Yep.

I am able to sit in any public game east of the mississippi...and its not because I'm good at poker.

A clueless NL noob reaches 4000 hours of live 1/3 NL:





GitiswhatitisG

Very solid GG, congrats


I would recommend against playing poker for a living, it's just a very rough life. I do pretty solid at poker (60/hour over last 1k hours, running hot but 40/hour seems very doable) and as I've gotten older, having a steady job just keeps getting more and more nice. Poker makes a great side hustle and a pretty ****ty full time gig

Surely exaggerating a bit? Hate to bring this argument back but by that logic you would massacre 1/3 for roughly the same or even more cause the skill level is the same if it's the lowest game spread and the effective rake is less. You'll make more money with lower variance at 1/3.

Sick results GG. Especially that 30k heater in the middle. Nit is right apparently. So you had four-3k ish downswings? What about break even stretches?



My graph since May 2017. Vegas sure was better last year. Downswing isn't getting worse but almost a 200 hour break even stretch during the time of year where games are supposed to be amazing is annoying to say the least.

I guess I doomswitched myself by posting my graph at around hour 900. Maybe I'll un-doomswitch myself by posting it again.

I had two identical-to-the-dollar biggest downswings of $2855 (if memory serves, too lazy to look it up to confirm). Third biggest was around $2400 (if I recall correctly, again lazy). Not sure I've had another one over $2000 but it's possible I'm misremembering.

Breakeven stretch wise, both biggest downswings took me on about 200 hour breakeven stretches. Also had a decent breakeven stretch for probably more than that in 2012 before my incredible run good stretch.

ETA: Also, very nice results Rat!

Gmightbeinmiddleoflifetimebreakevenstretch,lol,who knowsG

To do list:
[ ] - Make 25k / yr on the side playing poker.

Nice runs GG and LRR.

"On the side" = 20 hrs/week, so either 2 long sessions on Saturday/Sunday or 3 shorter sessions Fri through Sunday, aka sacrificing your entire weekend.

And that's every single weekend of the year. If you work full time on top of that, I'm not sure when you'd actually be taking a break.

I would burn out in 3 months tops in this mode, maybe even quicker, and I don't even have a family.

what app is that gg?

It's Poker Journal.

Lots of assumptions there. My average session is probably just shy of 5 hours. I have no intentions on playing 20 hrs / week. Maybe on vacation?
10 hrs / wk * 10 BB/hr * 50 wks = 5,000 BB / yr
Solve for WR = $25,000 / yr => BB = 5
Guess who is logging hrs of 2/5 this year?

10 bb/hr is hard, imo.

GgoodluckG

Agreed, I'm on pace for the year but I'm sure it's mostly "run good". Next half of the year will be sobering. I'm still leaving tons of value on the table every week but the more I try to close that gap the more variance eats in. It's like a dance, along with some actual huge mis-steps...

LRR,
I wasnt exxagerating. Surely you dont expect to beat 2/5 fo 8BBs+ if youre beating 1/2 for 10BBs, do you? Theres a huge skill difference.

yes and also the games play very differently, at least where I play, so there are adjustments to be made that can take time to work through and be comfortable with.

I was beating 1/2 and 2/3 for well over 10bb an hour before I moved up, basically with a strat of 'bet big with top 3% hands pre otherwise see cheap flops with speculative **** in late position and then go hard with 2 pair + post, know how to fold to aggression'.

That didn't even make me 4bb an hour when i moved up to 2/5 and 5/5 and I'd say it took me 2 years to change up my game properly...albeit I still make tons of mistakes every session

Well Mike it just doesn't make any sense then. Say you beat 2/5 for 8bb or you beat 1/3 for 13bb. Or you beat 2/5 for 5bb and you beat 1/3 for 8bb. Just doesn't make sense to play 2/5 unless you care way more about improving than about the money, which isn't the case for most people. That's probably why back home a lot of 2/5 regs stopped playing 2/5 and unfortunately started infesting the 1/3 games.

