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Old 03-08-2020, 10:29 PM   #25026
BlindingLaser
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tanqueray View Post
If you're a winning player, and I don't mean a silly mental tally, you wouldn't ask how much BR is needed.

And if you are asking how much is needed, 3000bb BR would certainly have a very high ROR.

In other words, skill plays a huge role. 90% of LLSNL players will go bust 100% of the times with $3,000, just matter of when.
3000bb for a long-term winner should have a very *low* ROR.

Yes, most LLSNL players are losing due to the rake effects, yes, the average person asking this question in this day and age is in the losing segment and not the winning, but the answer to the question as posed is that $3K for someone winning $30/hour at 1/3 should have around a 5% ROR.

@Jarebear -- is this bankroll replenishable (by a job, trust fund, or other means)? If yes, then $3K is fine, regardless of whether you're firing $100 bullets or $300. If no, I'd probably say to either only gamble money you're comfortable losing, or wait until you're in better financial shape to try this.
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:27 AM   #25027
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by BlindingLaser View Post
3000bb for a long-term winner should have a very *low* ROR.

Yes, most LLSNL players are losing due to the rake effects, yes, the average person asking this question in this day and age is in the losing segment and not the winning, but the answer to the question as posed is that $3K for someone winning $30/hour at 1/3 should have around a 5% ROR.

@Jarebear -- is this bankroll replenishable (by a job, trust fund, or other means)? If yes, then $3K is fine, regardless of whether you're firing $100 bullets or $300. If no, I'd probably say to either only gamble money you're comfortable losing, or wait until you're in better financial shape to try this.
Yes it’s replenishable I have a job. I had never really had the means to play before but studied quite a bit. Also when I was younger I was never able to leave a table with profit. I would end up donking it off. Or would run bad when I didn’t have the funds to keep playing.

Now I have money and have been winning when I go play so I thought maybe now would be a time to look into it more seriously.
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:55 AM   #25028
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have a real job (so no need to take out of a BR) and I'm historically a winning player online up to 200NL. I'm considering doing something akin to the old BR challenges where you go from say $50 - $10k. What would you do for a live equivalent of this? What would be the end value? What stipulations would you set to make it interesting?
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:20 AM   #25029
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Good Money View Post
I have a real job (so no need to take out of a BR) and I'm historically a winning player online up to 200NL. I'm considering doing something akin to the old BR challenges where you go from say $50 - $10k. What would you do for a live equivalent of this? What would be the end value? What stipulations would you set to make it interesting?


2k to 20k, starting at 1/2?

Personally I’d rather have my balls smashed with a mallet than play 1/2 if I was rolled for higher but you do you.

Maybe you could do 5k to 30k if you can start at 2/5?
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:02 PM   #25030
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Good Money View Post
I have a real job (so no need to take out of a BR) and I'm historically a winning player online up to 200NL. I'm considering doing something akin to the old BR challenges where you go from say $50 - $10k. What would you do for a live equivalent of this? What would be the end value? What stipulations would you set to make it interesting?
What makes those bankroll challenges viable online is the deep range of stakes, from $2NL to $200NL or even higher. A hundredfold increase in the challenger's bankroll is feasible because of the hundredfold range in available stakes.

Live, except in a few specific markets it is rare to find a game bigger than $5-$10, and often $2-$5 is the biggest game in the room. There isn't much upside.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:22 PM   #25031
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I’m up $9200 in the last 148 hours of 1/2. Is this win-rate sustainable?

My favorite hand from this completely standard run which isn’t at all a heater:
BU straddle, MP opens to $15, I 3-bet to $50 with AKo, BU calls, MP calls. Flop T66r. I c-bet 1/3, BU jams for about a min-raise, MP folds what he later claims was 88, I call. Turn T, river 4. I show, BU shows a 4, says “I guess this doesn’t count” and mucks.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:26 PM   #25032
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's March; if the snowbirds haven't left Florida already they will be leaving soon.
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Old 03-09-2020, 04:49 PM   #25033
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
I’m up $9200 in the last 148 hours of 1/2. Is this win-rate sustainable?

