An El D / etc. (i.e. Las Vegas Poker Player Vlogs thread, anyone?) inspired listing of $1000+ results in my own sample size. Can also check out post#25593 where I break down my results via a histogram.

All 1/3 NL where I'm currently sitting at 6.89 bb/hr over 5,315 hours over 676 sessions.

Included all dates and session lengths.

Note that the maximum BI in my game (where I've put in 95%+ of my hours) from 2010 thru ~late 2018 was $300 and since then it has been $400 (although I had already gone to my Super Nit method in early 2017 of only BIing for $200 myself anyways).

$2218 (July 21, 2013 over 10:20 hours)
$1598 (January 27, 2013 over 11:55 hours)
$1561 (December 6, 2013 over 6:40 hours)
$1537 (April 19, 2019 over 10:35 hours)
$1500 (October 8, 2016 over 11:35 hours)
$1492 (July 16, 2013 over 6:45 hours)
$1455 (February 7, 2016 over 11:05 hours)
$1448 (August 25, 2013 over 9:25 hours)
$1433 (December 20, 2011 over 5:30 hours)
$1404 (February 16, 2014 over 9:50 hours)
$1364 (December 30, 2012 over 9:10 hours)
$1360 (April 6, 2014 over 10:00 hours)
$1302 (December 6, 2014 over 9:15 hours)
$1299 (October 28, 2012 over 11:45 hours)
$1256 (April 17, 2016 over 10:15 hours)
$1223 (December 9, 2012 over 12:00 hours)
$1213 (August 6, 2012 over 11:15 hours)
$1213 (September 10, 2012 over 6:20 hours)
$1203 (November 22, 2014 over 9:25 hours)
$1174 (December 3, 2021 over 7:45 hours)
$1164 (November 27, 2018 over 5:25 hours)
$1126 (December 30, 2012 over 11:00 hours)
$1112 (January 9, 2018 over 8:20 hours)
$1091 (January 24, 2016 over 10:45 hours)
$1019 (October 8, 2013 over 6:30 hours)
$1011 (October 27, 2016 over 6:25 hours)

For comparison, the $1000+ losses:

-$1200 (June 27, 2011 over 6:20 hours)
-$1013 (March 8, 2015 over 9:25 hours)

So 26 $1000+ wins in 676 sessions (3.8%) and 2 $1000+ losses (0.3%).

As far as $2000+ wins, those are hard for me to book, with just the 1 in 676 sessions (0.1%), noting that is actually the only win I've booked over $1600. Oddly enough, unlike my big losing sessions, I have zero recollection of this session whatsoever. Not surprising considering the low variance style I play, but I would think $2000+ wins would be very difficult for even higher variance winning players to book in a capped BI game.

As I say, I switched to my Super Nit method in 2017 (not a massive tweak to my game, but tweaked enough to make a difference). Have only booked 4/26 (15%) in that time, whereas the 22/26 (85%) occurred in 2016-. You could argue the tweak in method is responsible for this. But I would actually argue more of it has to do with mostly worse game conditions as well as simple variance.

19/26 (73%) has me playing a "longer" type session (almost always on a weekend or a day off / holiday) versus 7/26 (27%) has me playing a "shorter" type session (almost always on a weekday after work). Unlike El D, I'm fairly convinced the length of session doesn't really have much affect on the amount of money won, at least compared to the overall results (versus, say, had I split these sessions into smaller sessions). My guess is that I most likely just went on a run good over a stretch of time. There is an argument that playing longer allows you to build to deeper stacks and play deeper stack poker against terrible opponents and take huge advantage, but I highly doubt this really came into play (doesn't really fit my method and I probably just won a bunch of small/medium sized pots instead of doing some crazy double up super deep). There is also an argument that the big win is indicating the game we are sitting in is insanely good and we should continuing sitting in it, but much more likely it was just a run-of-the-mill (but still good) game where I just ran super hot. IMO.

ETA: Regarding sitting in a game while you're up / leaving while you're down, while I don't believe this has any affect on my results, I would say do whatever you want. I also don't think lacing up a particular skate first / not stepping on the baseline on the way out to the pitchers mound / etc. has any affect whatsoever for me either. But you do whatever you think helps, and it probably will in some manner.

GcluelessstatsnoobG

Last year in 545 hours I made $25.18 p/h.

This year, (I think) I am running absolutely horribly and my win rate has plummeted to $2.20 p/h in 745 hours of live play.

The hours are spent mostly at the Wynn, Aria and Bellagio.

This year I’ve ran quite poorly in big hands.
I take notes on all medium plus pots and have some interesting notes.

FYI I don’t slow play.

AA has been a small winner $120
KK has been a small winner $490
QQ, JJ has been losers with almost $1500

One (maybe) crazy to believe note is this year I have lost with every single 3bet pot where I made it at least $45 preflop and the action past the flop stage. Overwhelming majority was people flopping sets, two pairs or turning or rivering trips.

