Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-22-2021, 01:08 AM   #25176
AlanBostick
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
AlanBostick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: twitch.tv/pokershaman59
Posts: 10,854
Re: Kelly Criterion calculator

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Kelly Criterion has to do with bet sizing vs percentage of roll. Each stack at a cash table is not a bet, whereas each buy in for a tournament or SNGs is, in that you'll either get a return on it or lose it. Trying to use it for cash game BRM makes no sense unless you are basically playing a shove or fold strategy.
If you are thinking of win rate and variance, your buy-in to a game is very like a bet. You put money on the table, play a while, and then take money off the table. The amount you take off the table after a specific time is going to be related to the amount you put on the table by some probabilty distribution, and that distribution is going to have a mean and a variance (and higher-order statistical moments, but let's leave those alone). We have a mean and a variance, and so we can compute our Kelly criterion.

Bear in mind that the way we change our bet size in our attempt to maximize log(rate of bankroll growth) with poker cash games is by changing the stakes we play, e.g. from 1-3 to 2-5 to 5-10 to 10-25 et cetera. (Do bear in mind that our win rates are going to be different at these different levels, and that impacts the size of bankroll Kelly prescribes.)

I haven't actually done this calculation for plausible NLHE win rates, but back in the day, when I was a limit hold'em pro, the conventional wisdom was that for limit hold'em, a winning player needed a bankroll of 300 big bets (not big blinds) to comfortably play at a particular stake. When you plug the typical winning player's win rate and variance into a Kelly calculation, it turns out that playing a 300-big-bet bankroll was the equivalent of about 1/3 of Kelly, and that the way to maximize log(bankroll growth) would be to play with a 100-bet bankroll . . . if you were disciplined about moving down in downswings as well as moving up in upswings.

The same people who recommended 300 bets for LHE recommended twenty buy-ins for NLHE. It is too much of a stretch to really say so, but if the relationship to Kelly was in fact the same for LHE and NLHE players, then a roll of only 7 buy-ins is all one needs to maximize log(bankroll growth), if, that is, you are as disciplined about moving down as you are aggressive in moving up.
AlanBostick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2021, 04:08 AM   #25177
browni3141
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,145
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/poke...uirements.html

Not exactly what was asked for, but useful. I'd be more concerned with RoR anyway, since you can't just infinitely move down in stakes when necessary. There are both absolute and practical lower bounds. If you're playing 1|2 live there's no lower stake. If you're playing 2|5 live moving to 1|2 might not be enough income to pay the bills depending on where/how you live.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2021, 04:20 PM   #25178
BlueSpade84
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 285
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Using only 7 BI as a bankroll is totally insane. Be prepared to change stake with every session. Which is not practical for live poker imo. Personally I have swing of minus 5BI on a monthly basis. Especially if you are counting a BI as 100bb and playing deeper.

I think that 20BI is very aggressive, and 40 BI is min if you are not actively replenishing. If I were to play exclusively I would want 100BI to avoid mental strain from losing sessions.

Thankfully I plan to have a job that pays my life bill's, and poker is a fun and profitable hobby.
BlueSpade84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2021, 04:32 PM   #25179
Dream Crusher
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dream Crusher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Dallas
Posts: 15,670
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah 7 buyins is pretty ridiculous unless the games just always play small. I lost $1500 in an hour of 1/2 to a single player while buying in for no more than $200 and never putting my money in bad (ok maybe one time). Last night I played in a 2/5 game where it was at least $100 to go if you wanted to see a flop. Good luck with 7 buyins!

100 buyins is also ridiculous though.
Dream Crusher is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2021, 05:46 PM   #25180
AlanBostick
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
AlanBostick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: twitch.tv/pokershaman59
Posts: 10,854
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/poke...uirements.html

Not exactly what was asked for, but useful. I'd be more concerned with RoR anyway, since you can't just infinitely move down in stakes when necessary. There are both absolute and practical lower bounds. If you're playing 1|2 live there's no lower stake. If you're playing 2|5 live moving to 1|2 might not be enough income to pay the bills depending on where/how you live.
If you are depleting your roll by taking money out for expenses you either shouldn't be using Kelly at all, or you should be accounting for your life rake before you figure your win rate and variance to compute your optimum Kelly bet size.
AlanBostick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2021, 09:24 PM   #25181
reaper6788
Pooh-Bah
 
reaper6788's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: bring online back to US!
Posts: 3,772
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Poker winrate - life rake makes complete sense.
reaper6788 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2021, 02:11 PM   #25182
BlueSpade84
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 285
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
100 buyins is also ridiculous though.
GL managing your stress and not life tilting if you plan to play for a living off a roll that gets threatened by a very normal (at least a couple times a year) downswing. 100 BI's is absolutely fine, and imo not even the most conservative if you consider playing for a living.

