WR 3BB/hr, RoR = ?
WR 5BB/hr, RoR = ?
WR 7BB/hr, RoR = ?

I'm guessing at WR = 10+ BB/hr, RoR (20 BI BR, 1 BI = 100BB, 100BB/hr = 1 STDV) is at/near/approaches zero as WR (further) increases?

I posted a link to a calculator very recently.

It's based on the formula RoR = e^(-2*μ*B/σ^2)

Where μ is winrate, B is bankroll and σ is standard deviation.

nice. ive always wished i could win online instead of winning live, but i just cant win online. it would be so nice not to pay $1000-1500 a month with lyft and uber all the time to get around (almost always after dark, so using a bus is out of the question). or to have to depend on a friend who is able to drive since im not able to. but i lose my ass constantly online so i go to a casino. it just wouldnt make sense to play online where i cant win and often keep rebuying online poker money from others $20 here, $200 there, until its gone, when i on average make over $5000 a month in live PLO games

ive never understood why winning live is such easy money when winning online is next to impossible. people in 1 cent 2 cent games online are world class experts and people in live $1-3 PLO keep rebuying in $1000 and just give it away

Most of the live players are there to have fun and play too many hands, which is one of the worst mistakes you can make in poker.
Having too many hands pre leads to huge mistakes post that are impossible to avoid.

It's easy to press the fold button when you have 4-50 tables running online.
Folding for 2 hours straight because you're card dead live is impossible for most people.

^ mostly this.
But also:
database for objectively seeing how you're doing in certain spots helps you get very much faster
You can play 10x+ more hand per hour so you're going to get better faster (or if you suck you'll lose your money faster)

My best run at 1/3 NL was over a sample size of just over 1000 hours, at 12.79 bb/hr.

My worst run at 1/3 NL was pretty much right after that, a little 1300 hour stretch at 3.97 bb/hr.

Ditto for yearly comparisons (where I admittedly only get in ~550ish hours per year), but my best one was a full *4.5* times better than my worse one.

The point is that over any individual lol 1000 hour stretch you'll probably have an ok idea if you're a winner versus breakeven versus a loser, but other than that you probably shouldn't base too many decisions on doing x if you're at n versus doing y if you're at m, because n and m are likely a lot closer than you think.

If the game looks good and you have a decent outside bankroll taking care of you bills, and you want to sit in it and give it a go, then no harm in doing so. Waiting until you are at n versus m isn't going to tell you very much, imo.

Gjustbasedonmyownidiotexperience,nothingmoreG

If you have to drive 30 minutes to play and it's the most exciting thing you're doing all week, then you are probably not going to just sit there.

Just completed my 30th session since mid April where I have been all in with my stack at risk one time, and it required me flopping quads to do so. Half those sessions have been less than 4 hours due to game dynamics. Table changing when mine becomes not good, getting to a new game, stacks leaving, left playing short with no action and or short stacks etc. Constantly losing or winning the minimum with premiums. A slow drip at 2/5 for 6 weeks down 3 buyins . Never had a stretch like this but good gosh it is agitating as hell....keep telling myself I'll eventually get out of this rut but damn after never experiencing seemingly the same scenarios night in night out over this time it seems like it won't happen.

I’m not sure anyone has ever catalogued their decline in mental acuity in such detail. Congrats.


To the last poster- are your games consistently not good? Do you have any other options? Home games maybe?

Allow me to chime in here to give some perspective from someone who had the poker life dream way back in 2010 and still loves to play the game today. BTW I am 36 years old.

I discovered poker via college classmate in 2010. Instantly fell in love with it. I was amazed by the money my classmate was making. It wasn't anything huge, but this was pre-Black Friday and he was cashing out $$$ thousands $$$ in tournament wins. Not to mention being able to log into Full Tilt Poker and watching the high-stakes games where hundreds of thousands of dollars were exchanging hands. I just got out of a 5 year stint in the Navy and was taking advantage of the post 9/11 GI bill. I was receiving about a $2k a month stipend.

$2,000 a month is great for a college student, as it allows you to study full-time without worry much about work or money. Long story short, I spent more and more time playing and studying poker and less time with school. I started to notice my grades slipping, but hey... I was actually starting to WIN at poker and was dreaming about 6-7 figures a year income while travelling and partying right?