My favorite hand from this completely standard run which isn’t at all a heater:
BU straddle, MP opens to $15, I 3-bet to $50 with AKo, BU calls, MP calls. Flop T66r. I c-bet 1/3, BU jams for about a min-raise, MP folds what he later claims was 88, I call. Turn T, river 4. I show, BU shows a 4, says “I guess this doesn’t count” and mucks.
30bb/hr...? Wow, that's running really bad. I think everyone who's ever posted a meaningful sample size has been beating 3/5 and below for well over that. It's not that hard for a pro 1/2 player to clear 250k/year.

Spoiler:
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Old 03-09-2020, 05:01 PM   #25034
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Pretty sure he realizes he's running extremely well over that sample size and that it isn't remotely sustainable.

On the hand, I'm currently down $1 over 105.5 hours in 2020 (lol, for realz). Fairly certain that is sustainable.

GcluelessrungoodnoobG
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Old 03-09-2020, 05:15 PM   #25035
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My results in 2020 have been subject to quantum entanglement with GGs.

Also dead even for 2020 in about 100 hours.

And proud of it.
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Old 03-09-2020, 05:32 PM   #25036
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Just wanted to brag about a sick heater.

I am $30.37/h in 1280.5 hours at the most recent room I've been regging (200 cap 5+2 with high hands) and $27.06/h over 2261.1 hours lifetime.
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Old 03-09-2020, 06:22 PM   #25037
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
Just wanted to brag about a sick heater.

I am $30.37/h in 1280.5 hours at the most recent room I've been regging (200 cap 5+2 with high hands) and $27.06/h over 2261.1 hours lifetime.
No worries man. Just be careful near dry brush.
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Old 03-09-2020, 08:25 PM   #25038
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So I was watching some youtube videos and jonathan little had video not long ago about how to make 100k a year. The choices he put where something like this assuming playing 40 hours a week


10bb at 2/5nl cash

5bb at 5/10nl cash

$500 total buyin live mtt daily with 50% roi

$1000 daily online mtt daily with 30% roi

6 table 1/2nl 6 max with 8bb/100



He explained that the 5th option is clearly the toughest and said the easiest would be option 1 or 2. Then its between online mtt vs live mtt.


Now he is a very smart guy and has his own site etc. But does anyone think he is being way too lenient here? He did say the 6 table 1/2nl cash with 8bb/100 would be the hardest but is that even possible? He mentioned stars/partypoker that won't work.


But when he mentioned cash games, he mentioned how he has students he teach now that have winrates like that in live cash games. He talked about how 10 years ago he use to grind 5/10nl 12 hours a day everyday and had like a 13bb/hr winrate. Said it was like 6.5bb i believe for 10/20nl i believe. But of course that was a long time ago. I mean how many players full time get that type of winrate of 2/5nl at 10bb/hr. I can't imagine more than say 5 total players in a poker room at the max?



He mentioned how live mtt, you want to have 500 total buyins daily but how does one even do this live without traveling? Vegas mtt from what i see online and what i recall its basically daily 120 or 175 during weekdays unless you talk about those series events etc. That seems to be the most insane. But for online mtt players, are there guys that avg 1k in buyins daily and get 30% roi?



Is there anything wrong with some of his logic here? 5 basically doesn't even seem possible unless you are like one of the best players out there. Option 3 seems insane. I mean how many live mtt are out there playing full time and can make 100k/year? I dont think Allen Kessler can do that and all he plays is live mtt. I see lot of winning years and breakeven and losing years from live mtt easily. Then you also need a huge bankroll.


