[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 1001 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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03-07-2020 , 01:13 PM

#25001

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,608

Quote:

Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk

Lol we probably play in the same room. 2/5 has become very nitty and PLO is where it's at. 1/3 is probably better than 2/5 at this point, even after rake effects.

Based on the games you’re playing in your HHs that you’ve posted, I doubt we’re in the same room.

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03-07-2020 , 01:15 PM

#25002

sixsevenoff

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 5,411

Why would anyone ever post winrate and/or bankroll? Aren't you afraid of the IRS?

Quote

03-07-2020 , 01:16 PM

#25003

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,608

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixsevenoff

Why would anyone ever post winrate and/or bankroll? Aren't you afraid of the IRS?

You’re severely overestimating the IRS’s resources.

Quote

03-07-2020 , 01:21 PM

#25004

sixsevenoff

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 5,411

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot

You’re severely overestimating the IRS’s resources.

All I know is my uncle didn't claim eBay and got slapped with a (I believe) $10k fine

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03-07-2020 , 01:27 PM

#25005

parisron

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 19,736

Ebay issues a tax form and the IRS gets that, if the computer sees that you didn't include that then you may get audited.

Quote

03-07-2020 , 01:29 PM

#25006

DumbosTrunk

Verified Coach PLO5

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 7,274

Because we in fact pay taxes on our professional gambling winnings, that's why.

If you only play on occasion recreationally as a hobby, and/or you just plain lose (and could write it off but don't for other reasons), that's a whole different story.

Last edited by Garick; 03-07-2020 at 02:35 PM. Reason: judgement removed

Quote

03-07-2020 , 02:08 PM

#25007

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk

Because we in fact pay taxes on our professional gambling winnings, that's why.

I’d be shocked if anyone got audited by something they post here, and I don’t think it would count as evidence of income in case of an audit. It’s not exactly uncommon for people to lie on the internet.

The IRS has limited resources and there’s just no way they’re combing through forum posts looking for tax cheats especially when you couldn’t link most peoples‘ accounts to a real person very easily.

Last edited by Garick; 03-07-2020 at 02:37 PM. Reason: politics part removed

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03-07-2020 , 02:23 PM

#25008

DumbosTrunk

Verified Coach PLO5

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 7,274

A lot of it is peace of mind too. Sure I can't control how my taxes are spent - I assume most go to public institutions like schools, police departments, the military, etc. I may not like how all of the money is spent. I may not like how much I pay compared to the richest among us. But I live and work here and I want to sleep well at night knowing I did my part to support those institutions I do support.

Last edited by Garick; 03-07-2020 at 02:37 PM. Reason: politics part out

Quote

03-07-2020 , 02:35 PM

#25009

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,509

How people deal with taxes is on them, but we are not going to play the "following the law is a chump move" card ITF or ITT. It is a legal question, not a political-party one. Couple of posts deleted.

Quote

03-08-2020 , 05:46 PM

#25010

Jarebear

stranger

Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 11

i Know the standard is to buy bin for max. My game is 1/3 100-300. I feel I play better if I buy in for 100 and GII often. I know variance will play a big part in this but if I want to become more serious about playing what is minimum roll. 3000? 5000? 10000?

Quote

03-08-2020 , 05:48 PM

#25011

DumbosTrunk

Verified Coach PLO5

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 7,274

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jarebear

$6,789. About.

Quote

03-08-2020 , 05:51 PM

#25012

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,608

1/3, 300 cap, if you’re a winning player, 3k should probably be ok. Probably have a small % chance ROR

Quote

03-08-2020 , 08:16 PM

#25013

Tanqueray

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 1,689

If you're a winning player, and I don't mean a silly mental tally, you wouldn't ask how much BR is needed.

And if you are asking how much is needed, 3000bb BR would certainly have a very high ROR.

In other words, skill plays a huge role. 90% of LLSNL players will go bust 100% of the times with $3,000, just matter of when.

Last edited by Tanqueray; 03-08-2020 at 08:33 PM.

Quote

03-08-2020 , 10:29 PM

#25014

BlindingLaser

adept

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 768

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tanqueray

3000bb for a long-term winner should have a very *low* ROR.

Yes, most LLSNL players are losing due to the rake effects, yes, the average person asking this question in this day and age is in the losing segment and not the winning, but the answer to the question as posed is that $3K for someone winning $30/hour at 1/3 should have around a 5% ROR.

