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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

07-16-2018 , 03:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d
Those of us who DO track would still like to have an "idea" on a yearly basis how our numbers are trending
Why?

That's not an argumentative question, I'm seriously asking..."why?"

What use is that information? What are you trying to do? Pay taxes?

My view is that if you have a job, and don't have a coke/hooker habit, then you are bankrolled indefinitely for LLSNL. After that, every second you spend thinking about win-rates, hourlies, deviations, and other such noise, is a second that you could be spending getting better at poker.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 03:21 PM
It depends on context. If you want to evaluate your profitability, then certainly include it as it's part of your EV. Also don't forget to include comps and other promotions. If you are in a dick-swinging contest, probably don't count it as it's not a measure of any poker-related skills.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RagingOwl
Why?

That's not an argumentative question, I'm seriously asking..."why?"

What use is that information? What are you trying to do? Pay taxes?

My view is that if you have a job, and don't have a coke/hooker habit, then you are bankrolled indefinitely for LLSNL. After that, every second you spend thinking about win-rates, hourlies, deviations, and other such noise, is a second that you could be spending getting better at poker.
Because I believe, and clearly we don't agree here and that's fine, that as I grow as a play and identify leaks, apply different strategies that I can get an idea of if there is an impact or not based on a 500 hr sample size. I know there can be false positives and negatives hidden in the variance but some of that can be fished out with SD. The reason is to measure / record with the goal of improving. I went with my gut for years with your exact sentiment above before I started tracking. Mostly because I felt like a winning player but I didn't know if I was making 2 BB/hr or 5 or 10, and most people would challenge me and say, "you're probably barely break even". Ok, so how do I know if I'm barely break even if I don't track at all? And how to get to the next level? And if an adjustment made any difference? Just because we cant know for certain in a small sample size how we are trending doesn't mean we shouldn't try IMO.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141
It depends on context. If you want to evaluate your profitability, then certainly include it as it's part of your EV. Also don't forget to include comps and other promotions. If you are in a dick-swinging contest, probably don't count it as it's not a measure of any poker-related skills.
This isn't fair though because if my dick swing is weighted with an extra $4h/hr rake I need to be stronger to swing at same rate...
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard32
Hi all,

I feel kind of underwhelmed with my poker results this year so far.

This year I have played 252 hours and profited a total of $1,044 playing 1/3 and some 1/2. winrate winning about $4.14/hour.

Looking at this kind of as a break even stretch.

Lifetime I have played 529 hours and won a net profit of $3,814 or $7.21 an hour

I went on a huge upswing though in vegas and won ike 3 in 5 nights in December
The overwhelming vast majority of people who play poker don't win. So even though your results are modest, you're still doing better than most.

Why do you play poker? Hopefully it's for the fun / challenge / etc., with any money made on the side as a bonus. If that's the case, and you're still having fun / being challenged / etc. while making a little money, then you're doing fine.

ETA: This year I'll complete my 9th full year of recreational 1/3 NL. I've had a $35.48/hr year (over 568 hours). I've had a $7.90/hr year (over 582 hours, just two years later). And I've had everything in-between. That's probably how poker works.

GgoodluckG
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 03:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
The overwhelming vast majority of people who play poker don't win. So even though your results are modest, you're still doing better than most.

Why do you play poker? Hopefully it's for the fun / challenge / etc., with any money made on the side as a bonus. If that's the case, and you're still having fun / being challenged / etc. while making a little money, then you're doing fine.

ETA: This year I'll complete my 9th full year of recreational 1/3 NL. I've had a $35.48/hr year (over 568 hours). I've had a $7.90/hr year (over 582 hours, just two years later). And I've had everything in-between. That's probably how poker works.

GgoodluckG

Yeah I play for fun and the challenge it gives me.

I want it to be a supplemental income to me as well though.

I have a day job though so usually just play on the weekends.

