negative on both fronts. #rip

It was beautiful while it lasted

No idea about tuckmans game, but buying your 1st house in your 30s isn’t really a qualifier for anything. There are a lot of reasons why people don’t buy houses. It’s debatable if buying is even really a better financial decision than renting.

Additionally, many poker players don’t play close to 2k hours/year

Tuchman's game is super sloppy & oldschool. There's supposed to be new blood coming in to replace Ki & Conlan, so for now, Bart & Rob are the only voices on CLP I trust. Nothing personal against Dave, but I think he'd even admit that he doesn't play much poker now a days. I can certainly see him crushing in the 2003-2013 era though.

Ironically, Bart took a question on renting vs. owning during last night's CL Call-in. He made a case for renting.

So you think any smart person can read a few books, subscribe to a training site and crush 1/3 for whatever win rate 1/3 can be crushed for? That is completely ridiculous.

Not a chance in hell.

As a whole, the books and videos are laughable for live poker. Some are good obviously but there's a lot more of it that's totally outdated. What's worse is that most people misapply what they learn.

As a general rule, very few people have patience and discipline needed for high level poker. No matter how smart they are. They cant even concentrate long enough to put their phones down and watch the hands they aren't in. Smart people are no different.

People want instant gratification. I dont care how many books you read or training websites you subscribe to. It takes 1000s of hours of playing actual live poker to get to crusher level. People don't want to put in the work. Most people would lose for a while or win at a very low rate for quite a long time when they start out. You cant just take a smart person give him some books and say "there you go...now you can make $80K playing 1/3". Your theory of people doing it so easily is ridiculous but just because it cant be done so easily by any smart person doesnt mean it cant be done. Its being done.

Even most people posting here just want to play a basic strategy that will allow them to win a decent amount. They don't want to open their minds and push things. Its uncomfortable. Those people will never ever become crushers and because they aren't doing it they think is cant be done.

I happen to be the opposite. I wonder how high the ceiling really is and what can I do to get there.

Mike can certainly come across as abrasive, but I'm in his camp on this one. It takes a very specific type of personality to succeed in live poker and being 'smart' is only a small portion of it.

You hear the same talk in all industries. Oh I could easily make *large amounts of money* in *insert industry here* like you do. It's just not true and it's usually insulting to people who are achieving at a high level.

The other thing about poker specifically is risk of ruin. It's true you don't need a big bankroll to get started, but you can certainly go broke if you don't get up to speed quickly. Similar to why 90% of startups fail. It's very hard and not everyone can do it.

Marsh

Another +1, excellent work Mike. I will say that i truly believe you have become one of the best resources on this forum for livepoker over time in my opinion, especially considering you are posting consistenly several days a week- often everyday.

Also i would like to add lack of a balanced mind/tilt control regarding your post above. Very very few people have the ability to keep playing well against players who is sitting on their money right beside them, maybe after taking a bad beat or three. Maybe they can push themselfes to do it one or two nights in a row, but if the bad run continues they simply cant take the pain. They either go on a period where they lose their entire roll, or they simply dissapear from the games. Many players i know play very fine when they are sunrunning and cant bring themself to have a losing game- its when the bad run starts to come you see what people are made of.

You cant read yourself to having a balanced mind/body regarding to grinding poker over a longer timespan.You either have it or you dont in my opinion, even though you can exercise your pain threshold quite a bit- but the foundation of wanting to deal with it have to be there regarding your post about putting in the work.

I didn’t listen to that but from my own due diligence it’s a lot closer than most people realize. Granted, I own, but that’s mostly because my wife still has money ideas from the 1950s, so the added hassle of dealing with my wife actually factors in

Hahaha.

I'm on the other side primarily for portfolio diversification, tax benefits. Much depends on the individual market. I invested in the Southern California market in the late 90's, so that factors into my pov.

Long time lurker here. Fantastic post Mike, I totally agree with you on this one. I have always questioned myself the same, I think the ceiling is very high but for the most people not Worth the time and work they have to invest into it. The 99% of winning regs and rec players will stick to their basic strategies forever, happy to grind their 5bb/hour and eventually someday get bored and quit the games. What do you think are the skill that separate a standard winning reg to a Crusher? Also what are the skills that a player can obtain in thousands of hours of grind that will elevate him to Crusher level.

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Is it fair to ask what proof there is that long time crushers actually exist?

Git'safairquestion,right?G

I have a house, a wife, a daughter, a dog, a full time job, and try to do things in life other than play poker and be responsible. I don't have time anymore to be anything better than a solid winner. If I were a crusher, I'd probably be a bad Dad. A bad person entirely. It's not about will, attention span, or discomfort for many of us.

I put in quite a bit of work before 2017-18 though and have a boatload of live experience. Still pretty ****ing easy to be a solid winner today.

Wow thanks for this post cannabusto! Do you know how many live hours you have just out of curiosity?

