My 2019 so far...pretty bleak and I am where Mike is questioning why I continue to do this to myself on the ride home from sessions. Unlike Mike, I have played poorly on top of running badly and I DO tilt unlike some here. I just can't find a way to get out of this spiral so am looking for any suggestions.


Total Hours 138.75
P/L ($3,584)
Hourly ($25.83) -8.25 BB/HR

1/2 $128/63.25 hrs
2/5 ($3,984)/47.25 hrs
1/3 PLO $182/28.25 hrs

I have had 2 really awful sessions of 2/5 this year (-$1900 and -$1600 over 12 hrs total), so maybe I am over-reacting. But I am really struggling mentally.

Shorn

Sorry, shorn7. We've all been there. What type of games do you have to choose from? Are you stuck in one place with one set of opponents or do you have options?

It looks as if you should stick with 1/2 for a while and get your confidence back. Maybe set a stop of $1,000 at 2/5 if you move back up, just so the losses won't be quite so tilting? I know it crushes me when I lose that extra buy-in. (That said, it looks as if a lot of your losses came from those two sessions, and it really is only two sessions -- sucks, but you can definitely come back from that!)

Only 139 hours? That's a really small sample. But we're still going to try to make sense of it.

I think you need to play more $1/2 and PLO instead of $2/5. The reduced size of the $1/2 will help your mental state. PLO's variance may be bad, but if you're decently solid it's a great game.

Are you buying in full for $2/5? So that those -$1900 and -$1600 sessions represent 4 and 3 bullet losses?

I would suggest very highly a 2 BI stop loss for you. Some people can handle getting in 5-6 times, others really can't. But even if you can handle it mentally getting hosed that often is a sign that you might just be completely overmatched on that table and not realize it.

If you hit that stop loss and don't want to drive home, switch games. Or start at $1/2 and move to $2/5 if the table looks particularly juicy. One of the biggest leaks that players have is the idea that they are "a $2/5 player now" and just sit in that game regardless of the table conditions like a drunken whale punting chips at the $1/2 game 2 tables over.

Looking at my stats, I had four sessions in a row (1/2, 1/2 PLO, 1/3, and ROE) where I lost $3,840, so I definitely feel your pain!

Thanks. Actually have three rooms to play now, 2 in NH and Encore Boston which recently opened. All within 30 mins of home. So I do have some choices which is good.

Agree on moving down to 1/2 for a while as 2/5 has been a disaster. I feel like I am strong enough to play there full time, but the short term results say otherwise. I have a lot of trouble with a stop/loss, but I might just need to stick to it. Biggest issue for me is that I get to play only once per week so I tend to maybe play when I am in a bad frame of mind because it will be 7 days until I get to play again.

It is a small sample for sure so again, maybe I am over-reacting a bit. But this year has been like night and day to 2018 where I seemed to crush no matter what I did. I definitely have some entitlement tilt issues that I struggle with, especially when I see players that I think are inferior rack up huge win after huge win while I am fighting to stay above water.

I agree on the "sitting in the game because I am a 2/5 player now" comment from above and game/table selection is one of my weaker skills. I will keep that in mind though next time I am tempted to move tables to a bigger game when I am doing fine where I am.

Yeah game does seem to come in bunches doesn't it? LOL at ever getting to "the long run"....

I feel your pain here, too. I have one room about 30 minutes from home. The casinos are more than an hour away. I'm lucky to play once a week. It's hard to think of it long-term instead of "I need to win right now, tonight."

One thing that's helped me is being able to play online on an app vs. many of the people I play live and at the same stakes. Scratches the itch, at least a little

Dropping down steaks and setting a stop loss (especially if you tilt) are both very good suggestions, imo. Just make sure you treat the lower steaks with respect (which you may have trouble doing since their is probably going to be entitlement / I'm-a-bigger-player-at-the-kiddies-table / etc.).