I work hard though overall to improve
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 03:45 PM
Ha, it looks like you are doing everything fine, it's just that your biggest problem might be in expectation. I've lowered my expectations massively and it's done wonders for the mental game.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 03:47 PM
I asked this a while back

some added twists

HH promo rakes are pulled from pots in some rooms even when no promo is currently running
so in effect you are paying into a pool with 0% chance to win at that time.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 03:53 PM
I'd add it to winrate because it's raked separately in most rooms, but I'm not adding a jackpot in to winrate if it's some crazy large amount. If I win an $80,000 high hand jackpot in 2017 and add it to my winrate, and my total net for the year is $25,000, should I be patting myself on the back? Of course not. I should be quitting poker.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 03:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkesDave
I'd add it to winrate because it's raked separately in most rooms, but I'm not adding a jackpot in to winrate if it's some crazy large amount. If I win an $80,000 high hand jackpot in 2017 and add it to my winrate, and my total net for the year is $25,000, should I be patting myself on the back? Of course not. I should be quitting poker.
I think this is the consensus for normal $100-$500 HH promos. My follow up question was where do you draw the line? And so far I like samo's suggestion of scaling larger promos by hours played since you are still paying for them, without blowing up small sample sizes by adding 250 hrs of profit into a 500 hr sample size for example.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d
I think this is the consensus for normal $100-$500 HH promos. My follow up question was where do you draw the line? And so far I like samo's suggestion of scaling larger promos by hours played since you are still paying for them, without blowing up small sample sizes by adding 250 hrs of profit into a 500 hr sample size for example.
I think I'd just draw the line at high hands and bonus payouts and not count bad beats. Highest amount I've seen for high hands are in the $1500-2000 range but they're generally in the $200-500 range. I don't think those can affect your winrate enough to make a difference unless you're playing a very small amount of hours in the period you allocate it towards and when you consider the rake you're paying for them with separate jackpot drops they affect it even less, if at all. Besides, any player who plays in a room that has both high hands and a bad beat jackpot are almost certainly going to lose money to the jackpot rake over multiple thousands of hours.

I'll throw out another interesting question though: Is a profitable player already automatically taking a long-term loss with high hand jackpots? Meaning, if 100% of every dollar of a high hand rake is given back to the players, do the losing players gain more money than the profitable ones? I'd guess they would, since a winning player is probably more often folding high-hand eligible type hands than a losing one. If that's the case, then high hand jackpots are poker's form of socialism (although the amounts it contributes to said socialism is fairly negligible. It would still qualify as a form of poker welfare, though).
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 08:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d
2 - Poker Bankroll Tracker: To Death's comment above this app DOES have standard deviation and a bunch of nice bells and whistles. I love the odds calculator (that supports ranges). The free version is ad based which is a minor nuisance but not terrible. It's UI is almost over the top for me. All the colors and fanciness is ok I guess but not necessary. The only thing I dont like so far about this app is the session list doesn't include play time, only location, profit, date, and game type. Small but I'm used to seeing this and think it's relevant to see without running a report. The other issue is it's subscription based, $8/year in the US seems fair though.
My sessions show date, start time, and length of session. Yours don't?

-----

I'm still clueless about what to do with my comp dollars. I found out gift cards can actually be used for slot play but...turns out you can't buy gift cards with comp dollars. You can buy literally everything else they sell. But I guess they don't want people turning comp dollars that expire every 60 days into gift cards that don't expire. Man what a ripoff. Back to selling Oakleys for 40 cents on the dollar I guess.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 08:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cannabusto
Given your 529 hour sample, you're probably winning somewhere between $0 and $15 an hour, but it's still small enough that if you can generate an objective intuition about your skill set, then I'd rather trust that than the actual results.
Ahh that’s good to know!

I feel overall over my last 200 hour or so I kinda had an epiphany about value betting thinner and bet folding A LOT more in these low limit games so hopefully it helps me win rate more
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 09:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Including high hands and excluding bad beat jackpot seems reasonable.


This is what I do. It's not unrealistic to assume you're gonna get a FH+ every now and again and get a little extra cash. It's pretty unrealistic to assume you're ever going to get quads+ and run into quads+

Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d
I think this is the consensus for normal $100-$500 HH promos. My follow up question was where do you draw the line? And so far I like samo's suggestion of scaling larger promos by hours played since you are still paying for them, without blowing up small sample sizes by adding 250 hrs of profit into a 500 hr sample size for example.


