[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 888 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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08-08-2018 , 11:13 PM

#22176

feel wrath

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 29,859

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chumbardo

Was this a drunk black dude at Maryland Live? Pretty sure I saw this hand lol

it was pretty much 180 degrees around the world from MDL

Quote

08-09-2018 , 01:44 AM

#22177

Badreg2017

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by stackz07

Is using a solver to increase your win rate relying on complicated maths at the table during the hand or more or less memorizing the hands you put through it?

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

I use a solver to get a general idea of what lines to take with different types of hands as opposed to say memorizing how to play AK on every conceivable texture. I don’t try to play GTO, but it has helped me identify certain things I could be doing differently as well as ways my opponents can be exploited. Pio has definitely led to me changing my cbet strategy for the better but I think it’s really difficult to apply my pio study in general, particularly since so many pots in my games are 3-4 ways.

Quote

08-09-2018 , 04:56 PM

#22178

whatnow88

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 239

Quote:

Originally Posted by bovadafiend

If you have a good job and can replenish your bank/life roll easily just do it.

Somethings to think about: the quality of 2/5 games I've played (midwest especially) vary greatly depending on the hours you play where as 1/2 games are pretty much always soft. Can you play late night? weekends?

Get ready to swing 10-15 buyins (at least) either way. Seems like you have limited live poker experience so be aware of how these swings (both directions but esp downswings) effect your play, attitude and overall mindset/health. Live downswings are soul crushing, its a slow game so when your buried for the week/month/quarter it can seem like its never going to turn.

If 2-5 is the biggest game at the place you play be prepared for a wider range of skill levels. Even if its not the biggest game the regs will be better and more aggressive but if its the biggest game spread in your area you will have "the best" live poker players in your area which is basically never true at 1/2.

This is hopefully partially mitigated by the fact the the fish/whales have much deeper pockets.

If its a small player pool develop/apply opponent specific strategies quickly. Don't deviate to far from your "standard game" at first but adjust/exploit to people's tendencies as much as possible. This is obviously harder to accomplish quickly in larger player pools but still important.

Other than that, play well and run hot.

GL

I can play 7am to 12 noon.
I have watched the 2/5 table every morning during the week and only 1 guy has been their consistently.
5/10 runs twice a week
Plo games play much bigger than 2/5

I don't see how I would lose 10 buyins at 1/2 or 2/5. Most my money is made value betting on the river and getting called light.
The possibility of losing 10 buyins is making me want to wait.

Quote

08-09-2018 , 05:02 PM

#22179

whatnow88

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 239

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

~$26/h isn't worth your time? Just quit poker then, IMO, because you're likely running hot and won't sustain that.

If money is not an issue then try both games and play whichever one is more fun. If you're hoping to make more than $26/h then good luck because not a lot of people can do that long term.

Yeah I played online for play chips and have a much larger sample their. Tracking software helped me the most. My wife wouldn't let me play live until I beat play chips. I learned a lot about bad players and how to exploit them.

Is the reason people can't do it long term based on their location or skill level?

Why is it that most people can't achieve 8 to 10 BB per hour?

Quote

08-09-2018 , 05:30 PM

#22180

stackz07

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 26

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnow88

The higher up you go the less you'll get called light

Quote

08-09-2018 , 05:38 PM

#22181

c0rnBr34d

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 1,257

Quote:

Originally Posted by stackz07

The higher up you go the less you'll get called light

Disagree. From 1/2 to 1/3 to 2/5 I've gotten called lighter at each level on average. I've also gotten raised lighter but that's a different conversation. The exception I'll make is pre-flop. The things people call with pre in 1/2 are classic.

Quote

08-09-2018 , 05:59 PM

#22182

whatnow88

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 239

What's a decent amount of hours to know your probably a winning player?

How can if figure this out faster?

Quote

08-09-2018 , 06:11 PM

#22183

c0rnBr34d

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 1,257

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnow88

What's a decent amount of hours to know your probably a winning player?

How can if figure this out faster?

There's a standard deviation formula on here somewhere you can search for that will give you a plus / minus range and a 90% confidence.

Quote

08-09-2018 , 07:50 PM

#22184

whatnow88

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 239

Quote:

Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d

There's a standard deviation formula on here somewhere you can search for that will give you a plus / minus range and a 90% confidence.

I found it but it's to much work compared to how important it is to me. I will just get a larger sample In the coming months.

Quote

08-09-2018 , 08:03 PM

#22185

feel wrath

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 29,859

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnow88

What's a decent amount of hours to know your probably a winning player?

How can if figure this out faster?

I would think 500 hours gets you close to knowing 'probably a winning player' and I'll guess that 1000 would get you to within +/- 4bb/hr of your 'true' win rate, albeit a) there's a huge amount of nittery itt about true wr and b) imo games and villains change really fast so you'll never get a 'true' win rate in live poker because the villains and game styles are constantly evolving

I haven't played play money poker online for many years but I did lol at the idea that 'beating' play money stakes is an indicator for beating real money stakes

Quote

08-09-2018 , 08:26 PM

#22186

whatnow88

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 239

Quote:

Originally Posted by feel wrath

It's not an indicator for beating live but it has fixed tons of my leaks. All of which I wouldn't have know about without a tracking software.

500 hours seems decent

Quote

08-09-2018 , 08:30 PM

#22187

megamen70

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 376

You don’t think you can have some indication that you are a winning player before 1000 hours played? Like I have a very small sample size but I can tell from the games just the fact that I don’t limp, open reasonable ranges and actually 3bet a range wider than KK+ I would bet money I’m already at least a slightly winning player.

Op I say go for it and take some shots if 10,000 is not a big deal but be willing to lose it

Quote

08-09-2018 , 08:51 PM

#22188

Shai Hulud

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 1,919

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnow88

What's a decent amount of hours to know your probably a winning player?

How can if figure this out faster?

If you have an absurdly high (20+BB/hr) winrate after 250 hrs you're probably winning.

If you have a very high (15+BB/hr) winrate after 500 hrs you're probably winning.

Once you get to 1000 hrs you know within a few BB/hr usually.

At 250 hrs you could be off by 10+ BB/hr

Quote

08-09-2018 , 11:09 PM

#22189

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by megamen70

You don’t think you can have some indication that you are a winning player before 1000 hours played? Like I have a very small sample size but I can tell from the games just the fact that I don’t limp, open reasonable ranges and actually 3bet a range wider than KK+ I would bet money I’m already at least a slightly winning player.

Op I say go for it and take some shots if 10,000 is not a big deal but be willing to lose it

Limping is not a disease and is the correct play in plenty of situations.

Quote

08-09-2018 , 11:22 PM

#22190

stackz07

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 26

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnow88

It's not an indicator for beating live but it has fixed tons of my leaks. All of which I wouldn't have know about without a tracking software.

500 hours seems decent

i feel like this could only work if play money played the same as real money?

Quote

08-09-2018 , 11:42 PM

#22191

megamen70

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 376

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

Limping is not a disease and is the correct play in plenty of situations.

It’s actually tilting the amount of players on this forum like gg advocating limping in all kinds of situations. Limping totally is a disease and you are just becoming a fish yourself when you limp behind. Especially the players on this forum who are learning to play and then they hear all this garbage advice to overlimp hands like ajo.

I firmly believe you will get so much better at poker by never limping. Like sure once you are a crusher at the game you can develop some overlimp strategies on co and button. Much better to err on the side of raising when you could have limped than limping when you should have raised

Quote

08-09-2018 , 11:47 PM

#22192

setintostraight

adept

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 884

Quote:

Originally Posted by megamen70

I can say with pretty high confidence that at low stakes, most people can become slightly winning players just by being giant nits and nut-peddling. Even with small sample sizes of <200 hrs

And that's exactly what people do on weekdays after midnight when there's no fish.

Quote

08-10-2018 , 02:24 AM

#22193

Badreg2017

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnow88

What's a decent amount of hours to know your probably a winning player?

How can if figure this out faster?

Here you go: http://www.pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Variance is pretty wild. There is a 4% chance even a losing player would match the 200 hour heater I’ve been on.

Quote

08-10-2018 , 02:52 AM

#22194

Badreg2017

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by megamen70

I’ll just leave this here:https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...06/?highlight=

Quote

08-10-2018 , 08:29 AM

#22195

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by megamen70

It’s actually tilting the amount of players on this forum like gg advocating limping in all kinds of situations. Limping totally is a disease and you are just becoming a fish yourself when you limp behind. Especially the players on this forum who are learning to play and then they hear all this garbage advice to overlimp hands like ajo.

I firmly believe you will get so much better at poker by never limping. Like sure once you are a crusher at the game you can develop some overlimp strategies on co and button. Much better to err on the side of raising when you could have limped than limping when you should have raised

Yes, overlimping AJ is bad, but there are plenty of hands that overlimping in LP is the best play. Limping too much and playing too passively is fishy, but being so stubborn and so close minded to limping certain hands that can be very profitable is also a leak.

4 people limp and you have 55 on the button...what are you doing? Folding is stupid and raising is pretty bad also. Limping is 100% the correct play here.

Quote

08-10-2018 , 11:34 AM

#22196

whatnow88

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 239

Quote:

Originally Posted by stackz07

i feel like this could only work if play money played the same as real money?

it doesn't play the same as real money but u can play many hands and learn from your own mistakes.

playing 6 tables you can find your leaks much faster. you can also see where the money comes from and where you are bad.

ie. i'm bad from the small blind and BB so i fold way more

Quote

08-10-2018 , 11:48 AM

#22197

stackz07

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 26

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnow88

Don't move up in stakes. If you think you have leaks in certain positions so you just fold there that is the leak.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

Quote

08-10-2018 , 11:55 AM

#22198

whatnow88

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 239

Quote:

Originally Posted by stackz07

Don't move up in stakes. If you think you have leaks in certain positions so you just fold there that is the leak.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

I don't fold %100 of the time I just play my UTG range from sb and bb. I do a lot more of 3! or fold

this is how i greatly lowered the amount I was losing from the SB and BB.

Quote

08-10-2018 , 03:37 PM

#22199

megamen70

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 376

Quote:

Originally Posted by Badreg2017

I’ll just leave this here:https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...06/?highlight=

Haha but I agree with you like I don’t think that play was good. I think I was bored and like omg I have the button take a flop in position. I think eliminating plays like this would make me a better player. That supports my argument even more if I just fold there then we avoid a bad spot. I don’t see how that refutes my argument that generally limping is bad

Quote

08-10-2018 , 04:58 PM

#22200

OvertlySexual

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,093

Quote:

Originally Posted by Badreg2017

Here you go: http://www.pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Variance is pretty wild. There is a 4% chance even a losing player would match the 200 hour heater I’ve been on.

That calculator measures BB/100 not BB/hr. So, you need to divide your observed and expected winrate by 3.3. Also, your deviation per hour doesn't translate linearly to deviation per 100 and that's one of the things that stamps me about this calculator.

If someone knows the formula for the conversion, I am all ears.

Quote

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