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Old 09-19-2012, 10:11 PM   #2476
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by OoberSick View Post
fair enough. i wasn't bashing, just commenting.



also, as far as the seemingly high winrates, it's been my experience that they are possible but usually indicative of short sessions and/or small sample size.

a lot of times if i see someone with a 10bb+/hour rate, it will be with an average session of < 4 or 5 hours. when u play short sessions like that, you're almost never losing multiple buy ins, and when you double up you're win rate is huge. lets say you're at 1/2 and in a 4 hour session you double up your 300 and leave. that's 37.5bb/hr, which is huge. now lets say you stayed another 4 hours and won an additional $100, it's already dropped to 25bb/hr. If you stayed that extra time and actually lost $100 back, it's dropped to 12bb/hr.

thus a 10bb/hr winrate with an average session of 4 hours is NOT the same as a 10bb/hr rate with an average session of 8 hours. it means much much less as far as showing the skill of the player. and i don't say that to bash anyone that's posted a winrate like that, you very well may be able to sustain it for longer sessions, but that's just how it is.

as for what's sustainable and what isn't, it's going to change drastically with game structure and quality. from what i've seen in a 2/5 game with a 100bb buy in, i think 10bb/hr is approaching the best in the player pool IF you're average session is over 6 or 7 hours.

I agree with this, but there are two things at work here.

First, there's a play problem. Longer sessions may result in decreased concentration, or opponents adjusting to your play. Both of these are fixable problems with a little effort. You can learn to not tilt off 3 BI a session, but you may not realize that you're getting outplayed until it's too late.

Second, there's a potential change in the table dynamic. If you've got a good environment (Vegas?) and there are juicy games 24/7, then when you chose to play doesn't make any difference. But if on the other hand your local game is very good only on weekend nights, and a rock garden during the day and during the week, you can't just blindly assume that your winrate is constant under both conditions. So a player that plays short sessions during the best times, when the games are juiciest, will have a higher hourly winrate than a player that puts in 8 hrs/day, every day, even when the games are less favorable.


The second issue is the one that really makes it tough (impossible?) for a "pro" $1/2 player to survive in many markets.
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Old 09-19-2012, 10:35 PM   #2477
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
Thanks for popping in, Russ.

My understanding has always been that commuting expenses are not deductible, but driving on the job is a legit expense. For example, when I ran my law firm, we paid mileage if you had to drive from the office to court and back, but not for your daily commute to and from the office.

Isn't that right?
If you're a self-employed professional player who needs to drive to the casino it is deductible because it's like, part of your business.

I played both online and live last year. I think I deducted like 6K miles or something, + tolls and parking (pretty insignificant).
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:06 PM   #2478
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Yes but if you won those buyins that session then all you can really lose (for the session) is one buyin.

I don't think it matters. That's why we play hours not sessions.
when i say "be in for 2+ buy ins" i mean have to rebuy once or twice.


and @ Angrist, I agree completely. the players who put in short sessions tend to do so under those optimal conditions, meaning mainly weekend hours, and show a higher winrate for it. for example, my overall hourly is around 7bb/hr right now, but if I only played Saturdays it would be 20bb/hr lol.
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:16 PM   #2479
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by OoberSick View Post
@ Angrist, I agree completely. the players who put in short sessions tend to do so under those optimal conditions, meaning mainly weekend hours, and show a higher winrate for it. for example, my overall hourly is around 7bb/hr right now, but if I only played Saturdays it would be 20bb/hr lol.
Yea, I can't really fault them for that, since game selection is a legitimate skill that we develop as poker players. If the games aren't worth playing during the week, or in a certain room, we shouldn't bother playing in them. But it's just one of those other caveats that goes along with the raw $/hr number, just like the stakes or the min/max buyins.
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Old 09-20-2012, 04:15 AM   #2480
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by OoberSick View Post
fair enough. i wasn't bashing, just commenting.



also, as far as the seemingly high winrates, it's been my experience that they are possible but usually indicative of short sessions and/or small sample size.

a lot of times if i see someone with a 10bb+/hour rate, it will be with an average session of < 4 or 5 hours. when u play short sessions like that, you're almost never losing multiple buy ins, and when you double up you're win rate is huge. lets say you're at 1/2 and in a 4 hour session you double up your 300 and leave. that's 37.5bb/hr, which is huge. now lets say you stayed another 4 hours and won an additional $100, it's already dropped to 25bb/hr. If you stayed that extra time and actually lost $100 back, it's dropped to 12bb/hr.