I wouldn't draw the line at $ amount, I'd draw it at the feasibility to win. If you play 500 hours, you should probably win at least 1 high hand promo. You could probably play 5k hours and never win a bad beat table share
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
My sessions show date, start time, and length of session. Yours don't?
Wow no, what version do you have? I'm under Bankroll, in the session tab. The list of sessions only have Location, game type, date, and profit. I have to click each session to get additional details like play time, buy in, etc...
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
This is what I do. It's not unrealistic to assume you're gonna get a FH+ every now and again and get a little extra cash. It's pretty unrealistic to assume you're ever going to get quads+ and run into quads+

I wouldn't draw the line at $ amount, I'd draw it at the feasibility to win. If you play 500 hours, you should probably win at least 1 high hand promo. You could probably play 5k hours and never win a bad beat table share
So how many HH are feasible in 500 hours? What about a hard cap on promo add-ons based on the promo rake and hours played? If the promo rake is 4/hr then cap win rate promo earnings at 8/hr for example?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 09:52 PM
I hit 1 high hand in my first 3000 hours or so. Also knew a guy that would hit 4-5 every month they were offered. Like most things in poker, the variance involved can be hard to wrap your head around.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 10:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d
So how many HH are feasible in 500 hours? What about a hard cap on promo add-ons based on the promo rake and hours played? If the promo rake is 4/hr then cap win rate promo earnings at 8/hr for example?
After about 4000ish hours, Ive hit a high hand every 84 hours. Its worked out to $4.02/hr in high hand money (after 7-10% tips that I give on HH money). My guess is Ive probably broken even in high hand promos.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 10:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
After about 4000ish hours, Ive hit a high hand every 84 hours. Its worked out to $4.02/hr in high hand money (after 7-10% tips that I give on HH money). My guess is Ive probably broken even in high hand promos.


I would postulate that playing daytime hours would result in more high hands due to less active tables
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 10:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
I would postulate that playing daytime hours would result in more high hands due to less active tables
Possibly, but you still have to hit Aces full or better to even qualify where I play.

Do you mean I have a better chance of hitting a high hand because I get to play more hands due to the games being less aggro in general or that when I hit a high hand that qualifies, I have less of a chance of it being beaten since there's less tables running? Or both?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 10:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Possibly, but you still have to hit Aces full or better to even qualify where I play.



Do you mean I have a better chance of hitting a high hand because I get to play more hands due to the games being less aggro in general or that when I hit a high hand that qualifies, I have less of a chance of it being beaten since there's less tables running? Or both?


The latter. More tables running = more overall hands being seen and hour in the room = higher chance of bigger hands being hit.

The former could also come into play though.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 10:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
The latter. More tables running = more overall hands being seen and hour in the room = higher chance of bigger hands being hit.

The former could also come into play though.
You are probably correct.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 11:28 PM
I'm in the camp that adds HHs and hot-seats to my win rate, but not a BB jackpot that isn't even a lock to be a once in a lifetime event. My main room did away with the BB, but runs high hand promos regularly. Most of them are in the $200-$500 range, so over a large sample size they shouldn't affect your hourly that much anyways. The room I play in actually takes $2 for the promo fund at $20 (once OTF). So when you're paying into that fund at a rate of $2 for pretty much every pot you drag over 1000+ hrs in a given year, you're often not even gong be "promo 0EV" at the end of a year when you balance the HHs you've hit against what you've paid into the fund, so I have no problem adding the ones you do hit to your hourly rate.

I didn't play nearly as much then, but I probably logged about 1k hours combined in '15-'16 and hit zero HHs and only $300 in hot seats over those two years. Obviously I contributed a lot more to the fund over that time period than I took out of it.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 11:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
My sessions show date, start time, and length of session. Yours don't?

-----

I'm still clueless about what to do with my comp dollars. I found out gift cards can actually be used for slot play but...turns out you can't buy gift cards with comp dollars. You can buy literally everything else they sell. But I guess they don't want people turning comp dollars that expire every 60 days into gift cards that don't expire. Man what a ripoff. Back to selling Oakleys for 40 cents on the dollar I guess.
There are several good to great restaurants at THR. Take a date out for a wonderful boondoggle meal 1x per month...ball out...then ball her. EZ game
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
07-16-2018 , 11:43 PM
"...I wouldn't draw the line at $ amount, I'd draw it at the feasibility to win. If you play 500 hours, you should probably win at least 1 high hand promo. You could probably play 5k hours and never win a bad beat table share..."

Or you could play 1400 hours and win three plus the high end of another one.

((personal experience, your mileage may vary)
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote

      
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