+1 to browni's comments. Weekend win rates are higher that weekday rates. Less casual players.

Both instances of 1400 hands are meant to say 1400 hours, oops.

In my experience, the difference between weekdays and weekends is pretty overrated. My guess is that in most casino environments that it is pretty much the same crowd (especially in localized non-vacation destination environments, although even in destination environments you could argue you're just sitting with out-of-town regs). There may have been a time when you'd get some randos out at the casino on a Friday/Saturday night who randomly decided to try to sit in a poker game, but my belief is those days are long gone.

I'm pretty sure I've posted my day-by-day breakdown of my stats, and there didn't seem to be much rhyme or reason for any diffs. IIRC, the biggest takeaway is the days I logged the most hours at more closely reflected my overall winrate (not a surprise, i.e. the bigger your sample size the more accurate your results likely will be).

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Hey is there anyone here I can PM my spreadsheet? I have tracked my hours played, win/losses per session and the amount I've received from high hand promotions.

I guess I should have clarified. The $3-$10 is a full kill that allows overs, usually $25 or $50. I typically do not do overs but will from time to time if it seems beneficial. I use Poker Analytics for tracking but can not seem to figure out how to view results by game. There has to be a way to separate results for limit and NL but I have not figured it out yet.

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The best time to show up is when the whales do. That depends on the whale - is he skipping out of work midday to get some poker when the wife won't notice?
Do they work till 8 pm and then want to unwind on the weekend till 3am?
Is Tuesday night poker night?

Nice save mod’s. I almost posted something stupid.

I'd appreciate if someone looked at my spreadsheet and told me what they think. Whether they think my hourly rate is sustainable, or should I expect it to dip longer-term. Any advice from an experienced player would be appreciated. I just don't want to post it in the thread because of how public this is.

No one is likely to want to dig into your spreadsheet. If you just give us the bottom line, folks would likely be willing to give feedback.

just don't post your social security number and I'm pretty sure your true identity will remain a secret "ChainedOJ" if that even is your real name

but bottom line is you're going to get the standard "lolsample size" and "never rule out the possibility you're actually a losing player who's just ran really good"

some cliffs:

Depends on the stakes but >10bb/hour you're probably doing really well and either super talented or due for a correction

>15bb/hour 100% due for a correction and it's going to be painful because winning seems so easy right now

<3bb/hour unless you have serious evidence that you've run very poorly then you're not winning enough to survive an eventual bad run and will go busto

Variance calc: https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Exactly this. This is the mindset to have when you go at it. It sounds easy, but i see so many having bad mindset when it comes to when puttig in volume, when and where to play and so forth.

In the private games i regurarly attend, the whales often comes out between 22PM and midnight- and when they show up i play as long as they do, simple as that.

Hey people. I'll make this short. Rate my 2019 Live $1/2-$1/3 NL Hold'Em cash game performance.. 95% of my play was at the same casino, which is actually a pretty brutal poker room. Many proven professionals with massive bankrolls compared to mine. $1/2, $500 Max, and I would buy-in for roughly $150-300 in that game because my bankroll was so low starting. I was injured in my back with no healthcare and that's how I lost most of my savings over the course of two years while I rehabilitated myself. So, you'd have to think that my hourly rate would be much higher if I were to actually buy-in for the max. Let me hear your thoughts on my performance:

Profit: $12,449
Hourly Rate: $17.29
Total Hours: 719 Hours, 55 Minutes
Cashed: 121/205 (59%)

I wanted to upload the pictures from my Poker Income app but I don't know how to do that on here. My chart is essentially a steady ramp from $0 all the way up to $12,449

you’re probably world class tbh

bout 25BB/100, crusher status, well done. Try to move up to 2/5 now and hit $40/hr, make a living. It'll be a little different, more preflop raisers and postflop aggression but you got this.

Sarcasm? I can take a joke.

Thank you! I can't play live poker at the moment. I live in Canada, right next to the US border. No casinos are open yet and the border is closed. I have 4 casinos within 15 minutes from me too, so it's been rough not being able to go.

Sample size isn't really big enough to make definitive conclusions but this is better than 95% of people or more. Honestly most 1|2 pools are so soft you can sustain even higher win-rates, but it's better to move up than to specialize at beating up extremely weak players.

BTW, 1|2 pros are almost non-existent, especially if there are bigger games in your area. Anyone good enough to make a living at 1|2 should move up within a year. There might be some semi-pros, but I suspect as you get better these players will start to look like fish.

I mean if your playing 50 dollar overs then you def could beat the game for 30/hr but then it's not really 5-10 LHE is it?

For those not familiar, overs increase the stakes of the game only for those who agree to play the increased stakes. So if you are playing 5-10 and are like let's play 50 overs... then the hands you play against other players who agree to overs are 25-50 while hands against people not playing overs is only 5-10...Multi-way you can keep track on the side and settle after the hand.

How many online MTT’s do you think are needed before you can draw conclusions for the result? I know people generally use 1,000 for LLNLHE. Not sure on online MTT’s. Plus I play a variety of stakes, formats and games.

Thanks n

A couple hundred (of the same type) will probably give you a reasonable estimate of if you're a winner or a loser. But to define a win rate and long term expectation you probably need thousands.

It would depend heavily on the payout structure. For a DoN your ROI could converge fairly quickly, maybe only a few hundred to have a good idea. For a winner takes all from a field of 1000 you'd probably need millions, not doing the math though. I realize neither of these formats run for MTTs, but they are extremes to show a point.

I tracked between 250-300 MTT’s online within the last year and the results were all over the place for every sample of 50-100. Overall I think it’s very difficult to tell how big your edge is other than by noting how often you make opponents making mistakes.
My rule is that if I’m better than breakeven over a stretch of 50 or 100, then I get to keep playing them. Your money comes almost entirely from final tables, and in fields of 500-1000 it is stupid hard to get there.

Ok thanks. I started playing online when COVID shut my local rooms down. I’ve always enjoyed MTT’s and online they’re convenient to play. I do OK at them but wasn’t sure if 500-600 data point were sufficient statistically. Thanks everyone.

Looking over about 1500 hours of playtime my avg session is 4 hours. If you remove all my monster losing sessions it's more like 3 hours. I have a tendency to hit n run i guess, but the reality is I often find myself playing 200-300BB deep within an hour or two. After that it's all downhill from there, so I guess opponents are making adjustments to me. I play a pretty loose game derived from my 6max online training, so my guess is I score a few good value spots on players before they learn how I play.

Personally I'm not even comfortable playing deep. Online I basically leave whenever I double up since losing a 600BB pot to a rivered gutshot just ruins my whole day. I dont like giving players the incentive to chase with such a wide range that I cant even put them on a hand. Plus players tend to play back at me because they're irritated with my aggression tendency so they're just looking to put a bad beat on me for a giant pot. Sounds great right? But since I dont really know how to play big stacks I'll just get in over my head with overpairs and sets that get outdrawn.

Common sense says I should obviously learn to play deep, but coming in at $40/hr playing 2/5 tells me **** all that noise, I'm winning well above the normal clip and should just stick to what I do best -- Full stack play then go south after I double up.

Am I stunting my growth here or is winning roughly 20bb/100 good 'nuff not to worry about it?