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Old 05-12-2021, 12:54 PM   #25301
JayKon
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DeadMoneyWalking View Post
Dang if true. That place was it's own mint when it opened. It had become very dry by 2019 and sometimes unbeatable due to the snatch rake.
It was just a theory. After seeing some of the other theories related to stimulus checks and pros being weeded out, I don't like my theory much anymore.

It seems the games are a lot easier everywhere right now. Can't last much longer, maybe a couple more months.
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Old 05-12-2021, 01:09 PM   #25302
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by JayKon View Post
It was just a theory. After seeing some of the other theories related to stimulus checks and pros being weeded out, I don't like my theory much anymore.

It seems the games are a lot easier everywhere right now. Can't last much longer, maybe a couple more months.
I still don't understand this. Yeah, the games are probably a little softer here than pre-covid but I think that's mainly because online poker got legalized. It's not like the games ever weren't super soft, and I don't think they'll ever not be soft, even 50 years from now.
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Old 05-12-2021, 01:53 PM   #25303
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I still don't understand this. Yeah, the games are probably a little softer here than pre-covid but I think that's mainly because online poker got legalized. It's not like the games ever weren't super soft, and I don't think they'll ever not be soft, even 50 years from now.
Well, I thought I was just on an upswing. Ya know, just hitting random luck in cards and people that stack off with one pair. But that's never lasted more than a week and change. It's been happening for about 3 months now. So, I started looking for other explanations.

Also, I'm finding lots of the "bet small (for the pot) with weak hands" players, that will fold to a $100 pot size raise on the turn.

I will note that yesterday, a 1/3, 2/5 pro I recall was in the game. So, I think the word is spreading.

TLDR; The 1/3's are defiantly softer than normal right now.
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Old 05-12-2021, 02:08 PM   #25304
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Well, I thought I was just on an upswing. Ya know, just hitting random luck in cards and people that stack off with one pair. But that's never lasted more than a week and change. It's been happening for about 3 months now. So, I started looking for other explanations.

Also, I'm finding lots of the "bet small (for the pot) with weak hands" players, that will fold to a $100 pot size raise on the turn.

I will note that yesterday, a 1/3, 2/5 pro I recall was in the game. So, I think the word is spreading.

TLDR; The 1/3's are defiantly softer than normal right now.
You may just be starting to become more observant. None of this sounds out of the ordinary for LLSNL.
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Old 05-12-2021, 04:58 PM   #25305
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Keep it up jay interested in your journey
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Old 05-12-2021, 05:53 PM   #25306
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You may just be starting to become more observant. None of this sounds out of the ordinary for LLSNL.
Interesting. It feels the same, but maybe you're right.

I know one thing that's different. Got a set of kings beat today by 53s and when I saw it, I said: Wow, nice hand ... and meant it, then moved on. Not even worth posting the hand.
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Old 05-12-2021, 06:00 PM   #25307
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I'm currently on my longest break-even/downswing stretch. Out of 1500hrs of live play, I've been slightly losing over the last 100 hrs. Tbh, I'm starting to find it taking on my mental game getting sucked out on over and over. Probably running about 15% on coin flips over the last 20 or so. I know I'm playing solid poker, and keep grinding my stack up to lose it again in high variance spots where I have a slight to medium edge - which is quite frustrating for someone as accustomed to winning as I've become

Here are my biggest downswings / breakeven stretches.

1. -2500bb's from Aug '19 - Oct '19 over 85hrs all at deepstack $1/2 NL ($500 max)

2. Breakeven March '18 - Aug '18 over 110hrs at $1/3 NL ($300 max)

3. Breakeven April '21 - Present over 100hrs at $2/5 NL ($1000 max)

I have lost 600bb or more at a stretch in both of those breakeven stretches. Heck, I lost more than 600bb last night alone, but that was from a high point to low. Finished down 200bb overall in the session. That 'noise' gets lost in my spreadsheet since I only record BI and cash out amounts.

