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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

05-11-2021 , 02:55 PM
It’s just been a tough week of poker you are right saying 1600 is just about 5bi it’s just terrible getting it all in every time on turn with the nuts being 80-20 and just losing every time. I do have a small sample size it’s just really my first time losing 5 consecutive full bi just really started playing live poker beginning of this year
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-11-2021 , 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salsca11
It’s just been a tough week of poker you are right saying 1600 is just about 5bi it’s just terrible getting it all in every time on turn with the nuts being 80-20 and just losing every time. I do have a small sample size it’s just really my first time losing 5 consecutive full bi just really started playing live poker beginning of this year
If you've just started playing, then it really is more difficult to evaluate whether this is just one of those unfortunate downswings that you'll encounter from time to time or whether this is just going to be the long term par for the course due to the ~losing method you are using in your game.

Gtimewilltell,goodluck!G
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-11-2021 , 03:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueSpade84
1. -2500bb's
Is that bbs? So $5K? Lol, that sounds like a fun mental time, guessing you questioned everything including your own existence?

Ggogogo!imoG
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-11-2021 , 04:00 PM
Perhaps I misspoke. Thanks for jumping all over it in proper internet etiquette.

What I meant was that they made the games tougher. Not unbeatable. There was a time when I could easily find a table with at least 7 fish with no clue and maybe 2-3 who had some idea even if it was just to lose more slowly. By the time COVID hit those numbers were flipped. Note, that I attribute most of that to the average poker “pro” being a dick and driving the fish away with their personalities more than their play.

The online games are night and day easier compared to a couple years ago. Maybe it’ll be similar for live games is all I’m saying.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-11-2021 , 04:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22
Perhaps I misspoke. Thanks for jumping all over it in proper internet etiquette.

What I meant was that they made the games tougher. Not unbeatable. There was a time when I could easily find a table with at least 7 fish with no clue and maybe 2-3 who had some idea even if it was just to lose more slowly. By the time COVID hit those numbers were flipped. Note, that I attribute most of that to the average poker “pro” being a dick and driving the fish away with their personalities more than their play.

The online games are night and day easier compared to a couple years ago. Maybe it’ll be similar for live games is all I’m saying.
No mang, I got it. Your poast was ever so slightly nuanced and made perfect sense to me. But as evidenced some cant get from a to b with out an extensive road map
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-11-2021 , 10:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
If you've just started playing, then it really is more difficult to evaluate whether this is just one of those unfortunate downswings that you'll encounter from time to time or whether this is just going to be the long term par for the course due to the ~losing method you are using in your game.

Gtimewilltell,goodluck!G
Prior to this had 110 hours sample size was break even for that time.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-11-2021 , 11:24 PM
Dude, 110 hours is half a day's work online. It's 3,000 hands. It's nothing.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-11-2021 , 11:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22
Perhaps I misspoke. Thanks for jumping all over it in proper internet etiquette.

What I meant was that they made the games tougher. Not unbeatable. There was a time when I could easily find a table with at least 7 fish with no clue and maybe 2-3 who had some idea even if it was just to lose more slowly. By the time COVID hit those numbers were flipped. Note, that I attribute most of that to the average poker “pro” being a dick and driving the fish away with their personalities more than their play.

The online games are night and day easier compared to a couple years ago. Maybe it’ll be similar for live games is all I’m saying.
Games are better live, because a lot of the foreign traveling pros are back in their country while the COVID situation drew to the casino the people whose risk probability assessment skills were even worse than the pre-pandemic population. Games were better online because fish were bored, had nothing to do and this was as good a chance as any to donk off a couple of buyins.

Games in general were better because the government threw a lot of money and a lot of recreational spending had nowhere else to go.

There will be a transition period in which those factors help some. But in the end, my bet would be that the games would return to their constantly growing tougher trend.