Remember that if you use the RoR calculations you must only include your effective winrate in the calculations. Winrate = winrate at tables - monthly budget.

So for example, if I am playing $2-5 with a winrate of $40/hr, and put in 120 hrs per month, and have monthly expenses of $2500. My monthly profit is ,...

$40 x 120 - $2500 = $2300 with a winrate of $2300/120hrs = ~ $19/hr. NOT $40/hr for bankroll calculation.

Assuming my std dev is around $600-700/hr (I personally calulate mine to be slightly higher, but play very deepstacked - never less than 200bb - which will increase the variance). I would need a bankroll of $40k - $50k to bring my risk of ruin down to 1-2 %. Granted this is conservative, but I'd rather be safe than broke.

An additional consideration that I have found through hard learned experience is that a computer has no issue playing the same as their bankroll diminishes, but I struggle. If I start playing with only a $20k roll at $2-5 and go on a $10k downswing, my roll starts looking VERY low and I'm going to struggle with managing my emotions and confidence. Notice also that moving down isn't really an option with a monthly nut of $2500. Moving down is the same as quiting as I won't make enough money to replenish my roll and need to get a job anyway.

I'm fine if people want to go broke everytime they have a downswing + life expense hit that coincides. But to suggest 100BI's is too much of a roll for a full time player is LOL ridiculous and I can't imagine it coming from someone who has actually walked that road.
BlueSpade84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2021, 02:27 PM   #25183
BlueSpade84
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 285
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

FWIW: I've been playing for my monthly nut for the last six months as I have been going to school and unemployed from my regular job due to COVID in March. After exhausting my UI benefits I started increasing my hours a little and poker has been my only source of income since Aug. '20.

I started with a $10k roll, and living expenses set aside for 9 months (time until I finished school and anticipate regular employment again). I have run really well and have managed to increase my roll significantly as well. I started at $1-2 NL ($300 BI) and started taking shots at $2-5 early and successfully and was able to move to $2-5 exclusively fairly quickly transitioning once I had $20k in the roll (while maintaining my 9 months expenses saved). Here are my stats during that time...

$1-2NL ($300BI): 199 hrs +$7497 WR: $37.7/hr = 18.8 bb/hr
$2-5NL ($1000BI): 269hrs +$35,938 WR: $133/hr = 26.6 bb/hr

I'm super happy about running like the flaming sun at $2/5, and also believe that the deeper stacked game has been beneficial.

There is no way I would have/could have taken the shots I have without having the life roll + bankroll thing squared away though. I'm sure that after this post I will take a hard nosedive as I'm way overdue for some variance to catch up to me.

Last edited by BlueSpade84; 03-01-2021 at 02:31 PM. Reason: accidently filtered out some $1-2 at a different location.
BlueSpade84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2021, 02:53 PM   #25184
DumbosTrunk
Pooh-Bah
 
DumbosTrunk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,254
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm breaking even/slightly winning over 300 hours or so. I think I've run into quads with top boat three times (in PLO), which is a lot over such a small live sample. In hold 'em, V has had a straight when I have a set very frequently as of late. Also, I may be playing too exploitably at 5/T, folding a lot of my bluffcatchers in capped spots versus capable Vs. But all things considered, pretty happy I am only breaking even and not hemorrhaging. And still winning monthly overall. People just seem to have it a lot against me lately, which is bound to happen from time to time. Some friends say I need to start calling river overbets more at 5/T. I wonder....
DumbosTrunk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2021, 05:49 PM   #25185
BlueSpade84
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 285
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Some friends say I need to start calling river overbets more at 5/T. I wonder....
Sounds like you've definitely had some run bad. I don't play PLO for two reasons. Frist, I'm bad at it. Second, the variance compared to winrate doesn't seem worth it to me right now.

I'm one of the only players in my pool that uses overbets frequently and I don't see players adjusting well to them at all. I will say this, I don't think that being in the situation of calling overbets is a very comfortable one, I'd much rather be the one making the overbets. Probably worth putting in some more time with the solver to identify ranges to call with if you are consistently facing those uncomfortable situations.
BlueSpade84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2021, 09:11 PM   #25186
sevencard2003
banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: las vegas
Posts: 2,642
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

the best person people in this thread can be listening to is ME, because ive played poker for 30 years with no income outside of gambling. a very small amount of the wins were on games other than poker, mostly all from poker. no monthly check or job of any kind, and only 1 small stimulus check of $1200 one time.

