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Old 07-26-2021, 11:54 PM   #25551
squid face
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Mr Drink,

I have a pretty strong online background and I transitioned to live after BF and win quite a bit. If you are playing 6 max online and are trying to play live it will turn you into a spew monkey. the dynamics are not there. Your skillset lies in the 100bb play range. I personally would humble up and only buy in for 100 bigs for your first several hundred hours.

my longest b/e stretch is a little over 200hrs - w/r 11bb/hr
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Old 07-27-2021, 11:46 AM   #25552
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Big_Drink View Post
Let me know if you have any thoughts on my plan or if there are any fellow weekend warriors out there. Through research it seems like 1000 hours is a the sample size to determine win rate, that will take me a couple years!

Bonus question: I know this is a loaded question. But since I'm in 90hr breakeven stretch, how long do these last for winning players (say 5BB/hr winners)?
I'm also a ~weekend warrior, typically putting in just ~550 hours per year at 1/3 NL. 6.87 bb/hr over 4960 hours (and holding, haven't played a hand since our rooms closed March 2020 and they've yet to re-open).

1000 hours might not mean as much as you think. My best 1000+ hour stretch is a full 3x better than my worse 1000+ hour stretch. This may also have something to do with only getting in ~550 hours per year, where your game/pool/conditions/etc. will evolve over the years and this will be reflected (eventually) in your results.

I quickly eyeballed my giraffe for what looked like my worst breakeven stretches. Most of these were probably going into a downswing and then digging out, but some are just stretches of banging my head into the felt.

$405 over 296 hours
$480 over 243 hours
$500 over 203 hours
-$468 over 184 hours
$81 over 142 hours
$300 over 139 hours
-$1 over 105 hours (my whole 2020, lol)

Super fun times when you're only getting in ~550 hours per year, where these stretches are 1/3 to 1/2 of your year. So something to look forward to as a weekend warrior.

Ggoodluck!G
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Old 07-27-2021, 02:35 PM   #25553
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Squid and GG, y'all are makin me jealous. I'm about 7bb/hr over my last 3.2k hrs. I had two 500hr BE stretches in that time which included about 250hrs of continuous losses within them. Though I guess my last 500hr BE stretch isn't as bad as it sounds because I took some hits from 5/10, then moved down to 5/5 and rebuilt, and had a another rough spell when going back up to 5/10, so measured in big-blinds as opposed to dollars, it's not as bad. Also my games go through Euro infestation periods which drops winrate leading to longer bad stretches.

I guess all I'm saying is live poker is slow. There's only so much you can do when averaging 30hands/hr. In regards to stack depth, live is way shallower than online. 100bb online with 2.5x opens and mostly HU or 3 way pots is maybe like 200bb live where standard opens are 4x+ and there's lots of 4-5way pots.
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Old 07-27-2021, 02:42 PM   #25554
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer View Post
I guess all I'm saying is live poker is slow. There's only so much you can do when averaging 30hands/hr.
+1

The more hours you accumulate (and it's taken me a decade to accumulate my 5K, which is obviously lolable when compared to someone putting in pro hours), the more you realize what a lol sample size it really is (especially when comparing various lol "big" sample sizes within them).

ETA: Inb4 I lose $102K over my next 5K hours and it turns out I'm a breakeven player after all.

Ggoodlucktousall,imoG
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Old 07-27-2021, 04:53 PM   #25555
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This thread helps me out in rough patches to realize I am not alone. When I'm on 4-5 losing sessions in a row. Driving to the casino every weekend to fold for hours. Watching bad play after bad play be rewarded. Missing every flop and every draw. Losing every significant pot I enter.

I come to this thread to remind myself that variance is real AF and it's all a big joke.