Having said that, I 've been working on my game and I see areas in which I made mistakes. I also see mistakes other players make that I haven't been able to do before. This is an indication of how much money are still up for grabs. All the same, it's requiring more and more effort to improve and you would think that a lot of other people worked on their games during the COVID break. I would definitely expect a few people to be on a beast mode when things go back to normal.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-11-2021 , 11:35 PM
It's like an hour of online play, or do players not 40 table anymore?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-12-2021 , 01:44 AM
Not as easy, not as many tables available + sites tend to place limits on # of tables you play.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-12-2021 , 05:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon
In my area, I think they moved to the Indian casino that spreads a 2/5.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon
Graton, up toward Santa Rosa. Never been there.
Dang if true. That place was it's own mint when it opened. It had become very dry by 2019 and sometimes unbeatable due to the snatch rake.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-12-2021 , 11:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salsca11
Prior to this had 110 hours sample size was break even for that time.
Yeah, so still really early going for you and you really have no idea how you are faring against your competition with your method.

You may want to post some hands that you're not 100% sure of and see what others think.

Ggoodluck!G
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-12-2021 , 12:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face
No mang, I got it. Your poast was ever so slightly nuanced and made perfect sense to me. But as evidenced some cant get from a to b with out an extensive road map
Maybe now that you're not working you could study the dictionary to try to avoid this situation from coming up again
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-12-2021 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeadMoneyWalking
Dang if true. That place was it's own mint when it opened. It had become very dry by 2019 and sometimes unbeatable due to the snatch rake.
It was just a theory. After seeing some of the other theories related to stimulus checks and pros being weeded out, I don't like my theory much anymore.

It seems the games are a lot easier everywhere right now. Can't last much longer, maybe a couple more months.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-12-2021 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon
It was just a theory. After seeing some of the other theories related to stimulus checks and pros being weeded out, I don't like my theory much anymore.

It seems the games are a lot easier everywhere right now. Can't last much longer, maybe a couple more months.
I still don't understand this. Yeah, the games are probably a little softer here than pre-covid but I think that's mainly because online poker got legalized. It's not like the games ever weren't super soft, and I don't think they'll ever not be soft, even 50 years from now.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-12-2021 , 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
I still don't understand this. Yeah, the games are probably a little softer here than pre-covid but I think that's mainly because online poker got legalized. It's not like the games ever weren't super soft, and I don't think they'll ever not be soft, even 50 years from now.
Well, I thought I was just on an upswing. Ya know, just hitting random luck in cards and people that stack off with one pair. But that's never lasted more than a week and change. It's been happening for about 3 months now. So, I started looking for other explanations.

Also, I'm finding lots of the "bet small (for the pot) with weak hands" players, that will fold to a $100 pot size raise on the turn.

I will note that yesterday, a 1/3, 2/5 pro I recall was in the game. So, I think the word is spreading.

TLDR; The 1/3's are defiantly softer than normal right now.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-12-2021 , 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon
Well, I thought I was just on an upswing. Ya know, just hitting random luck in cards and people that stack off with one pair. But that's never lasted more than a week and change. It's been happening for about 3 months now. So, I started looking for other explanations.

Also, I'm finding lots of the "bet small (for the pot) with weak hands" players, that will fold to a $100 pot size raise on the turn.

I will note that yesterday, a 1/3, 2/5 pro I recall was in the game. So, I think the word is spreading.

TLDR; The 1/3's are defiantly softer than normal right now.
You may just be starting to become more observant. None of this sounds out of the ordinary for LLSNL.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-12-2021 , 04:58 PM
Keep it up jay interested in your journey
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-12-2021 , 05:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
You may just be starting to become more observant. None of this sounds out of the ordinary for LLSNL.
Interesting. It feels the same, but maybe you're right.

I know one thing that's different. Got a set of kings beat today by 53s and when I saw it, I said: Wow, nice hand ... and meant it, then moved on. Not even worth posting the hand.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-12-2021 , 06:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueSpade84
I'm currently on my longest break-even/downswing stretch. Out of 1500hrs of live play, I've been slightly losing over the last 100 hrs. Tbh, I'm starting to find it taking on my mental game getting sucked out on over and over. Probably running about 15% on coin flips over the last 20 or so. I know I'm playing solid poker, and keep grinding my stack up to lose it again in high variance spots where I have a slight to medium edge - which is quite frustrating for someone as accustomed to winning as I've become

Here are my biggest downswings / breakeven stretches.

