Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-02-2021, 03:36 PM   #25376
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,601
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sam,

1) Steaks is an old 2+2 "joke" spelling.

2) Please discuss tipping in the C&CP tipping containment thread. Generally speaking though, tipping on pots is not really related to percents. Jackpots more often are.

3) If you have a job and are playing for fun, you don't need living expenses and emergency fund as part of your bankroll. DUCY?

4) General rule of thumb for no-limit is 20 Buy-Ins for your main game for a winning player, though it obviously varies wildly based on your SDev. Unless you are particularly loose or tight, figure your SDev at about 100bb/hr.

5) As others have mentioned, nothing wrong with shot-taking with the money that is above your normal game's BR requirements. If you run well, you can stick at the new level. Or just shot take when the game looks good/until you're comfortable.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2021, 05:33 PM   #25377
johnny_on_the_spot
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnny_on_the_spot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: S-Mart
Posts: 10,914
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
2/5 isn't as hard as you think.

+1

Neither is 5/10.
johnny_on_the_spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2021, 05:44 PM   #25378
Ranma4703
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: she / her
Posts: 3,008
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm gonna disagree and say that 2/5 and 5/T are harder then most new people realize. If you're at the point in your poker career where other people's opinion on the difficulty of the game impacts your decision making, you're probably at the point where you're gonna break even or lose in those games.

Most of the people I sit with at 2/5 think they are long term winners in the game. Obviously, most of them are not.
Ranma4703 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2021, 06:25 PM   #25379
browni3141
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,114
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There's a pretty big difference between 1|2/3 and 2|5. 2|5 actually supports people playing for a living, while at 1|2 a pro would pretty much be scraping by depending on where you live, so there are a lot of better players at 2|5. Honestly most live pros are still fish relative to good online players but you'd still rather have a rec in their seats. 2|5 also just generally plays slightly better in every aspect of the game. There's less preflop limping, more 3-betting, less Vpipping of total garbage like K6o vs raises. More postflop aggression, etc. Of course everyone is still pretty bad in every aspect, just not as mindnumbingly horrible as the people common 1|2 who limp/call 80% UTG.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2021, 02:11 AM   #25380
DeadMoneyWalking
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
DeadMoneyWalking's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Avatar Archive
Posts: 30,776
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Today I learned Dave Ramsey's username.
DeadMoneyWalking is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2021, 02:14 AM   #25381
Tanqueray
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
Posts: 1,036
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I chuckled.

Sigh...now I feel old understanding that joke.
Tanqueray is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2021, 09:44 PM   #25382
sam7595
centurion
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 136
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Sam,

1) Steaks is an old 2+2 "joke" spelling.

2) Please discuss tipping in the C&CP tipping containment thread. Generally speaking though, tipping on pots is not really related to percents. Jackpots more often are.

3) If you have a job and are playing for fun, you don't need living expenses and emergency fund as part of your bankroll. DUCY?

4) General rule of thumb for no-limit is 20 Buy-Ins for your main game for a winning player, though it obviously varies wildly based on your SDev. Unless you are particularly loose or tight, figure your SDev at about 100bb/hr.

5) As others have mentioned, nothing wrong with shot-taking with the money that is above your normal game's BR requirements. If you run well, you can stick at the new level. Or just shot take when the game looks good/until you're comfortable.
1. Now I just feel like an Eastern European trying to pronounce 'sticks'

2. Saw the thread, especially recent posts...wonder if it should be (further) broken down between cash & tourneys...but that's neither here nor there for this thread.

3. Yes, having full-time salaried employment with benefits is a completely different world/life than solely playing cards for a living. As mentioned, my BR is the result of having then played 10/20 LHE full-time (I just can't get myself to ever say 'pro') along with some growth along the way (recreationally playing LHE & 7-card stud in the post-Moneymaker poker glory days) and the recent transition to incorporate LLSNL like 1/3 into the mix.

I still occasionally sit 10/20 & 20/40 7-stud & LHE games in Vegas and East Coast when I can find them and just have one BR for all poker not separate ones for each game/type/'steaks' (technically I would need $60k to sit 20/40 7-Card Stud 'full-time' @ 1500 Big Bet rule [due to extra betting round]).

