I consider standard deviation to be a highly unreliable statistic.

First, at least one of the popular apps does not calculate it correctly. I don't recall which one, but it's been brought up in this thread multiple times.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, data collection methods have potential to be heavily biased. For example, if a particular player prefers to leave when he is near his EV, he will have a calculated standard deviation significantly lower than his actual standard deviation since he will observe many "low variance" sessions. If another player implements a stop loss and stop win of 2 buyins, his calculated standard deviation may be higher than the true value since he has more observed high variance sessions.

There is a formula for calculating standard deviation from variable session lengths, but it only works if your quitting strategy is not influenced by your results or expectation at the table. This is very hard to do as a human unless you are very disciplined.

If you always play for a predetermined amount of time and stick to it then this formula should be pretty accurate.

This is the formula:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...88&postcount=4

Legend ty

I'm up about 12k at 1/2 & 1/3 in the past 600 hours. So that's crushing the game? I think they're right about me moving up stakes before I sustain a higher hourly rate. To me I don't think it matters the stakes because my mental mathematics are fundamentally sound. I feel like if I had started playing with a larger bankroll, rather than short buying and whatnot to start up, that I'd have a higher hourly rate. I also feel like my hourly rate would increase slightly if I relocated to Las Vegas. I think it's quite possible for me to beat the game at $35/hour over the next 200 hours.

Sure, move up.

What percent of those hours are at each stake? Assuming 50/50, that is about 8 bb/ per hour. That is a solid win rate, but not what I would consider crushing.

More importantly though, 600 hours is too small of a sample size.

What gives you the idea win rate would be better in Vegas?

If your bankrolled for it, by all means take shots in the next bigger game. Just don't count on 8/bb per hour over 600 hours guaranteeing similar results in the future.

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On standard deviations, last time we had a big discussion on them ITT, most winning players were in the 100bb/hr range, with some very successful players considerably higher, like around 200bb/hr. Meanwhile the only winning players with SDev under 75bb/hr were me and GG, both in the 50s. MikeStar, welcome to the club. IDK what it means, as GG is clearly considerably more tighter than I am, so it's not just a nit thing.

Also, for meale, if you search ITT, bip! gives directions on converting SDev/session into a decent estimate of SDev/hr. It involves square roots, not just a simple division by average session length, but it's way simpler than that link above.

Im not a math expert so I wont try to interpret what this means other than to say that if I could have the same win rate with a 55BB/hr StnDev or a 125BB/hr StvDev. its pretty obvious which one I would prefer.

Lower StnDev means smaller swings and less big losing streaks. It would be interesting to see peoples StnDev/Winrate.

Of course its also possible that I could increase my win rate by pushing smaller edges which would also cause a higher StnDev but if my win rate was higher it would probably be worth it. Personally I think I would just increase my variance with no increase in win rate, but I could easily be wrong.

@jamesmccabe, where are you located now? For most of the US, LLSNL games are softer outside of Vegas, as grinders almost all move to Vegas, not to Iowa, or wherever. As long as the economy is big enough to always have a game, and the player pool is big enough that you're not likely to have enough regs figure out your game to kill your action, I'd stay away from Vegas, if I were you.

Dead fish PM'd me asking what my sd was. I use poker income pro. I always check the time b4 I start and when my session is over I simply click add a completed session. I always have my buy in as zero. If I win money (950 for example) I will put 950 in the cashed out part. If I lose money (950 for example). I will put 950 in the buy in portion and zero for cashed out.

I personally do not give a rats ass about my sd - and did not purchase this product for that function. But I am sure this is why it gives me the obscenely low SD of 176$/hr

https://imgur.com/a/ru03m
Unfortunately I have only logged 285 hours so far (in the past 3 months) at the rate of 17bb/hr. I wanted to wait until I got to 500 hours to post, but whatever happy new year. Looking to log 2k hours in 2018. Not sure if/when I’ll be moving up to 5/10. That game is kinda dead on the east coast anyway.

squid loves keepin' life simple

Me, well I pause it when I leave the table & I track my tips to keep a grip on my overhead. I also don't tip from stack. So, at the end of the session, I add the total tips to my buy-in amount before cashing out.

About 8 months ago, when I was still tipping from my stack, I had a session where I was doing well & was up a good bit & took a hit, but my stack was still above the max. Later I doubled up through a player who had me easily covered. Problem was I had tipped the dealers $16 already, so that was $16 I didn't win & now tipping the dealers cost me another $16 * [my equity long-term] which I think was around 68% going into the river.

Damn I'm cheap!

My Poker Income Pro had my standard deviation at over $500,000 per hour...I don't think that's accurate...

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You don't wear hoodie (up), shades and have Beats firmly plastered to your ears as well do you?

won’t play until next year so here are my final 2017 results. Gotta think that my highest volume day (Saturday, 159 hours) having a net of +$66 or $0.41/hr might be a problem. Fridays are second with 119 hours and a $22 hourly

A tale of two halves of the year. 90% at 2/5 NLHE the rest a mix of 1/2, 5T, and PLO/PLO8

I had a goal to play 200 hours this year, pretty much blew that away. I probably should play more 5/10, as my WR is 86bb/hr, obv sustainable, I guess they just respect my raises






Since I started taking poker more seriously in July 2016

Nice werk mang. That squid coaching dun paid off

Thanks mang. It's funny - his few brief, simple tidbits have had more of an impact than any other advice I've gotten.

Whats with all the realistic graphs itt? Dont you guys know how to shop a 90 degree line?

Prolly accurate if you are playing 1/3 plo imo

Here are my results from my PG&C thread.
https://gyazo.com/92083d452a740635e133b7470a6147c7
https://gyazo.com/a7035fe02e002418453251761b490e74

Wp mreps

Thanks

2017:
Recreated pretty hard.

Hours: 739
BBs won: 8390
11.3 bb/hr

Happy to see all of the success in this thread. Keep it up guys!

Hi,

I've been playing off and on for around 10 or 11 years. This year is by far the most hours I've played and also the 1st time I've kept any meaningful records.

I'd like some advice on how to improve my win rate for 2018.

I watch several vlogs on you tube (Neeme, Owen, Vaughan, Jaman, etc.) and like the way they explain their thinking in the hand. I also read some of the Live Low stakes NL threads.

I don't have anyone to talk to about hands or strategy. My girlfriend doesn't play poker.

I'm sure that I tip too much. I'll usually tip $1 even if I just win the blinds. I also will give the dealer $3, $4 or $5 when I win a $200-$300 pot and always tip $1 on average size pots.

I usually underestimate peoples stupidity when I attempt a bluff. I figure theres no way they can call and they still do.

I believe one leak I have is paying off players on the river when I only have a high pocket pair or over pair.

Most of my sessions start off with me being down $100 or $200 before grinding it back.

My results for 1-2 NL for 2017 are as follows.

Total win: $11,934.
Total hours: 1101.
BB/HR: 5.38
ROI: 19%

My average session length was around 6 hours long and most of my play was in the afternoon.

Thanks for any constructive comments.

The top 3 things that are biggest to my winrate are:

1) Always looking to table change if im on a stagnant table. This is by far the biggest difference maker.

2) Playing later. My winrate is 3x bigger from 6-10 as it is from before 6 and 5 times bigger between 10 and 2am. More bad players and normally good players who are playing subpar has an immense impact.

3) Not getting tricky. I learned to play in a group of dealers and solid poker players where tricky play was the norm. It took me ages to adjust to a normal game and the the difference was to stop being tricky. Players just don't think on as high a level as you give them credit for. Bet strong when you have the goods and get out of the way when an opponent is showing lots of strength.