1. -2500bb's from Aug '19 - Oct '19 over 85hrs all at deepstack $1/2 NL ($500 max)

2. Breakeven March '18 - Aug '18 over 110hrs at $1/3 NL ($300 max)

3. Breakeven April '21 - Present over 100hrs at $2/5 NL ($1000 max)

I have lost 600bb or more at a stretch in both of those breakeven stretches. Heck, I lost more than 600bb last night alone, but that was from a high point to low. Finished down 200bb overall in the session. That 'noise' gets lost in my spreadsheet since I only record BI and cash out amounts.

My swings are likely to be very muted despite the high variance play that I use because my win rates continue to be very high.

Total Results:

$1/2 NL : $29.45/hr over 537 hrs

$1/3 NL : $33.79/hr over 296 hrs

$2/5 NL : $112.39/hr over 593 hrs

Total sample is approaching 1500hrs so I feel fairly confident in relying on these stats as proof of my longterm winning play, but obviously the hourly will continue to swing wildly based on variance and the difficulty of the games.

GG: I'm sure that our play can affect the downswing. Obviously when we play bad we are more likely to lose, and high variance spots certainly will have higher swings. But avoiding the downswing seems impossible. No matter how nitty we are pre sometimes it just feels like the deck is stacked against us and we are always up against a set on every flop. Hope you get back on the tables soon. GL.
those are excellent results. nice one!
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-13-2021 , 06:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Is that bbs? So $5K? Lol, that sounds like a fun mental time, guessing you questioned everything including your own existence?

Ggogogo!imoG
Yes. A $5k down swing at 1-2. I quit poker for 6 months as a result. Which was needed to maintain my sanity.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-13-2021 , 07:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueSpade84
Yes. A $5k down swing at 1-2. I quit poker for 6 months as a result. Which was needed to maintain my sanity.
At GG’s age, sanity is like, just being able to indicate to your caregiver that you need to get the the bathroom.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-14-2021 , 12:02 PM
My 5K hours well post (which I actually wrote up pre-pandemic not realizing it would take me 1+ years and counting to get in my last ~40 hours) is mostly about how much consideration should our mental health factor into our poker method. Having a huge winrate is obviously awesome, but if it comes at a big cost (such as having to quit for huge periods of time) then I wonder if we should be aiming for a happier medium.

Gmaybemycaregivertookmyjacket?hasanyoneseenmyjacke t?G
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-14-2021 , 07:32 PM
This might be impossible to answer, but I’ve been playing a home game with a bunch of intelligent people (either in masters or phd programs or have a top job as a programmer in tech) who have all studied the game and understand the concepts of ranges, GTO, etc. I’ve been doing pretty well at this game and am thinking I might want to try playing more often at the casino. Do you think this game is comparable to a live 1/2 or 1/3 game? Stakes are similar.

Second, I plan to use a 20 buyin bankroll. Is this too aggressive?

Third, when I say buyin, I mean 100BB, not the max allowed buyin, which at some casinos could be $500 for a 1/3 game.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-14-2021 , 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KHP
This might be impossible to answer, but I’ve been playing a home game with a bunch of intelligent people (either in masters or phd programs or have a top job as a programmer in tech) who have all studied the game and understand the concepts of ranges, GTO, etc. I’ve been doing pretty well at this game and am thinking I might want to try playing more often at the casino. Do you think this game is comparable to a live 1/2 or 1/3 game? Stakes are similar.

Second, I plan to use a 20 buyin bankroll. Is this too aggressive?

Third, when I say buyin, I mean 100BB, not the max allowed buyin, which at some casinos could be $500 for a 1/3 game.
I've found the 1/2 to be populated by nits and hit and run artists. The 1/3 would be a much better choice.
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