ETA: I'm also a once-a-week player. Really just have to learn to take a relaxing zen approach to the game (I'm probably misusing that word, but know what I mean?), don't force things, and just let it happen (good or bad however it turns out, which will often be out of your control even if you play well). The game will (hopefully) still be there next week. Try (as hard as it is at times like this) to take in the big picture; you're wealthy enough to afford to lose in this game, it's a fun game / night out which you get to do once a week or so, and at the end of your lifetime you'll likely be up money (which very few will be able to claim).

Ggoodluck!G

+1. The 2 BI stop loss would be a an ideal tool especially if you tend to tilt. Personally, I still use it. You can increase your BI amounts as confidence picks up.

If you are making 50/hr playing live cash, how big of a tournament buy in would you have to be playing in order to achieve the same winrate? I assume for instance that it’s not possible to make 50/hr playing $200 buy in tournaments.

There might be too much variance in tournaments and too many other variables for there to be a good answer, but I would be curious as to people’s opinion.

Depends on field size, softness, structure, and rake. But probably somewhere around $500 Buy In.

Also highly dependent on your tourney skill and cash rate / decision making late.

You have to do it backwards.

First you need to assume average tournament duration.

Let's say it's 4hrs. In order to make $50/hr, this means you are making $200 per tournament.

Then you have to assume an ROI you have. If your ROI is 20%, in order to make $200 per tournament, then your average BI should be $1000. If however, your expected ROI is 30%, then your needed average BU drops to $660.

But really it depends on average tournament duration and expected ROI.

I would also want a higher expected win-rate to justify playing a much higher variance format.

You'll never get a live MTT sample big enough to see your ROI converge, but I wonder if you might be able to estimate it reasonably well somehow using other more reliable statistics.

so i have a slightly different question on moving up in stakes. i am for all intents and purposes a 100% live player. i play about 90% cash and about 10% tournaments, and i play full time: 4 - 6 times a week, nearly 2,600 hours cash play since jan 1 last year, and a shade over 300 hours for tournaments.

my bread and butter game is 2/3 nl, mostly because the game is ridiculously soft where i play (this year, over ~450 hours i am making 9bb/hr). i do have a dedicated 50 full buy bankroll. i have an additional dedicated tournament bankroll, and i also have a small shot-taking bankroll, which is where i have the big question:

all of the stats i see are based around online play, where you can see thousands and thousands of hands. i recently read an article that stated something along the lines of not ever being able to obtain a truly meaningful win rate live, because by the time you had accumulated enough hours to have a decent sample size, the game would be completely different and your stat would be meaningless as it related to the present game.

so, i've been taking shots at 5/5 and 5/10 this year (about 150 hours 5/5 and 180 hours at 5/10). if the article's theory is right, that is that any stat is meaningless by the time you have a large enough sample size to render it meaningful, then how do i know if i am ready to move up? at that point does it simply become a matter of bankroll size? because it seems foolhardy to say oh well since i have a bunch of money now i should go play a bigger game, without having some sort of meaningful benchmark to point to as justification...?

Any records at 2/3 won't apply to 2/5, because it is a much more aggressive game. You know you're ready for the game by sitting in it and seeing where your money is going to come from, and avoiding the people who won't give you money. If there is too much of an unbalance between the two groups, stand up. And if you can't put people into the groups, stand up.

Alternatively, just take a shot whenever you have 3 buy ins for the next level plus 25 buy ins for your current level. The only way to beat the rake is to move up stakes

Live win-rate stats are not meaningless, they just never get very precise and are not very reliably predictive for future results because game conditions change.

150 hours should be enough to have an idea of whether or not you're a winner. It seems you are over-rolled for 2|3 so if you are not losing at 5|5 I would keep shot-taking when the game is good, and eventually move up permanently as long as medium term results show you're winning more than you are at 2|3. If you're winning 9BB/h over a long term sample of 2|3 you should almost definitely be ready for the next stake and it seems you're rolled for it. The main reason to just shot take right now instead of moving up immediately is to get comfortable with the bigger pot sizes and better players. You probably should leave for 2|3 if you get deep until you get comfortable with the new stake. I wouldn't play 5|10 yet though.

