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Old 08-19-2021, 11:07 AM   #25576
DonkeyCopter
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
300 hours isnt telling anything, and can be skewed very hard either way by shortterm variance- i am sure you know that but just making it clear.
Of course.

GG, the game rakes $20 off of each players first buyin to cover house expenses. That’s all.
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Old 08-19-2021, 11:14 AM   #25577
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
GG, the game rakes $20 off of each players first buyin to cover house expenses. That’s all.
Yeah, pretty sweet.

So if you put in a 4 hour session, that's $5/hr, which would probably be something similar to a poker room raking a maximum $1 (or perhaps closer to $0?) + $1 BBJ drop + $1 tip. Disgusting how much actually goes down the tubes in a poker room environment!

Still, awesome results!

Gplaynice,soundslikegoldmineconditionsG
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Old 08-19-2021, 12:42 PM   #25578
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

sweet giraffe donkeycopter. Well done and great job implamenting the DGAF principals of keeping it fun and not trying to squeeze out every ounce of ev which does obviously doesnt matter based on your w/r cuz u are crushing it!

congrats
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Old 08-19-2021, 02:38 PM   #25579
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
sweet giraffe donkeycopter. Well done and great job implamenting the DGAF principals of keeping it fun and not trying to squeeze out every ounce of ev which does obviously doesnt matter based on your w/r cuz u are crushing it!

congrats
Can someone please refer me to this DGAF thread/post that’s been mentioned a few times here recently? I checked the best of thread but couldn’t find it. Thnx
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Old 08-19-2021, 04:32 PM   #25580
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ralphykid67 View Post
Can someone please refer me to this DGAF thread/post that’s been mentioned a few times here recently? I checked the best of thread but couldn’t find it. Thnx
It got removed. DGAF has a podcast and a website where he's reposted all of it. Just search DGAF sessions on your pod provider and he talks about his website info.

Squid, thank you. You're a legend.
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Old 08-19-2021, 07:07 PM   #25581
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Awesome graph Donkey - looks like you found a great game and crushing that hard for that long while still being invited back is a massive skill on its own. Nice work!
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Old 08-19-2021, 07:48 PM   #25582
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Congrats Donkey
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Old 08-20-2021, 01:33 AM   #25583
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Yeah, pretty sweet.

So if you put in a 4 hour session, that's $5/hr, which would probably be something similar to a poker room raking a maximum $1 (or perhaps closer to $0?) + $1 BBJ drop + $1 tip. Disgusting how much actually goes down the tubes in a poker room environment!

Still, awesome results!

Gplaynice,soundslikegoldmineconditionsG
$20 x 9 players = $180.

$8 per hand x 30 hands per hour = $240 rake/jackpot.

Most rooms rake/JP drop more in an hour than that room does for a whole night.

If the private game runs 5 hours in every one of his sessions, it is literally leaving about $1,000 on the table every session when compared to a typical card room.

~1,800 hours in that timespan is roughly 360 such sessions, or $360,000 that the card room did not rake/jp from the player.

In other words, relative to an average casino reg, no one would really have to lose nearly as much money for Donkey to achieve that WR.

It's a decent accomplishment, but if you account for rake, drop, tip...the WR would be much much lower. Just like your WR would be much higher if you play in a similar game.
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Old 08-20-2021, 09:41 AM   #25584
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tanqueray View Post
$20 x 9 players = $180.

$8 per hand x 30 hands per hour = $240 rake/jackpot.

Most rooms rake/JP drop more in an hour than that room does for a whole night.

If the private game runs 5 hours in every one of his sessions, it is literally leaving about $1,000 on the table every session when compared to a typical card room.

~1,800 hours in that timespan is roughly 360 such sessions, or $360,000 that the card room did not rake/jp from the player.

In other words, relative to an average casino reg, no one would really have to lose nearly as much money for Donkey to achieve that WR.

It's a decent accomplishment, but if you account for rake, drop, tip...the WR would be much much lower. Just like your WR would be much higher if you play in a similar game.
Average session length is 5.4 hours and average number of hands per hour is 24.4 based on the 20 hour sample I kept track of.

The other factor is this game plays much bigger than a typical 1/3 $300 max because no one leaves when they bust over those 5.4 hour sessions, or when they're winning. This means more money stays on the table compared to casino game or other conditions. 53/337 sessions in my 1/3 sample, I've won or lost over $1000. The game plays closer to a 2/5 I think despite the $300 max.

