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Old 06-12-2021, 08:08 PM   #25426
spikeraw22
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In a very small sample I’m beating 100NL for 10bb/100 ~8 tables.

It’s probably better online RIGHT NOW, but I enjoy live games and the fish at the casino aren’t going anywhere.
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Old 06-12-2021, 08:28 PM   #25427
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In a very small sample I’m beating 100NL for 10bb/100 ~8 tables.

It’s probably better online RIGHT NOW, but I enjoy live games and the fish at the casino aren’t going anywhere.
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Old 06-13-2021, 01:33 AM   #25428
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I’m no expert, but stars michigan probably makes up less than a few % of total online poker traffic even just in the us

how the games are there rn is not representative of much

another thing you have to account for is rake paid obv. It equals/exceeds winnings for most regs (let alone everyone)

I’ve been paying over $100/hr in rake online for example
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Old 06-13-2021, 08:29 AM   #25429
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Rake is definitely disgusting. I think I calculated. At double live rake at 100NL. Less the higher you go. The smallest micros might be unbeatable for many for no other reason.
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Old 06-14-2021, 03:59 PM   #25430
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Do you guys think hit and running is smart for a new player?
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Old 06-14-2021, 04:20 PM   #25431
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Do you guys think hit and running is smart for a new player?
Yes. In certain games, it's smart for advanced players too.
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Old 06-14-2021, 04:22 PM   #25432
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Do you guys think hit and running is smart for a new player?
In a nutshell: no. Mostly its gonn stagnate your development as a player, and you dont accomplish much really by hitting and running.

That said, you can be smart when making quit decisions in a certain game. If you are up a couple of buyins and feel that you cant play your game cause the money matters too much- yeah sure, cashout and book a win.

But sooner or later you got to challenge yourself and keep playing in order to be better at deepstackplay for example. So what i am getting at really, is that hit and run is a very shortsighted approach.
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Old 06-14-2021, 04:56 PM   #25433
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For a new player, where implementing a solid strategy with a shortstack is much easier to do / understand than implementing a solid strategy with a deepstack (which is simply much more difficult to do), it is probably a good idea. Even a common recommendation for experienced players moving up in stakes is to BI short and play a shortstack strategy while they get their feet wet. Once you get some experience under you belt, then obviously do whatever you want.

However, even in a casino environment you should probably do your best to not get a bad rep by hit and running once you double up from your short BI. One way of doing this is moving to a smaller stacked table (where amongst smaller stacks you'll still be an effectively short stack); some rooms may even have rules that force you to rathole when moving tables (thus bringing yourself back down to a shortstack within the rules). At the very least I would recommend playing a couple of more orbits after the double up so as to not make the hit and run as obvious.

GcluelessshortstackingnoobG
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Old 06-15-2021, 01:01 AM   #25434
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Yes. In certain games, it's smart for advanced players too.
Like GG said don't make it painfully obvious like the second you win the pot. Wait an orbit or two, like a person of character, or until the end of the down.

When you lack experience you really need to focus on amassing a bankroll because chances are you aren't particularly good and will just get stacked by better players eventually. So book the wins when they come and keep learning.

Once you think you have a better grasp of the game you can play longer sessions.
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Old 06-15-2021, 03:19 AM   #25435
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hit and running is a great idea for a bad/losing player. That’s why we hate it!
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Old 06-15-2021, 04:09 AM   #25436
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Hit and run no.

Book a win when on a short bank roll yes.

Others have articulated why you should or shouldn’t pick up but the main reason really should be BR preservation. If you aren’t fully rolled for the game and you don’t have a huge edge then book it and come back with a normal stack.
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Old 06-15-2021, 06:55 AM   #25437
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm currently on a huge heater, not sure if I should call it that.

I've played 8 sessions in a 1/1 home game and won every single time.
Played for around 40 hours total.
Winning at 25/hour, which seems insane for a 1/1 game.

I'm not sure what to expect.
I realize 40 hours is a tiny sample.

Yet I don't feel like I'm running hot or anything.
I'm mostly just playing bingo and getting paid of.

Is this standard?
The people in my games are terrible, none of them have done any studying.

I'm quite experienced, but I feel like 50% of my poker knowledge doesn't apply in these games and I end up just playing bingo all night long and getting paid.
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Old 06-15-2021, 07:59 AM   #25438
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Yeah, that sounds pretty standard for a 1/1 home game. I don't think 25/hr is sustainable, because you'll go through stretches where your bingo never hits and/or when theirs do, but since they love to pay, you can still make bank with this simple "make a hand and get paid" strategy.