@Jarebear -- is this bankroll replenishable (by a job, trust fund, or other means)? If yes, then $3K is fine, regardless of whether you're firing $100 bullets or $300. If no, I'd probably say to either only gamble money you're comfortable losing, or wait until you're in better financial shape to try this.

Quote

03-09-2020 , 12:27 AM

#25015

Jarebear

stranger

Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 11

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlindingLaser

Yes it’s replenishable I have a job. I had never really had the means to play before but studied quite a bit. Also when I was younger I was never able to leave a table with profit. I would end up donking it off. Or would run bad when I didn’t have the funds to keep playing.

Now I have money and have been winning when I go play so I thought maybe now would be a time to look into it more seriously.

Quote

03-09-2020 , 12:55 AM

#25016

Good Money

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 294

I have a real job (so no need to take out of a BR) and I'm historically a winning player online up to 200NL. I'm considering doing something akin to the old BR challenges where you go from say $50 - $10k. What would you do for a live equivalent of this? What would be the end value? What stipulations would you set to make it interesting?

Quote

03-09-2020 , 01:20 AM

#25017

feel wrath

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 29,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by Good Money

2k to 20k, starting at 1/2?

Personally I’d rather have my balls smashed with a mallet than play 1/2 if I was rolled for higher but you do you.

Maybe you could do 5k to 30k if you can start at 2/5?

Quote

03-09-2020 , 12:02 PM

#25018

AlanBostick

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 11,472

Quote:

Originally Posted by Good Money

What makes those bankroll challenges viable online is the deep range of stakes, from $2NL to $200NL or even higher. A hundredfold increase in the challenger's bankroll is feasible because of the hundredfold range in available stakes.

Live, except in a few specific markets it is rare to find a game bigger than $5-$10, and often $2-$5 is the biggest game in the room. There isn't much upside.

Quote

03-09-2020 , 01:22 PM

#25019

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

I’m up $9200 in the last 148 hours of 1/2. Is this win-rate sustainable?

My favorite hand from this completely standard run which isn’t at all a heater:
BU straddle, MP opens to $15, I 3-bet to $50 with AKo, BU calls, MP calls. Flop T66r. I c-bet 1/3, BU jams for about a min-raise, MP folds what he later claims was 88, I call. Turn T, river 4. I show, BU shows a 4, says “I guess this doesn’t count” and mucks.

Quote

03-09-2020 , 01:26 PM

#25020

AlanBostick

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 11,472

It's March; if the snowbirds haven't left Florida already they will be leaving soon.

Quote

03-09-2020 , 04:49 PM

#25021

QuantumSurfer

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,987

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

I’m up $9200 in the last 148 hours of 1/2. Is this win-rate sustainable?

My favorite hand from this completely standard run which isn’t at all a heater:
BU straddle, MP opens to $15, I 3-bet to $50 with AKo, BU calls, MP calls. Flop T66r. I c-bet 1/3, BU jams for about a min-raise, MP folds what he later claims was 88, I call. Turn T, river 4. I show, BU shows a 4, says “I guess this doesn’t count” and mucks.

30bb/hr...? Wow, that's running really bad. I think everyone who's ever posted a meaningful sample size has been beating 3/5 and below for well over that. It's not that hard for a pro 1/2 player to clear 250k/year.

Spoiler:

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03-09-2020 , 05:01 PM

#25022

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,133

Pretty sure he realizes he's running extremely well over that sample size and that it isn't remotely sustainable.

On the hand, I'm currently down $1 over 105.5 hours in 2020 (lol, for realz). Fairly certain that is sustainable.

GcluelessrungoodnoobG

Quote

03-09-2020 , 05:15 PM

#25023

Nozsr

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,722

My results in 2020 have been subject to quantum entanglement with GGs.

Also dead even for 2020 in about 100 hours.

And proud of it.

Quote

03-09-2020 , 05:32 PM

#25024

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Just wanted to brag about a sick heater.

I am $30.37/h in 1280.5 hours at the most recent room I've been regging (200 cap 5+2 with high hands) and $27.06/h over 2261.1 hours lifetime.

Quote

03-09-2020 , 06:22 PM

#25025

QuantumSurfer

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,987

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

Just wanted to brag about a sick heater.

I am $30.37/h in 1280.5 hours at the most recent room I've been regging (200 cap 5+2 with high hands) and $27.06/h over 2261.1 hours lifetime.

No worries man. Just be careful near dry brush.

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