I have won one KK > AA and lost three AA<KK. I won $300 and all three losses were more than $300 with one of them being almost $600.

More importantly I am a major loser with sets. Interestingly, I have never flopped a set and won when I called $25 or more preflop this year. Overall I have lost set over set 4 times (22 vs 99 just yesterday) and never won with set over set.

I haven’t added the totals but I have lost countless times with sets when board ran runner runner one card straight or flushes.

I am considered a tight player btw.

Finally, perhaps a natural conclusion but I have had 3 (I believe) wins ALL year that was over $600 which to me is mind blowing. And my losses have been big.

The point is with all due respect to some people, if you think small number of hours mean much you are wrong.

Note: There could be small mistakes but overall picture should be correct.


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Are you trying to say my current win rate after 70 hours of $1-$2 is in fact NOT sustainable???

Naw, in your case, you're good.
It's more general advice. But obv your 70 hours aren't general, they are specific to you.

That is pretty sweet! Nice job regardless of the variance.


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Yup, kinda drastic differences but at least you're still winning in both samples!

In my 1/3 NL game my best streak was a 1014 hour sample at $38.37/hr... followed almost immediately by a 1307 hour sample at $11.90/hr (second sample winrate being just 31% of first sample winrate). So lol @ 1000 hour samples sizes, imo.

You probably ran very hot over the 545 hours and a lot cooler over the last 745 hours and your "true" winrate is somewhere in between (but who knows where exactly).

Ggoodluckhandlingthevariance!G

295 hours since March. A mix of 2/3, 3/5, & a splash of 5/10 NL.
$15,119 profit.
$51.22/hr.
Cashed 37/58 (63%)

Would like to get to 500 hours by the end of the year. Should be easier in the winter months when work slows.

It's not always the case but I would say the majority of the times I am up a lot I am playing good and when I am stuck I am about to play worse. I only bring 2 buyins with me and no credit cards which creates a scenario in my head where I protect my chips even more on my 2nd buy cause I know I am out the door if I don't.



13 sessions / 7 winning
55.25 hours played
+1237 profit

Had 4 separate occasions where the loosest player at the table had a huge hand on their button straddle and ended up stacking me with a decent 2nd best hand this month which is super unlucky. Had that 1k pot not go my way either. A "bad" 8bb/hr month.

I’m sure this has been discussed in 26k posts but-

What is a reasonable hourly at deeper buy in games, for example a 2/3 with 300-1k buy in, assuming always buying in for max?

The general consensus is 10bb/hr is very very good, and I think that applies well to games that have buy in caps of like 150-200bb. If a majority of the table actually buys in for 333bb, and that money is legit in play, I could understand if the win rate skewed higher than 10bb, maybe 12-13bb if I was just ballparking it.

10bb an hour is what you strive for in live poker - but more can be achieved if you are ether very good or table select. It's also possible to make much more than that for an extended period of time especially if you are on a pro-longed heater. I've done 20bb an hour for half a year before going on a pro-longed downswing to bring me back to 8-10bb an hour.

I did about $35 an hour at my 1/3 500 cap game. At a 1k cap you can do better if your players are pretty bad. I would say up to $40-$50 depending on the rake. If the rake is the standard 5+2 than $40 isn't out of the question. If you have a timed rake you can do much better. Also if you get access to very good games like in new orleans or texas you can do up to $50 assuming you have a revolving door of high action donks that are sitting deep.

Generally though - if you want to take poker serious - you want to move up to 2/5 as fast as possible, and only play 1/3 if the table is really good. Running hot in a good 2/5 game will get you a nice boost to your bankroll. When I was playing 2/5 only I was getting upwards of $60 an hour which is quite a bit better than the 1/3. You have some tougher villains and less table selection but you can always move down if the game is bad. The rake just doesn't kill you as much as you will be over the $50 threshold in most pots.

The general consensus is a bit like the idea that you ought be drinking 8 glasses of water per day. It's been repeated so often that it's considered fact, but no serious proof has been offered.

Moreover, one would think that as the player pool changes, the attainable win rates would change. I know that when my local casinos opened 8 years ago, the pool was very soft, but games became much harder when there 3-4 Argie grinders at my tables. How can 10bb/100 be the same standard for both situations?

What kind of roll do people play off of?

I recently started playing live. I was winning at 10z and 25nl reg tables online.

The rake at my home casino is 10% $15 cap. For that reason I try to avoid playing the regular 1/3 game ($300 buyin cap) and instead play 2/5 and 1/3 on match the stack nights.

I thought the 1/3 was unbeatable, but it definitely is beatable on some soft tables, and some days I think I am better bumhunting 1/3 when the (usually one table) of 2/5 is tough.

I put together a roll of $20,000 when I started which is 40BI for 2/5. I am at 110 hours so far and at $25/hr.

