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Old 09-25-2012, 11:31 AM   #2526
Tim Brice
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you live at home and can continue to do so for the near future, then it is worth taking a shot and seeing if you can build a big enough bankroll for 2/5 or 5/10 as well as a life roll as well.

That being said, living at home is not going to impress the ladies. Plus, if you went away to college and became independent like you were supposed to, then living at home kind of sucks.

Do you have any education? Could you move to a better job market for your chosen career?
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Old 09-25-2012, 11:47 AM   #2527
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Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
Seriously?
Yeah, you don't need the money. I'd save up 500 and have a backup plan, but if you have more than enough money to survive for like half a year, there's no reason not to go for it. Make sure you work hard on your game though.
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Old 09-25-2012, 11:48 AM   #2528
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just going to put my .02 and life story cause I think it relates.

I graduated high school and went to college. Went for 2 years, lived there for 1.5yrs. Loved it when I lived there. As soon as I had to move back home I hated commuting to my school that's about 30mins away. Dropped out and got a full time job at AT&T. Worked for like 6-8mo, hated it. Quit.

Then black friday hit, then I turned 21. Started playing live and my bankroll basically skyrocketed. Played 25nl online and now I'm rolled for 5/10 live. I still live with my parents. Because I choose to.

My parents are pretty supportive now (because I've been successful in what I've chosen). I bought a car, have a good chunk of money, fly to Vegas from CT, etc etc. I have no problem living here at 22 because they don't annoy me. They support me and have came around to the notion of me doing this. At first they hated it, then I gave them results and they support me. There is no other job I will make this kind of money right now.

I don't move out because I don't have to, not because I can't afford it. Your goal shouldn't be to move out just because you think you want to. Get settled, build a roll if you can and make your decision after you actually experience what it's like to play poker for a serious living. It's much different. I don't even pay rent but since I have car payments and other bills, poker is not completely recreational anymore, it's something I have to take seriously.

I don't ever drink at the casino or gamble or do anything stupid, but if you do you need to cut that out immediately or else your in for a world of hurt. Your not at the casino to have fun.

Save Save Save.

This is my one leak. I buy too much dumb stuff because I have too much money lying around that is immediately accessible. I wish I put more away.

If you really want to give it a shot, you need to put 100% into it. At regular jobs you can show up hungover and half asleep and make the same hourly. In poker you need your A-game all day long or else your laziness/incompetence is directly costing you money.

If your prepared to make these commitments as well as deal with the other BS that comes with playing poker for a living, go for it. If not, your time is better spent looking for a real job.

my .02
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Old 09-25-2012, 11:53 AM   #2529
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$2500 with $80 monthly expenses is more than enough. It'd be pretty difficult for a proven winner to go on a 12.5 BI downswing at live $1/2. But regardless, without a need for a life-roll, it's mostly irrelevant anyway. If you go bust you aren't really busto if you have a home, it's just burger flipping time for a few months.

I feel comfortable playing $1/2 with a $1K bankroll and I play LAG cause if I ever bust, I just go back to playing low stakes MTTs online and rebuild another $1K, but it hasn't happened yet. Never lost more than 3BI downswing in live 1/2.
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Old 09-25-2012, 12:03 PM   #2530
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by canoodles View Post
. Never lost more than 3BI downswing in live 1/2.
lol
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Old 09-25-2012, 12:37 PM   #2531
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
The problem is finding a job is hard. Really hard. Harder than I'd ever imagine. And I am trying but it's a slow process. In the meantime, I'd like for some money to come in and that's why I'm considering hitting the felt again.

Is there anyway to calculate a risk of ruin with my size of bankroll?
It's going to be a lot harder to get callbacks once you damage your resume more by wiping out a year attempting to play 1/2 NL for a living. It's also going to be a lot harder physically and mentally to even try to get back into a normal work schedule after playing oddball hours for a year at the poker table.

Quote:
Oh yeah, important info: My monthly expenses = ~$80 (living at home)
Nothing against you personally OP, but honestly, is anyone here shocked by this?