But of course most full time players are cash game players if they play live. Anyone could take a guess how many players play full time and avg 10bb/hr at 2/5nl and at least 5bb/hr at 5/10? From what i see on bravepokerlive, they don't even have much 5/10nl on weekdays. I do agree with his statement that the first 2 options has the least variance. I mean how many guys out there play 2/5nl full time for multiple years and make 100k? Can't be much it seems right?
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Old 03-09-2020, 10:41 PM   #25039
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulyJames200x View Post
snip
The answer is don't make poker a career.

Make it an enjoyable side hobby that you hopefully make a little extra money at.

With the same effort it takes to win at those stakes at that winrate you can make much more learning to code (or probably several other things). In a job you also get benefits and the income is more or less guaranteed.
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Old 03-10-2020, 02:28 AM   #25040
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Good advice to give, when the economy is on the verge of recesssion.
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Old 03-11-2020, 12:59 PM   #25041
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Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer View Post
30bb/hr...? Wow, that's running really bad. I think everyone who's ever posted a meaningful sample size has been beating 3/5 and below for well over that. It's not that hard for a pro 1/2 player to clear 250k/year.

Spoiler:
For 2020 I’m at 41.5 bb/hr across, wait for it, 61.7 hrs. Good news is at $1/2 and full time hours I can clearly extrapolate this to ~$175k / year. Retirement here I come.
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Old 03-11-2020, 01:31 PM   #25042
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi All,

I started playing poker about a year ago and became fully obsessed with the game. I got in a lot of volume online over a 6 month period and was a break even/slightly winning player. Eventually, I got tired of grinding the micro stakes online and decided to cash out the $200 I had and take it to my local casino and play live.

I've won every single session that I've played live over the past month (19 sessions for a total of 70 hours) and turned my original $200 into $4,600.

As you can imagine, I've been thinking of moving up and taking a shot at $2/$5. I've read several books and understand GTO/solid conceptual poker, but never use it playing $1/$2 (because $1/$2 players constantly do dumb ****).

My original thought was to keep grinding until I have 20 buy ins ($6,000) but even then, I'm only adequately bankrolled for $1/$2 and would need to add another $6,000 to that in order to be adequately bankrolled for $2/$5.

So, my question is, has anyone ever taken a shot at $2/$5 without a proper bankroll and was successful? Or would you guys recommend I just keep doing what I'm doing until I'm properly bankrolled to move to $2/$5?

I probably already know the answer so maybe I'm just looking for validation and some encouragement to go for it. I don't know.

Any input would be greatly appreciated!
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Old 03-11-2020, 01:40 PM   #25043
rickroll
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

ryan most people here have taken shots, when i did it for a living there were times when I was had more in chips on the table than I had in total net worth

having said that, i'd stay at 1-2 for a while, but for your mental health and nothing to do with brm

I'm sure you know this, but your current win rate is not anywhere close to sustainable even if you're the best player in the world

knowing that and experiencing that are two different things though

there's going to be times you do everything perfectly and still lose your shirt - those times are likley just around the corner

if you move up after running so pure and then hit by the other side of variance it's going to emotionally wreck you and doubly so if it happens after you move up in stakes

wait until you have a couple losing sessions and then re-evaluate. if your bankroll is still >4k then take a shot or two when you see a soft lineup and are in a good place mentally and see how it goes

something a bit concerning though is your mentioned you had to withdraw 200 online to play live, if you're mixing your liferoll with your bankroll then you are putting yourself in serious jeopardy playing above 1/2 with that amount

goodluck
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Old 03-14-2020, 03:28 PM   #25044
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Reason #169 not go to pro: corona virus
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Old 06-07-2020, 10:24 PM   #25045
IntheNow
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Reason #169 not go to pro: corona virus

Huh?

The ones who actually had the necessary skills to survive long term as a professional poker player are doing just fine, I can assure you of that.

If you do this thing right, it’s the ultimate job security. I remember being a young pro during the last crisis and feeling the same way when many of my peers with degrees were jobless.

The medium-low stakes, live “pros” you’re referring to, were always doomed long term.

