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Old 06-28-2021, 01:06 PM   #25501
Petrucci
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Also: if the swings is getting to you and you find it hard to cope, its a good idea to set a stoploss that Ranma does. Getting up from the game after you lost a certain amount.
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Old 06-28-2021, 02:04 PM   #25502
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Nobody is answering the question, "how likely is this going to happen?"

In the games that I play in, the RMS deviation for an hour's play is something on the order of 60 big blinds.

Suppose your win rate is 10 bb/hour. and you play a five-hour session. Your expected win is going to be 50 bb, and the RMS deviation of that win is going to be sqrt(5) * 60 = 112 bb.

A 300bb loss is going to be 350bb below expectation, and 350/112 is 3.1. Thus, such a loss is going to be a little more than a 3-sigma event. and as such should be happening something on the order of once in a thousand sessions.

Does this seem absurdly small to you? Three things could be going on. First, you may not be a 10bb/hour player. If your win rate is smaller, the likelihood of a loss goes up.

Second, your variance may be larger than mine. The greater the variance (and its corresponding RMS deviation), the smaller the number of sigmas a -350bb result will be.

Third, the wins and losses at poker might not be normally distributed. The tails could be surprisingly fat, because of internal correlations in results between hands of a session. You may or may not play better when you are winning, but it is reasonably likely that you play worse when you are losing, and so your losses compound in losing sessions.
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Old 06-28-2021, 02:06 PM   #25503
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Played cards for the 1st time in Vegas. $2/$5 NL at Aria, CP, and Encore over 4 days.

Hours: 27.16
Profit: $1,925
BB/Hr: 14.2

Plan to return for a WSOP event in Oct.
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Old 06-28-2021, 02:38 PM   #25504
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In the games that I play in, the RMS deviation for an hour's play is something on the order of 60 big blinds.
Yeah, that's very low. Especially for the kind of no-foldem game Yeodan's describing. 100BB SDev is much more likely.

FWIW, I once lost 750BBs in one session of a very similar homegame, and my winrate over all the hours I played in that game (not a huge number, literally about 350) was 17BB/hr.
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Old 06-28-2021, 03:12 PM   #25505
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Yeah, with a 100bb hourly deviation, a 300bb loss for a 10bb/hour winner is more like a 1.6-sigma event, which happens a *lot* more than 1% of the time.
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Old 06-28-2021, 03:31 PM   #25506
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I think it's also pretty clear that poker session results aren't normally distributed, and big wins/losses both happen more than they would on a normal distribution. The main reason IMO being that game conditions aren't constant. Maybe your game is pretty tame on the 5 weekdays but you're playing with maniacs half the time on weekends that shoot your session variance through the roof, making bigger than normal wins/losses possible.
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Old 06-28-2021, 03:40 PM   #25507
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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
Nobody is answering the question, "how likely is this going to happen?"

In the games that I play in, the RMS deviation for an hour's play is something on the order of 60 big blinds.

Suppose your win rate is 10 bb/hour. and you play a five-hour session. Your expected win is going to be 50 bb, and the RMS deviation of that win is going to be sqrt(5) * 60 = 112 bb.

A 300bb loss is going to be 350bb below expectation, and 350/112 is 3.1. Thus, such a loss is going to be a little more than a 3-sigma event. and as such should be happening something on the order of once in a thousand sessions.

Does this seem absurdly small to you? Three things could be going on. First, you may not be a 10bb/hour player. If your win rate is smaller, the likelihood of a loss goes up.

Second, your variance may be larger than mine. The greater the variance (and its corresponding RMS deviation), the smaller the number of sigmas a -350bb result will be.

Third, the wins and losses at poker might not be normally distributed. The tails could be surprisingly fat, because of internal correlations in results between hands of a session. You may or may not play better when you are winning, but it is reasonably likely that you play worse when you are losing, and so your losses compound in losing sessions.


Once in a thousand sessions seems like pretty far fetched. I havent met one single longterm winning player in my life who have a 3 buyin losing session once in thousand sessions. That number have pretty much nothing to do with reality in my opinion. If the games are good, 3 buyin losing sessions happens all the time to winning players if they take the spots they are supposed to.
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Old 06-28-2021, 03:52 PM   #25508
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

When I played live, I had a win rate of just under 9bb/hrs ~5 years and ~8,000 hours or ~2,500 sessions (I counted morning and night as different sessions).

I had 23 times where I lost more than 3 Buy Ins (150bb each) of those 7 times where I lost 4+ Buy Ins, 3 times where 6+ Buy Ins.

Maybe I just played in really high variance games (or maybe I slung chips around too much lol), but there's little chance the once in 1000 is correct imo.
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Old 06-28-2021, 03:55 PM   #25509
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
When I played live, I had a win rate of just under 9bb/hrs ~5 years and ~8,000 hours or ~2,500 sessions (I counted morning and night as different sessions).

I had 23 times where I lost more than 3 Buy Ins (150bb each) of those 7 times where I lost 4+ Buy Ins, 3 times where 6+ Buy Ins.

Maybe I just played in really high variance games (or maybe I slung chips around too much lol), but there's little chance the once in 1000 is correct imo.
Yeah, there is just no way that number is correct or attached to reality.
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Old 06-28-2021, 04:03 PM   #25510
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Let's not even talk about all the times that I was down 3 4, 5+ buy ins and stuck around to make a comeback. If the table had broke, that number would be higher.

Which is also something the math can't account for. Even if it would be random if we stuck around for the exact same 4hr per session people get up early when they are pissed or the game gets worse, or they get a booty call, or they pass our drunk at the table, want to lock up a win, etc etc.
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Old 06-28-2021, 04:11 PM   #25511
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I also don’t get how you can estimate your hourly SD if you’re not logging your stack throughout the session (eg every hour). For example, does the Poker Income app scale your observed session SD by sqrt(session length) to estimate hourly SD? I have no clue. That would also be tricky, because your sessions aren’t all the same length. I’m sure there’s a simple solution but I haven’t figured it out.
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Old 06-28-2021, 04:31 PM   #25512
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I don't know if that how that app does it, but that's how folks have traditionally estimated it ITT, with the additional step of averaging their session length.
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Old 06-28-2021, 08:46 PM   #25513
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I also don’t get how you can estimate your hourly SD if you’re not logging your stack throughout the session (eg every hour). For example, does the Poker Income app scale your observed session SD by sqrt(session length) to estimate hourly SD? I have no clue. That would also be tricky, because your sessions aren’t all the same length. I’m sure there’s a simple solution but I haven’t figured it out.
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I don't know if that how that app does it, but that's how folks have traditionally estimated it ITT, with the additional step of averaging their session length.
This isn't the correct way. BruceZ explains how to do it here: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...culate-575437/
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Old 06-28-2021, 08:56 PM   #25514
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Yeah, but I don't have an MS in math... The estimate is good enough to get a pretty good notion of RoR and 95% confidence interval of WR.
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Old 06-28-2021, 10:10 PM   #25515
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Huh, I guess the end result is slightly unintuitive but not too far off from what I would have guessed:



Glad someone has worked this out already, I was ready to waste an hour or two on this tonight.
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Old 06-28-2021, 10:24 PM   #25516
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Yeah, but I don't have an MS in math... The estimate is good enough to get a pretty good notion of RoR and 95% confidence interval of WR.
And I don’t even have a high school diploma, lol. All my statistics knowledge is self taught. Don’t have to understand how it works anyway (I don’t), just copy paste.
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Old 06-29-2021, 05:21 AM   #25517
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Managed to break my 2 losing session streak and won €50 last night :')
Kinda happy though!

I got lucky a friend called me and said he wanted to play.
Kinda "forced" myself to get over my fear of losing and just go play.
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Old 06-29-2021, 06:09 AM   #25518
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Managed to break my 2 losing session streak and won €50 last night :')
Kinda happy though!

I got lucky a friend called me and said he wanted to play.
Kinda "forced" myself to get over my fear of losing and just go play.
Well done. Overcoming that fear of losing is what makes you a stronger player, and developes your mental threshold when it comes to handle swings in poker.
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Old 06-29-2021, 06:29 AM   #25519
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I went through this again so to speak over the last couple of years. Like, i had made peace with the swings in NL and didnt have a stoploss. I played until i felt that i coudnt constantly make +EV decisions anymore, or if i felt too tilted to keep playing.

But i have played alot of PLO over the last couple of years, wich have been a challenge regarding to adjusting my mind to the much bigger swings. Especially in wild games the stackoffs happens much more frequently and some games when i am like stuck 3 buyins after 2 hours, it is a challenge to keep it cool and accept the swings.
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Old 06-29-2021, 12:49 PM   #25520
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Quickly looked at my 1/3 NL stats.

627 sessions (and holding, sigh).

4 times I've shipped losses of $900+ (i.e. which would be 3x a $300 = 100bb BI).

Although only the first 415 of those sessions was I actually BIing for 100bb, shipping 3 3xBI losses.

My last 212 sessions (my Super Nit period) I've only been doing a BI for $200 = 67bb. I've shipped 2 3xBI (i.e. $600+ = 200bb+) losses in that period (and, lol, they were back-to-back sessions).

So, yeah, shipping 3xBI losses just once per 1000 sessions seems extremely unrealistic even based on my extremely nitty experience. For me, it's much closer to every ~100 sessions. But lol samples size, ldo.

GcluelessbiglossesnoobG
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Old 06-29-2021, 01:34 PM   #25521
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sdfsgf View Post
I also don’t get how you can estimate your hourly SD if you’re not logging your stack throughout the session (eg every hour). For example, does the Poker Income app scale your observed session SD by sqrt(session length) to estimate hourly SD? I have no clue. That would also be tricky, because your sessions aren’t all the same length. I’m sure there’s a simple solution but I haven’t figured it out.
The "simple" solution can be found in Gambling Theory and Other Topics, by Mason Malmuth.
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Old 06-30-2021, 01:33 AM   #25522
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Huh, I guess the end result is slightly unintuitive but not too far off from what I would have guessed:



Glad someone has worked this out already, I was ready to waste an hour or two on this tonight.
My bro-in-law said there is an equation for examining whether a streak is the result of variance. I'll ask him.

I also want to ask if buy ins is a better measure than bbs. It seems like stack depth controls your decisions way more than the tiny preflop ante.
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Old 06-30-2021, 11:52 AM   #25523
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And while we're asking such questions, whether or not the sun rises in the east.
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Old 07-02-2021, 05:34 PM   #25524
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It’s sad to me that I can’t record the final stages of my hopefully last trip from nothing to rolled. I’m now rolled for the games but the last half was not recorded for posterity. Time for a new one perhaps.
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Old 07-02-2021, 06:56 PM   #25525
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It’s sad to me that I can’t record the final stages of my hopefully last trip from nothing to rolled. I’m now rolled for the games but the last half was not recorded for posterity. Time for a new one perhaps.

Why not write it down in a word doc and then if a time ever comes when you feel more comfortable posting it, you’ll have it
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