in those scenarios I would snap play the bigger game. I enjoy playing 'good' poker against better players - I like winning money and wouldn't play if I was a dog in the game, but improving as a player and being able to play/compete/win against better villains is a part of the mix.

maybe it's different if you're just doing it to pay the bills but even in that scenario, unless you're way underrolled, wouldn't the ami be to improve to the point where you could beat the bigger game for ore $$

I agree completely. However, Im talking about win rates when you first move up. If you are good enough to destroy 1/2 or 1/3, even though your win rate when you move up will drop quite a bit (possibly to the same absolute dollar figure), you should also be good enough to make adjustments after some time and start raising your 2/5 win rate and eventually be making quite a bit more money hourly.

Even though the skill jump from 1/2 to 2/5 is significant, the rake is also significantly better.

as a dnegs fan, I prefer higher rake

I'm not laying out a spreadsheet of my expenses but it's not that complicated. 4 months life roll would have run out mid November. In late November I'm hospitalized.

So at this point I have half a month's living expenses plus hospital bills up to 25k (that I got reduced but still left with several thousand in bills plus expensive prescriptions I must take for two months). This money has to come out of my bankroll since my liferoll is gone. But my bankroll is around 20k at this point so suppose I take the expenses out. Fast forward to early January when my downswing ended. At this point I have a couple thousand more in expenses that have to be subtracted from the bankroll. And I went on a 10kish downswing.

I haven't worked out the exact numbers since it's a hypothetical but this scenario leaves me busto or extremely close. And if my hospital bills had not been reduced it's busto period.

And I did move down to 1/2 to grind my roll back but that would not have been possible if I hadn't saved far more than 4 months living expenses. And I know you said 4 to 6 mo tha and it's possible I might have been fine with 6 but I would not have been able to move up to 2/5 again and could have been stuck making 20 dollars an hour at 1/2 forever.

Just saying, stuff happens and most people going pro do not have health insurance or social security or any income besides what they have saved so better to err on the safe side so you're not one minor disaster away from busting. I didn't even have any operations. Can't imagine my bill if I had required my lungs drained or cardiac surgery.

Your main income may be poker but you have other income and benefits like health insurance from your former job, right? Not like that for young guys like me doing this.

I get what youre saying but you're talking about a perfect storm. A bad downswing at the same time as you get hospitalized. Most people will never go thru something like that. Kudos for saving a years expenses. Thats awesome and something most people will never have the discipline to do. I'm just saying 4-6 months will work for most people in most situations and its what most financial planners would tell someone who is starting a new business or really for anyone. Anyone should have that money saved in case they get laid off.

(and BTW...if they dont reduce the bill, which they ALWAYS will...just dont pay it. Tell them you will pay $50 per month until its paid off. There's nothing they can do about it. In your case even after it got reduced I wouldve paid $100-$200 per month and not the whole thing)

Actually Mike its not a perfect storm. Its called life. Life happens big time. This past january SPC broke her leg recreating. Luckily she has insurance. She ended up coming out of pocket 5k (deductible) which is no biggy. Also she had plenty saved so she wasnt worried about working so she was able to not sweat it. In 2006 I got severely unlucky and got into a life changing accident. I had insurance but it did not cover everything. I also lost over 2 years of my life recovering. Luckily I had banked a shtload of bux and came through it ok.

The point is gamboolin is tough - but going into it completely unprepared (like most do) - and not having insurance, or backup funds in case life gets in the way like it always does whether it is a broken leg, a car breaking down, or your kid needing braces - you need to have a bunch saved otherwise you are screwed.

Absolutely. No argument there at all. I was able to retire fairly young due to being a massive saver/investor all my life.

Saving for the future trumps all and sooner or later you're going to be very glad you saved.

Man it’s depressing af seeing you all talk about having to pay huge medical bills even with insurance. Is it the insurance company you’re forced to negotiate with or the hospitals?

wj294- spc had a 5k deductible...pretty straight foreword
when i got into my accident my insurance simply did not cover all of my stuff so I had to come out of pocket for the difference.