This isn't the correct way. BruceZ explains how to do it here: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...culate-575437/

Yeah, but I don't have an MS in math... The estimate is good enough to get a pretty good notion of RoR and 95% confidence interval of WR.

Huh, I guess the end result is slightly unintuitive but not too far off from what I would have guessed:



Glad someone has worked this out already, I was ready to waste an hour or two on this tonight.

And I don’t even have a high school diploma, lol. All my statistics knowledge is self taught. Don’t have to understand how it works anyway (I don’t), just copy paste.

Managed to break my 2 losing session streak and won €50 last night :')
Kinda happy though!

I got lucky a friend called me and said he wanted to play.
Kinda "forced" myself to get over my fear of losing and just go play.

Well done. Overcoming that fear of losing is what makes you a stronger player, and developes your mental threshold when it comes to handle swings in poker.

I went through this again so to speak over the last couple of years. Like, i had made peace with the swings in NL and didnt have a stoploss. I played until i felt that i coudnt constantly make +EV decisions anymore, or if i felt too tilted to keep playing.

But i have played alot of PLO over the last couple of years, wich have been a challenge regarding to adjusting my mind to the much bigger swings. Especially in wild games the stackoffs happens much more frequently and some games when i am like stuck 3 buyins after 2 hours, it is a challenge to keep it cool and accept the swings.

Quickly looked at my 1/3 NL stats.

627 sessions (and holding, sigh).

4 times I've shipped losses of $900+ (i.e. which would be 3x a $300 = 100bb BI).

Although only the first 415 of those sessions was I actually BIing for 100bb, shipping 3 3xBI losses.

My last 212 sessions (my Super Nit period) I've only been doing a BI for $200 = 67bb. I've shipped 2 3xBI (i.e. $600+ = 200bb+) losses in that period (and, lol, they were back-to-back sessions).

So, yeah, shipping 3xBI losses just once per 1000 sessions seems extremely unrealistic even based on my extremely nitty experience. For me, it's much closer to every ~100 sessions. But lol samples size, ldo.

GcluelessbiglossesnoobG

The "simple" solution can be found in Gambling Theory and Other Topics, by Mason Malmuth.

My bro-in-law said there is an equation for examining whether a streak is the result of variance. I'll ask him.

I also want to ask if buy ins is a better measure than bbs. It seems like stack depth controls your decisions way more than the tiny preflop ante.

And while we're asking such questions, whether or not the sun rises in the east.

It’s sad to me that I can’t record the final stages of my hopefully last trip from nothing to rolled. I’m now rolled for the games but the last half was not recorded for posterity. Time for a new one perhaps.

Why not write it down in a word doc and then if a time ever comes when you feel more comfortable posting it, you’ll have it

Too many dick pics mixed in to recreate I think.

I record sessions on the Colornote app and usually don't move them to Excel until April 14th.

Pfff, lost €1500 (7.5 BI's) over the last 15 hours of play in my 1/1 games.
4 sessions: -400, -200, -600 and -300

Pretty hand dead in the first and last sessions.
The -600 session I played terribly (the JTs hand)

Been running into some beats as well.
Made several bad calls too.

I'm still up quite a bit, so not too tilted.
Now I'm winning €22/h over 140 hours.

Bankroll is at €5150 so nothing to worry about just yet.
Might set a my stop-loss at €400 if I lose some more.
If I lose like another 1000, I'll probably start buying in for 150.

Was kinda hoping to get to an €8k roll asap, so I could go play the 2/4 casino games, which is the lowest stake offered in Belgium.

sample size is important, 140 hours is basically nothing, I've won $20,000 over 115 hours and then broken even for the next 200 hours playing in the same game (2/5), the variance in poker is hard to overstate

-6k in the last 17 hours.

Fun times. Do I win a prize?

Congrats Mr. JOTS you have officially won the skwid buys you a drink next time you are both in Las Vegas at the same time. Please save this poast and remind skwid he owes you a cold one due to horrible runbad.

Hope it turns soon mang!

Ty sir! Appreciate it

3 set over sets in there as well as a some other ridiculousness that is frustrating but part of the game

Absolutely brotha! Running bad at pokerz is just about the loneliest most frustrating thing. Stay focused and know u gots a cold one waiting for you when we meet up in vegas

Yah I know, just needed to vent a bit
I'd sign up for 20k over 315 hours though

Auch, part of the game, but still sucks

If playing 5K/10K, no.

Otherwise, probably yes.

GI'mexactlybreakevenovermylast494days!G

What's a good stop-loss and win-stop?
Let's assume for a decent winning player, maybe around 5bb/h

I'm currently using a stop-loss of 2 or 3 BI's depending on how I feel.
I definitely notice myself tilting a bit (not paying as much attention, feeling bad and bored, ...) once I lose my 2nd BI. Might just need to work on that so I can continue playing well no matter how much I lose.


As a win-stop, I wonder if it's even a good idea to have one and what I should base it on.

Say my bankroll is 20 BI's, so 4000 for a 2/2 game where I buy in for 200.
I sit down with 5% of my roll.
Would a win-stop of like 10-20% be reasonable?
Say I run my 200 up to 800, that's now nearly 20% of my roll (17% actually)

If we turn that around, sitting down at a table with 20% of your roll would be an insanely dumb thing do to.
Does that make it logical to get up once you have 20% of your roll in front of you?


My goal is to get to a 50 BI bankroll, from there I can obviously stay at the table much much longer, since I would basically have nearly 0% chance to go broke.
And then start to build up a 50 BI bankroll for 2/5 and maybe eventually 5/10.


Or is setting a win-stop just going to lose me insane amounts of $/h since I'd be playing deeper, everyone else is playing deeper as well the later the night goes.
(I'm playing home games mostly, not sure if this is the same in casino games.)

I've read someone post here that quitting when you're up results in you eventually becoming a losing player, since you'll never be able to make up for big losses if you never go for big wins. Not sure how I feel about that.

I think a good stoploss/win-stop is related to when you are unable to play your A-game anymore due to x amount of reasons. Some people go warm after losing 3 buyins,some can keep playing good +EV poker after busting 5 buyins.

You really need to exercise some good self assesment when playing this game.

Personally i dont have a set stoploss or winstop,i make the decision then and there in the game. If i feel i dont want to be at the table after losing 3 buyins,i leave. Other times i can easily keep reloading after losing 5 buyins. Sometimes i get scared of losing a big stack after winning big, other times i dont care and keep playing good fearless winning poker.

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