

The part they can't see about moving up is whether their ego will allow them to move back down.

This makes sense.


I lean toward risk-neutral more so than being risk aversed. I like to think I'll be willing to push a thin advantage, especially if I trust my read. But, keeping my ego in check, I don't want to say "F yea I'll push that edge at the cost of losing 10% of my BR!" Pushing a 2% advantage is no problem.



sounds good.



I wouldn't be playing 5T every time, I don't believe they run every day in my area so I'll have to play $2-5.




Thank you for all the responses.

As long as you are willing to leave 15 minutes in to a session when you are sitting at the best table you've been at in 15 months because you ran bad in a couple hands.

Ya can't play if ya run out of money

Every table is good 2/5 and below so I don't agree with this comment even though I read it a lot. The offset of a good table is the player tilting 2 BI down and don't give me that "I never tilt" bs cause usually the biggest tilters are the ones that have fooled themselves into thinking garbage plays when they are down are actually passable.

We aren't talking about 2/5 we are talking about 5/T.

Exactly. I was pointing out your stop loss (and really overall bankroll) might be a bit low. I don't see any problems shot taking but just realize you might bet quickly slapped back down to 2/5 licking your wounds a few times before you stick.

I have had many 20 hour losing samples.

This wasn't in situations where I was against good players. This was in situations where I was the only pro at the table and people were playing their cards without looking and on a KQJT rainbow turn someone jams and not one but two players call with 9x because they can't fold a straight.

multiple 20 hour losing stretches against those players