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Old 05-11-2021, 01:14 AM   #25276
Balerion1
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by JayKon View Post
In my area, I think they moved to the Indian casino that spreads a 2/5.
Thunder Valley??
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Old 05-11-2021, 01:18 AM   #25277
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Salsca11 View Post
How does everyone deal with downswings? I play 1/3 currently on a 1600 dollar down swing
i go straight to the nearest VBJ machine and try to get even in 1 bet.
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Old 05-11-2021, 04:50 AM   #25278
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Thunder Valley??
Graton, up toward Santa Rosa. Never been there.
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Old 05-11-2021, 11:08 AM   #25279
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I started the week with 5 BI in my poker roll. I now have 6.5 BI.


It is possible that COVID has somewhat cleansed live games of some of the low and mid range pros who were making it unprofitable. That's certainly true of online poker in the US with regard to Black Friday to now.
Please tell me this is a joke. Live poker is so unbelievably soft and was before covid. Most live pros are awful.
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Old 05-11-2021, 11:12 AM   #25280
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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
That's less than five buy-ins. That's not a downswing; that's just noise.
+1

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Old 05-11-2021, 11:12 AM   #25281
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Originally Posted by sixsevenoff View Post
Please tell me this is a joke. Live poker is so unbelievably soft and was before covid. Most live pros are awful.
Also +1

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Old 05-11-2021, 01:08 PM   #25282
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by sixsevenoff View Post
Please tell me this is a joke. Live poker is so unbelievably soft and was before covid. Most live pros are awful.
Haven’t played since COVID but couldn’t both be true? LolLivepro still existing and the temporary interruption of cash flow/ not being able to adjust to short breaking bottom of the barrel “pro”/regs
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Old 05-11-2021, 01:12 PM   #25283
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Graton, up toward Santa Rosa. Never been there.
I've played there. Last year when the game became 6 handed, their Friday/Saturday games were pretty good.

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Old 05-11-2021, 01:21 PM   #25284
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by sixsevenoff View Post
Please tell me this is a joke. Live poker is so unbelievably soft and was before covid. Most live pros are awful.
By definition, a pro has to be beating the game. This applies if they're awful, by your standard, or not.

Hell, by your standard, I'm undoubtedly awful. Yet, I'm also a very comfortable winner at 1/3. The difference you're ignoring is that:

When you're running away from a lion, you only need to be faster than the other guy, not faster than the lion.
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Old 05-11-2021, 01:28 PM   #25285
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Cuz I'm bored at work, I went thru my 1/3 NL stats just to see how often I've put in a $1500+ (500+bb) downswing over my 4959.5 hours to date (of which I've been holding at for 14 months, sigh).

I've only officially done it 3 times, although have come close another 3 times.

-$2866 July 13, 2014 - August 31, 2014 (3 wins - 7 losses)
-$2866 September 2, 2017 - October 27, 2017 (3 wins - 7 losses)
-$2309 March 8, 2015 - April 19, 2015 (1 win - 6 losses)

-$1486 October 12, 2015 - November 20, 2015 (2 wins - 7 losses)
-$1483 January 29, 2017 - April 9, 2017 (4 wins - 8 losses)
-$1481 May 15, 2016 - July 21, 2016 (2 wins - 9 losses)

Interestingly enough, it was the downswing in early 2017 that really got me to take a concentrated effort to switch my game up to my current even-nittier-than-before (is that even possible?) style. And then just a ~couple hundred hours later into 2017 I tie my record for worst ever downswing; lol, so much for an even nittier style helping prevent bad downswings.

Obviously I play a very nitty low variance style (in a game that mostly doesn't play particularly deepstacked) so I'm probably not going to have the frequency nor magnitude of downswings that others have. But still, it looks like I've averaged a ~$1500+ downswing every ~800 hours or so. Not too much of a concern if you're a winning player with a proven (whatever that means) track record. But with a less proven track record, then probably more of a concern.