GL out there.
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Old 07-27-2021, 05:27 PM   #25556
gobbledygeek
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Wish I could edit my post above, but if I total those breakeven stretch numbers all together (which are admittedly all cherry picked for maximum lol's), that means I've spent a full 1/4 of my poker playing time at the 1/3 NL table in stretches where I'm winning not quite $1 per hour. Just goes to show that a huge percentage of the time we're just treading water trying to keep from drowning while waiting for something good to happen.

Glol@thelongtermG
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Old 07-27-2021, 08:35 PM   #25557
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
Mr Drink,

I have a pretty strong online background and I transitioned to live after BF and win quite a bit. If you are playing 6 max online and are trying to play live it will turn you into a spew monkey. the dynamics are not there. Your skillset lies in the 100bb play range. I personally would humble up and only buy in for 100 bigs for your first several hundred hours.

my longest b/e stretch is a little over 200hrs - w/r 11bb/hr
Appreciate the insight and that is a good point. Guess I was trying to hedge against being blinded down and go under 100BB. My current stop loss is to bring three buy-ins with me and leave if I ever fall below 100BB. I think I've done an okay job so far understanding that ranges are more heavily weighted towards value. Although I had a light call down last session that i wish I could take back. I've also done some balancing such as checking back a strong hand which is unnecessary vs. non thinking players. I feel like the more I play the more I will get used to the dynamics of live play.
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Old 07-27-2021, 08:40 PM   #25558
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm also a ~weekend warrior, typically putting in just ~550 hours per year at 1/3 NL. 6.87 bb/hr over 4960 hours (and holding, haven't played a hand since our rooms closed March 2020 and they've yet to re-open).

1000 hours might not mean as much as you think. My best 1000+ hour stretch is a full 3x better than my worse 1000+ hour stretch. This may also have something to do with only getting in ~550 hours per year, where your game/pool/conditions/etc. will evolve over the years and this will be reflected (eventually) in your results.

I quickly eyeballed my giraffe for what looked like my worst breakeven stretches. Most of these were probably going into a downswing and then digging out, but some are just stretches of banging my head into the felt.

$405 over 296 hours
$480 over 243 hours
$500 over 203 hours
-$468 over 184 hours
$81 over 142 hours
$300 over 139 hours
-$1 over 105 hours (my whole 2020, lol)

Super fun times when you're only getting in ~550 hours per year, where these stretches are 1/3 to 1/2 of your year. So something to look forward to as a weekend warrior.

Ggoodluck!G
The hours you put in per year is what I was estimating I could do so thank you for sharing. That's insane that your 1000 hour stretches have such different results. I better brace myself for what I have coming!
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Old 08-17-2021, 01:07 PM   #25559
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What to Expect from Downswings? (# of Buyins)

I've been playing a lot of live poker this year. Mostly 2/2.

I usually do pretty good because the games are so soft. However, my last 8 sessions have been horrible. I'm down about 14 buyins. Now, admittedly there's a lot of reasons for this: I've started experimenting more with bluffs, 3betting and increasing the size of value bets.

And of course there's also tilt and just bad plays.

But 14 buyins seems like a lot to me for live low stakes poker. So I was wondering what players at similar stakes experience in their downswings? I don't have many poker buddies to talk with about live cash strategy (mostly mtt). So it'd be great to hear from folks with experience in this.

TLDR;
What is an expected or "normal" downswing for winning players at this level? (not that I think I'm a longterm winner yet)
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Old 08-17-2021, 01:12 PM   #25560
entirecircus
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Re: What to Expect from Downswings? (# of Buyins)

I've always heard that having 20 buy-ins was a good bankroll that should be safe for a winning player. That number would seem to take into account a 14 buy-in downswing, so... let us know if you hit 20 buy-ins down?
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Old 08-17-2021, 01:21 PM   #25561
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Re: What to Expect from Downswings? (# of Buyins)

lots of crap to wade through but there is a ton of discussion about what you are looking for in the win rate thread. link below

