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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

12-23-2019 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordRiverRat
Did you just say this was 1/3? Solid hourly over a pretty good sample if it is.
Yeah a majority is 1/3 with a good structure (think Wynn) and about a third is other Vegas 1/2 or 1/3.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-23-2019 , 05:16 PM
Session win % is a silly metric on a macro level, because it has almost no bearing on the micro level.

It also creates mind-eff situations such as locking up wins or chasing losses, both can have adverse effect on WR.

Lastly for any somewhat meaningful size data that isn't too large, if you remove top 10% of winning sessions vs random 10% winning sessions, you will likely see a rather big difference in WR.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-23-2019 , 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter
Yeah a majority is 1/3 with a good structure (think Wynn) and about a third is other Vegas 1/2 or 1/3.
And I thought I was a bankroll nit. Well played though.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-23-2019 , 07:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
played my last session of poker for the year last night so time for my annual results post.

Live in home poker room

2/3 (500) 120 hours +$7309 $60.90ph
2/5/10 (1000) 291 hours +$17,701 $60.75ph

Live while travelling

1/2 Lon (400) 19 hours +100 GBP GBP 5.26ph
2/5 Melb (500) 25 hours - $260 $-10.40 ph

Live cash total

+$24,930 in 456 hours

Online hold em

3/6 (600) 7470 hands +$6164

PLO

Live 1/3 (300) 4 hours +$300
Online 1/2 (400) 1850 hands -$700


Stupid ****ing live MTTs (inc swaps)

1/17 cashes - $10,470


Total Profit $20,224

Last poker session of the year has been had...here is my annual results post


1/2 (400) 14 hours +1333 $95.2 ph
(I play 1/2 when on business in London)

2/3 (500) 46 hours +521 = $11.32 ph
(home poker room)

2/5 (500/700/1000) 58 hours +2314 = $39.9ph
(Melbourne & Vegas)

2/5/10 (1000) 233 hours +5325 = $22.8ph
(main game home poker room)

Total cash +9494 at $29ph

Tournaments

Satellites - 2 tickets from 8 entries +$2880

MTTs 0 cashes from 6 entries -$9700


Comments.

my online app game has dried up, which is a huge shame...I'm looking for another one, but I just don't trust the apps unless I know the people organising

my main game has gotten tougher. very reggy and I'm often sitting with 8 players I recognise and have played with before...all of whom would beat 2/3 and half of them playing for a living. I actually enjoy the battle with them and it's interesting poker playing with guys I have 500 hours + with and adapting to their play and their perspective of my play etc. I sometimes don't sit it if it's too bad and I definitely think (despite this year's results), that I could win more at 2/3...particularly since my room just introduced a 2/3/6 (600) game. But I also play for enjoyment and as a semi social occasion at the end of a busy and often stressful week and I'm friendly with many of the pros/regs at my main game...plus I enjoy the battle more than the more straightforward 2/3

I don't think I've run very well this year. I was in a cash downswing for the first half and I honestly don't think I've had any kind of heater at all the entire year....Nothing hugely noteworthy, but it seems the entire year I've had my biggest hands in single raised pots in early position or never got action etc etc. I guess what I'm saying is that I've rarely coolered people and hardly had any gifts.

I haven't worked as hard on my poker this year and I haven't played as many hours or hands...the lack of online and fewer hours means I'm playing more straightforward more of the time and probably taking fewer risks.

MTTs continue to be a blight on my results. I made day 2 of Millionaire Maker with a good stack but lost all ins with AK twice in the first half hour and that was that. I'm confident that the results will come eventually, but the variance combined with the tiny volume I play means that it may be years...I have no expectations, just hopes and dreams - two of the regs from my main game won 6 figures this year and I'll continue to play them, so long as my cash winnings are funding them
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-23-2019 , 09:13 PM
Going to pollute this thread of great volume and wins with some small sample rec losses

1/2&1/3: 104 hours -$1812
2/5: 16 hours -$835

Finally totaled my session notes and oh wow I definitely thought I had more hours.

