I'll weigh in as a MAWG as well.

That's a pretty sick grind for a part-timer. Very nice stats sir.

I took off poker for the first half of the year. Life variance, etc. It's not uncommon for me to not play outside of my buddy's $20 rebuy tourney for months on end. Sometimes I just get so sick of poker...even when things are going well.

That being said, I've managed to put in just over 300 hours this year, mostly 2/5 and 5/5 with a little 1/3 mixed in (sometimes it's the only game going, mostly I'll play 1/3 while wait-listed). I've also put in a handful of sessions at 5/10 in Vegas and 2/3/5/10 (the 2/5 Deep Stack game w/ permanent kill UTG) in San Jose when the table dynamics looked especially favorable. I'm not really rolled for those bigger games, but this is a hobby/side hustle for me so it doesn't kill me to take a stab.

1/3 - 58 hours, $1321 profit
2/5, 5/5 - 198 hours, $12,887 profit
5/10 - 47 hours, $7812 profit.

Nothing online.

I ran really hot at the 5/10 games and won some big pots in what would normally be marginal spots, but game selection had a lot to do with it. Sometimes you just get lucky and get a couple of whales dumping cash. My 2/5, 5/5 stats are skewed positive by a very lively 5/5 game that I typically play once a month when I'm in that area for business...there's some rich college kid that comes in and splashes money. Evidently his Dad has a lot of money, and this kid regularly dumps $2k to the table without blinking an eye. My straight 2/5 hourly is just under $38/hr ($5271 profit). I've got just under 60 hours at that 5/5 game that made up the rest.

thumbsup.jpg

At Commerce, for example, there is a drop pre-flop whether or not there is any action.

At the $40 buy-in, it's 50c to the main drop and 50c to the promo drop.

Even if the blinds "chop".

At the $100 buy-in, it's $1 to the main and $1 to the promo.

And so on for the larger games.

I'll add that to the long list of reasons never to go to Commerce. I've played in a few places in the Bay Area that just pulled $2-3 on the flop. LA is weird.

I'd say on average the 5/5+ at Commerce incites enough action and deep stacks to handily overcome the drop. I see it as an action tax

I don't have any experience with Bay Area casinos though so can't speak on them.

Bay Area games in my experience make LA games seem right in comparison.

Quick question for those of you more mathematically inclined.

Over 800 hours and six months of play (mostly at $1/$3, with some $2/$5 and PLO mixed in), my bb/hr. std. dev. is 90 and my $/hr. std. dev. is $200.

With a bb/hr. of 2.7 and $9.40/hr. overall, are my results statistically significant?

My hourly by month:

July: $17

August: $24

September: $19

October: -$1 (runbad/tilt)

November: -$10 (went to Vegas, got owned in PLO)

December: $28.

Thanks,
DT

No

Thanks. Does this mean I can't draw any valid conclusions from this sample size? I.e., data are totally useless right now? At what point would they become significant?

Yes, but the bounds are big. You are not yet a proven winner.

It's apples to oranges, though, with the PLO mixed in. Give me the number of hours of NL, BB/hr and SD in BB/he, and I can figure your 95% confidence interval.

I think you could be starting to draw some conclusions with 800 hours at one game and stake (am I a winning player, some broad assumptions about win rate +\- say 30% of that win rate) but it seems like you’re splitting across different stakes and games so the data becomes less useful

Also, imo don’t fall into the trap of explaining away your worst months (and probably assuming your best month are more indicative). That can only lead to bad things happening

Here's the breakdown by game type:

1/2 NL: 33 hours, $11/hr.

1/3 NL: 692 hours, $9.2/hr.

2/5 NL: 20 hours, $90.5/hr.

1/2 PLO: 51 hours, -$21.7/hr.

Thanks!

I'm being pretty honest with myself that I didn't play my best in October and got spewy at times due to tilt-inducing runbad. And the games in Vegas were tougher and I really got crushed in PLO.

Not really trying to explain away, just being real.

Only the 1/3 is statistically significant so far. I need your Standard Deviation for it to run the numbers though. Or you can.

It's 2*(standard deviation per hour in BBs)/square root of hours played

This gives you the + or - addition and subtraction from your observed on what your true winrate likely (95%) actually is.

So for you, if your SDev at 1/3 is the same as your overall one of 90BB/hr, it is
2*90/26.306, or 180/26.306, or +/- 6.84BBs hr

So with your observed winrate of 3.07BBs hr, your true winrate is (assuming this SDev is correct) 95% likely to be somewhere between negative 3.77BB/hr and positive 9.91BBs/hr.