Short answer is it depends. If you are having tilt and bad play issuse you will need a MUCH larger bnkroll than someone who plays like a robot. My biggest DS is ballpark 15 buy ins over a real big sample @ 2/5. Dicking around with experimenting during a DS is the opposite of what you want to do.


https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...nances-771192/
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Old 08-17-2021, 02:30 PM   #25562
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Re: What to Expect from Downswings? (# of Buyins)

What do you buy in for? How big does the game play? Average open size?
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Old 08-17-2021, 03:45 PM   #25563
ishflop
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Re: What to Expect from Downswings? (# of Buyins)

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Originally Posted by nutsornot View Post
What do you buy in for? How big does the game play? Average open size?
I always buyin for the max. Usually that's $200 but at the other room I go to it's $300.

Open size depends on the table, it varies. But I'd say $10 is the standard open. Sometimes I'll get tables where $5 or $6 works, other times it's $15 or more. But $10 is my go to size until I feel I need to change due to table dynamics. There's often a lot of short stacks at the table. Min. buyin is $40 so lots of young guys will buyin in for that over and over.
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Old 08-17-2021, 03:49 PM   #25564
ishflop
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Re: What to Expect from Downswings? (# of Buyins)

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Originally Posted by entirecircus View Post
I've always heard that having 20 buy-ins was a good bankroll that should be safe for a winning player. That number would seem to take into account a 14 buy-in downswing, so... let us know if you hit 20 buy-ins down?
Ok. 20 buyins... sheesh I really hope I don't hit that. Thanks for the info.
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Old 08-17-2021, 03:52 PM   #25565
ishflop
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Re: What to Expect from Downswings? (# of Buyins)

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
lots of crap to wade through but there is a ton of discussion about what you are looking for in the win rate thread. link below

Short answer is it depends. If you are having tilt and bad play issuse you will need a MUCH larger bnkroll than someone who plays like a robot. My biggest DS is ballpark 15 buy ins over a real big sample @ 2/5. Dicking around with experimenting during a DS is the opposite of what you want to do.


https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...nances-771192/
Thanks! I will check out that thread. The experimentation started before the downswing but you bring up a good point. I probably didn't go back to my standard play-style soon enough.

Thanks for the info it's very helpful
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Old 08-18-2021, 12:55 PM   #25566
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

ishflop:

It's really easy to tilt off a couple of BI with bad plays when you start adjusting your game. Very rarely will it be the big plays either. It's $5 here and $20 there making bets or calls that you shouldn't. Then when you DO get into a good spot you're shorter than you should be and lose out of potential gains.


Take some time off, then simplify your game back to what was working before. Add in changes slowly. I've had some terrible runs where nothing goes my way for months and most people can't just "play through it" You need to reset.


Thread:

I'm back!

When the plague hit and everything shut down I basically didn't play for a year. Dabbled a little bit with some of those online club things with guys in my local home game circle, but really hated those things. In the past couple of months have hit a couple home games to warm up, then back to the casino now that the masks are off and the drink service is back.

5 sessions over 26 hours for a whopping -$80.

Felt terribly rusty in places with leaky calls or bad value bets into better hands. But not too bad overall.
The goal is to get in 200 hours this year. Ideally with a profit.

Now for the key causality of the pandemic, my BR tracker

For years I used an ancient website where I could log sessions. It's gone now. I'd periodically downloaded the session data (to generate some of those fancy plots), but it didn't let me archive session notes. Somehow I lost the downloaded copy of results from July '19 to March '20 It's only about 200 hours and I have my monthly aggregate sheet.


Either way ... I need a new tracker. I'm searching through the thread for apps, but you know how that goes.

What are the current suggestions?

Anyone have a good template for google sheets? Something with filtering and dynamic plots?
I usually use fancy software for analysis at work and never mess with phone compatible stuff.

Thanks guys.
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Old 08-18-2021, 01:37 PM   #25567
entirecircus
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
ishflop:
Either way ... I need a new tracker. I'm searching through the thread for apps, but you know how that goes.