Quote:
Yeah, you don't need the money. I'd save up 500 and have a backup plan, but if you have more than enough money to survive for like half a year, there's no reason not to go for it. Make sure you work hard on your game though.
Dynamite. How about when he's 28 or 32 or 36 and he actually has to, you know, pay normal bills and runs into a stretch where it's difficult? Bet he'll feel then like he should have banked some more when he was young.
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Old 09-25-2012, 12:43 PM   #2532
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Originally Posted by Tim Brice View Post
If you live at home and can continue to do so for the near future, then it is worth taking a shot and seeing if you can build a big enough bankroll for 2/5 or 5/10 as well as a life roll as well.

That being said, living at home is not going to impress the ladies. Plus, if you went away to college and became independent like you were supposed to, then living at home kind of sucks.

Do you have any education? Could you move to a better job market for your chosen career?
In many areas, boatloads of people live at home until they're in their mid-20's, including the ladies he'd be getting. They won't care, it's actually pretty standard. Now, if he was 32, it'd make a difference, but in 2012 women of college age aren't holding living at home against guys of college age.

Women not really the most important aspect to consider here anyway.
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Old 09-25-2012, 12:44 PM   #2533
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What? He'll be able to save up way more if he played poker by saving up his winnings. If I didn't do uni I'd have 4-6x as much money now. Obviously he should make the best of this period of time where he doesn't need to pay as much in expenses and use this time to let his growth skyrocket to the point where he doesn't have to think about expenses ever again.

I said HALF A YEAR. How does he become 28, 32, or 36 in HALF A YEAR? If it doesn't work out during that time, you obviously go to your backup plan.
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Old 09-25-2012, 12:55 PM   #2534
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I don't think you understand where I was going with that. If he goes bust instead of building up his finances now via normal work, he surely won't be feeling like he doesn't need the money.

Why do you automatically assume he's going to be a big winner? Because he posted on this website about turning pro, is that all it takes?
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Old 09-25-2012, 01:28 PM   #2535
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How do you automatically assume he's going to be successful at a normal job?

It's obviously his responsibility to decide, but I don't think taking half a year out to give it a try is a bad thing at all in his situation.

I definitely think most vaguely intelligent people would be capable of going pro if they put in the effort, yeah.
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Old 09-25-2012, 01:51 PM   #2536
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How do you automatically assume he's going to be successful at a normal job?

It's obviously his responsibility to decide, but I don't think taking half a year out to give it a try is a bad thing at all in his situation.

I definitely think most vaguely intelligent people would be capable of going pro if they put in the effort, yeah.
The odds that someone of reasonable intelligence is going to be able to apply themselves and do well at a "normal" job have to be a lot higher than the same at a 1/2 NL table. And, at most "normal" jobs, you're still bringing in guaranteed money and building resume experience.
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Old 09-25-2012, 02:27 PM   #2537
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I wouldn't know from experience, since I have't worked a job, but poker feels a lot simpler/easier to me. Work seems a lot more demanding on "team work" and responsibility and stuff. Whatever.
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Old 09-25-2012, 06:01 PM   #2538
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I see. You haven't "worked a job" centered around "team work and responsibility and stuff" for what reason? I'm genuinely curious.
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Old 09-25-2012, 07:16 PM   #2539
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I just never had a job...?
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Old 09-25-2012, 07:23 PM   #2540
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I started playing poker when i was 19. I mean I've made small amounts of money doing freelance editing work when I was younger. Made like a bit of money in a writing competition. Almost got a part time gig coaching english but that's it. Obviously I can't claim to have the experience to compare the two lifestyles. Excelling at poker feels way easier though. I can't handle routine and following orders and the lack of freedom.
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Old 09-26-2012, 04:27 AM   #2541
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by canoodles View Post
$2500 with $80 monthly expenses is more than enough. It'd be pretty difficult for a proven winner to go on a 12.5 BI downswing at live $1/2. But regardless, without a need for a life-roll, it's mostly irrelevant anyway. If you go bust you aren't really busto if you have a home, it's just burger flipping time for a few months.

I feel comfortable playing $1/2 with a $1K bankroll and I play LAG cause if I ever bust, I just go back to playing low stakes MTTs online and rebuild another $1K, but it hasn't happened yet. Never lost more than 3BI downswing in live 1/2.
You can't be serious???

