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Old 03-02-2021, 09:15 PM   #25201
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Ok, just trying to figure out what "pretty much win every session" means, and I'm guessing 75% isn't that ridiculous, especially if you mostly attempt to play until unstuck. I'm at 66% myself at 1/3 NL (mostly always leaving at a predetermined time), but over a lol 627 session sample size.

I've also never been on a 1000bb downswing, but again lol sample size of only ~5K hours, and obviously very low variance style. But if I ever played for a living I know the bigger the BR the better with regards to mental health, so I have zero problem with people overestimating versus underestimating in this regards.

GcluelessexpectationsnoobG
You've been able to accomplish these things without being super great at poker nor having adapted your game much over the years. I have much more experience playing poker than the vast majority of Live Low Stakes players, but it's not like I play really good poker all the time. I'd say I play pretty bad really. At times I have fancy play syndrome, I gamble too much, and I struggle with mental game issues...not as often as earlier in my poker career but even a short lapse in focus can be very costly since I don't play predefined ranges like a typical TAG might. Still most of the opposition is playing much worse than me which makes it very difficult to lose.
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Old 03-03-2021, 02:15 AM   #25202
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think that it also bears mentioning that there may be big difference between a person's view of BI's. I consider a BI to be 100bb. So if you are short stacking with 20bb, you will need more BIs if you mean 20bb but likely not as many $$s.

When I'm playing 200-500bb deep on a daily basis, my variance goes up dramatically. I don't see how it's possible to play deep and not end up down swinging a 1000bb (might be just a couple bad hands). It seems that my win rate has also come up a lot along with my variance as I play deeper more regularly.
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Old 03-03-2021, 02:40 AM   #25203
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Sure if you buy in deep and the game plays big then the variance can be way higher. In my last session a player at my table was stacked for like $7k flush over flush. The game has a table match so the player took an immediate $7k hit to his roll. Even though the stakes were technically 2/5 the hand was more comparable to a $10/$20 hand. Buying in for $7k into a game that plays big is not really comparable to the swings one can expect in a typical live low stakes games.
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Old 03-27-2021, 06:30 AM   #25204
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I think that it also bears mentioning that there may be big difference between a person's view of BI's. I consider a BI to be 100bb. So if you are short stacking with 20bb, you will need more BIs if you mean 20bb but likely not as many $$s.

When I'm playing 200-500bb deep on a daily basis, my variance goes up dramatically. I don't see how it's possible to play deep and not end up down swinging a 1000bb (might be just a couple bad hands). It seems that my win rate has also come up a lot along with my variance as I play deeper more regularly.
I guess one shouldn't care much about session results, but I think it's human nature, and one thing I like about playing short stack is that every hand is impactful and no single hand will make or break your session. Being stacked AA vs KK with a 60bb stack is no big deal. I can literally win 50% of my stack back on the next hand without even going to showdown.

I recently started buying in deep to 2/5. The first time I did this I bought in for $3.5k. In one hand I ended up 4-betting to $600, 1 player called all in, and a loose maniac who covered me also called $600. Long story short, flop was 884r, I had KK, the all in opponent had KK, and the loose maniac had 85 which left us both drawing dead on the flop.

Fortunately the run out was such that I only lost another $600 bet on the hand. I could have easily lost $3.5k, but as it stood I still lost $1.2k. The maniac ended up leaving and the table reverted to a normal 2/5 game that was playing pretty small. That was literally the only hand that played big the entire session. That's probably the one thing I really don't like about playing super deep. 1 or 2 hands can completely make or break your session. If I play perfect poker as a short stack, I might as well have a printing press just printing money. However, if you play perfect poker deep, 1 hand could cause you to lose your ass.

Of course it's all one session so who cares blah blah blah.
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Old 03-28-2021, 12:47 AM   #25205
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Exactly. This is why it is important to have a proper bankroll. When playing deep the variance can be large. So have more BI's makes sense not only from a ROR standpoint, but from a mental/emotional standpoint to be able to see a large losing session (say 3-4k) and it not phase you 'cuz you are properly rolled.

If I've only got 20 BI's (at 100bb BI's - so 2000bb = $10k) a $3k losing session is catastrophic. But if I've got a $50k bankroll, not so bad.

Short stacking is a viable strategy that takes little skill to implement and can regularly turn a profit because players are so bad at adjusting to it. However, once multiple players start short-stacking it sure sucks the fun out of the game. And if players are at all decent and adjust (which is far easier than adjusting to a good deep stack player) then much of that profit dries up. I've also seen tables simply break when too many short-stackers show up, as most people are interested in a fun time at the table and seeing flops, something that short-stack play generally discourages.
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Old 03-28-2021, 06:36 AM   #25206
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60bbs is a relative short stack for live but it's far too deep for a prototypical short stack strategy. I'd say it takes a lot more skill/knowledge/experience and a hell of a lot more work to play a 60bb LAG strategy than it does to play a typical 100-200bb TAG strategy that most winning live players implement.
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Old 03-28-2021, 06:49 AM   #25207
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I have an infinite bankroll, but I still prefer printing money over leaving it up to the luck of a single hand or two to determine how my session goes. Of course, if every hand plays deep it's no big deal, as it's just like playing a T/20 rather than 2/5 but when the game is playing like a 2/5 and then just a handful of hands play like a T/20 then the variance sucks because it will take a very long time to realize your expectations over the long run.