and sometimes ive had up to 600 plus buyins. (when short stacking $50 in 1-3 NL with a roll of 30k plus) but not often. my buyins are all over the place depending on how long ive been playing that day, if im up or down, or plan to quit soon. but i would definitely recommend 50-500 buyins. much less stressful.

of course, considering living expenses being about 3000 a month since i dont have the mental capacity to learn how to drive due to being born with autism and it costs about 1000 a month or more for Uber, i wouldnt have any roll if i took out 9-10 months expenses like the previous poster with 100 buyins did. so maybe 30k isnt that much for $1-3 NL, usually 1-3 NL with 2 hands of omaha PL and 1 double board bomb pot omaha.

i do know what im doing, ive never once been without a way to buyin and been out of action all that time. put in 365 days a year, about 2500 hours a year.
sevencard2003 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2021, 11:54 PM   #25187
BlueSpade84
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 285
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
the best person people in this thread can be listening to is ME, because ive played poker for 30 years with no income outside of gambling. a very small amount of the wins were on games other than poker, mostly all from poker. no monthly check or job of any kind, and only 1 small stimulus check of $1200 one time.

and sometimes ive had up to 600 plus buyins. (when short stacking $50 in 1-3 NL with a roll of 30k plus) but not often. my buyins are all over the place depending on how long ive been playing that day, if im up or down, or plan to quit soon. but i would definitely recommend 50-500 buyins. much less stressful.

of course, considering living expenses being about 3000 a month since i dont have the mental capacity to learn how to drive due to being born with autism and it costs about 1000 a month or more for Uber, i wouldnt have any roll if i took out 9-10 months expenses like the previous poster with 100 buyins did. so maybe 30k isnt that much for $1-3 NL, usually 1-3 NL with 2 hands of omaha PL and 1 double board bomb pot omaha.

i do know what im doing, ive never once been without a way to buyin and been out of action all that time. put in 365 days a year, about 2500 hours a year.

That is some super impressive lifetime achievements. Congrats!

I think it's worth mentioning that there are a number of ways to think about bankrolls. Certainly we agree that having more is far superior to having too little. As long as one is disciplined I dont see the need for a separate roll per se. But what is critical is how much money one is willing to play with while maintaining the ability to keep on playing. This is where different individuals having very different needs regarding the life roll or separating their bankroll.

When I was single I could life on much less and could more easily scrape together a few buy ins to get in the game. Now that I have a family, it is far more important to avoid going broke, and it is not an option to impact my families lifestyle over poker.

To be clear I'm not keeping a 100BI roll for myself. But I most certainly would if I intended on playing full time.
BlueSpade84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 12:33 AM   #25188
Dream Crusher
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dream Crusher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Dallas
Posts: 15,670
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueSpade84 View Post
GL managing your stress and not life tilting if you plan to play for a living off a roll that gets threatened by a very normal (at least a couple times a year) downswing.
I gotta be perfectly honest with you. I don't really have downswings, unless winning less than normal is a downswing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
the best person people in this thread can be listening to is ME
Which pretty much sums up the ridiculousness of this thread Winrates, bankrolls, and finances.

Congrats on your continued success!
Dream Crusher is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 01:24 AM   #25189
BlueSpade84
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 285
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

No downswings huh? Good for you!
BlueSpade84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 01:43 AM   #25190
Dream Crusher
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dream Crusher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Dallas
Posts: 15,670
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

When I mentioned 100 buyins being ridiculous I was strictly talking bankroll, not liferoll. Even when I played for a living, my life expenses were pretty much nothing so that's not something I really consider.

Anyways, I think we've had this discussion quite a few times and have come to the conclusion that crushing players will rarely ever go on $10k downswing in typical 2/5 games. That's why it's hard for me to grasp needing a $50k bankroll for 2/5.

Personally I just think if you lose a lot of buyins there is probably something wrong with your game. When I play well, I pretty much win every session and when I play poorly I win nearly all of my sessions too, so how the hell am I going to go on a $10k downswing? My guess is that players that go on these downswings are trying to push every single edge, even when the edges don't actually exist. That's when I tend to have my bigger losses.
Dream Crusher is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 05:33 AM   #25191
Petrucci
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,266
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
When I mentioned 100 buyins being ridiculous I was strictly talking bankroll, not liferoll. Even when I played for a living, my life expenses were pretty much nothing so that's not something I really consider.

Anyways, I think we've had this discussion quite a few times and have come to the conclusion that crushing players will rarely ever go on $10k downswing in typical 2/5 games. That's why it's hard for me to grasp needing a $50k bankroll for 2/5.

Personally I just think if you lose a lot of buyins there is probably something wrong with your game. When I play well, I pretty much win every session and when I play poorly I win nearly all of my sessions too, so how the hell am I going to go on a $10k downswing? My guess is that players that go on these downswings are trying to push every single edge, even when the edges don't actually exist. That's when I tend to have my bigger losses.


