Nah I just play nitty or maybe have been blessed with low variance. For example AJo/KQo I open fold from EP without reads. But I just doomswitched myself by poasting a graph. Now on a record downswing for 1/2 and 1/3. It's not much but still feels bad losing to ******s.

This year, I've lost $11K in All in EV for 330 hrs. I only count mid-large pots allin before river.

Few examples -

1. AA vs QQ PFAI for 2k pot (-1.6K ev).
2. 22 vs KK on 662-J board allin on the turn, K on the river for a $4k pot(-3.6K ev).
3. 88 vs AA, 8xx-x allin on ther turn for 1.7K pot, A on the river.

I have a day job so that I can only play 60hrs/month, this makes me feel the run bad will never end.

That's pretty disgusting. Is that 2/5 or 5/10?

I count every All in pot no matter how big or small. I would've thought after almost 4000 hours it would even out but apparently the long term can take a very long time.

I also tell Mike this when he does his all-in EV calcs, but these don't tell the whole story of how well or bad you're running (only part of the story).

For example, you got AA vs QQ. That's running well.

For example, how many times were you able to get the money in as a massive fave against a fish (as opposed to a solid player). Again, that's running well.

And one of the few things I confirmed from my setmining project: sets lose at a decent clip (about 20% of the sets I saw tabled lost the hand), and of course when you lose with a set you typically lose your stack (and this isn't factored into the overall profitability of setmining nearly enough, imo). Heck, even flopping a set against an overpair you'll still lose by the river about 10% of the time (counting the times he oversets you by then or runner runners a flush/straight). Flopping a set doesn't entitle you to the pot.

Gall-inEVisonlypartofthestoryofhowyou'rerunningG

Most are 2-5, but the 22 vs KK $4K pot is 5/10 with $25 straddle.

Honestly, I can feel my game has been improved alot during a quit long period of play bad/run bad.

Sorry, I might not really get your point, did you mean, for instance, I got AA vs QQ is running good, just if you lose, for this time, you run under EV?

The point is if you got AA vs. KK ten times in one session and lost 3/10 instead of 2/10 you’d be saying “gosh how bad do I run to lose 3/10 times there” rather than recognizing how insanely hot you are running to even be in that position.

That’s why I laugh whenever mike brings up his All-In EV nonsense, ignoring the irony that for someone who claims not to understand poker math he thinks he can calculate that number even if he can’t see his opponent’s cards and certainly doesn’t know what his range is in that spot (arguably more important).

Exactly, you are correct on this one. The one you mentioned isnt the only flaw with those calcs either, but the principle you explained is probably the most important one.

I've explained this many times to Mike in his thread. But so long as he's cool with recognizing it's not the be-all end-all measure of how he's running, and so long as it helps him weather the storm (whatever floats your boat, imo), then probably nothing wrong with it. Although it is also eerily similar to what M did and by the sounds of it he doesn't even pokr any more.

GgoodluckG

Thread title should be changed to *** Official Jealous Haters of Mike Thread ***

I can understand your point, I don't see myself 100% agree with it.

For instance,

I played a 4.5 hours session maybe a month ago, I have AA 3 times in 2-5 table.

First 2, I raise preflop for $20, everyone fold, and I make $7 each.

The 3rd time, I straddle utg with AAh, fold all the way to sb raise to 35 (with only 400ish stack), bb fold, I just call. Flop J97hh, he bet 40, I call. Turn 4o, he bet 100, I push him allin, he call with his last $250 more. River is 8, he shows KTo river a straight.

I had AA 3 times in less than 150 hands for the entire session, this is really run well, but really won the minimum, and lost the max for all my AA. I don't see myself make any bad decision unless result oriented. How do you think about this session, do I run well or bad?

Never in my life have I had a poker session where I thought "I run bad" or "I ran bad". If this is really what you is going through your mind then you are thinking about the wrong things.

Not to derail thread, but your flat in a folded-to-the-SB-vs-Straddle situation is pretty arguable.

The point is there is *much* more to running good vs running bad than all-in EV calcs (plus whether you can even do a very good job of doing all-in EV calcs if you don't see your opponents hand in the cases you win).

And to be clear, I'm not hating on Mike for doing this. If it helps him mentally get thru the tough times then I don't see it as being a bad thing to do; whatever works (and it's different for everyone).

GcluelessrungoodnoobG

Lol sure thing

Thanks for taking time to respond.

Am a winner from 2010-2015 at all stakes from .10/.25-50/100. Don’t think I’m that competitive in today’s online atmosphere as I haven’t worked with PiO. But from what I’ve seen I have a significant edge in the live games I play.

It makes me wonder what kind of winrates are possible bc I don’t see too many people who have thought about the game that deeply, even regs who I assume win. That being said I’ve definitely made mistakes (and still make them) because of not adjusting to live play correctly or by over-adjusting.

I will report back in here when I have more hours

Never have I said I dont understand poker math. Ive said I don't rely on it robotically some people do and play a lot more by feel than most. Im not a math genius but I can calculate outs based on most likely ranges.

Ive also kept track for a while and saw my villian's actual cards in 85% of All in pots. I either lost and saw them, they are the one who went all in and had to show first, or they showed when didnt have it. When I dont see their cards the other 15% of the time, its not too hard to figure out how many outs they had with an obvious +/- factor that doesnt change the overall math that much.

If I give them an extra 2 outs one time and 3 few outs one time its gonna even out and not affect the overall total that much when its only 15% of the time that I'm estimating.

When I state my All in EV total its obviously not exact but I bet the margin of error is in the 2-4% range.

Johnny, you tried to play pro and failed. You obviously have some deep seeded hate for those of us who didnt fail. Get over it, dude.

there were two crushers in my 5/5 game who were beating the game by that or a little more - can't remember exactly what they told me. most people in here don't believe them/me but I definitely do. they destroyed the game and have gone on to be dominant pros at very high stakes (mainly PLO, thankfully so I don't ever play against them)

I'm sure your fundamentals are at least as strong as theirs if you were beating that high online, so it's just about whether you can develop the right exploitative strategy for different villains and if you can adapt to the pace and idiosyncracies of the live environment and stay away from all the temptations of various kinds you'll encounter

Mike, it sounds like you do a bunch of stat tracking at the table (not only from keeping track of all-in EVs but also your win/loss of all hands if I'm not mistaken). Do you find that taxing / mentally exhausting / difficult (especially if caught up in table conversations or the next hand or whatever)? I've done just a little bit of stat tracking at the table and find it really takes a toll mentally, and I'm glad when my little stat collecting projects are over.

GgoodluckG

I dont find it hard at all. I probably play 23% or so of my hands. That means I fold 77%. My room is reg infested so I dont need to watch every hand to get reads. I have plenty of down time to track stuff.

The only tracking Ive found tiring is when I was tracking my VPIP and raise%. I havent done that in a while.

Mike that is hilarious considering my primary income is still derived from poker and has been for 27 months now.

In spirit with the new thread title and my own contrarian nature, I must point out I seem to recall doing a LOT of poker math in your PGC thread that you didn't remotely understand. Nothing wrong with that, I don't think you really need to understand poker math that well to crush LLSNL, but realistically you probably comprehend like 10% of poker math.

-JealousHaterOfMike/MathBot

Warning to all. Please re-read the posting rules that you agreed to when you came in to this thread.

just popped in to lurk. it's hot in here :P

Anyone have advice on pasting an Excel graph (picture)?

Print screen (or windows sniping tool) crop. Save to Imgur.