Also,

What do you think about this? I know u are obviously good for the game/extremely friendly and just a great person to have at the table. I try to do this as well and be kind and friendly to my table mates.

I think if you focused a lot more and tried to actively watch every hand I would pick up on more stuff but I don’t.. I think long term I may be losing money by doing this but honestly it might be moren+EV to be known as a friendly nice player at the local card room.

Thoughts?

How did we get from $30/hr at 1/2 and $60 /hr at 2/5 is possible....to buying a yacht?

Not one person said Richard was doing poorly. He's doing well for a serious rec player who gets in maybe 10-15 hours / week.

I typed out a long response but it was much too long and strat oriented especially for this win rate forum. In short, normal winning regs play way too ABC. There is just so much money that you can win at a poker table playing ABC. You only get so many value hands and they come only so often at the same time that someone else has a hand to pay you off with. That's why these guys think the win rate ceiling is fairly low and they normally think its right about what they win. Somewhere in the 5-8BB/ hr range. That's a nice win rate but its not the ceiling. They cant figure out how its possible to win more. The answer is that they cant until they break away from ABC play.

Winning players with a strong background in the fundamentals can become crushers when they start thinking outside the box.

Crushers win much more with no showdown.
Crushers show up with hands nobody expects based on the action.
Crushers know when to bluff and more importantly who to bluff.
Crushers are expert hand readers and can narrow down people ranges to a very small number of possible hands.
Crushers read betting patterns and use them against people to exploit them.
Crushers rep hands based on how they know the other guy would play that hand not based on the hand they actually have......ect

Honestly some of my best plays are the ones that people here say don't/won't work. One mans "over played hand" is another mans "win without showdown" profit.

Very good points. This next level would take a lot of time, effort and probably a lot of fails through the way and that scares the vast majority of the players that they are not even trying getting this good. If you have only limited time for poker or if you don't have discipline and a rock solid mindset, you will never become a Crusher. Thank you again Mike, If you have this long response saved somewhere, feel free to pn me, i like the discussion a lot.

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1) I don't think that any smart person can read a book and become great at poker.

But if a live crusher can make 16bb/hr at 1/3 as a full time job, I think it stands to reason that a person who develops a well balanced game, and adds in some exploits here and there can make 10-12 bb/hr playing on friday and saturday nights. That's $30-36/hr tax free, which is like $40-45/hr. Given the nature of the work, that is a really sweet part time job for many many people.

There are 330 million people in the US. The 80th percentile in intelligence (a complicated topic we'll gloss over) is 66 million. Let's say 1/10 are tilt resistant and have the other qualities to be a solid player. That's 6.6 million.

Might be wrong, but I'd say unleashing a few thousand good semi-regs would really put a dent in the games. 1% of 6.6 million is 66,000.

Obviously, I'm mainly pulling these numbers out of my butt. But I just find it hard to believe there aren't at least 10,000 people who can and would scoop up that money util the opportunity ended.

I mean, the house is taking well over $100/hr off the table. The dealers and waitresses are effectively having Phil Ivey in the game. A crusher is makig 16/bb. Good players are making 12bb. An OMC is making 5bb. Where is all this money coming from?

2) I understand that, for any given individual, the seeming disconnect between their purported income and their lifestyle can be explained away.

Sure, maybe a waiter (Tuch and Bart's pre poker jobs) could stumble on to a way to make $120/hr in cash doing something they enjoy, and then just be like, eff it, I'm only going to put in 15 hours a week.

Maybe someone could believe that CA real estate is such a terrible investment that, though they could buy a decent condo with cash, it is better to punt off rent money for years and years. I do in fact know some people who make a lot of money and choose to rent. But they have particular reasons.

The thing is, making that kind of money is like being a pretty successful lawyer, without law school, without debt and without having to work your way up the ladder. If you are doing that as a single, young man you either come away with a lot to show for it, or you were having some real wild times.

Whether it's making 16 bbs/hr at 1/3, 14 at 2/5 or 12 at 5/t (Again, in cash) my overall impression is just that poker players lifestyles don't match those of other people who make that kind of money. Including the fact that so many people wind up walking away from poker.

This includes other gamblers. Really, I don't know any 5/10 crushers. I do know some good APs. They have paid off houses, rental properties, piles of precious metals, etc. etc.

I think it's just human nature that when your income is not clearly defined, some people are going to be wildly optimistic and others will be FOS. e.g. I used to do rideshare and on those forums, there were always a few people claiming to make $40/hr. I think some of them actually believed it. Maybe a couple were the true super stars of rideshare and actually did it. This is why multi-level marketing and similar stuff exists.

I think there are 2 main things going on. 1) Survivorship bias. 2) People dismiss massive downswings.

Again, it's really easy to say, that time years ago, where you just got crushed is no longer relevant. Back then, you went on tilt but now you wouldn't. You've improved your strat. etc. etc. I find myself falling into such beliefs.