4. Assuming 1 BI = 100BB = 5% total 20 BI BR & 1 STDV = 100BB/hr, then with a ~34% possibility of losing/risking <10% total BR within as little as two hours, isn't that putting RoR = ~7-10% (excluding availability/possibility of larger max BIs [133.3-166.7BB or even 200BB], and something well within the variance of poker independent of (winning) player skill? Wouldn't a 40-50 BI BR bring RoR ~<1-2% or ~3% (even with 200BB BI & 100BB/hr STDV).*,**

5. 10+ BB/hr winning rate at 1/3 sustainably over a longer duration interval (i.e. 1500 hrs or 12 months, whichever comes first) while not impossible, is the stuff of legends? Is there a performance metric indicator that would denote time to move up? I anticipate at $5BB game level that Darwinian-like evolution would force me to improve?

* I'm assessing RoR from the perspective of other types of full-time gambling endeavours, e.g. conservative BJ card counters would never entertain putting themselves over 1% RoR...yes, Poker is to BJ card counting as apples are to a Coca-Cola bottle.

** Obviously 2 STDV (sigma) hits the ~95%, both in the positive and negative dimensions that much possibly faster...accelerating possibility of RoR that much faster?

Last edited by sam7595; 06-03-2021 at 10:01 PM.
sam7595 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2021, 09:58 PM   #25383
Ranma4703
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: she / her
Posts: 3,008
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sam7595 View Post
5. 10+BB/hr at 1/3 sustainably over a longer duration interval (i.e. 1500 hrs or 12 months, whichever comes first) while not impossible, is the stuff of legends? Is there a performance metric indicator that would denote time to move up? I anticipate at $5BB game level that Darwinian-like evolution would force me to improve?
it's not the stuff of legends at 2/5, so I don't think it would be at 1/3? The rake is worse but the players are much worse.

General rule of thumb I've seen is, when you have an excess roll, whatever that means to you, you take shots at the next level game when it looks good.

If I was trying to move up from 1/3, I'd shot take a good 2/5 game when my roll was over $7,000 and it looked good. Buy in for 60bb, play tight, get a feel for the game.
Ranma4703 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2021, 10:13 PM   #25384
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,601
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

10BB/hr is often sustainable in the lowest games. But really, there's no magic formula. Move up when you're comfortable.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2021, 10:20 PM   #25385
squid face
ChatThreadPrez
 
squid face's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: grabbin c-notes from the money tree
Posts: 10,246
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

my w/r @ 2/5 is over 10 bigs per hr with a massive sample size

if u promise to use less words I will help you
squid face is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2021, 10:30 PM   #25386
sam7595
centurion
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 136
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ranma4703 View Post
it's not the stuff of legends at 2/5, so I don't think it would be at 1/3? The rake is worse but the players are much worse.

General rule of thumb I've seen is, when you have an excess roll, whatever that means to you, you take shots at the next level game when it looks good.

If I was trying to move up from 1/3, I'd shot take a good 2/5 game when my roll was over $7,000 and it looked good. Buy in for 60bb, play tight, get a feel for the game.
It's not that I haven't or won't sit a 2/5 game; since August 2020 I have taken some 'shots' but they amount to less than 5% of my total hours played in the interval since then.

I'm just debating whether I should be increasing that number of hours/% playing time. I'm just not sure if/when I'll ever have it be my 'regular' game or even 1/3 of total playing time. Had mixed results during the last few trips to Vegas (yes, more 'pros' there), but overall didn't feel completely out of place. I'm just very conservative as it relates to BRM.

There is debate amongst my LHE friends as to which is more preferable: $25/hr at 10/20 where competition was softer (lower variance) vs. $30/hr in 20/40 where competition was much more skilled (and variance somewhat higher).