thus a 10bb/hr winrate with an average session of 4 hours is NOT the same as a 10bb/hr rate with an average session of 8 hours. it means much much less as far as showing the skill of the player. and i don't say that to bash anyone that's posted a winrate like that, you very well may be able to sustain it for longer sessions, but that's just how it is.

as for what's sustainable and what isn't, it's going to change drastically with game structure and quality. from what i've seen in a 2/5 game with a 100bb buy in, i think 10bb/hr is approaching the best in the player pool IF you're average session is over 6 or 7 hours.
This is definitely not true if you exclude things like 1) people playing longer sessions are more likely to be playing bad 2) players with short sessions have smaller sample sizes and therefore run less close to true hourly and combined with fact that winners post more often than losers, you have more small sample winners posting.

If sample is the same, two good players should have same hourly regardless of session length.

Explain to me how 1 10 hour session would differ from 2 5 hour session AT ALL?

If what you say is true you should just take lots of breaks or constantly change tables/casinos since you'll magically win more money that way.
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Old 09-20-2012, 04:18 AM   #2481
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News flash: losing 6 buyins in 9 hours results in same hourly as losing 2 buyins in 3 hours.

Similarly if the latter happens 3 times (which will be like losing 6 bis in 9 hours) you'd end up losing the same amount. It's the same.
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Old 09-20-2012, 09:52 AM   #2482
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I guess for me his issue is pretty simple.

Your win rate is the sum of all your wins and losses over all the hours you have played.

Short sessions, long sessions, deep stacked, short stacked, hit and run, etx. None of that is really that relevant to my previous statement.

You are what your results say you are. If you want different results then play differently.
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Old 09-20-2012, 01:39 PM   #2483
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Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
This is definitely not true if you exclude things like 1) people playing longer sessions are more likely to be playing bad 2) players with short sessions have smaller sample sizes and therefore run less close to true hourly and combined with fact that winners post more often than losers, you have more small sample winners posting.

If sample is the same, two good players should have same hourly regardless of session length.

Explain to me how 1 10 hour session would differ from 2 5 hour session AT ALL?

If what you say is true you should just take lots of breaks or constantly change tables/casinos since you'll magically win more money that way.
yea...IF you exclude those two largely contributing factors lol. also if you exclude that playing longer sessions means you're playing outside of the optimal hours. someone who plays full time isn't taking 4 or 5 days a week off so he can just play when he's making 20bb/hr. he has to play on the days where he's only making 3bb/hr as well, otherwise he isn't netting enough profit on a weekly basis.

take these two samples for example:

Sample 1 -

Total Hours = 40
Average session = 8 hours
Total sessions = 5
Days Played = Wed-Sun


Sample 2 -

Total Hours = 40
Average Session = 4 hours
Total Sessions = 10
Days Played = Friday/Saturday

They both have the same total hours, but obviously the second example will show a higher winrate. probably even higher overall profit, but it would take him 5x as long to make it.

Obviously this won't hold true for everyone. Some people may play 4 hours a day, everyday. It's just a generalization for samples with short average sessions.
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Old 09-20-2012, 01:42 PM   #2484
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think *perhaps* a case could be made that playing longer sessions has the potential for a higher winrate because we could then be playing a more profitable deepstack version of the game (vs we`re never playing deepstack in hit & runs).
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Old 09-20-2012, 01:57 PM   #2485
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I think *perhaps* a case could be made that playing longer sessions has the potential for a higher winrate because we could then be playing a more profitable deepstack version of the game (vs we`re never playing deepstack in hit & runs).
maybe. that would also assume that our opponents get deep as well, and that the player in question is both experienced and proficient with playing deepstack.
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Old 09-20-2012, 06:00 PM   #2486
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Re: Factoring in Gas Cost in Win Rate/Profit?

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Originally Posted by Russ Fox View Post
Commuting mileage is not deductible. That's commuting to and from your place of employment.

This gets far trickier with driving to and from a casino where you play poker on a self-employed basis as a professional gambler. Let's say John Smith is an online gambler in Irvine, California. He has a home office (whether it's deductible or not is irrelevant) where he plays poker. Once a month (when there's a big tournament series) he drives to Commerce, the Bike, or Hollywood Park to play. His mileage is likely deductible. If the mileage is deductible, the tolls are, too.