Came back to poker after playing maybe 3 times since Black Friday. Before Black Friday I played online limit at a good winrate, but had little to no NL skills. Started around March playing in a big 1/2 home game. Then going to local cardroom to play 1/3. Studying my balls off and participating in strat threads hoping people disagree with what I suggest and argue out why so I learn stuff from them.

About $900 of my losses at 1/2&1/3 were total noobing and LAG tilt the first few sessions. Then I had a lot of good sessions in the cardroom. But I went to Vegas with some friends and played drunk and spewy and dropped $1300 (actually went -2500 one day then +1200 the next when we cut the nonsense). So I'm thinking if I put in more volume and keep studying that 2020 will work out well.

2/5 is lol sample size. Had two +130ish bb sessions then a rough -400bb session (flop top set v backdoor flush and flop two pair vs set). 66% cash rate lol.

Goal is to get 400 hrs in for 2020. Obviously want those to be profitable but I'm not going to set winrate goals until I have some decent baseline. Going to focus on playing well and studying.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-23-2019 , 10:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by reaper6788
Going to pollute this thread of great volume and wins with some small sample rec losses

1/2&1/3: 104 hours -$1812
2/5: 16 hours -$835

Finally totaled my session notes and oh wow I definitely thought I had more hours.

Came back to poker after playing maybe 3 times since Black Friday. Before Black Friday I played online limit at a good winrate, but had little to no NL skills. Started around March playing in a big 1/2 home game. Then going to local cardroom to play 1/3. Studying my balls off and participating in strat threads hoping people disagree with what I suggest and argue out why so I learn stuff from them.

About $900 of my losses at 1/2&1/3 were total noobing and LAG tilt the first few sessions. Then I had a lot of good sessions in the cardroom. But I went to Vegas with some friends and played drunk and spewy and dropped $1300 (actually went -2500 one day then +1200 the next when we cut the nonsense). So I'm thinking if I put in more volume and keep studying that 2020 will work out well.

2/5 is lol sample size. Had two +130ish bb sessions then a rough -400bb session (flop top set v backdoor flush and flop two pair vs set). 66% cash rate lol.

Goal is to get 400 hrs in for 2020. Obviously want those to be profitable but I'm not going to set winrate goals until I have some decent baseline. Going to focus on playing well and studying.
good luck on your poker journey...it's a fun hobby

I don't want to be a dick, but you have to be really careful with the bolded....specifically the tendency to think 'I'm actually a winning player when I play properly...it's only when I run bad/play while drunk or messing around that I lose'.

Not that this is specifically wrong or inaccurate for you or any of us and I'm not saying you think of it like this. Just that it's a dangerous form of self deception to lapse into and people who do this will often start not including the drunk/fun sessions in their win rates and all of a sudden will feel they're a winning player when they're not. It's all one long session and you're responsible for your play every time you sit at the table.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-23-2019 , 10:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
Last poker session of the year has been had...here is my annual results post


1/2 (400) 14 hours +1333 $95.2 ph
(I play 1/2 when on business in London)

2/3 (500) 46 hours +521 = $11.32 ph
(home poker room)

2/5 (500/700/1000) 58 hours +2314 = $39.9ph
(Melbourne & Vegas)

2/5/10 (1000) 233 hours +5325 = $22.8ph
(main game home poker room)

Total cash +9494 at $29ph

Tournaments

Satellites - 2 tickets from 8 entries +$2880

MTTs 0 cashes from 6 entries -$9700


Comments.

my online app game has dried up, which is a huge shame...I'm looking for another one, but I just don't trust the apps unless I know the people organising

my main game has gotten tougher. very reggy and I'm often sitting with 8 players I recognise and have played with before...all of whom would beat 2/3 and half of them playing for a living. I actually enjoy the battle with them and it's interesting poker playing with guys I have 500 hours + with and adapting to their play and their perspective of my play etc. I sometimes don't sit it if it's too bad and I definitely think (despite this year's results), that I could win more at 2/3...particularly since my room just introduced a 2/3/6 (600) game. But I also play for enjoyment and as a semi social occasion at the end of a busy and often stressful week and I'm friendly with many of the pros/regs at my main game...plus I enjoy the battle more than the more straightforward 2/3

I don't think I've run very well this year. I was in a cash downswing for the first half and I honestly don't think I've had any kind of heater at all the entire year....Nothing hugely noteworthy, but it seems the entire year I've had my biggest hands in single raised pots in early position or never got action etc etc. I guess what I'm saying is that I've rarely coolered people and hardly had any gifts.