Redo with your actual 1/3 SDev to get actual results. As you can see, the bounds are pretty big still.

Thanks again. I don't think I have the std. dev. for individual games available on the app I use, Poker Income - only the overall std. dev. And I can't turn filters on (even for the $5 it costs, which I'm willing to pay) due to a glitch in the app.

I may try removing the outlier sessions and recalculating all this manually. I suspect 2/5 and PLO are throwing my 1/3 results for a loop.

Are we talking about 1/3? Where are you from having softer 1/3 games? Not saying Vegas 1/3 games are softest in the country but it's pretty easy to figure out who the nits grinding their tier credits are and who the tourists who came to spew money are. And I've hardly seen any grinders in my current trip. The rising rake/cost of living is probably making grinding 1/3 very unappealing.

Yesterday I completed my last session of 2018, so let's post some results, because I'm in a braggy mood... I logged 566 cashgame hours this year. My goal was to try and put in 10 hours per week (two sessions), so I'm happy to have reached that target.

Total hours: 566.25
Total profit: 34,140
Winrate: 60/hr

According to my app this averages out to 16bb/hr. I mostly play 2/4, with some 5/5 and 2/2 mixed in, depending on which games are available.

Results per stake (stake/total profit/profit per hour/number of hours played):


As you can see, that 16bb/hr is pretty heavily skewed by obviously running extremely hot for 77 hours at 2/2. Even though 2/2 is wayyy softer than 2/4 and 5/5, I think it's safe to say that a €77/hr winrate is not sustainable...

Unfortunately I also like to play some MTT poker from time to time. 2017 was a good year for me, but in 2018 I only managed to cash 1 time out of 17 tourneys, which cost me about 5k total.

But all in all this was a very good year. Although I'm definitely one of the better players at my tables, I don't think I'm some sort of poker wizard by any means. I feel I have been playing well this year and last year (I've improved a lot over the last few years, for which I credit this forum in particular!), but I'm also well aware that I'm still making a lot of mistakes. I'm actually sort of waiting to run into a brick wall, but as long as I'm doing well, I'm enjoying it.

For the heck of it I'll post my graph of 2017/2018, because it adds up to roughly 1000 hours (1014 to be exact) and my 2017 winrate was not that different (50/hr) from this year's.

Nice job sir! Congrats

Nice job Homey.

Pretty crazy that you and I both posted approx $60ph results and also 1/17 mtt entries!

welp my year was lol-tastic but i’ll participate because it’s not *that* embarrassing







top venues, plus 83 hours at MGM NH for -$31



must be nice to win at 1/3

I don't understand what's embarrassing at all about those results

I agree...solid results Homer.

I managed to get in one more 2/5 session for 2018, and I can officially put this one in the books. Quick 4 hour session up $780 to add to the year's results before the fish tank dried up, but I'll take it.

My December run-good kept up...I managed to luckbox my table selection against a streak of the worst players possible this month and come out on the good end of my 60/40 and 70/30 spots. It almost feels unreal to run +EV for multiple consecutive sessions.

It depends on which game you're playing in the Bay Area. I play Matrix a few times a year, and the 2/3/5 games are usually pretty soft. The 2/3/5/10 DS ($2k max) can be outright insane. The rake is unfavorable...it's like a $5 or $6 drop on the flop, even in a limped pot. They also drop $1 pre, even on a chop. It doesn't affect the 2/3/5 game too much because there's usually plenty of action, but it can make a nitty 1/2/3 game horrendous.

Don't really post much here anymore but didn't want to be that guy that only posts results when I am on a heater and not show the full story.

2018 was a great year for me but pretty disappointing for poker. Got promoted at work / bought a house which both drastically limited my ability to get in volume.

Early in the year I was punting a bunch, then was able to bring it back positive but then ran god awful the last half of the year to close out my first losing year.

Going to shoot for about 1 session per week next year but we will see what happens. The back half of 2018 poker was basically nonexistent.

2018 Results:

Graph: https://imgur.com/a/ROeUj6q

Main Games:
2/5NL: -1,287; 231 hrs; -5.58/hr; -1.12bb/hr
T/TNL: -13,144; 122 hrs; -107.81/hr; -10.78bb/hr

Other:
1/2NL: +300, 3 hrs
1/3NL: -605; 3 hrs
T/QNL: +3760; 2 hrs
Promo: +212

Total: -10,764; 361 hrs; -29.85/hr; -4.09bb/hr


May or may not post here again. Either way gl in 2019 to everyone!

Sorry for the bad year Dizzy but thanks for posting. Hopefully encourages other people to post their results even if they’re not brilliant