One reason I'm not as likely to believe these things is that I do other gambling and see the crazy variance. Playing 10 line video poker at hundreds of hands an hour, you'll see many lifetimes of live cash game poker. I posted a screen cap here of when I drew an open ended straight flush draw IN DUECES WILD, and missed it 10/10 times. It was just a funny thing that happened in VP, but in live hold em it would be absolutely brutal. At the same time, you might go years without seeing it and come to believe it wasn't there.

TL : But I actually did read.

Summary...ES2 cant do it so he doesn't believe it can be done. You're welcome to your opinion.

I know for a fact it can be done and I also know for a fact I'm not the best low to mid stakes player in the US...therefore other people can do it also.

PS...Over about a 4-5 month period last year I missed 14 out of 15 OESFD while all in on the flop. The one I did hit (hit the flush not the straight flush obviously) the guy hit a boat and I lost that one too. That's all included in my win rate. Variance is brutal. We all know that but it doesn't change the fact that win rate ceilings are higher than most people here think.

It's not really about me. It's more the broader points I identified.

I do not consider myself a great player and I don't track my win rate. However, I usually think I'm the best 1/2-1/3 player in the game and often at 2/5. I'm not an ABC nit. I make a few extra buy ins a year calling with A high or worse, making hero folds, bluff raising the river etc. Things I see very few doing. I'm a big ole hippy meditator and don't tilt much. Point being, I do not think that my win rate must be the ceiling, but I just don't see a lot of people who seem to be dramatically better than me, winning pots I would not have left and right. Doing things that blow my mind.

Nor do I often see recs who are totally hopeless punting off buy in after buy in, like there were 10 years ago. So I'm not sure where all this money would come from.

When talking with players who I feel are good grinders, they are far more likely to mention having a roommate than buying a decent car or even eating out at a really nice restaurant. I've just never had the impression that a 1/3 grinder made 70k in cash or a 2/5 player made six figures in cash. And I actually think it's possible to do that for a couple of years if you run good!

That doesn't mean that absolutely zero people pull it off, but at a certain point that can just be survivorship bias. Though, of course, there are some truely great players out there. It's not like I don't believe a guy like Doug Polk is rich from poker. But it's not because he won 40bb at midstakes, it's cuz he won half a bb at nosebleeds (or whatever).

That's just the anecdotal/personal side, though. It's not about me and it's not just me. I had a meal with a guy who is a poker beast, above 5/10, and he was kind of skeptical of anybody making over 10bb at any level once positive variance was truly weeded out. That dude is way better than either of us, so it ain't about that.

The issue with arguing that people would just scoop up the poker money if it was there is off. Being an entry level programmer is easier than being a 5+bb/hr winner and pays like 70k plus great Healthcare. And there aren't enough programmers. It's been this way for years.
With that said, I've played poker in my area for ten years and there are not many people who are pros past two years. Some do, but a lot turn over... Some I still see at 1/2 or 1/3 every once in awhile. Variance is too high live poker is too slow
Hobby players last longer

So let me get this straight. You're going on and on and on about win rate ceilings and how you dont believe certain numbers that Ive thrown out there.

But you dont even track your own win rate? You have got to be kidding me.

this isn't a great argument, especially because we're talking about gambling. there are too many factors that can't be accounted for for why your numbers could be drastically off.

anecdotally, i work in a math heavy field with many people who are smart enough to get PhDs. people know i play poker. literally no one in my office of over 100 people has ever talked to me about themselves playing poker. why? because poker (or any advantage play) as a long term winning idea is an extremely fringe idea. many people are risk adverse. many people have religious concerns. many people have family/friends that they don't want to deal fighting against. many people find the idea of spending hours in casinos as not a great use of time. etc. etc. etc. and because of that, you can't just take a population # and reduce it with factors to get to a number of what a poker population should be.

and from the other side of that coin, the people i do know that are extremely smart people that do play poker are generally terrible. they're just hobbiests.

poker is a lot like golf in many ways. this is also one of them. many people love to golf. most of those people are pretty terrible at golf, relatively speaking. being good at golf is a lot of hard work. a lot of time at ranges or greens practicing. most people, even people who physically are capable of being very good golfers just don't care enough to actually do so. most people are content to go play a round or 2 per week or month and be done with it. that's what poker is.

I don't think that's quite what he's saying. I think he's simply suggesting that there doesn't exactly seem to be an overwhelming abundance of evidence around backing up these crushing claims.

And as a ~twice-a-week-summer-golfer who never goes to the range and is horrible, I completely understand your comparison. The thing is, I've seen a *bunch* of evidence, both first hand in person as well on TV, that clearly suggests scores far better than my ~90s are very possible.

But I don't see nearly as much evidence of that in LLSNL games, especially the lowest rake traps, especially ones with limited BIs / small stacks (i.e. the type of game that a large percentage of posts in this forum are about).

Ggoodluck!G