Now let's say Mr. Smith lives in Frostbite Falls, Minnesota. The only poker room within 100 miles is at the Badenov Casino. He does not play online poker. Instead, he drives to the casino five days a week to play. In this case, it might be considered commuting mileage.

This is definitely something each professional gambler should discuss with their own tax professional as their facts and circumstances could impact the decision as to whether mileage is deductible.

-- Russ Fox
Ok, this clears it up. The bottom line is that the IRS will look at the particular facts and circumstances of your driving and characterize it as either a non-deductible commute or deductible travel.

My original post on the subject was influenced by my situation. I live 3 miles from the Vegas strip, and drive back and forth to a strip casino 5 days a week. My wife and I refer to the casino as "the office," as in her asking "you going in to the office today?" so it's as clearly a commute as self-employed driving is likely to be, and I generalized from my own situation.
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Old 09-20-2012, 06:03 PM   #2487
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Re: Factoring in Gas Cost in Win Rate/Profit?

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Originally Posted by Russ Fox View Post
For online play, a spreadsheet should be sufficient.

For live play, while the IRS can accept a computerized log; however, they do not have to. For live play, I strongly recommend a contemporaneous written gambling log (in ink) where you note the date, casino name, game you're playing, table number, start time, end time, and result.


-- Russ Fox
This is also very useful information. It's also pretty stupid of the IRS, but I guess that's standard for them.

Thanks again, Russ.
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Old 09-21-2012, 04:15 AM   #2488
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OoberSick View Post
yea...IF you exclude those two largely contributing factors lol. also if you exclude that playing longer sessions means you're playing outside of the optimal hours. someone who plays full time isn't taking 4 or 5 days a week off so he can just play when he's making 20bb/hr. he has to play on the days where he's only making 3bb/hr as well, otherwise he isn't netting enough profit on a weekly basis.

take these two samples for example:

Sample 1 -

Total Hours = 40
Average session = 8 hours
Total sessions = 5
Days Played = Wed-Sun


Sample 2 -

Total Hours = 40
Average Session = 4 hours
Total Sessions = 10
Days Played = Friday/Saturday

They both have the same total hours, but obviously the second example will show a higher winrate. probably even higher overall profit, but it would take him 5x as long to make it.

Obviously this won't hold true for everyone. Some people may play 4 hours a day, everyday. It's just a generalization for samples with short average sessions.

Good points of course.

On the other hand the post I quoted sounded like saying the way to beat black jack is by betting heaters and streaks and hit and running to reduce losses.

?!?!
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:54 AM   #2489
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Originally Posted by OoberSick View Post

thus a 10bb/hr winrate with an average session of 4 hours is NOT the same as a 10bb/hr rate with an average session of 8 hours. it means much much less as far as showing the skill of the player. and i don't say that to bash anyone that's posted a winrate like that, you very well may be able to sustain it for longer sessions, but that's just how it is.

as for what's sustainable and what isn't, it's going to change drastically with game structure and quality. from what i've seen in a 2/5 game with a 100bb buy in, i think 10bb/hr is approaching the best in the player pool IF you're average session is over 6 or 7 hours.
this makes no sense

average = average

i rarely play sessions longer than 5 hours and if anything it hurts my WR because it decrease the chances of me getting supper deep with weaker players(i play in 100bb BI games mostly)
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Old 09-21-2012, 12:01 PM   #2490
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Originally Posted by OoberSick View Post
yea...IF you exclude those two largely contributing factors lol. also if you exclude that playing longer sessions means you're playing outside of the optimal hours. someone who plays full time isn't taking 4 or 5 days a week off so he can just play when he's making 20bb/hr. he has to play on the days where he's only making 3bb/hr as well, otherwise he isn't netting enough profit on a weekly basis.

take these two samples for example:

Sample 1 -

Total Hours = 40
Average session = 8 hours
Total sessions = 5
Days Played = Wed-Sun


Sample 2 -

Total Hours = 40
Average Session = 4 hours
Total Sessions = 10
Days Played = Friday/Saturday

They both have the same total hours, but obviously the second example will show a higher winrate. probably even higher overall profit, but it would take him 5x as long to make it.