I agree with you on alot regarding these topics. Its worth as a reminder though that not everyone on this board is a crusher, and may go on bigger downswings as a result.

Either way, being overrolled is certainly the best option- and for experienced players its obvious why. In slow livepoker you can run over expectation for a freaking long time, months and even years if you dont log alot of hours to smooth variance out both ways. But when the death run hits you, even though its rare, you need that big bankroll to avoid going mentally crazy.

It also comes down to personality to some extend. How well are you built mentally, can you still show up to play good +EV poker after seing your 50 buyin bankroll being cut in half by the worst downswing in your life so you only have 25 buyins left? Can you really manage that stress?

If you play fulltime for a living with no other sources of income, i dont think 100 buyins is unreasonable. If you play parttime however, with another job on the side also bringing in money/or you have other sources of money coming in i agree that 100 buyins is taking it too far.

But i mean, after a couple of times into DGAFs "The Abyss", i really learned how important it is to play properly rolled, and if possible overrolled.
Petrucci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 12:02 PM   #25192
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,407
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
When I play well, I pretty much win every session and when I play poorly I win nearly all of my sessions too
What's your session winning percentage?

GcluelesswinningpercentagenoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 01:52 PM   #25193
Dream Crusher
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dream Crusher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Dallas
Posts: 15,670
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not everyone is a crusher but most people aren't even winners, correct? My guess is that most players that go on 50 buy-in downswings in live low stakes are not winners at all, or at the very least are not playing winning poker. These players may be better served to have a smaller bankroll.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
What's your session winning percentage?



GcluelesswinningpercentagenoobG
No clue, and not super relevant since I do often exercise the bad habit of not leaving until I am unstuck but if I had to guess historically it's probably around 80%, maybe 75%. Since getting back into live low stakes again and putting in lots of sessions starting in late October, it's over 90%, which obviously involves running above expectations.
Dream Crusher is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 02:15 PM   #25194
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,407
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ok, just trying to figure out what "pretty much win every session" means, and I'm guessing 75% isn't that ridiculous, especially if you mostly attempt to play until unstuck. I'm at 66% myself at 1/3 NL (mostly always leaving at a predetermined time), but over a lol 627 session sample size.

I've also never been on a 1000bb downswing, but again lol sample size of only ~5K hours, and obviously very low variance style. But if I ever played for a living I know the bigger the BR the better with regards to mental health, so I have zero problem with people overestimating versus underestimating in this regards.

GcluelessexpectationsnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 04:01 PM   #25195
snowman
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: ON THE ROAD AGAIN
Posts: 1,553
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
When I mentioned 100 buyins being ridiculous I was strictly talking bankroll, not liferoll. Even when I played for a living, my life expenses were pretty much nothing so that's not something I really consider.

Anyways, I think we've had this discussion quite a few times and have come to the conclusion that crushing players will rarely ever go on $10k downswing in typical 2/5 games. That's why it's hard for me to grasp needing a $50k bankroll for 2/5.

Personally I just think if you lose a lot of buyins there is probably something wrong with your game. When I play well, I pretty much win every session and when I play poorly I win nearly all of my sessions too, so how the hell am I going to go on a $10k downswing? My guess is that players that go on these downswings are trying to push every single edge, even when the edges don't actually exist. That's when I tend to have my bigger losses.
I've lost 5 buy-ins in less than 20 minutes playing AA AA KK AA QQ

Last edited by Garick; 03-02-2021 at 04:55 PM. Reason: chippy
snowman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 04:37 PM   #25196
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,407
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's why I asked the question snowman. 75% does seem high, but he does admit it is a guess plus that he mostly attempts to play until unstuck, so it doesn't seem completely farfetched.

GcluelessfarfetchednoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 04:55 PM   #25197
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,620
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I remind everyone of the rules they agree to when they come in to the is thread. Getting chippy in here. Stop it.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 04:56 PM   #25198
DumbosTrunk
Pooh-Bah
 
DumbosTrunk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,254
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Graphs and screenshots of PokerIncome or it didn't happen.
DumbosTrunk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 04:57 PM   #25199
squid face
ChatThreadPrez
 
squid face's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: grabbin c-notes from the money tree
Posts: 10,277
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
the best person people in this thread can be listening to is ME

squid face is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2021, 08:51 PM   #25200
Dream Crusher
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dream Crusher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Dallas
Posts: 15,670
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by snowman View Post
I've lost 5 buy-ins in less than 20 minutes playing AA AA KK AA QQ
So did that end up being a winning session or a losing session?
Dream Crusher is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:25 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive