Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Shai, look at live only. Online SDev is much lower, as went to showdown rates are so much lower. In live you are much more often at the mercy of the deck. bip! has a great discussion of SDev ITT from (IIRC) 2016, that is worth searching out. And just like winnings, hourly rates are much more common in live, and per 100 hands rates in online.
Richard32, your low SDev shows that you are likely passing up on a lot of +EV spots, because if you were taking them, sometimes your Vs would suck out and create bigger swings, but overall you'd win more.
Okay but you are saying the standard deviations from live are around 200BB/100 whereas online people most commonly say 80BB/100, which means live variance is (200/80)^2 = 6.25 ~ SIX times as bad? I can see how it may be worse, particularly when buying in 200BB deep vs 100BB deep as online, but it can't be that much worse. Surely? I am struggling to imagine how I could even get a SD that large. The LAGgiest winner in my room (that I know of) has 147BB/100 or 80ishBB/hr. I'll try to find these posts from Bip!
The problem with hourly standard deviation rates is statistically it's just an approximation for BB/(hands dealt per hour). It is imprecise and leads to inconsistencies like you see with GG's session SD vs. hourly SD.
@stlows - standard deviation converges much faster than winrate, I think after 325 hours it is likely fairly close to your true SD.
EDIT: Found the post you were referring to Garick. I think it's
this one
Quote:
Originally Posted by bip!
1) no one keeps track of bb/100
2) 60-80bb/100 would be ridiculously low
A typical taggy 2/5 players would probably be something like 60-70bb/hr. A little lower is possible and so is much higher.
Live poker goes 5 way to the flop for 5bb each... it is much higher variance than online. 50% vpip vs 15% vpip will do that...
Bip! says 60 - 70 BB/hr which is ~110 to 127 BB/100. If I average at 118BB/100 and take online average at 80BB/100 then variance is 2.17 times as bad live. This seems a lot more believable to me.
Last edited by Shai Hulud; 11-28-2018 at 01:32 AM.