I've lost 8 buyins in a day at 1/2 multiple times and am a huge winner in the game. Do you play extreme nit or something?
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Old 09-26-2012, 04:57 AM   #2542
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yea, not ever losing more than 3 buy ins is definitely not something to bank on. if you play regularly, you'll lose much more than that, and you'll do it often. it has nothing to do with how good you are or how bad the other players are, it's just variance. 3 buy in swings are nothing, absolutely nothing. every player here has 3 buy in swings in individual sessions, never mind overall.
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:53 AM   #2543
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i've had 3 buy in downswings in single hands
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Old 09-26-2012, 10:55 AM   #2544
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I need to find a risk of ruin formula...I've already calculated my standard deviation. My winrate is $10.37917006 with a standard deviation of $45.42360324.

If the risk is less than maybe 15 or 20%, then I am going to the poker room tomorrow...

Anyone know the formula?

Is this right?

"Risk of Ruin = e ^(-2WR*BR / SD^2)

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/5392101"

If so my RoR is crazy small...less than 1%. But could that be right? My largest downswing, of my 614.5 hour sample size, was ~$700 loss.

Last edited by BenT07891; 09-26-2012 at 11:02 AM.
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Old 09-26-2012, 11:56 AM   #2545
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
I need to find a risk of ruin formula...I've already calculated my standard deviation. My winrate is $10.37917006 with a standard deviation of $45.42360324.

If the risk is less than maybe 15 or 20%, then I am going to the poker room tomorrow...

Anyone know the formula?

Is this right?

"Risk of Ruin = e ^(-2WR*BR / SD^2)

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/5392101"

If so my RoR is crazy small...less than 1%. But could that be right? My largest downswing, of my 614.5 hour sample size, was ~$700 loss.
That std must be off, it is way too low. How are you calculating it?
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Old 09-26-2012, 12:25 PM   #2546
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

For those of you who are advocating this guy trying to be a pro, how old are you? Rob is pretty young and I am guessing Sol Reader is as well. I would like to hear someone with 20+ years of playing pro poker advocate that this give it a shot. Of course, sample size is tiny for that because so few people have done it.

I am siding with 2Outs on this one. It is logical thing to do, especially if you have any sort of education. There is nothing better than knowing you have a job to cover you and the play poker on the weekends when the games are so much better. As someone said earlier in this thread, I can show up hungover, half asleep and surf the web and still get my hourly rate of around $40 plus benefits plus retirement etc etc.

If you get the right job, you don't have punch a clock. I can come and go as I please, as long as get my work done, sort of like playing poker.
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Old 09-26-2012, 12:35 PM   #2547
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb View Post
In many areas, boatloads of people live at home until they're in their mid-20's, including the ladies he'd be getting. They won't care, it's actually pretty standard. Now, if he was 32, it'd make a difference, but in 2012 women of college age aren't holding living at home against guys of college age.

Women not really the most important aspect to consider here anyway.
Wow, I am only 28 so that must have changed since I after I graduated shortly after college. But I do know some guys who still live at home who are my age and the amount of tail they pull-in is virtually non-existent.
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Old 09-26-2012, 12:49 PM   #2548
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tim Brice View Post
Wow, I am only 28 so that must have changed since I after I graduated shortly after college. But I do know some guys who still live at home who are my age and the amount of tail they pull-in is virtually non-existent.
My guess is the amount of tail most average guys pull in is a lot lower than what people might think, and like winrates, is often exaggerated.
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Old 09-26-2012, 12:53 PM   #2549
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but it hasn't happened yet. Never lost more than 3BI downswing in live 1/2.
mbn, also, key word = yet.

And sick brag about being able to play online donkaments. Sigh.

Last edited by Hand Shaker; 09-26-2012 at 12:59 PM.
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Old 09-26-2012, 12:55 PM   #2550
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That std must be off, it is way too low. How are you calculating it?
SD = SQRT((Riemansum of (x-xmn)^2))/(n-1)), right?

I have an excel file of each session, the time per session, and the win/loss for the session. For the equation, x is the winrate for that session alone. Xmn is my overall win rate for my entire career. n is the number of sessions minus 1.
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