Move up on the LHE ladder was different because again, mistake there 'only' costs one (more) big bet (albeit a big bet at 20/40 is twice that of 10/20).
sam7595 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2021, 10:51 PM   #25387
browni3141
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,114
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sam7595 View Post
4. Assuming 1 BI = 100BB = 5% total 20 BI BR & 1 STDV = 100BB/hr, then with a ~34% possibility of losing/risking <10% total BR within as little as two hours, isn't that putting RoR = ~7-10% (excluding availability/possibility of larger max BIs [133.3-166.7BB or even 200BB], and something well within the variance of poker independent of (winning) player skill? Wouldn't a 40-50 BI BR bring RoR ~<1-2% or ~3% (even with 200BB BI & 100BB/hr STDV).*,**
You can't talk about RoR without win-rate, so I have no idea how you're getting any of these numbers.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2021, 11:07 PM   #25388
sam7595
centurion
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 136
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
You can't talk about RoR without win-rate, so I have no idea how you're getting any of these numbers.
WR 3BB/hr, RoR = ?
WR 5BB/hr, RoR = ?
WR 7BB/hr, RoR = ?

I'm guessing at WR = 10+ BB/hr, RoR (20 BI BR, 1 BI = 100BB, 100BB/hr = 1 STDV) is at/near/approaches zero as WR (further) increases?
sam7595 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2021, 11:35 PM   #25389
browni3141
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,114
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sam7595 View Post
WR 3BB/hr, RoR = ?
WR 5BB/hr, RoR = ?
WR 7BB/hr, RoR = ?

I'm guessing at WR = 10+ BB/hr, RoR (20 BI BR, 1 BI = 100BB, 100BB/hr = 1 STDV) is at/near/approaches zero as WR (further) increases?
I posted a link to a calculator very recently.

It's based on the formula RoR = e^(-2*μ*B/σ^2)

Where μ is winrate, B is bankroll and σ is standard deviation.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2021, 02:45 AM   #25390
sevencard2003
banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: las vegas
Posts: 2,642
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I’m back down to about 5 BI live. Ironically, I’m crushing online and trying to figure out if I should withdraw some to supplement my real life roll.
nice. ive always wished i could win online instead of winning live, but i just cant win online. it would be so nice not to pay $1000-1500 a month with lyft and uber all the time to get around (almost always after dark, so using a bus is out of the question). or to have to depend on a friend who is able to drive since im not able to. but i lose my ass constantly online so i go to a casino. it just wouldnt make sense to play online where i cant win and often keep rebuying online poker money from others $20 here, $200 there, until its gone, when i on average make over $5000 a month in live PLO games

ive never understood why winning live is such easy money when winning online is next to impossible. people in 1 cent 2 cent games online are world class experts and people in live $1-3 PLO keep rebuying in $1000 and just give it away
sevencard2003 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2021, 06:03 AM   #25391
Yeodan
veteran
 
Yeodan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Belgium, Antwerp
Posts: 3,050
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
ive never understood why winning live is such easy money when winning online is next to impossible
Most of the live players are there to have fun and play too many hands, which is one of the worst mistakes you can make in poker.
Having too many hands pre leads to huge mistakes post that are impossible to avoid.

It's easy to press the fold button when you have 4-50 tables running online.
Folding for 2 hours straight because you're card dead live is impossible for most people.
Yeodan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2021, 06:33 AM   #25392
iraisetoomuch
banned
 
iraisetoomuch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,453
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^ mostly this.
But also:
database for objectively seeing how you're doing in certain spots helps you get very much faster
You can play 10x+ more hand per hour so you're going to get better faster (or if you suck you'll lose your money faster)
iraisetoomuch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2021, 01:30 PM   #25393
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sam7595 View Post
5. 10+ BB/hr winning rate at 1/3 sustainably over a longer duration interval (i.e. 1500 hrs or 12 months, whichever comes first) while not impossible, is the stuff of legends? Is there a performance metric indicator that would denote time to move up? I anticipate at $5BB game level that Darwinian-like evolution would force me to improve?
My best run at 1/3 NL was over a sample size of just over 1000 hours, at 12.79 bb/hr.

My worst run at 1/3 NL was pretty much right after that, a little 1300 hour stretch at 3.97 bb/hr.