What are the current suggestions?
I've been using Poker Income Bankroll Tracker from the iOS app store since 2013 or so. Suits my needs well.
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Old 08-18-2021, 02:56 PM   #25568
DonkeyCopter
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Cracked the 2000 hours mark.

90% 1/3 and 10% 2/5

15% of total hours in Vegas rooms, the rest in $300 max homegame.

Total Hours
2024.34
Total Profit
$109,253.00
Hourly
$53.97



Graph is just 1/3

Last edited by DonkeyCopter; 08-18-2021 at 03:04 PM.
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Old 08-18-2021, 03:30 PM   #25569
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Who is donating all the money to your game?

Also, nice results!
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Old 08-18-2021, 06:38 PM   #25570
entirecircus
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I think home games can be gold mines. I recently joined a private online home game. It's only .25/.50 or .50/1.00 blinds.. But mostly only .25/.50 played. I've got 118 hours tracked, and $2354 profit. That's $19.82/hour.

26BB an hour, if I'm generous and just say I'm playing the two limits equally.
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Old 08-18-2021, 06:44 PM   #25571
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Sure sure. Except in your example people are losing maybe $50/$100 per week. He took $100k out of his home game. That's 5k per person, per year. And that's if no one else is winning.
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Old 08-18-2021, 06:48 PM   #25572
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Sure sure. Except in your example people are losing maybe $50/$100 per week. He took $100k out of his home game. That's 5k per person, per year. And that's if no one else is winning.
My game is generally all tech professionals. It's easy to believe there are other home games playing bigger stakes, with people dropping 5k+ per year without really caring/noticing.
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Old 08-19-2021, 09:02 AM   #25573
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Sure sure. Except in your example people are losing maybe $50/$100 per week. He took $100k out of his home game. That's 5k per person, per year. And that's if no one else is winning.

We only play weekly, and it’s been largely the same group of people for the last 7 years or so.

Being significantly younger than the average in this group, I think it’s largely a testimonial to what DGAF talked about in his 2k thread - winning in a game like this primarily comes down to staying on the invite list. You can’t be a nit/grinder and squeeze every dollar out of every situation. Keep the game fun and humor people. Gamble some.

They know I win but don’t care. We’ve had other winning players get invited then not get invited back the next week.

My win rate is actually a bit higher in Vegas/casinos than at the home game, but not a significant example at 300+ hours.
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Old 08-19-2021, 10:28 AM   #25574
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
We only play weekly, and it’s been largely the same group of people for the last 7 years or so.

Being significantly younger than the average in this group, I think it’s largely a testimonial to what DGAF talked about in his 2k thread - winning in a game like this primarily comes down to staying on the invite list. You can’t be a nit/grinder and squeeze every dollar out of every situation. Keep the game fun and humor people. Gamble some.

They know I win but don’t care. We’ve had other winning players get invited then not get invited back the next week.

My win rate is actually a bit higher in Vegas/casinos than at the home game, but not a significant example at 300+ hours.

Yeah, DGAF for sure knows his shyt when it comes down to maximizing EV and winrates longterm by cultivating fun gambooly games that people want to sit in.

300 hours isnt telling anything, and can be skewed very hard either way by shortterm variance- i am sure you know that but just making it clear.
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Old 08-19-2021, 10:56 AM   #25575
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
Cracked the 2000 hours mark.

90% 1/3 and 10% 2/5

15% of total hours in Vegas rooms, the rest in $300 max homegame.

Total Hours
2024.34
Total Profit
$109,253.00
Hourly
$53.97



Graph is just 1/3
Wow, great job Donkey, looks like about ~18 bb/hr over ~1.8K hours? I don't recall seeing anything posted in here nearly that good, especially at a low steaks 1/3 NL 100bb capped game.

I'm assuming decent rake / !BBJ / tip conditions or ?

GcluelesshomegamenoobG
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