Obviously this won't hold true for everyone. Some people may play 4 hours a day, everyday. It's just a generalization for samples with short average sessions.
now you changed variables - of course game selection changes WR
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Old 09-22-2012, 01:55 AM   #2491
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Originally Posted by mike1270 View Post
this makes no sense

average = average

i rarely play sessions longer than 5 hours and if anything it hurts my WR because it decrease the chances of me getting supper deep with weaker players(i play in 100bb BI games mostly)
How can playing long decrease the chance of you and a fish getting deep?

It surely increases it.... No?

I'm lost reading this post.

Playing >5hrs is good (provided your not on tilt/super tired etc) because it allows you to use your better developed reads and stacks usually get deeper as the game continue.
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Old 09-22-2012, 08:33 AM   #2492
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Long sessions are preferable if possible. Think about commute and wait times.

Obv there are reasons why you'd quit, but those are non preferred conditions.
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Old 09-22-2012, 12:35 PM   #2493
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Originally Posted by RobFarha View Post
How can playing long decrease the chance of you and a fish getting deep?

It surely increases it.... No?

I'm lost reading this post.

Playing >5hrs is good (provided your not on tilt/super tired etc) because it allows you to use your better developed reads and stacks usually get deeper as the game continue.
i agree 100% - i think you misread my post
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Old 09-22-2012, 04:48 PM   #2494
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OoberSick View Post
fair enough. i wasn't bashing, just commenting.



also, as far as the seemingly high winrates, it's been my experience that they are possible but usually indicative of short sessions and/or small sample size.

a lot of times if i see someone with a 10bb+/hour rate, it will be with an average session of < 4 or 5 hours. when u play short sessions like that, you're almost never losing multiple buy ins, and when you double up you're win rate is huge. lets say you're at 1/2 and in a 4 hour session you double up your 300 and leave. that's 37.5bb/hr, which is huge. now lets say you stayed another 4 hours and won an additional $100, it's already dropped to 25bb/hr. If you stayed that extra time and actually lost $100 back, it's dropped to 12bb/hr.

thus a 10bb/hr winrate with an average session of 4 hours is NOT the same as a 10bb/hr rate with an average session of 8 hours. it means much much less as far as showing the skill of the player. and i don't say that to bash anyone that's posted a winrate like that, you very well may be able to sustain it for longer sessions, but that's just how it is.

as for what's sustainable and what isn't, it's going to change drastically with game structure and quality. from what i've seen in a 2/5 game with a 100bb buy in, i think 10bb/hr is approaching the best in the player pool IF you're average session is over 6 or 7 hours.
You make a compelling case for playing short sessions.
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Old 09-22-2012, 04:52 PM   #2495
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The same argument can be used for leisure players and pro players. Leisure players can play whenever they feel best and only the most profitable game, pros have to play in order to make ends meet.

Naturally leisure players will have higher WR than pros.
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Old 09-22-2012, 07:42 PM   #2496
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lol

Btw my stats are out of date. I might need to repost for a more legit brag.
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Old 09-23-2012, 04:37 PM   #2497
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Anyone know of a good poker App for the Android phone aside from Poker Journal? I can't seem to get that app and it's not available for the Android or is that just me?
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Old 09-23-2012, 08:20 PM   #2498
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Anyone know of a good poker App for the Android phone aside from Poker Journal? I can't seem to get that app and it's not available for the Android or is that just me?
Session logger
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Old 09-23-2012, 11:29 PM   #2499
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I think there should be a criteria for posting your WR.

For example:

BI format: 40bb - 100bb, etc.
Rake/drop: $5 flat or $4/$2, etc.
Average number of tables: weekday or weekend.
Sample size: 800 hour or what not.

Then it would be much easier to compare apple to apple.


This is just 2/5 this year since this seems to be the most common stake people discuss winrates.

This is playing at Foxwoods with a 500cap, also probably 80% of my hours are during the week when the game is mostly older regulars. There is about 140 hours in there that account for my Vegas trip which I won 50$/hr when I was out there.

Rake structure is a 4+1, usually 2-4 tables running during the week. 4-6 running on weekends.

If I could play the weekend hours I assume my winrate would be north of 10bb/hr. Or if they made the buy-in 1k (they never will).
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Old 09-24-2012, 03:32 AM   #2500
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What rake do you have at 1/2? We have £10 cap 5% 1bbj. £5 cap for 2/5.
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