I was at about 17/hr in a similar game over several hundred hours.
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Old 06-15-2021, 08:11 AM   #25439
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Yeah I'm expecting my win rate to drop to like 10-15/hr
Hope I can sustain that for a long period and build my roll!
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Old 06-15-2021, 11:19 AM   #25440
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Rake is definitely disgusting. I think I calculated. At double live rake at 100NL. Less the higher you go. The smallest micros might be unbeatable for many for no other reason.
No rakeback?
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:02 PM   #25441
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Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
Yeah I'm expecting my win rate to drop to like 10-15/hr
Hope I can sustain that for a long period and build my roll!
I'm still at $17/hr. over 300 hours in all my 0.25/0.5 home games. That's 20 bb/hr. They're just that soft. (But I don't really play for the money, I play for the good times with friends. I could be making much more in a casino.)
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:17 PM   #25442
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@ Yeodan

So I quickly went over my stats to see what my best streaks were at my 1/3 NL game.

627 sessions overall (4959.5 hours @ 6.87 bb/hr, 65.7% session winrate)

My record winstreak is 15. Also had one of 10, one of 9, one of 8, and a total of seven of 7.

The most ridiculous part is that the 15 and the 10 and one of the 7s came in a single 35 game span, where I won 7, then lost $12 in a 12 hour session, then booked the 10, then lost 2, then booked the 15. Booked 15.80 bb/hr over 356 hours in that 35 game span.

As for the others:

9 (14.91 bb/hr over 81 hours)
8 (22.51 bb/hr over 64 hours)
7 (17.68 bb/hr over 59 hours)
7 (17.44 bb/hr over 43 hours)
7 (16.59 bb/hr over 57 hours)
7 (11.48 bb/hr over 69 hours)
7 (10.91 bb/hr over 69 hours)
7 (9.61 bb/hr over 35 hours)

I guess the moral of that story is that if you play long enough there is a very good chance that you'll book lots of little lol sample size stretches where you do nothing but print money at a rate that is astronomically higher than your overall expected rate.

Having said that, if you are playing a super casual home game (i.e. just with a bunch of buddies) who are incredibly terrible/inexperienced players and a decent rake, then there is an ok chance you'll do very well in that game. It would be my guess that the average well experienced casino losing player would slaughter any casual home game consisting only of inexperienced buddies.

Gwin20inarow,Iwearanavatarofyourchoiceforamonth!G
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:52 PM   #25443
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Crushing the game so hard in the last 6 weeks that I would go back and delete everything I ever said about WR.

It's like taking the time off because of COVID made me see things from a completely new perspective.
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:54 PM   #25444
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by kimoser22 View Post
No rakeback?
Stars' rakeback is pretty crappy. There's a deposit bonus which is basically 33% rakeback up to $600 max but you only get it once. There are promos that are +EV if you take advantage of them, but they're limited. For example there's a "poker exclusive challenge" which gave me 33% rakeback up to $220 this month. There are also casino promos. Right now they're doing daily blackjack insurance which is about $20 +EV a day.

I paid 18BB/100 in rake at 10NL. Pretty gross. I ran good and was at 29BB/100 allin adjusted (before rakeback) over 22.5k hands before I moved up so thankfully the rake didn't murder me.
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Old 06-15-2021, 01:13 PM   #25445
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Originally Posted by Tanqueray View Post
It's like taking the time off because of COVID made me see things from a completely new perspective.
Any aha takeaways?

GcluelessahanoobG
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Old 06-15-2021, 01:16 PM   #25446
Tanqueray
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Re-examine the concepts and lines you have always used.

I am an entirely different player than before, even though I didn't really learn anything groundbreaking new.
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Old 06-15-2021, 02:18 PM   #25447
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've had the same thing happen to me after taking a long break.
Poker just suddenly seemed to make sense, the way other people were playing, how they viewed me, ...

I think it's just all the stuff you've studied coming together in your unconsciousness, really having had the time to sink in after a long break.
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Old 06-15-2021, 03:34 PM   #25448
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Poker is the softest it’s been since like 2008
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Old 06-15-2021, 03:51 PM   #25449
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Originally Posted by NewAcctIsBest View Post
Poker is the softest it’s been since like 2008
This definitely seems true. I haven't seen this many people calling off suited connectors vs raises in years. and most of the nits seem to have found another way to grind out $15/hour
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Old 06-15-2021, 05:51 PM   #25450
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
Stars' rakeback is pretty crappy. There's a deposit bonus which is basically 33% rakeback up to $600 max but you only get it once. There are promos that are +EV if you take advantage of them, but they're limited. For example there's a "poker exclusive challenge" which gave me 33% rakeback up to $220 this month. There are also casino promos. Right now they're doing daily blackjack insurance which is about $20 +EV a day.

I paid 18BB/100 in rake at 10NL. Pretty gross. I ran good and was at 29BB/100 allin adjusted (before rakeback) over 22.5k hands before I moved up so thankfully the rake didn't murder me.

Aren't we paying something like 15BB/100 live? 20BB/100 if you include tips?
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