If your shots fail you can always back off and focus on 2|3 for awhile with a very healthy 50 BI bankroll. I think your BRM strategy is too conservative, though. If you're playing full-time you want to be more aggressive and move up as soon as safely possible.

Omg do I haz a story 4 u Boise later

You're such a tease, fish! It better be good.

Your w/r @2/3 is 9 bigs per. When you sit at the table you can most likely "taste your edge". You are prolly playing circles around your opponents. Just about every hand played you see mistakes that you can exploit...and you are not getting punished at all - every hand you have a gameplan and you are seldom surprised

When you step up to 2/5 the players will be a little tougher...but you should feel similar. You understand what everyone is up to. There may be a dude who you cant quite figure out. But if there are 2 or 3 of those at the table...there BETTER be some whales dumping piles cuz being the 3rd or 4th best player at the table aint gunna work. After 150 hours you should know in your heart of hearts where you stand.

i seem to have been following this right now, albeit for different reasons. i've played the 5/5 a bit, and i have noticed a marked difference in the game between weekday days and weekend nights. i know it's like "duh", but i think the difference is bigger there than the 2/3. i know the friday / saturday late night shift is the most profitable, but it's like damn the game can be tough during the week. so i have been grinding the 2/3 during the week and playing bigger for a lot of the friday night drunkfests, and i've actually kept my winrate at 10 bigs (at the 5/5) over that 150 hours.

i do realize of course that is short term, and i don't consider myself a 5/5 player yet. one reason - and i am curious if this changes anyone's response - is that this is my sole income, so i am being very cautious about moving up. i have been playing a long time (20+ years) and finally wound up with enough money set aside that i could do this 100% full time. so i am probably playing more conservatively than i otherwise could.

another point i am curious about folk's responses, is that i feel the 3/5 is a non-starter for me. i know there are plenty who can make it work, but the game at my home b&m is only $300 buy, and half the time they run a straddle, so you have to play super short (even shorter than the 2/3, which allows you to buy in for $200). the 5/5 lets you buy for up to $600, so i like that a lot more. is there a compelling reason why i should play the 3/5? is it really a must do on the way up the ladder? because that game makes me kinda stabby.

Nonsense. People have to come up with something to write articles about to fill space. They love to write things that create controversy otherwise readers would be bored.

If you're playing full time and putting in 1600-1800 hrs per year as it appears you are, the games arent changing very fast at all for you in relation to the pace of hours you're playing. If it took you 3 years to get 1000 hrs in it would be different.

The games change slowly over time of course but you are playing many multiples more hours than more other players, so even though some are getting better you are getting better faster. Most players are rec players who rarely get better at all.

Based on my own experiences over 5600ish live hours from 1/2 to 5/10, Im a firm believe that win rates are a lot more reliable than most people want to believe. They aren't exact obviously. A poker player will never be able to predict his exact income next month, but you dont need to be that exact if you have a bankroll and know how to budget your money.


PS...Sounds like you're in L.A? Skip the 3/5

this makes sense.

and yes, i'm in la. play mostly at HG, although i do venture to commerce for the 5/10. the 5/10 at hg is too sharky lol.

I am somewhat familiar with both the 3/5 and 5/5 at HG. the 3/5 in general is a much looser game because of the lower buy in. People get it in much lighter. Once you double up and you have other deeper stacks at your table, I would say it's probably a better game than 5/5.

It all depends on your style. If you play tight, the 3/5 might work for you. If you play loose, you need to start with deeper stacks. I personally don't enjoy playing with or against short stacks so I choose to play the 5/5, but if you play mostly at HG, I would suggest that you try both games for a while before making one your main game.

squid_face's reply is really good.

This is a pretty good strategy. I'd get my feet wet in the weekday games, too, though. If you are overall 9BB/h at 1|3 then you should very likely have a higher $/h at 5|5 day games. If you sit down and the game is a rock garden you can change you mind.

I would only play the 3|5 if the game is much softer. Also, it's basically a short-stacked 5|10 game if it's playing with a straddle, which you might not be rolled for. 30BB can go quickly.