In my ~300 hours of casino 1/3 or 2/5, I'm not paying $8/hand rake. Most of those hours are at Bellagio or Aria. These days I'm paying time rake in casino games at 5/10, but I didn't include those results in the original post.

All to say, for sure favorable rake and tip conditions have a big impact, especially when compared to the typical "professionally run" homegame raking $10 or more per hand plus tips.
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Old 08-20-2021, 11:11 AM   #25585
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My guesstimate is that every $1 of rake costs us ~about 1 bb/hr off our winrate. I'm guessing this guesstimate is fairly accurately as the maximum rake remains small (as most pots reach that rake) but gets slightly less accurate as the maximum rake increases (as not as many pots reach that rake). Guesstimate perhaps (?) may get less accurate as stacks increase and becomes a much more deepstacked game (where I don't think rake will have as much an overall affect, although it's possible I'm wrong on that as it is still the same amount of money taken out of play?).

So if DC's average session is 5.4 hours, and he won an average of just 2 pots an hour, in a typical casino environment he'd be giving $1 BBJ + $1 tip x 2 pots/hr x 5.4 hours = $21.6, so about what he's paying now (i.e. which would be equivalent to playing in a casino game with $0 rake, although you could argue the $1 BBJ is a deferred cost that he's supposed to eventually partially recoup later). So if you compared it to a maximum $8 raked (~typical for 1/3 NL?), my guesstimate would have his winrate of ~18 bb/hr dropped to about ~10 bb/hr (obviously I could be off by a bb or so either way, kinda just spitballing here). A puke-inducing reduction, although still an overall crushing accomplishment, imo.

Gkeepyourmoneytreewellwatered,imoG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 08-20-2021 at 11:16 AM.
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Old 09-06-2021, 06:44 PM   #25586
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I hope this is an appropriate place to post these questions. I don’t post much at all.
I would like to know what a typical winning player’s sessions logged at 1/2 commonly look like. Particularly players who are winning near the 10 big blinds an hour mark.
I’m wondering if most winners at this rate have a similar “look” to their wins & losses that may give insight into a most commonly effective style. I suppose it’s possible that they will each have styles of winning that are equally represented but I suspect most winners will have a similar look. Of coarse this probably doesn’t mean there is only one way to maintain this rate but I think its an interesting clue.
Do these players win most sessions for modest amounts & lose very few for modest amounts? Do they lose half the time for an average of a buy-in but then win very large amounts in their winning sessions? Do their sessions play out pretty break even but with occasional windfall sessions? (Please don’t tell me “it’s one big session!”) I think you can get the idea.
I’m also curious how these winning styles change at higher stakes if at all.
I think many players at this level fixate on win rates because it’s the closest thing to a metric to measure how well they may be playing. Not so much as a factor for figuring out bankroll management or fantasizing how rich they’re going to get!
On a side note about bankroll size. At these beginning levels of 1/2 for live playing, normally the lowest you’ll be able to play, wouldn’t it make more sense to talk in terms of a “poker budget” than a bankroll?
Your a average 1/2 player is never losing a bankroll, going broke, & getting a real job never to play again. At 1/2 isn’t it really just a bankroll that if you lose, you wait a few weeks for some extra cash & play again? There are no lower stakes to go to rebuild & avoid “going broke”. Unless people are trying to quit their jobs & live on 1/2 which seems crazy to me. I just assumed most 1/2 players have other income & may aspire to move up & then possibly live only on poker, in which your 2/5 or 5/10 bankroll actually matters. Just a thought.
Thanks for any input!
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Old 09-06-2021, 07:02 PM   #25587
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey Clide,

My girlfriend Street Poker Chick (SPC) both have a pretty big sample of 2/5. My w/r is a bit higher than hers but I think shes better at poker than I am - we both win over 10bb/hr

She plays a more Laggy style than I do

we both win about 2/3 of our sessions
our big wins dwarf our big losses. Both of us believe strongly in playing longer when we have that winning image and when we are winning we tend to play longer.
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Old 09-06-2021, 07:03 PM   #25588
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I don't think you're going to get a clear trend on session types, largely because session lengths vary so widely among players. Further, game styles with very different standard deviations can have similar overall expectations.
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Old 09-06-2021, 07:37 PM   #25589
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Clide: 1/2 stats can be deceiving, Some 1/2's are home games (big difference). Some 1/2's have large buyins/match the stack, etc.