It didn’t work for you. That’s almost uniformly a good thing, in the long run.
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Old 06-07-2020, 11:25 PM   #25046
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryannoysu View Post
Hi All,

I started playing poker about a year ago and became fully obsessed with the game. I got in a lot of volume online over a 6 month period and was a break even/slightly winning player. Eventually, I got tired of grinding the micro stakes online and decided to cash out the $200 I had and take it to my local casino and play live.

I've won every single session that I've played live over the past month (19 sessions for a total of 70 hours) and turned my original $200 into $4,600.

As you can imagine, I've been thinking of moving up and taking a shot at $2/$5. I've read several books and understand GTO/solid conceptual poker, but never use it playing $1/$2 (because $1/$2 players constantly do dumb ****).

My original thought was to keep grinding until I have 20 buy ins ($6,000) but even then, I'm only adequately bankrolled for $1/$2 and would need to add another $6,000 to that in order to be adequately bankrolled for $2/$5.

So, my question is, has anyone ever taken a shot at $2/$5 without a proper bankroll and was successful? Or would you guys recommend I just keep doing what I'm doing until I'm properly bankrolled to move to $2/$5?

I probably already know the answer so maybe I'm just looking for validation and some encouragement to go for it. I don't know.

Any input would be greatly appreciated!
i wouldnt ask 2+2 players, most guys think u shouldnt play anything smaller than 2-5 NL what and are horrible with bankroll advice since they all have jobs which means they dont need bankrolls. but ive played poker as my only source of income for 30 yrs now, and im very uncomfortable playing $1-3 NL (only game here in town except for PLO) with under $20k. i still do it though because i have no other choice. ever since i threw away over 75% of my roll when i had over 20k back in october, its been a real struggle to even get back to 10k and im not there yet. most of it was lost in florida on blackjack and hotel costs, etc. none of it was lost at poker and ive always been a winning player from 30k on a bad year to about 50k on a good year. but i have no choice other than to play 1-3 and ive been out of the work force for 30 years. games here are still good. i won $517 yesterday and lost $287 the day before. still winning about 2k per month as broke as i am, and its mostly all going on rent or Uber. food, etc. very little is growing the bankroll back. at least im lucky enough to be in a state where there is 4 open poker rooms within 10 miles from home. and also lucky enough to be in a state most of the games are still 9 handed or at least 8 the only game is $1-3 NL or $1-3 PLO and surprisingly enough, most people buyin $1000. weird since when i was living in florida before i moved out of state, to get away from playing blackjack, (wanted to live in a state only poker was offered) people in florida bought in $50-200 none of these huge buyins in $1-3 were even permitted. and now im the shortstacker with $100. even $100 feels like way too much to buyin with a roll going back and forth only between 6k and 9k. for over 10 yrs my roll stayed above 13k. its hard emotionally to keep winning with this little money but somehow im doing it. so i would recommend u definitely shouldnt play 2-5 with so little if totally unemployed. this also means u like me, dont receive a regular monthly check from the govt.
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Old 06-08-2020, 09:19 AM   #25047
rickroll
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

imagine giving life lessons to people coming up using playing 1-3 and bankroll of 20k and 24k a year in earnings after 30 years as a metric of success

dunning kruger clearly survived covid19
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Old 06-08-2020, 10:57 AM   #25048
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Some good bankroll advice: Don't lose 75% of your bankroll playing black jack.

Don't play black jack with your bankroll.
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Old 06-08-2020, 11:02 AM   #25049
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Pro tip - dont take poker advice from a homeless unemployable gamboolin degen with no vehicle that does not know how to use paragraphs
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Old 06-08-2020, 11:10 AM   #25050
Garick
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Alright, guys. Let's remember the thread rules, please. I agree that TBC is not living the life most poker players are shooting for, but that doesn't mean we need to pile on.

You can just tell folks the context without judging.
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