GcluelessdownswingingnoobG
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Old 05-11-2021, 02:34 PM   #25286
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm currently on my longest break-even/downswing stretch. Out of 1500hrs of live play, I've been slightly losing over the last 100 hrs. Tbh, I'm starting to find it taking on my mental game getting sucked out on over and over. Probably running about 15% on coin flips over the last 20 or so. I know I'm playing solid poker, and keep grinding my stack up to lose it again in high variance spots where I have a slight to medium edge - which is quite frustrating for someone as accustomed to winning as I've become

Here are my biggest downswings / breakeven stretches.

1. -2500bb's from Aug '19 - Oct '19 over 85hrs all at deepstack $1/2 NL ($500 max)

2. Breakeven March '18 - Aug '18 over 110hrs at $1/3 NL ($300 max)

3. Breakeven April '21 - Present over 100hrs at $2/5 NL ($1000 max)

I have lost 600bb or more at a stretch in both of those breakeven stretches. Heck, I lost more than 600bb last night alone, but that was from a high point to low. Finished down 200bb overall in the session. That 'noise' gets lost in my spreadsheet since I only record BI and cash out amounts.

My swings are likely to be very muted despite the high variance play that I use because my win rates continue to be very high.

Total Results:

$1/2 NL : $29.45/hr over 537 hrs

$1/3 NL : $33.79/hr over 296 hrs

$2/5 NL : $112.39/hr over 593 hrs

Total sample is approaching 1500hrs so I feel fairly confident in relying on these stats as proof of my longterm winning play, but obviously the hourly will continue to swing wildly based on variance and the difficulty of the games.

GG: I'm sure that our play can affect the downswing. Obviously when we play bad we are more likely to lose, and high variance spots certainly will have higher swings. But avoiding the downswing seems impossible. No matter how nitty we are pre sometimes it just feels like the deck is stacked against us and we are always up against a set on every flop. Hope you get back on the tables soon. GL.
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Old 05-11-2021, 02:39 PM   #25287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon View Post
By definition, a pro has to be beating the game. This applies if they're awful, by your standard, or not.

Hell, by your standard, I'm undoubtedly awful. Yet, I'm also a very comfortable winner at 1/3. The difference you're ignoring is that:

When you're running away from a lion, you only need to be faster than the other guy, not faster than the lion.
Your argument is fine, I agree with it, I wasn't disputing it.

What I was saying is that it's ridiculous to say that there are LLSNL games that are unbeatable.
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Old 05-11-2021, 02:55 PM   #25288
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It’s just been a tough week of poker you are right saying 1600 is just about 5bi it’s just terrible getting it all in every time on turn with the nuts being 80-20 and just losing every time. I do have a small sample size it’s just really my first time losing 5 consecutive full bi just really started playing live poker beginning of this year
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Old 05-11-2021, 03:00 PM   #25289
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Originally Posted by Salsca11 View Post
It’s just been a tough week of poker you are right saying 1600 is just about 5bi it’s just terrible getting it all in every time on turn with the nuts being 80-20 and just losing every time. I do have a small sample size it’s just really my first time losing 5 consecutive full bi just really started playing live poker beginning of this year
If you've just started playing, then it really is more difficult to evaluate whether this is just one of those unfortunate downswings that you'll encounter from time to time or whether this is just going to be the long term par for the course due to the ~losing method you are using in your game.

Gtimewilltell,goodluck!G
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Old 05-11-2021, 03:02 PM   #25290
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Originally Posted by BlueSpade84 View Post
1. -2500bb's
Is that bbs? So $5K? Lol, that sounds like a fun mental time, guessing you questioned everything including your own existence?

Ggogogo!imoG
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Old 05-11-2021, 04:00 PM   #25291
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Perhaps I misspoke. Thanks for jumping all over it in proper internet etiquette.

What I meant was that they made the games tougher. Not unbeatable. There was a time when I could easily find a table with at least 7 fish with no clue and maybe 2-3 who had some idea even if it was just to lose more slowly. By the time COVID hit those numbers were flipped. Note, that I attribute most of that to the average poker “pro” being a dick and driving the fish away with their personalities more than their play.