Squid said it best/ ~65% winrate, big wins>>>big losses. Different styles win big.
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Old 09-06-2021, 07:52 PM   #25590
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Thanks Squid, thats just the kind of sample I was wondering about. I wonder if other 1/2 winners at this rate have a similar experience.
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Old 09-06-2021, 08:01 PM   #25591
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Garick, Thanks for the input.

I’m not expecting it to be an exact science. With so much of poker result interpretations being so ambiguous and subjective, I’m just looking for some clues to glean some insight.
I think in general, just considering session to session should give an idea in spite of some outlying session lengths.
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Old 09-06-2021, 08:20 PM   #25592
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crsseyed View Post
Clide: 1/2 stats can be deceiving, Some 1/2's are home games (big difference). Some 1/2's have large buyins/match the stack, etc.

Squid said it best/ ~65% winrate, big wins>>>big losses. Different styles win big.
Im just considering live casino 1/2 games 9-10 handed.
I think you are right that many things go into how big a game really is but I think getting into the weeds on that will just lead down a rabbit hole. I think as experienced poker players most on this forum are likely to be, we can make some general assumptions about what a live casino 1/2 game will typically be. Enough of these games will be enough alike that I believe we can learn some things from that information in spite of the outliers. After all, accepted win rates are based on some of these same generalizations.
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Old 09-06-2021, 10:26 PM   #25593
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Well, if you search this thread, there have definitely been discussions of percentage of winning sessions. IDK if there are also some of win/loss size ratios.
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Old 09-07-2021, 12:35 PM   #25594
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have not seen too much detailed statistical analysis of session length/result ITT.

When I'd looked at my results I had something that was mostly normally distributed with a few "buy in sized" artifacts.

This is from ~1000 sessions and probably 3000 hours or so (don't remember exactly, it's from a few year ago), all $1/2:

The spikes are going busto from some $100 BI increment. There are some similar spikes at cashout from a combination of playing extra hands and tipping out the dealer whatever random extra white chips I had. The WR here isn't super great, but it's a lot more data than I typically see at this stake.

Clide: Yes, you're right about thinking in terms of a 'budget' instead of a bankroll to start. Ideally you'd want to have a fund that you can play out of continuously and never need to "pay in" to play. But when you're first starting out you don't need to save up $4k to sit down at $1/2. Set aside about $1000 so you're not getting tapped out and running to the ATM after 2 busts, and start playing. Track your sessions and your spending, then see where you are.
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Old 09-07-2021, 02:56 PM   #25595
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances



About 2500 hours of 1|2. Table winnings only (promos/comps excluded). 11BB/h for the sample. If a higher resolution would be interesting I can adjust it.
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Old 09-07-2021, 05:12 PM   #25596
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2500 hours in 1/2 playing in Florida…are you allergic to money or something?
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Old 09-07-2021, 06:23 PM   #25597
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tanqueray View Post
2500 hours in 1/2 playing in Florida…are you allergic to money or something?
Not sure what this means. Are you criticizing me for not playing higher stakes?
I also have over 2k hours at 2|5 in Florida. About half my 1|2 hours are in MI and about half are in FL.

It was an "easy" $30/h (after adding promos bad in) when I was having a hard time for reasons I don't want to disclose to strangers. It wasn't the primary reason but there would have been way less 1|2 hours if casinos closing due to covid.
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Old 09-07-2021, 07:42 PM   #25598
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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post


About 2500 hours of 1|2. Table winnings only (promos/comps excluded). 11BB/h for the sample. If a higher resolution would be interesting I can adjust it.
Brown, this is great! Thanks
Im not sure what the numbers at the bottom of the graph mean. I understand they represent 100bb but I don’t understand the designations of (2,3] etc.
Can you please explain? Sorry if it should be obvious :/
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Old 09-07-2021, 07:52 PM   #25599
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Think I got it.
1 to 2
2 to 3

(1,2]
(2,3]
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Old 09-07-2021, 08:47 PM   #25600
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They are intervals. A parenthesis means the range doesn't include that endpoint and a bracket means it does. I think this meaning is universal in math but I'm not sure. It's not important at all but it would bother me if that information weren't included.

If you missed it the units are in 100BB "buyins."
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