My swings are likely to be very muted despite the high variance play that I use because my win rates continue to be very high.

Total Results:

$1/2 NL : $29.45/hr over 537 hrs

$1/3 NL : $33.79/hr over 296 hrs

$2/5 NL : $112.39/hr over 593 hrs

Total sample is approaching 1500hrs so I feel fairly confident in relying on these stats as proof of my longterm winning play, but obviously the hourly will continue to swing wildly based on variance and the difficulty of the games.

GG: I'm sure that our play can affect the downswing. Obviously when we play bad we are more likely to lose, and high variance spots certainly will have higher swings. But avoiding the downswing seems impossible. No matter how nitty we are pre sometimes it just feels like the deck is stacked against us and we are always up against a set on every flop. Hope you get back on the tables soon. GL.
those are excellent results. nice one!
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Old 05-13-2021, 06:48 PM   #25308
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Is that bbs? So $5K? Lol, that sounds like a fun mental time, guessing you questioned everything including your own existence?

Ggogogo!imoG
Yes. A $5k down swing at 1-2. I quit poker for 6 months as a result. Which was needed to maintain my sanity.
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Old 05-13-2021, 07:06 PM   #25309
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Yes. A $5k down swing at 1-2. I quit poker for 6 months as a result. Which was needed to maintain my sanity.
At GG’s age, sanity is like, just being able to indicate to your caregiver that you need to get the the bathroom.
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Old 05-14-2021, 12:02 PM   #25310
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My 5K hours well post (which I actually wrote up pre-pandemic not realizing it would take me 1+ years and counting to get in my last ~40 hours) is mostly about how much consideration should our mental health factor into our poker method. Having a huge winrate is obviously awesome, but if it comes at a big cost (such as having to quit for huge periods of time) then I wonder if we should be aiming for a happier medium.

Gmaybemycaregivertookmyjacket?hasanyoneseenmyjacke t?G
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Old 05-14-2021, 07:32 PM   #25311
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This might be impossible to answer, but I’ve been playing a home game with a bunch of intelligent people (either in masters or phd programs or have a top job as a programmer in tech) who have all studied the game and understand the concepts of ranges, GTO, etc. I’ve been doing pretty well at this game and am thinking I might want to try playing more often at the casino. Do you think this game is comparable to a live 1/2 or 1/3 game? Stakes are similar.

Second, I plan to use a 20 buyin bankroll. Is this too aggressive?

Third, when I say buyin, I mean 100BB, not the max allowed buyin, which at some casinos could be $500 for a 1/3 game.
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Old 05-14-2021, 07:53 PM   #25312
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This might be impossible to answer, but I’ve been playing a home game with a bunch of intelligent people (either in masters or phd programs or have a top job as a programmer in tech) who have all studied the game and understand the concepts of ranges, GTO, etc. I’ve been doing pretty well at this game and am thinking I might want to try playing more often at the casino. Do you think this game is comparable to a live 1/2 or 1/3 game? Stakes are similar.

Second, I plan to use a 20 buyin bankroll. Is this too aggressive?

Third, when I say buyin, I mean 100BB, not the max allowed buyin, which at some casinos could be $500 for a 1/3 game.
I've found the 1/2 to be populated by nits and hit and run artists. The 1/3 would be a much better choice.
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:38 PM   #25313
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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This might be impossible to answer, but I’ve been playing a home game with a bunch of intelligent people (either in masters or phd programs or have a top job as a programmer in tech) who have all studied the game and understand the concepts of ranges, GTO, etc. I’ve been doing pretty well at this game and am thinking I might want to try playing more often at the casino. Do you think this game is comparable to a live 1/2 or 1/3 game? Stakes are similar.

Second, I plan to use a 20 buyin bankroll. Is this too aggressive?

