Thanks Squidy,
yeah the pain didn't really seem that reasonable at the time lol

Quite the mind F×××

If anyone wants to chat about Australian rake feel free to PM me regarding winrates possible etc.

Main game at my local casino is 10%/$15 for 2/5 and ~6.5% /$20 for 5/5

You can't post the information you have in the thread?

Almost fully vaccinated and getting ready to get back to poker. Played 77 hours last year, 13,350 won, mostly 2/5/10 PLO. PLO at my casino has died it looks like, so gonna have to go back to hold'em.. hopefully it's gotten less nitty. Gonna guess some of the 'pros' had to find other income, so seems promising.

The hold'em at my re-opened local cardroom is definitely *not* nitty.

ObWinrate: 30bb/hour over twenty hours so far. Sustainable?

congrats on the sustained success Gator - awesome looking graph

Yes, but only if you're very good with table selection.

How does everyone deal with downswings? I play 1/3 currently on a 1600 dollar down swing

we analyse our play carefully and make sure we’re exercising appropriate bankroll management

No

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That's less than five buy-ins. That's not a downswing; that's just noise.

I started the week with 5 BI in my poker roll. I now have 6.5 BI.


It is possible that COVID has somewhat cleansed live games of some of the low and mid range pros who were making it unprofitable. That's certainly true of online poker in the US with regard to Black Friday to now.

In my area, I think they moved to the Indian casino that spreads a 2/5.

Thunder Valley??

i go straight to the nearest VBJ machine and try to get even in 1 bet.

Graton, up toward Santa Rosa. Never been there.

Please tell me this is a joke. Live poker is so unbelievably soft and was before covid. Most live pros are awful.

+1

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Also +1

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Haven’t played since COVID but couldn’t both be true? LolLivepro still existing and the temporary interruption of cash flow/ not being able to adjust to short breaking bottom of the barrel “pro”/regs

I've played there. Last year when the game became 6 handed, their Friday/Saturday games were pretty good.

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By definition, a pro has to be beating the game. This applies if they're awful, by your standard, or not.

Hell, by your standard, I'm undoubtedly awful. Yet, I'm also a very comfortable winner at 1/3. The difference you're ignoring is that:

When you're running away from a lion, you only need to be faster than the other guy, not faster than the lion.

Cuz I'm bored at work, I went thru my 1/3 NL stats just to see how often I've put in a $1500+ (500+bb) downswing over my 4959.5 hours to date (of which I've been holding at for 14 months, sigh).

I've only officially done it 3 times, although have come close another 3 times.

-$2866 July 13, 2014 - August 31, 2014 (3 wins - 7 losses)
-$2866 September 2, 2017 - October 27, 2017 (3 wins - 7 losses)
-$2309 March 8, 2015 - April 19, 2015 (1 win - 6 losses)

-$1486 October 12, 2015 - November 20, 2015 (2 wins - 7 losses)
-$1483 January 29, 2017 - April 9, 2017 (4 wins - 8 losses)
-$1481 May 15, 2016 - July 21, 2016 (2 wins - 9 losses)

Interestingly enough, it was the downswing in early 2017 that really got me to take a concentrated effort to switch my game up to my current even-nittier-than-before (is that even possible?) style. And then just a ~couple hundred hours later into 2017 I tie my record for worst ever downswing; lol, so much for an even nittier style helping prevent bad downswings.

Obviously I play a very nitty low variance style (in a game that mostly doesn't play particularly deepstacked) so I'm probably not going to have the frequency nor magnitude of downswings that others have. But still, it looks like I've averaged a ~$1500+ downswing every ~800 hours or so. Not too much of a concern if you're a winning player with a proven (whatever that means) track record. But with a less proven track record, then probably more of a concern.

GcluelessdownswingingnoobG

I'm currently on my longest break-even/downswing stretch. Out of 1500hrs of live play, I've been slightly losing over the last 100 hrs. Tbh, I'm starting to find it taking on my mental game getting sucked out on over and over. Probably running about 15% on coin flips over the last 20 or so. I know I'm playing solid poker, and keep grinding my stack up to lose it again in high variance spots where I have a slight to medium edge - which is quite frustrating for someone as accustomed to winning as I've become

Here are my biggest downswings / breakeven stretches.

1. -2500bb's from Aug '19 - Oct '19 over 85hrs all at deepstack $1/2 NL ($500 max)

2. Breakeven March '18 - Aug '18 over 110hrs at $1/3 NL ($300 max)

3. Breakeven April '21 - Present over 100hrs at $2/5 NL ($1000 max)

I have lost 600bb or more at a stretch in both of those breakeven stretches. Heck, I lost more than 600bb last night alone, but that was from a high point to low. Finished down 200bb overall in the session. That 'noise' gets lost in my spreadsheet since I only record BI and cash out amounts.

My swings are likely to be very muted despite the high variance play that I use because my win rates continue to be very high.

Total Results:

$1/2 NL : $29.45/hr over 537 hrs

$1/3 NL : $33.79/hr over 296 hrs

$2/5 NL : $112.39/hr over 593 hrs

Total sample is approaching 1500hrs so I feel fairly confident in relying on these stats as proof of my longterm winning play, but obviously the hourly will continue to swing wildly based on variance and the difficulty of the games.

GG: I'm sure that our play can affect the downswing. Obviously when we play bad we are more likely to lose, and high variance spots certainly will have higher swings. But avoiding the downswing seems impossible. No matter how nitty we are pre sometimes it just feels like the deck is stacked against us and we are always up against a set on every flop. Hope you get back on the tables soon. GL.

Your argument is fine, I agree with it, I wasn't disputing it.

What I was saying is that it's ridiculous to say that there are LLSNL games that are unbeatable.