I'd prefer to play T/20 with 100bbs rather than 2/5 with 400bbs if the 2/5 game is mostly playing like a 2/5.
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Old 03-28-2021, 12:44 PM   #25208
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I have an infinite bankroll, but I still prefer printing money over leaving it up to the luck of a single hand or two to determine how my session goes. Of course, if every hand plays deep it's no big deal, as it's just like playing a T/20 rather than 2/5 but when the game is playing like a 2/5 and then just a handful of hands play like a T/20 then the variance sucks because it will take a very long time to realize your expectations over the long run.

I'd prefer to play T/20 with 100bbs rather than 2/5 with 400bbs if the 2/5 game is mostly playing like a 2/5.
Wouldn't you need a larger bankroll for the former than the latter?
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Old 03-29-2021, 11:30 AM   #25209
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For sure, but bankroll is not the issue. For me it's more about consistency. We can expect ups and downs in any form of poker but in live cash games I have the expectation that I will win consistently month in and month out. If I play in 5 monster pots in a month and I run below expectations in all 5 then it doesn't matter if I played perfect poker all month long, that's a losing month. By contrast, one month I lost all in preflop 7 times (0-7) with AA and still had a big winning month.
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Old 03-30-2021, 01:02 AM   #25210
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
For sure, but bankroll is not the issue. For me it's more about consistency. We can expect ups and downs in any form of poker but in live cash games I have the expectation that I will win consistently month in and month out. If I play in 5 monster pots in a month and I run below expectations in all 5 then it doesn't matter if I played perfect poker all month long, that's a losing month. By contrast, one month I lost all in preflop 7 times (0-7) with AA and still had a big winning month.
How many hours do you play on an average month?
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Old 03-30-2021, 04:19 AM   #25211
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

i finally met dream crusher in person shortly before leaving Texas, and i used to think hes a troll. but from seeing him in the poker room, he seems to actually be a good player. i will bet he wins. and very few good players live in dallas. thats why games are better in texas. i shouldve stayed there instead of coming to florida.
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Old 03-30-2021, 06:40 AM   #25212
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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How many hours do you play on an average month?
I'm trying to limit myself to 20 hrs a week but have yet to achieve that in the past 5 months. This month I put in 160hrs (+4 hrs for a free roll tournament).
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Old 03-30-2021, 06:41 AM   #25213
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i finally met dream crusher in person shortly before leaving Texas, and i used to think hes a troll. but from seeing him in the poker room, he seems to actually be a good player. i will bet he wins. and very few good players live in dallas. thats why games are better in texas. i shouldve stayed there instead of coming to florida.
It was a pleasure meeting you. Many of the better players from Dallas moved to Florida a few years back. Best of luck to you there!
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Old 04-05-2021, 02:00 PM   #25214
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
i finally met dream crusher in person shortly before leaving Texas, and i used to think hes a troll. but from seeing him in the poker room, he seems to actually be a good player. i will bet he wins. and very few good players live in dallas. thats why games are better in texas. i shouldve stayed there instead of coming to florida.
I met/lived with him in Dallas too; I can confirm that he's not a troll most of the time
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Old 04-05-2021, 05:59 PM   #25215
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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So did that end up being a winning session or a losing session?
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I've lost 5 buy-ins in less than 20 minutes playing AA AA KK AA QQ

came back to a small win compared to chips in play

$1-2 game with $300 max buy-in
floor texted me over 10k on the table and held me a seat as I live 10 min away.

when the game broke there was close to 16k on the table
2 whales blind shoving pre or betting $140 pre every hand and a station calling pre and then with any piece of the flop right to the river.
not a game for the timid

to GG's point
I now leave at my usual time no matter how good the game and no matter if Im ahead or behind. In my younger days would stay but got over that stigma.

variance is a part of life on and off the felt
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Old 04-06-2021, 08:03 PM   #25216
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Sounds like an extremely -ev poker rule, but if +ev for your life then life>>>>poker.
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Old 04-07-2021, 11:46 AM   #25217
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Sounds like an extremely -ev poker rule, but if +ev for your life then life>>>>poker.
My fave quote from this forum is buried in this thread somewhere: it's Ava's "But I'm still here" quote. It was in reference to his game quitting techniques, which in a vacuum looked -EV in the moment compared to the techniques that all the young buck pros in his game were using. But in the end, thanks to all his little "-EV in-the-moment" rules, he managed to outlast all his opponents over the very long term. Computers will obviously thrive going full steam ahead all the time; humans, not so much. It's a long haul game.

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Old 04-07-2021, 11:40 PM   #25218
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
My fave quote from this forum is buried in this thread somewhere: it's Ava's "But I'm still here" quote. It was in reference to his game quitting techniques, which in a vacuum looked -EV in the moment compared to the techniques that all the young buck pros in his game were using. But in the end, thanks to all his little "-EV in-the-moment" rules, he managed to outlast all his opponents over the very long term. Computers will obviously thrive going full steam ahead all the time; humans, not so much. It's a long haul game.