I am now going out west to Calgary for a couple months, where there is 5 NLHE rooms and much lower rake and action. I have heard that you can't often find a 2/5 game, but that the 1/3 in Calgary play like 2/5. I will put in significantly more hours than usual back home. I put in 110 hours since May, but will probably put in 20-35 each week while there.

The one room I will play alot always has a match on a 1/3. I am starting to think my roll (which is about 22k now) is not that big.

I play on buying in for around ~700. This allows me to be 100bb when straddle is on, and I have $100 room to lose some small pots before rebuying. I could buy in deeper, but I like being 100-300bb deep as it allows me to get in QQ+,AK preflop more comfortably.

I know it might be a bit of a leak to think that though. Should I just work on my deepstack game and always match the fish, or is ~700 BI good with my roll size?

Good points,and i will also add that in order to achieve the top longtern winrates like 10 bb or even more you need to absolutely be a crusher. Your game really needs to be well calibrated,no tilt issues or mental game blocks.

For most players i think its more realistic to aim for the 6-8 bb pr hour winrate to be honest. Its a small small percentage of players that actually wins 10-12 bb pr hour longterm.

22k roll is plenty for this game. You do seem to have some mental leaks as mentioned regarding buyins "so you comfortably can stackoff with QQ and AK". That is obviously not a good reason to choose a buyinsize.

I would keep playing to your strengths though (buyin for 700) as standard if that is your comfortzone. But keep challenging yourself at the same time and keep growing. If things are going well start to buyin for 1000 for example,and slowly keep working on your deepstack game.

Yes, definitely a mental game leak. I am still coming to terms with playing for hundreds and thousands of dollars in one hand after mostly playing microstakes. And I am in a solid financial position that if that 22k disappeared from my account I wouldn't stress.

I have done a lot of other mental game work and don't tilt, but still adjusting to live.

Do you have much live deepstack experience with good results? Cuz if not, it is possible that you might be the fish in the game.

I'm unclear how the match-the-stack works. Can you match the biggest stack at any time? Or only when first initially BIing for the game? Or BIing after busting?

I would suggest BIing small (even less than 100bb to make it super simple) and then simply evaluate the game as you go. If the game looks massively fish filled with no one having any clue what they are doing deep, then hopefully you have the option of adding on whenever you want. If the game looks a lot tougher than what you expected, you'll probably be relieved you're sitting on a shorter stack (until things change and you can re-evaluate again).

GcluelessstampedepokernoobG

In the match the stack games here in TX you can just match the biggest stack at the table at any given time. It does create weird multiway spots with stacks ranging from 25bb to 1000bb at the same table.

If you play 1,000 hours and beat your $1/2 game at 5BB/Hour, what can you expect in terms of downswings?
What would be the biggest downswing?
How many $1,000+ downswings would you have over 1,000 hours?

I would not worry about stuff u cant control like size and number of downswings over a given arbitrary time frame

I would personally focus on important stuff that you can control: play quality, volume, improvement of your skillset.

5bb/hr is cool but there is MASSIVE room for improvement.

I'm likely in the 8-10BB range.....but still MASSIVE room for improvement.

I threw out my old poker records and just started playing again. I'm trying to remember what the swings were like just to brace for rough waters mentally and emotionally.

You can easily expect multiple 1000 bucks+ downswings during any given 1000 hour sample at 1/2. Especially if you play in actionpacked games and is pushing edges aggressively.

Besides that i agree with Squid. Keep your focus on the variables you can control,and work through the downswings when they come.

1000$ downswings would be very common, 2000$ downswings fairly common as well. I wouldn't be surprised of even a bigger one either during a 1000 hour time frame.

And it depends on the average table conditions and your playing style as well, 5bb/h could come from playing really nitty or playing aggressively as well. A nit would have smaller and less common downswings than a loose, aggressive player with the same winrate.

In the end, you should be adequately bankrolled to survive any variance related downswing. Especially if you play live and 1/2 is the smallest stake available, so you can't move down when your BR is smaller due to downswings.

For me, in my 5321 hour sample size at 1/3 NL while winning at 6.87 bb/hr, a quick check of my results (i.e. I think I've got this right) shows my biggest downswings have been: 955bb, 955bb, 770bb, 495bb and 494bb. So looks like I average a ~500bb+ downswing every ~1000 hours or so.

But it will likely also depend greatly on your style (I play an extremely nitty style) as well as your game conditions (especially stack sizes, noting that all of my downswings occurred while our game was capped at a 100bb BI).

GcluelessdownswingnoobG

it's really not a question that can be answered. everyone can give you their stats, but that doesn't really translate to anything with you.

obligatory stats:

the game i have the most hours at is 2/5, so i'll use that.
1500 hours
6+ bb/hr

three 5k downswings
two 7k downswings


as i've started playing more 10/10 lately, the downswings are bigger, thus more fun. currently -10k in the last 6 days.