Ditto for yearly comparisons (where I admittedly only get in ~550ish hours per year), but my best one was a full *4.5* times better than my worse one.

The point is that over any individual lol 1000 hour stretch you'll probably have an ok idea if you're a winner versus breakeven versus a loser, but other than that you probably shouldn't base too many decisions on doing x if you're at n versus doing y if you're at m, because n and m are likely a lot closer than you think.

If the game looks good and you have a decent outside bankroll taking care of you bills, and you want to sit in it and give it a go, then no harm in doing so. Waiting until you are at n versus m isn't going to tell you very much, imo.

Gjustbasedonmyownidiotexperience,nothingmoreG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2021, 02:49 PM   #25394
Tanqueray
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
Posts: 1,036
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you have to drive 30 minutes to play and it's the most exciting thing you're doing all week, then you are probably not going to just sit there.
Tanqueray is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2021, 02:23 AM   #25395
Pork Fri Rize
Pooh-Bah
 
Pork Fri Rize's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Elbow reconstructive surgery center
Posts: 5,315
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just completed my 30th session since mid April where I have been all in with my stack at risk one time, and it required me flopping quads to do so. Half those sessions have been less than 4 hours due to game dynamics. Table changing when mine becomes not good, getting to a new game, stacks leaving, left playing short with no action and or short stacks etc. Constantly losing or winning the minimum with premiums. A slow drip at 2/5 for 6 weeks down 3 buyins . Never had a stretch like this but good gosh it is agitating as hell....keep telling myself I'll eventually get out of this rut but damn after never experiencing seemingly the same scenarios night in night out over this time it seems like it won't happen.
Pork Fri Rize is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2021, 04:48 AM   #25396
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,731
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
My best run at 1/3 NL was over a sample size of just over 1000 hours, at 12.79 bb/hr.

My worst run at 1/3 NL was pretty much right after that, a little 1300 hour stretch at 3.97 bb/hr.

Ditto for yearly comparisons (where I admittedly only get in ~550ish hours per year), but my best one was a full *4.5* times better than my worse one.

The point is that over any individual lol 1000 hour stretch you'll probably have an ok idea if you're a winner versus breakeven versus a loser, but other than that you probably shouldn't base too many decisions on doing x if you're at n versus doing y if you're at m, because n and m are likely a lot closer than you think.

If the game looks good and you have a decent outside bankroll taking care of you bills, and you want to sit in it and give it a go, then no harm in doing so. Waiting until you are at n versus m isn't going to tell you very much, imo.

Gjustbasedonmyownidiotexperience,nothingmoreG
I’m not sure anyone has ever catalogued their decline in mental acuity in such detail. Congrats.


To the last poster- are your games consistently not good? Do you have any other options? Home games maybe?
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2021, 06:59 AM   #25397
Zen
stranger
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 10
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Allow me to chime in here to give some perspective from someone who had the poker life dream way back in 2010 and still loves to play the game today. BTW I am 36 years old.

I discovered poker via college classmate in 2010. Instantly fell in love with it. I was amazed by the money my classmate was making. It wasn't anything huge, but this was pre-Black Friday and he was cashing out $$$ thousands $$$ in tournament wins. Not to mention being able to log into Full Tilt Poker and watching the high-stakes games where hundreds of thousands of dollars were exchanging hands. I just got out of a 5 year stint in the Navy and was taking advantage of the post 9/11 GI bill. I was receiving about a $2k a month stipend.

$2,000 a month is great for a college student, as it allows you to study full-time without worry much about work or money. Long story short, I spent more and more time playing and studying poker and less time with school. I started to notice my grades slipping, but hey... I was actually starting to WIN at poker and was dreaming about 6-7 figures a year income while travelling and partying right?

Well Black Friday hit. Lost ability to play on the big sites. Poker in USA almost grinded to a halt, and we were relegated to semi-shady poker sites to continue playing. This killed about half my motivation and definitely big income possibilities while playing in the US. School wasn't going well, hard to catch up after neglecting my classes for a while. Eventually I ran out of benefits, had to get a $10/hr paying job and was thinking of taking a $10,000 loan and moving to Cambodia or Philippines to play poker full time. Thinking back today, I think this would have been very stupid. Although I admit part of me would have liked to try it to see what would have happened. Unfortunately you cannot go to your last saved checkpoint in life and try a new path or strategy.