The online games are night and day easier compared to a couple years ago. Maybe it’ll be similar for live games is all I’m saying.
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Old 05-11-2021, 04:11 PM   #25292
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Perhaps I misspoke. Thanks for jumping all over it in proper internet etiquette.

What I meant was that they made the games tougher. Not unbeatable. There was a time when I could easily find a table with at least 7 fish with no clue and maybe 2-3 who had some idea even if it was just to lose more slowly. By the time COVID hit those numbers were flipped. Note, that I attribute most of that to the average poker “pro” being a dick and driving the fish away with their personalities more than their play.

The online games are night and day easier compared to a couple years ago. Maybe it’ll be similar for live games is all I’m saying.
No mang, I got it. Your poast was ever so slightly nuanced and made perfect sense to me. But as evidenced some cant get from a to b with out an extensive road map
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Old 05-11-2021, 10:12 PM   #25293
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
If you've just started playing, then it really is more difficult to evaluate whether this is just one of those unfortunate downswings that you'll encounter from time to time or whether this is just going to be the long term par for the course due to the ~losing method you are using in your game.

Gtimewilltell,goodluck!G
Prior to this had 110 hours sample size was break even for that time.
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Old 05-11-2021, 11:24 PM   #25294
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Dude, 110 hours is half a day's work online. It's 3,000 hands. It's nothing.
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Old 05-11-2021, 11:33 PM   #25295
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Perhaps I misspoke. Thanks for jumping all over it in proper internet etiquette.

What I meant was that they made the games tougher. Not unbeatable. There was a time when I could easily find a table with at least 7 fish with no clue and maybe 2-3 who had some idea even if it was just to lose more slowly. By the time COVID hit those numbers were flipped. Note, that I attribute most of that to the average poker “pro” being a dick and driving the fish away with their personalities more than their play.

The online games are night and day easier compared to a couple years ago. Maybe it’ll be similar for live games is all I’m saying.
Games are better live, because a lot of the foreign traveling pros are back in their country while the COVID situation drew to the casino the people whose risk probability assessment skills were even worse than the pre-pandemic population. Games were better online because fish were bored, had nothing to do and this was as good a chance as any to donk off a couple of buyins.

Games in general were better because the government threw a lot of money and a lot of recreational spending had nowhere else to go.

There will be a transition period in which those factors help some. But in the end, my bet would be that the games would return to their constantly growing tougher trend.

Having said that, I 've been working on my game and I see areas in which I made mistakes. I also see mistakes other players make that I haven't been able to do before. This is an indication of how much money are still up for grabs. All the same, it's requiring more and more effort to improve and you would think that a lot of other people worked on their games during the COVID break. I would definitely expect a few people to be on a beast mode when things go back to normal.
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Old 05-11-2021, 11:35 PM   #25296
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It's like an hour of online play, or do players not 40 table anymore?
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Old 05-12-2021, 01:44 AM   #25297
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Not as easy, not as many tables available + sites tend to place limits on # of tables you play.
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Old 05-12-2021, 05:05 AM   #25298
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon View Post
In my area, I think they moved to the Indian casino that spreads a 2/5.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon View Post
Graton, up toward Santa Rosa. Never been there.
Dang if true. That place was it's own mint when it opened. It had become very dry by 2019 and sometimes unbeatable due to the snatch rake.
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Old 05-12-2021, 11:44 AM   #25299
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Salsca11 View Post
Prior to this had 110 hours sample size was break even for that time.
Yeah, so still really early going for you and you really have no idea how you are faring against your competition with your method.

You may want to post some hands that you're not 100% sure of and see what others think.

Ggoodluck!G
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Old 05-12-2021, 12:32 PM   #25300
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No mang, I got it. Your poast was ever so slightly nuanced and made perfect sense to me. But as evidenced some cant get from a to b with out an extensive road map
Maybe now that you're not working you could study the dictionary to try to avoid this situation from coming up again
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