I haven't worked as hard on my poker this year and I haven't played as many hours or hands...the lack of online and fewer hours means I'm playing more straightforward more of the time and probably taking fewer risks.

MTTs continue to be a blight on my results. I made day 2 of Millionaire Maker with a good stack but lost all ins with AK twice in the first half hour and that was that. I'm confident that the results will come eventually, but the variance combined with the tiny volume I play means that it may be years...I have no expectations, just hopes and dreams - two of the regs from my main game won 6 figures this year and I'll continue to play them, so long as my cash winnings are funding them
You and me both. A big live tourney win is the dragon I'm forever chasing.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-23-2019 , 10:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
good luck on your poker journey...it's a fun hobby



I don't want to be a dick, but you have to be really careful with the bolded....specifically the tendency to think 'I'm actually a winning player when I play properly...it's only when I run bad/play while drunk or messing around that I lose'.



Not that this is specifically wrong or inaccurate for you or any of us and I'm not saying you think of it like this. Just that it's a dangerous form of self deception to lapse into and people who do this will often start not including the drunk/fun sessions in their win rates and all of a sudden will feel they're a winning player when they're not. It's all one long session and you're responsible for your play every time you sit at the table.
You're not being a dick. This is very true, which I why I still include those sessions in my results

This is just me reasoning out that I think getting to net winner is attainable.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-24-2019 , 12:47 AM
Learn to win while drunk. Then you'll be happy to include those sessions in your hourly calculation. I don't even think it's that -EV to drink. If you adjust properly could even be +EV if you're stacking someone every time you have a big hand cause no one wants to fold to the "drunk idiot". For me personally, before the 10th drink I can't really recall alcohol making me do anything stupid/spewy. After the 10th drink...well I probably wouldn't be able to recall it anyways

Sent from my MAR-LX3A using Tapatalk
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-24-2019 , 11:42 AM
I almost always have a drink in front of me when I play; it’s more than just enhancing my image to get paid, it’s about helping to facilitate a good game and being someone people don’t mind playing with or losing to. Pretty sure the optics of losing to someone who is chatting and drinking is better than losing to someone with iPad/headphones and green tea.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-25-2019 , 04:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter
I almost always have a drink in front of me when I play; it’s more than just enhancing my image to get paid, it’s about helping to facilitate a good game and being someone people don’t mind playing with or losing to. Pretty sure the optics of losing to someone who is chatting and drinking is better than losing to someone with iPad/headphones and green tea.
100 percent.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-25-2019 , 04:48 PM
Would you still drink if you had to pay $7 for a beer? I definitely found it way more common for people to suggest/buy a round of drinks in Vegas than anywhere in the UK. I completely agree that it's way better optics to drink beer than green tea/coffee etc though
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-25-2019 , 06:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick
Suppose a player has a win rate of 10 bb/hour and an hourly standard deviation of 80 bb.

Suppose further that this player follows a rigid schedule and plays 6-hour sessions when they play, without regard to wins, losses, locking up wins, or stop-losses.

Then the probability distribution of this player's sessions will be close to Gaussian (central limit theorem, lots of hands played) with a mean of 60 bb and a standard deviation of 296 bb.

From this we can compute (or look up) the likelihood of a winning session, through the use of the cumulative distribution function.

It turns out that our hypothetical player is going to be winning 58% of the sessions they play and losing 42%, over the long run.

This is going to vary with session length, and it gets trickier when you play sessions of varying lengths. And you can fudge the data by doing things like locking up wins or playing long sessions when you are behind until you get back to even. For a given win rate you can manufacture wins, thus having a record of sessions of lots of short wins and fewer but rather larger losses.

So having a 75% winning session rate is attainable -- if you manufacture your wins.
Thanks for this insight. I certainly don't have the stats background that you do but this was very helpful.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-25-2019 , 06:15 PM
Stats for the year:

Live
1/2 189hrs +2860 $15.11/hr
1/3 556hrs +14853 $26.71/hr
2/5 99hrs -3117 -$31.56/hr

Live tourney
8 tourneys, cashed in 4
$3070 buy in
$25858 cash out
$22788 profit

total: 904 hrs $37384 profit

REALLY need to work on my 2/5 game and put in some hrs there..
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-25-2019 , 06:26 PM
Nice to see a good tourney score - congrats!

That’s a lot of hours for a rev and not many for a pro - what’s your situation?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-25-2019 , 07:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj294
Would you still drink if you had to pay $7 for a beer? I definitely found it way more common for people to suggest/buy a round of drinks in Vegas than anywhere in the UK. I completely agree that it's way better optics to drink beer than green tea/coffee etc though


I might have one in that case and keep the bottle for as long as possible. I like to drink independently of trying to facilitate an image and be good for the long term game so I would probably buy one or two extra if winning. I’m a rec tho, if I was fully dependent on poker for income I’d be playing higher stakes and at that point $7 isn’t significant.

Perhaps a derail. /strat.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-25-2019 , 07:04 PM
oops mispoast
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-25-2019 , 09:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
Nice to see a good tourney score - congrats!

That’s a lot of hours for a rev and not many for a pro - what’s your situation?
Thanks/ yeah I work usually only 1 day a week, am in a good situation. I'm a older guy who might retire soon
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-27-2019 , 10:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter
My session win % is 67.5% over 300 sessions and 1600 hours, with very little manufacturing as I stick to a pretty rigid schedule in my sessions.
I'm personally at 76% lifetime winning sessions. In a casino I've noticed my win percentage tends to be lower due to the rake whereas in certain home games with no rake I've been able to achieve a 90% win rate over 3000 hours.

This year I "only" won at 66% of my sessions, but that didn't matter as my hourly was at $80/hr. which is the highest I've beeb able to earn over any year. 20% at 1/3, 60% at 2/5, and 20% at 5/T. Also won a big share of a BBJ (5 figures) and a room share of a BBJ which I didn't count in my hourly. Really hoping I can continue to play/run at the same levels I have this year.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-28-2019 , 08:09 AM
Must be amazing to be able to keep getting invited back into home games where you win 9 out of 10 times. What is your secret?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-28-2019 , 10:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tanqueray
Must be amazing to be able to keep getting invited back into home games where you win 9 out of 10 times. What is your secret?
Looking like a drunken moron helps. Also, playing really loose to start and rebuying a few times. Then that $2k sitting in front of you can be “my entire buy in, I’m up ... $17 so far!”. Most players won’t notice that you’re actually only in for $1000 then. Stuff like that.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-28-2019 , 03:30 PM
Honestly just being someone who is fun to be around. People didn't seem to mind or even notice that I kept coming out ahead as it was a very low key, but well run, game. I think it also helps that I play a very LAG style and give everyone a bunch of action.

Poker is a game of egos and I think that also plays into things where people would think he's just lucky. For others I think they enjoyed the challenge of trying to beat me out of pots.

Basically make the game fun and interesting and people will want to keep playing.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-29-2019 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist
Looking like a drunken moron helps. Also, playing really loose to start and rebuying a few times. Then that $2k sitting in front of you can be “my entire buy in, I’m up ... $17 so far!”. Most players won’t notice that you’re actually only in for $1000 then. Stuff like that.
Plan sounds good if you can control how easy it is to win $2000 after losing $1000.

Not sure constantly digging out of hole and acting like a drunken fool can result in winning 90% of sessions.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-29-2019 , 05:39 PM
Riveting conversation, regardless of where the truth lies.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
12-29-2019 , 06:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tanqueray
Plan sounds good if you can control how easy it is to win $2000 after losing $1000.

Not sure constantly digging out of hole and acting like a drunken fool can result in winning 90% of sessions.
You don’t have to punt the money, but you can make some hero calls, big bluffs, or take other thin spots. Sometimes you’ll be up $2k on the initial $200 too. People remember that a lot less than how easily you threw chips in the middle.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote

      
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