Well Black Friday hit. Lost ability to play on the big sites. Poker in USA almost grinded to a halt, and we were relegated to semi-shady poker sites to continue playing. This killed about half my motivation and definitely big income possibilities while playing in the US. School wasn't going well, hard to catch up after neglecting my classes for a while. Eventually I ran out of benefits, had to get a $10/hr paying job and was thinking of taking a $10,000 loan and moving to Cambodia or Philippines to play poker full time. Thinking back today, I think this would have been very stupid. Although I admit part of me would have liked to try it to see what would have happened. Unfortunately you cannot go to your last saved checkpoint in life and try a new path or strategy.

Fortunately, I was able to secure a job at a big company by networking from a friend who was an employee. I was able to start at $60,000 a year. I am still working at the company today making $130,000 + benefits, WFH most days a week etc. I'm also married with one kid and I just got back into poker as a hobby / side-hustle. Went to the casino yesterday and made $500 at 1/3 in 3 hours. Felt good.

Now, time for the life lessons here.

• Trying to earn a living off of poker while already being broke SUCKS. Don't do it. You start to place too much value into every hand and you can't make the best decisions because you are scared money.
  
  
• Winrates are fun to talk and theorize about. However, that should not be your focus. As a player, you should be a student of the game. The high winrates will follow if you just focus on learning the game and being a better player.
  
  
• Adding to the first point, don't quit your day job. Make poker a side hustle until you notice that you're making more money from poker consistently than your job with benefits.
  
  
• IF you still decided you want to pursue poker only, then you better be ready to grind your F***ing brains out. I'm talking playing and studying. When you're not on the felt you better be studying. Deliberate practice hours a day. You need to eat, sleep, and breathe poker. This is for survival. Oh and you also should probably have 8-12 months living expenses saved. Give yourself 6 months to make it and if you don't, you still have a few months expenses to live off of to get a new job and to save up for another shot while you are still doing poker as a side hustle.

Finally, be prepared for anything that comes your way. I didn't think Black Friday would hit when it did. You should imagine the worst case scenarios and your response for each of them. What would you do if another Black Friday hit, effectively closing up the remaining sites? What would you do if you lost your job? What if you weren't as good as you thought you were? What if you run out of money? You don't want to be surprised. Be prepared for anything.

I think this is good enough. I may edit and add a few more points as I think of them. Good Luck.

Just hang in there Pork. Variance can be alot worse than most people realize. Its often hard to get a grip around it before you get to feel it yourself. You hear winning players talk about 300-400 hour breakeven stretches and absolutely scary long losing streaks, and i guess we often just dont want to face it. Like, its soul crushing enough when we do end up experiencing it.

Its not long since i started to climb out of a soulcrushing downswing. It is as challenging as ever to do. That downswing actually made me take 10 days off to really cool down and reset properly mentally,wich i havent felt the need to do in several years.

You will get out of it eventually, its all about keeping a clear head and keep making +EV plays.

Ty. Yeah. Just bizzare that the same circumstances seem to have happened in like 26 of those 30 sessions. Most especially the times where I'm losing no more than 50 In a hand all night and hardly ever making it past a turn voluntarily . Then I will get involved with a premium and might lose 1-200 due to crappy run-outs etc preventing me from doing something. Most I've lost in a hand in this stretch was 400, which again is bizarre for 2/5 game. Not wishing nfor worse though lol

Out of curiosity

Define good. I've heard world class players can make 20bb/hr from reliable sources. I don't think there's any doubt you can make 10bb/hr and still have a fair amount of leaks.

Well, that's why I wanted to hear what everyone's opinion on a good win rate at these stakes currently is. Mine is 10bb/hr.

That's good. *the end*

I always wonder how people are playing 2/5 and 5/10 and not know anything about expected win rate at those stakes.

Over what sample size?

Gthelargerthesamplethemorelikelyyouareinthatballpa rk,imoG

1400 hours

I have 0 friends in poker and this is my first time back on 2+2 in many moons. I FIGURED 10 was great, but was looking for confirmation.

Solid, nice.

Not to discourage, but see my post just a page back which indicates how it is at least possible to post both biggish and smallish winrates thru ~similar sample sizes.

Gyou'relikelydoingverywellcomparedtomostofyouroppo nentsG

top shelf w/r sir

Ive been perfessional for a long time I have a ton of gamboolin pals. Not many hit 10+over the long haul

My poker life is completely upside down. I have like $360 in my live roll (lol). I’ve been doing so well online that my online roll is ~10x this amount. This has never happened to me.

So, what's the better w/r's they have over the lonnnnggggggg haul?

stars michigan I’m assuming?