Fortunately, I was able to secure a job at a big company by networking from a friend who was an employee. I was able to start at $60,000 a year. I am still working at the company today making $130,000 + benefits, WFH most days a week etc. I'm also married with one kid and I just got back into poker as a hobby / side-hustle. Went to the casino yesterday and made $500 at 1/3 in 3 hours. Felt good.

Now, time for the life lessons here.
  • Trying to earn a living off of poker while already being broke SUCKS. Don't do it. You start to place too much value into every hand and you can't make the best decisions because you are scared money.

  • Winrates are fun to talk and theorize about. However, that should not be your focus. As a player, you should be a student of the game. The high winrates will follow if you just focus on learning the game and being a better player.

  • Adding to the first point, don't quit your day job. Make poker a side hustle until you notice that you're making more money from poker consistently than your job with benefits.

  • IF you still decided you want to pursue poker only, then you better be ready to grind your F***ing brains out. I'm talking playing and studying. When you're not on the felt you better be studying. Deliberate practice hours a day. You need to eat, sleep, and breathe poker. This is for survival. Oh and you also should probably have 8-12 months living expenses saved. Give yourself 6 months to make it and if you don't, you still have a few months expenses to live off of to get a new job and to save up for another shot while you are still doing poker as a side hustle.


Finally, be prepared for anything that comes your way. I didn't think Black Friday would hit when it did. You should imagine the worst case scenarios and your response for each of them. What would you do if another Black Friday hit, effectively closing up the remaining sites? What would you do if you lost your job? What if you weren't as good as you thought you were? What if you run out of money? You don't want to be surprised. Be prepared for anything.

I think this is good enough. I may edit and add a few more points as I think of them. Good Luck.
Zen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2021, 08:00 AM   #25398
Petrucci
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,265
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pork Fri Rize View Post
Just completed my 30th session since mid April where I have been all in with my stack at risk one time, and it required me flopping quads to do so. Half those sessions have been less than 4 hours due to game dynamics. Table changing when mine becomes not good, getting to a new game, stacks leaving, left playing short with no action and or short stacks etc. Constantly losing or winning the minimum with premiums. A slow drip at 2/5 for 6 weeks down 3 buyins . Never had a stretch like this but good gosh it is agitating as hell....keep telling myself I'll eventually get out of this rut but damn after never experiencing seemingly the same scenarios night in night out over this time it seems like it won't happen.
Just hang in there Pork. Variance can be alot worse than most people realize. Its often hard to get a grip around it before you get to feel it yourself. You hear winning players talk about 300-400 hour breakeven stretches and absolutely scary long losing streaks, and i guess we often just dont want to face it. Like, its soul crushing enough when we do end up experiencing it.

Its not long since i started to climb out of a soulcrushing downswing. It is as challenging as ever to do. That downswing actually made me take 10 days off to really cool down and reset properly mentally,wich i havent felt the need to do in several years.

You will get out of it eventually, its all about keeping a clear head and keep making +EV plays.
Petrucci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2021, 11:26 AM   #25399
Pork Fri Rize
Pooh-Bah
 
Pork Fri Rize's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Elbow reconstructive surgery center
Posts: 5,315
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ty. Yeah. Just bizzare that the same circumstances seem to have happened in like 26 of those 30 sessions. Most especially the times where I'm losing no more than 50 In a hand all night and hardly ever making it past a turn voluntarily . Then I will get involved with a premium and might lose 1-200 due to crappy run-outs etc preventing me from doing something. Most I've lost in a hand in this stretch was 400, which again is bizarre for 2/5 game. Not wishing nfor worse though lol
Pork Fri Rize is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2021, 07:01 PM   #25400
05240514
newbie
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Diego
Posts: 23
What's currently considered a good win rate for 2/5 and 5/10

Out of curiosity
05240514 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:05 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive