Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
So whats your point? That my win rate ceilings are impossible to reach? Or that you dont know anyone that does it? Or that only the top 0.1% can do it? What exactly?
I don't have a point beyond what I've mentioned. I would just like to get as realistic a picture of what true win rates can be as possible.
I'll always be skeptical of the higher numbers, like I would be with Amway guys, Uber drivers, bar tenders, etc. I'd like to be wrong on this though, cuz, as I said, I wouldn't mind making 6 figures as the second best 2/5 player at the table, earning a mere 10 or 11 bb.
Maybe the typical 1/3 rec really does lose $58/hr. It seems very high, but I don't really know. Maybe I figured it wrong. It's a part of the puzzle though. The money has to come from somewhere. You can't tell me more money is coming out than going in.
The market equilibrium thing continues to be a sticking point. We've seen it over the years with, well, Uber is a good example. At first, people DID crush it. Now there are way too many drivers. I'm not an expert but it seems like it used to be fairly easy to make a killing reselling on e-bay, but now it's hard because a million people moved in. Being a youtuber, kind of the same thing. Why not poker?
I'm not smart enough to know when outliers are just examples of survivorship bias. Being in the top .1% of poker players certainly wouldn't be. Maybe being in the top .1% of grinders, or long term winners? Maybe someone gooder at math could chime in.
I do think there's probably a distinction between saying, what would a perfect poker cyborg make, or even what would phil ivey make, vs saying what you'd make as one of the very best players in your pool. If "cieling" means the cyborg rate, then yeah, it could be pretty damn high.