I am one of the 2+2 members actively participating in the collection of data from the Mike Postle video streams in the spreadsheet some of you have seen.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=2047845704
Myself and my associates of the spreadsheet data and analysis believe the information will prove to be invaluable. There are additional spreadsheets containing much more additional information that will be published when they are completed. This is exhausting work and the pay really sucks. We feel however that complete and accurate information is critical in this case of "alleged" cheating. My personal focus thus far has been on the sessions that Mr. Postle played before the alleged cheating began. This is a gold mine of information and makes any subsequent case for cheating a compelling one.
My question for the 2+2 membership today is in regards to win-rate (bb/hr). What is an average win-rate for each class of player? Recreational? Regular? Professional? Does such analysis even exist anywhere?
Let me probe the question further with some #'s I created out of my head, these #'s are guesstimates and have no statistical basis behind them.
Player pool: 1 Spaz -22bb/hr, 1 Rec -8bb/hr, 3 Regs 0bb/hr, 3 good Regs 5bb/hr, 1 Pro 10bb/hr. Assuming these statistics are accurate and in isolation, the average results of the pool would be -5bb/hr. This is the type of result that I might expect after considering the table rake. Does anyone know what is the table rake at the Stones live stream?
While I was writing this up and thinking it through I have come to the conclusion that the best comparison for Postles win-rate and other statistical matters is the Stone live stream opponents themselves. This information is available on the streams and seems to me to be the best comparison of Postel's actual results. Maybe I could collect it if i had another 1000 spare hours. Thoughts? Comments?

Table rake is closer to 50bb/hr at 1/3. The BB rate goes down as the stakes go up, but at absolutely no table is it as low as 5bb/hr.

As far as the winrates, we really haven't looked at loss-rates ITT, but a rough estimate of break even for OMC and some ABC players, 5bb/hr for competitive regs who study, and 10bb/hr for pros seems supportable based on what I've seen ITT over the years.

Mind you, I hear the Stones stream game plays really deep, which likely pushes the winrates up for the winning players.

Yeah, so I thought if their 1/3 game is often 3K deep then a 10x winrate might not be unreasonable. If a good winner at 1/3 does 10bb/hr, maybe a good winner on Stones stream is 100bb/hr. I think MP was doing 200bb/hr. Personally, I don't think it's about the winrate, it's that he makes ridiculous plays but never wrong.

He was talking about an avg of -5BB/hr per player which puts it around -45BB/hr total at a 9 person table.

Just no.

There is not a 1:1 relationship with stack sizes and win rate. That would imply that all hands that are played are okayed at 10x the size they were previously.

So instead of opening for 15 when I'm 300 deep, now I'd open for 150 when 3000 deep. Totally absurd.

Ahh, that makes sense. That's what I get for posting in the middle of the night when I can't sleep.

I agree that 10x winrates is way too much of an adjustment. First off, I don't think the average stack is 3K at that game. It's deep, but it's not that deep. Secondly, it doesn't really scale that way. I'm not sure exactly how it scales and what a proper adjustment might be, but I think the idea of looking at what a standard open sizing is might help.

I recently hit 2k hours, link below.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...ostcount=24226

Personally, the 1k hour seemed a reasonable sample. The 1-2k sample showed ~8% improvement, confirming a consistent sequential (and overall) w/r.

Now, getting that w/r higher is another thing … LOL

I've been wondering if people have accounted for straddles in the comparison-to-potripper graph? Like I thought I saw a Mike Postle hand in a 5/5 game that had a $40 UTG straddle out. To be fair, you can't really claim it's a $5 BB hand if there is a big straddle... (All this being said, he cheated, I'm not at all trying to argue that fact.)

I hit 3k live hours earlier this year. This spans from 2016-present. 2500+ of those hours are at 2/5 $500 cap. As you can see, my results have improved over the last chunk of hours. I feel like I have really honed in on how to exploit the guys I play against all the time with great success. I've plugged some huge leaks & I'd like to think I am expanding my edge in the games I play. Buuuuuuut I could also be running hot over the last 600 hours. Time will tell.


Hours 0-500 = 5.19 BB/hr
Hours 501-1000 = 4.34 BB/hr
Hours 1001-1500 = 5.26 BB/hr
Hours 1501-2000 = 4.41 BB/hr
Hours 2001-2500 = 5.18 BB/hr
Hours 2501-3000 = 11.73 BB/hr
Hours 3001-3073 = 16.67 BB/hr

Nice results!

What do you think were the huge leaks you plugged?

Ggogogo!imoG

Biggest ones off the top of my head are:

1. Honed in on my pre-flop ranges. End result was tightening up, not leaking in the blinds and early position.
2. Sizing up pre-flop, especially over limps. Often to 6x or more.
3. Started 3-betting a little more linearly against common passive tables.
4. C-bet more appropriately - I used to aimlessly fire flop without a plan. (Crush Live Poker c-bet matrix was very helpful)
5. Stopped pushing draws against guys who weren't going to fold top pair
6. Learned to bet-fold or just fold in general, especially on the river. I took an attitude for awhile that I wanted to try to get bluffed. Just so I could learn to fold in spots where I should. Man I used to pay everybody off, and somehow I still won!

Well played! That last 600 is especially nice.

Is the BI still capped at $500?

1. As of now, where are the best locations to play 1/3 or 2/5 mostly? I remembered years ago i played at borgata at 1/2 this was a long time ago, i remember the games were pretty bad. But on the boardwalk, games were much softer. Of course this was a long time ago. But borgata is still only place to play in ac right? Heard other east coast places like boston and pennsylvania has lot of games there.



2. Is low stakes poker in vegas horrible now? Heard games are very bad. Many years ago i was there for a short while and played 1/3nl there for few months. The games there was soft... but wynn was not that soft... notice lot of regs there. But are games much tougher now that if someone plays abc, its not profitable? Or its still profitable up to 2/5?



3. To those that play 2/5nl full time im curious how much loss/profit do you have a range from? Example i could imagine if you play 2/5nl deepstack, having -3k days is certainly possible right if you buyin 1k or 1.5k? Im curious what was the biggest win a 2/5 reg has had in one day. I mean anyone here had like a 10k profit for a day at 2/5? I assume 2/5 players expect to have losing days of up to 1500 as normal and up to say 2500 profit?



4. Is there a reason why when i look at bravo live, theres just very few 5/10nl games going? I mean when i think of a live pro cash game player, i always picture them playing at least 2/5... so 5/10 and say 10/20nl and up. But if there are this few 5/10nl game that goes, wouldn't that mean very few 5/10nl+ pros? I mean when i check bravo app and look at borgata for example, they dont have any 5/10 during the week.. only 2/5. East coast rooms like mgm etc... i think you might get at most 2 games of 5/10nl only during the week? If thats the case, wouldn't that mean lot of very good pros just grind 2/5 instead? Thus making it worst for average/breakeven players playing 2/5 ?


Even when you look at vegas rooms on the app, rarely you see 5/10 besides bellagio and wynn.



5. Are there any full time 1/3 or 2/5 regs that only play 1/3 or 2/5 and never moved up in stakes? Because what they made was okay for them and game was good where they make enough and don't have plans to move up? I can imagine a 2/5 player playing some 5/10 and getting outmatched and going to play their regular 2/5 game. But are there any very good 1/3 players that can't profit at 2/5?



6. Do you think there are many 2/5 players that pull in on average 50k a year full time and done it in consisent years? Say they been doing it at least 5 years plus? Surely there has to be some right?

Pauly James

1. you will find the best games in the hinterlands
2. Its low stakes live - its still profitable
3. Dude named LAG used to poast up trip reports in LVL he has had 5 figure days
4. There are plenty of guys that used to play 5/t regging it up in 2/5
5. I have personally witnessed both sides of the coin on this one.
6. I personally know plenty of 2/5 players that win greater than 50/year

If you are playing 2/5 "full time" and you aren't making more than $50K, then either you have serious leaks in your game or your definition of "full time" is different than mine and you arent playing anywhere near "full time" hours.

This exact response is a classic example of why people think you are an as shole. A person asks a simple question and you post up this. I highly advise reading how to win friends and influence people.

Thanks! Yes still capped at $500.

The dude asked a question and I gave him an honest answer. How does that make me an *******? Nothing I said was an insult to him or anyone else. His post makes it clear hes been away from poker for a while and hes trying to see what things are like nowadays.

All you told him was that you know some guys that do it. So? Maybe making $50K is super hard but you know some highly skilled players. Maybe making $50K is easy. You basically told him nothing. Congrats.

A full time player should be playing something like 1800 hours a year. To make $50K he doesnt even need to make $28/hr. That's not that hard to do. For a rec player it is but not for a full time poker player.

"Hes either lazy, or not skilled." Is the essence of your post, Mike.

You dont see how that could be insulting?

Congrats!

Serious question: do you subtract lunch breaks, etc, from your hours played?

I'm just trying to wrap my head around the hours. Assuming you've played almost every day this year, we can call it 270 days, averaging over 11 hours/day. It seems like a brutal schedule.

I think I might be capable of beating 2/5 for 5 BB/hr, playing once or twice a week (mostly Saturdays because I work full time). I don't think I could ever put in this type of workload without getting burned out.

Do you see a big difference in your win rate based on what time & day you're playing?

Mike you have my sympathy. I now completely understand. I will never interact with you again. I am now placing you on ignore. Please do the same for me. Best of luck in all of your future endeavors.

This is spread over 4 years, so not quite the volume you were trying to wrap your head around! I do not clock out for breaks or food, though I am a verrrrrrry minimal break taker, so it doesn't affect my stats all that much. I classify myself as a very serious rec player I guess. I try to play 2-3 times per week. Often times once during the week and then try to get 2 weekend sessions in when possible. I have my win rate broken down by day and winrates are substantially higher on the weekends (as you would imagine).

Mon = 6.06
Tues = 6.40
Wed = 4.26
Thurs = 5.08
Fri = 13.55
Sat = 11.08
Sun = -2.63 lol

2016 = 150 hours
2017 = 1450 hours
2018 = 850 hours
2019 = 650 hours

I definitely notice myself wanting to play less and feeling more burnt out as time has gone on.

Well, first of all the guy who asked the question didnt sound like a guy who is playing 2/5 full time. He sounds like a guy who has been out of the poker circles for a while and is just asking a general question about the state of 2/5 players. I dont see how what I said could be insulting to him at all.

Second of all, the fact still remains that if a full time 2/5 player cant make more than $28/hr he's not very skilled and if he makes a lot more than $28/hr but doesn't play very much hes lazy. It is what it is.

I would say the same thing to my son if he was a full time 2/5 player not breaking $50K. Work harder and get better. If people want to be babied they should go talk to their Mom.

Mike,

Stick with 2+2 vernacular. Just say, “it depends”.

You’ll get more +1 comments.

Won’t help the OP, but you won’t get flamed.

Thanks for response squid. I remember you posted you had like one of the highest winrate at venetian years ago. But did you play much 5/10 in vegas back then or only rarely? If you did, what was the reason?


Was it because the skill level is much bigger? Also when you played 2/5 at V, did you buyin 500 or the max 1k?


Im guessing a 2/5 1k game ws much softer than a 5/10 1500 max at bellagio? I always wonder why so many skilled players play mostly 2/5.


Well why is it even back then, you rarely see that many 5/10 tables? Because its like when very good skilled players play 2/5, its hard for 1/3 players to move up since they get sharks at 2/5. I remember a long time ago ppl said bellagio use to have 2/5nl as the lowest limit. So i could imagine how soft that was back then.