I don't track my own win rate because I'm not sure what it even means and I hate record keeping. The games are changing, my play is changing. Sometimes I'm playing a crappy game for a promo. Sometimes I've decided to do Spanish lessons on an app for a couple hours while being a nit at 1/2 because, why not make $10-14/hr while doing my lessons? Or do the same thing while working on sports bets or something else. And the sample sizes are tiny.
However, I think it's a worthwhile subject to look at overall, by surveying the win rates of many other players and thinking about the broader issues.
Like, if I became convinced that a very good 2/5 player can make $75/hr full time, long term as a true win rate, then I might sharpen up my poker game expecting to make at least $50. I am pretty good, not great, at poker. Particularly live poker, and chatting people up and all those elements. So $50 seems pretty plausible IF $75 is really doable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ranma4703
The issue with arguing that people would just scoop up the poker money if it was there is off. Being an entry level programmer is easier than being a 5+bb/hr winner and pays like 70k plus great Healthcare. And there aren't enough programmers. It's been this way for years.
With that said, I've played poker in my area for ten years and there are not many people who are pros past two years. Some do, but a lot turn over... Some I still see at 1/2 or 1/3 every once in awhile. Variance is too high live poker is too slow
Hobby players last longer
That's a good point, and some people just won't go for it.
I actually have a couple of friends who are broke and it drives me crazy, cuz I will find some way for them to make easy money and they'll pass it up every time.
On the other hand, IDK if being a programmer is that easy for everyone. I'm dyslexic and stuff like that is a bear for me. Just endlessly staring at a screen and punching in numbers in a corporate office would be hell. (I'm assuming that's what they do).
Maybe someone is a teacher because that's what they want. But they'd also like an enjoyable side job to make more money. Maybe they are an aspiring creative. A grad student.
While it's not for everyone, playing poker is fun for a lot of people and at least tolerable for a lot of others. You make your own hours. You can travel and spend a few hours playing to offset the cost. It's really pretty cool.
I mean, this is a poker forum. We should all understand why playing poker profitably can be very appealing for the right person.
Now, to Johnny's point, I also know a lot of really smart people, gambling experts even, who are not really cut out for poker. But I think some of the types he's talking about, probably make enough money that it's not worth taking seriously.
I'm not saying that out of 330 million, or however many are adults, that a million will take that $35/hr tax free doing a leisure activity. Or 100,000. But might 10,000? That is one person in 33,000.
Would 10,000 semi regs making 10bbs/hr have a pretty big impact on the poker economy?
IDK. but, in 1/3 you've got the house taking, say, $120/hr off the table. Dealers and waitresses about $40. (both conservative) You've got a couple nits who win 5bb ($30 total). You're the crusher taking 16bb ($48). Now someone sits in making 10bb ($30). So the remaining players have to lose $268/hr. $53/hr each.
Now, what if say, 1/7,500 people is able and willing to pick up that easy money?
I think more people than that play division 1 college football or basketball.
Last edited by ES2; 09-18-2019 at 02:34 PM.