Third, when I say buyin, I mean 100BB, not the max allowed buyin, which at some casinos could be $500 for a 1/3 game.
1/2 and 1/3 are entry level games which means most of the players are morons or young people. At least morons relative to the players you normally play with.

That doesn't mean the games are necessarily easier than your home game though. On paper, your home game is tougher but a lot of really smart people are really terrible at poker. A lot of that comes down to experience. If for instance a lot of the players at the casino play 100+hrs a month and have done so for many years, they are likely going to be better players than a bunch of rocket scientists that have been playing a home game a couple nights a month for the past 2 years.
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Old 05-14-2021, 09:22 PM   #25314
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^what DC says
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Old 05-14-2021, 10:24 PM   #25315
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1/2 and 1/3 are entry level games which means most of the players are morons or young people. At least morons relative to the players you normally play with.

That doesn't mean the games are necessarily easier than your home game though. On paper, your home game is tougher but a lot of really smart people are really terrible at poker. A lot of that comes down to experience. If for instance a lot of the players at the casino play 100+hrs a month and have done so for many years, they are likely going to be better players than a bunch of rocket scientists that have been playing a home game a couple nights a month for the past 2 years.
Yea that’s what I think too. Only thing to do is to play and compare.

Do y’all think 20BI is good enough?
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Old 05-14-2021, 10:31 PM   #25316
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Yea that’s what I think too. Only thing to do is to play and compare.

Do y’all think 20BI is good enough?
Based on what you say I think its ample.

however DC is correct that there are plenty of rocket scientists that absolutely suk at poker. If you are incinerating $ you may want to reevaluate your skillset.
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Old 05-15-2021, 01:34 AM   #25317
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Based on what you say I think its ample.

however DC is correct that there are plenty of rocket scientists that absolutely suk at poker. If you are incinerating $ you may want to reevaluate your skillset.
weirdly, it's also true that there are some great players who simply cannot get their rockets up beyond the trees
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Old 05-15-2021, 07:16 AM   #25318
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I now have 9 BI. $60/hr at $1/2 since my restart. I don’t remember $1/2 being this easy before. I must have improved.
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Old 05-15-2021, 07:41 AM   #25319
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I now have 9 BI. $60/hr at $1/2 since my restart. I don’t remember $1/2 being this easy before. I must have improved.

it sounds like it’s sustainable so it might be time to quit your job
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Old 05-15-2021, 08:05 AM   #25320
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If I can get it up to $70/hr by the end of the weekend I’ll type up my resignation letter. Should I give two weeks or just give them the finger and head downtown?
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Old 05-15-2021, 08:39 AM   #25321
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If I can get it up to $70/hr by the end of the weekend I’ll type up my resignation letter. Should I give two weeks or just give them the finger and head downtown?

If you can prove by the end of the weekend that $70 an hour is a realistic long term earn than I don’t know why you’d ever go back to work.

Hire a clown and pay him to resign for you by means of balloon messaging
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Old 05-15-2021, 12:29 PM   #25322
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Danger Will Robinson!

Do not quit your job based on a few month's results. The games are unusually easy right now.

And if you think $70/hr is sustainable in a 1/2 game, you're deluding yourself. If it really was that juicy, pros would move down to feed.
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Old 05-15-2021, 03:03 PM   #25323
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Danger Will Robinson!

Do not quit your job based on a few month's results. The games are unusually easy right now.

And if you think $70/hr is sustainable in a 1/2 game, you're deluding yourself. If it really was that juicy, pros would move down to feed.
Your sarcasm detector needs re-calibrating. Although I suppose a beginner could come along and take it as advice.
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Old 05-15-2021, 03:52 PM   #25324
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Your sarcasm detector needs re-calibrating. Although I suppose a beginner could come along and take it as advice.
Thank God!
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Old 05-15-2021, 04:23 PM   #25325
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I considered quitting my day job as a lawyer when I had a string of five-figure months last last year. Glad I didn't; first few months of 2021 have been relatively mediocre.

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