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 06-28-2021, 01:06 PM #25501 Petrucci Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 4,266 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Also: if the swings is getting to you and you find it hard to cope, its a good idea to set a stoploss that Ranma does. Getting up from the game after you lost a certain amount.
 06-28-2021, 02:04 PM #25502 AlanBostick Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: twitch.tv/pokershaman59 Posts: 10,854 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Nobody is answering the question, "how likely is this going to happen?" In the games that I play in, the RMS deviation for an hour's play is something on the order of 60 big blinds. Suppose your win rate is 10 bb/hour. and you play a five-hour session. Your expected win is going to be 50 bb, and the RMS deviation of that win is going to be sqrt(5) * 60 = 112 bb. A 300bb loss is going to be 350bb below expectation, and 350/112 is 3.1. Thus, such a loss is going to be a little more than a 3-sigma event. and as such should be happening something on the order of once in a thousand sessions. Does this seem absurdly small to you? Three things could be going on. First, you may not be a 10bb/hour player. If your win rate is smaller, the likelihood of a loss goes up. Second, your variance may be larger than mine. The greater the variance (and its corresponding RMS deviation), the smaller the number of sigmas a -350bb result will be. Third, the wins and losses at poker might not be normally distributed. The tails could be surprisingly fat, because of internal correlations in results between hands of a session. You may or may not play better when you are winning, but it is reasonably likely that you play worse when you are losing, and so your losses compound in losing sessions.
 06-28-2021, 02:06 PM #25503 samo Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: NJ Posts: 4,082 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Played cards for the 1st time in Vegas. \$2/\$5 NL at Aria, CP, and Encore over 4 days. Hours: 27.16 Profit: \$1,925 BB/Hr: 14.2 Plan to return for a WSOP event in Oct.
06-28-2021, 02:38 PM   #25504
Garick
Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,620
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 In the games that I play in, the RMS deviation for an hour's play is something on the order of 60 big blinds.
Yeah, that's very low. Especially for the kind of no-foldem game Yeodan's describing. 100BB SDev is much more likely.

FWIW, I once lost 750BBs in one session of a very similar homegame, and my winrate over all the hours I played in that game (not a huge number, literally about 350) was 17BB/hr.

 06-28-2021, 03:12 PM #25505 AlanBostick Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: twitch.tv/pokershaman59 Posts: 10,854 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Yeah, with a 100bb hourly deviation, a 300bb loss for a 10bb/hour winner is more like a 1.6-sigma event, which happens a *lot* more than 1% of the time.
 06-28-2021, 03:31 PM #25506 browni3141 Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Aug 2015 Location: South Florida Posts: 5,145 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I think it's also pretty clear that poker session results aren't normally distributed, and big wins/losses both happen more than they would on a normal distribution. The main reason IMO being that game conditions aren't constant. Maybe your game is pretty tame on the 5 weekdays but you're playing with maniacs half the time on weekends that shoot your session variance through the roof, making bigger than normal wins/losses possible.
06-28-2021, 03:40 PM   #25507
Petrucci
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,266
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AlanBostick Nobody is answering the question, "how likely is this going to happen?" In the games that I play in, the RMS deviation for an hour's play is something on the order of 60 big blinds. Suppose your win rate is 10 bb/hour. and you play a five-hour session. Your expected win is going to be 50 bb, and the RMS deviation of that win is going to be sqrt(5) * 60 = 112 bb. A 300bb loss is going to be 350bb below expectation, and 350/112 is 3.1. Thus, such a loss is going to be a little more than a 3-sigma event. and as such should be happening something on the order of once in a thousand sessions. Does this seem absurdly small to you? Three things could be going on. First, you may not be a 10bb/hour player. If your win rate is smaller, the likelihood of a loss goes up. Second, your variance may be larger than mine. The greater the variance (and its corresponding RMS deviation), the smaller the number of sigmas a -350bb result will be. Third, the wins and losses at poker might not be normally distributed. The tails could be surprisingly fat, because of internal correlations in results between hands of a session. You may or may not play better when you are winning, but it is reasonably likely that you play worse when you are losing, and so your losses compound in losing sessions.

Once in a thousand sessions seems like pretty far fetched. I havent met one single longterm winning player in my life who have a 3 buyin losing session once in thousand sessions. That number have pretty much nothing to do with reality in my opinion. If the games are good, 3 buyin losing sessions happens all the time to winning players if they take the spots they are supposed to.

 06-28-2021, 03:52 PM #25508 iraisetoomuch banned     Join Date: Aug 2013 Location: New Jersey Posts: 34,456 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances When I played live, I had a win rate of just under 9bb/hrs ~5 years and ~8,000 hours or ~2,500 sessions (I counted morning and night as different sessions). I had 23 times where I lost more than 3 Buy Ins (150bb each) of those 7 times where I lost 4+ Buy Ins, 3 times where 6+ Buy Ins. Maybe I just played in really high variance games (or maybe I slung chips around too much lol), but there's little chance the once in 1000 is correct imo.
06-28-2021, 03:55 PM   #25509
Petrucci
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,266
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch When I played live, I had a win rate of just under 9bb/hrs ~5 years and ~8,000 hours or ~2,500 sessions (I counted morning and night as different sessions). I had 23 times where I lost more than 3 Buy Ins (150bb each) of those 7 times where I lost 4+ Buy Ins, 3 times where 6+ Buy Ins. Maybe I just played in really high variance games (or maybe I slung chips around too much lol), but there's little chance the once in 1000 is correct imo.
Yeah, there is just no way that number is correct or attached to reality.

 06-28-2021, 04:03 PM #25510 iraisetoomuch banned     Join Date: Aug 2013 Location: New Jersey Posts: 34,456 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Let's not even talk about all the times that I was down 3 4, 5+ buy ins and stuck around to make a comeback. If the table had broke, that number would be higher. Which is also something the math can't account for. Even if it would be random if we stuck around for the exact same 4hr per session people get up early when they are pissed or the game gets worse, or they get a booty call, or they pass our drunk at the table, want to lock up a win, etc etc.
 06-28-2021, 04:11 PM #25511 sdfsgf grinder   Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 528 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I also don’t get how you can estimate your hourly SD if you’re not logging your stack throughout the session (eg every hour). For example, does the Poker Income app scale your observed session SD by sqrt(session length) to estimate hourly SD? I have no clue. That would also be tricky, because your sessions aren’t all the same length. I’m sure there’s a simple solution but I haven’t figured it out.
 06-28-2021, 04:31 PM #25512 Garick Oberbiergenießer     Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Do you even math, bruh? Posts: 24,620 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I don't know if that how that app does it, but that's how folks have traditionally estimated it ITT, with the additional step of averaging their session length.
06-28-2021, 08:46 PM   #25513
browni3141
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,145
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sdfsgf I also don’t get how you can estimate your hourly SD if you’re not logging your stack throughout the session (eg every hour). For example, does the Poker Income app scale your observed session SD by sqrt(session length) to estimate hourly SD? I have no clue. That would also be tricky, because your sessions aren’t all the same length. I’m sure there’s a simple solution but I haven’t figured it out.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Garick I don't know if that how that app does it, but that's how folks have traditionally estimated it ITT, with the additional step of averaging their session length.
This isn't the correct way. BruceZ explains how to do it here: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...culate-575437/

 06-28-2021, 08:56 PM #25514 Garick Oberbiergenießer     Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Do you even math, bruh? Posts: 24,620 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Yeah, but I don't have an MS in math... The estimate is good enough to get a pretty good notion of RoR and 95% confidence interval of WR.
 06-28-2021, 10:10 PM #25515 sdfsgf grinder   Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 528 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Huh, I guess the end result is slightly unintuitive but not too far off from what I would have guessed: $img=http://latex.codecogs.com/gif.latex?\sigma^2+=+\frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N}\frac{(X_i-U_i)}{T_i}^2$ Glad someone has worked this out already, I was ready to waste an hour or two on this tonight.
06-28-2021, 10:24 PM   #25516
browni3141
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,145
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Garick Yeah, but I don't have an MS in math... The estimate is good enough to get a pretty good notion of RoR and 95% confidence interval of WR.
And I don’t even have a high school diploma, lol. All my statistics knowledge is self taught. Don’t have to understand how it works anyway (I don’t), just copy paste.

 06-29-2021, 05:21 AM #25517 Yeodan veteran     Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Belgium, Antwerp Posts: 3,057 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Managed to break my 2 losing session streak and won €50 last night :') Kinda happy though! I got lucky a friend called me and said he wanted to play. Kinda "forced" myself to get over my fear of losing and just go play.
06-29-2021, 06:09 AM   #25518
Petrucci
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,266
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Yeodan Managed to break my 2 losing session streak and won €50 last night :') Kinda happy though! I got lucky a friend called me and said he wanted to play. Kinda "forced" myself to get over my fear of losing and just go play.
Well done. Overcoming that fear of losing is what makes you a stronger player, and developes your mental threshold when it comes to handle swings in poker.

 06-29-2021, 06:29 AM #25519 Petrucci Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 4,266 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I went through this again so to speak over the last couple of years. Like, i had made peace with the swings in NL and didnt have a stoploss. I played until i felt that i coudnt constantly make +EV decisions anymore, or if i felt too tilted to keep playing. But i have played alot of PLO over the last couple of years, wich have been a challenge regarding to adjusting my mind to the much bigger swings. Especially in wild games the stackoffs happens much more frequently and some games when i am like stuck 3 buyins after 2 hours, it is a challenge to keep it cool and accept the swings.
 06-29-2021, 12:49 PM #25520 gobbledygeek Poet Laureate of LLSNL   Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 33,407 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quickly looked at my 1/3 NL stats. 627 sessions (and holding, sigh). 4 times I've shipped losses of \$900+ (i.e. which would be 3x a \$300 = 100bb BI). Although only the first 415 of those sessions was I actually BIing for 100bb, shipping 3 3xBI losses. My last 212 sessions (my Super Nit period) I've only been doing a BI for \$200 = 67bb. I've shipped 2 3xBI (i.e. \$600+ = 200bb+) losses in that period (and, lol, they were back-to-back sessions). So, yeah, shipping 3xBI losses just once per 1000 sessions seems extremely unrealistic even based on my extremely nitty experience. For me, it's much closer to every ~100 sessions. But lol samples size, ldo. GcluelessbiglossesnoobG
06-29-2021, 01:34 PM   #25521
AlanBostick
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: twitch.tv/pokershaman59
Posts: 10,854
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sdfsgf I also don’t get how you can estimate your hourly SD if you’re not logging your stack throughout the session (eg every hour). For example, does the Poker Income app scale your observed session SD by sqrt(session length) to estimate hourly SD? I have no clue. That would also be tricky, because your sessions aren’t all the same length. I’m sure there’s a simple solution but I haven’t figured it out.
The "simple" solution can be found in Gambling Theory and Other Topics, by Mason Malmuth.

06-30-2021, 01:33 AM   #25522
DeadMoneyWalking
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Avatar Archive
Posts: 30,849
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sdfsgf Huh, I guess the end result is slightly unintuitive but not too far off from what I would have guessed: $img=http://latex.codecogs.com/gif.latex?\sigma^2+=+\frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N}\frac{(X_i-U_i)}{T_i}^2$ Glad someone has worked this out already, I was ready to waste an hour or two on this tonight.
My bro-in-law said there is an equation for examining whether a streak is the result of variance. I'll ask him.

I also want to ask if buy ins is a better measure than bbs. It seems like stack depth controls your decisions way more than the tiny preflop ante.

 06-30-2021, 11:52 AM #25523 AlanBostick Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: twitch.tv/pokershaman59 Posts: 10,854 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances And while we're asking such questions, whether or not the sun rises in the east.
 07-02-2021, 05:34 PM #25524 spikeraw22 The Situation     Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: SB is the new BTN Posts: 8,732 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances It’s sad to me that I can’t record the final stages of my hopefully last trip from nothing to rolled. I’m now rolled for the games but the last half was not recorded for posterity. Time for a new one perhaps.
07-02-2021, 06:56 PM   #25525
johnny_on_the_spot
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: S-Mart
Posts: 10,928
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by spikeraw22 It’s sad to me that I can’t record the final stages of my hopefully last trip from nothing to rolled. I’m now rolled for the games but the last half was not recorded for posterity. Time for a new one perhaps.

Why not write it down in a word doc and then if a time ever comes when you feel more comfortable posting it, you’ll have it

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