Gcourse,Avaisnolongerpostinghere,soquotenowbecomes superironicaswellG
Won't say it's a terrible approach, but strong mental game is a skill too, and one that can and should be improved for any who plan on playing for a living. It's better to improve your weaknesses than make sacrifices elsewhere to cover them up. If you are a pro and quitting when you lose a few buyins because you know you're prone to tilt without recognizing it, that's great, keep doing that, but also get your ass working on fixing it because it's a problem.

IMO, the biggest reason it feels terrible to lose a few stacks live is because it's so slow paced and hard to see the long run. It may have taken awhile to win that money, and may take awhile to win it back.

I recommend playing online. It's easier to be confident in your game when you've beaten online over a significant sample, when live games are much easier, and you can actually start to see the long run in just a couple weeks. You end up being desensitized to losing after being stacked hundreds, eventually thousands of times. It becomes normal and expected to lose with set over set, flush vs. full house, KK vs. AA, etc. In live poker it can take so long to get those hands that you feel entitled to win with them, so losing hurts more.

I'd also recommend getting more aggressive and bluffing more. For me, I started feeling less pain getting stacked when I had enough confidence in my game to throw in a river x/r all in and being ok knowing I could get snapped by the nuts. You really can't bluff (or thin value bet, for that matter) effectively without being aware of and accepting that the consequences could be negative 60% of the time. You'll also get better at poker by trying to expand your game and find more profitable spots.

But this is all in the context of a pro who wants to get better, not necessarily a rec who just wants to play a few times a month, have a good time and maybe make a little money.
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Old 04-09-2021, 09:42 PM   #25219
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What is proper bankroll for 1/3 at 100bb buy in? Just really started playing live poker this year . After 68 hours of play in the red 990. Last 2 sessions lost 300 each queens ran into aces pf then turning the nuts only for flush to hit on river. At end of day I know it’s a small sample size. Just don’t think I am losing player at the end of that day . Any advice for swings/variance like this?
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Old 04-09-2021, 10:07 PM   #25220
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What is proper bankroll for 1/3 at 100bb buy in? Just really started playing live poker this year . After 68 hours of play in the red 990. Last 2 sessions lost 300 each queens ran into aces pf then turning the nuts only for flush to hit on river. At end of day I know it’s a small sample size. Just don’t think I am losing player at the end of that day . Any advice for swings/variance like this?
My pocket bankroll is $500 and I buy-in for $200. While I can easily get more from the ATM, I seldom need to.

As to the QQ hand. Post it. Frankly, depending on the player, it's not that hard to fold.
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Old 04-09-2021, 10:12 PM   #25221
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My pocket bankroll is $500 and I buy-in for $200. While I can easily get more from the ATM, I seldom need to.

As to the QQ hand. Post it. Frankly, depending on the player, it's not that hard to fold.
Utg+2 makes it 13 , 3 callers im on cutoff look down at qq I make it 45. +2 jams for 280 . Player not at table very long did see him get sticky once
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Old 04-09-2021, 10:20 PM   #25222
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Utg+2 makes it 13 , 3 callers im on cutoff look down at qq I make it 45. +2 jams for 280 . Player not at table very long did see him get sticky once
Format it a little more and post it in the LLSNL. Let everyone see it.
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Old 04-09-2021, 10:46 PM   #25223
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Salsca11 View Post
What is proper bankroll for 1/3 at 100bb buy in? Just really started playing live poker this year . After 68 hours of play in the red 990. Last 2 sessions lost 300 each queens ran into aces pf then turning the nuts only for flush to hit on river. At end of day I know it’s a small sample size. Just don’t think I am losing player at the end of that day . Any advice for swings/variance like this?
Until you can actually demonstrate you are a winner, you should be looking at a budget, not a bankroll.

You seem inexperienced if you're concerned about a 2 buy in downswing. It's possible for even the very best players to have 15+ buy in downswings. Even if you're winning, if you only have a small win-rate your downswings can be much more severe.

Not sure I have advice except you'd better get used to dropping a buyin two sessions in a row. Much worse can and will happen.
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Old 04-09-2021, 10:47 PM   #25224
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You'd be best to assume you are a losing player and work to improve your game.

Losing 2 pots totaling $600 at 1/3 is not a significant amount whatsoever. The fact that you felt compelled to post that shows that you have bankroll issues (or mental game issues related to bankroll).
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Old 04-09-2021, 10:56 PM   #25225
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Until you can actually demonstrate you are a winner, you should be looking at a budget, not a bankroll.

You seem inexperienced if you're concerned about a 2 buy in downswing. It's possible for even the very best players to have 15+ buy in downswings. Even if you're winning, if you only have a small win-rate your downswings can be much more severe.

Not sure I have advice except you'd better get used to dropping a buyin two sessions in a row. Much worse can and will happen.
Well, I was trying to be gentler, but yes.
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