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Yes.

20-25 buyins + living expenses seems okay if you're a decent winner.

up a lil under 14k in 512 hours at 1/3. Last November I played 2/5 1k buy in for 3.5 weeks straight pretty much, minimal sleep and won 31k in 285 hours. I took a month off of work for that. Not a huge sample, was definitly running well. I believe that these numbers are not sustainable but not far off in 250bb+ poker. My number was 50k including life expenses. I can keep these very low and grind super high hours. I am thinking my number should be more like 30k now, especially considering the minimal expenses I have and I can keep down if necessary.

Do you think it is worth setting an alarm every hour to track STD dev? I feel like you would need a huge sample. I also don't like to think to much in terms of cash per hour. The key to low stakes for me has been recognizing what kind of table I am at and adapting. You need to know when to turn it up and create some pots or just sit back and let the animals and cards to there thing. Then just making the best decision each hand/street and ignoring the results/variance.

Love your PGC, good stuff. 6 months living expenses? 3? 12?

Also I think there is a big difference if you have 25 buy ins for say 2/5 and living expenses for 6 months. And you plan on staying at 2/5 so as you profit your roll grows then having 15k and living expenses for 1/3 but everything over 15k goes to higher stakes.

Think it will be near unanimous opinion that your sample size is so small as to be meaningless.

Recording hourly results is a waste of time. You can use formula posted several times previously in the thread should be good enough. Not the be all and end all, just one of many data points to consider.

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small sample yes, meaningless no. Not to many guys I play with are up 45k in 800 hours or capable of it.

You asked for opinions. Congrats on the 800 hours.

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Playing 2000 hours of poker a year doesn't sound like retirement at all! That being said, if you are seriously retiring, I wouldn't consider doing so without at least a 7 figure net worth. The exact amount would depend on your age and your spending habits. You should probably consult a financial advisor.

Will probably keep job around until I clear 6 figures liquid.

Cheers 6 months imo is more than fine. I think in general people are pretty nitty when it comes to live BRM. And yeah as you say once you profit a bit, your bankroll pads itself out.

So basically you've just never ran all that bad. I've gotten coolered majorly for stacks for more buyins than that in one orbit on more than one occasion.

You were coolered for 6/10 hands for stacks at least 2 times? I find that hard to believe. I mean it's certainly possible, but hard to believe.

Of course you don't believe it, you've probably never been there. Most people that are currently in poker at any given time are there because they have ran exceedingly well above expectation.

I've also won 5+ stacks in one orbit on more than one occasion.

KatoKrazy is correct. Absurd runbad is certainly possible, and many players havent experienced it yet. If i am being honest, i probably havent experienced the absolute worst downswings myself yet, even though i have been through some stretches that makes your body almost numb and stunned when it happens.

I have been running 3 consecutive KK into AA in the same session, in the span of 2 hours.

I have flopped 5 sets in one session, having all of em lose to gut shots for stacks hitting on the turn/river- in the span of 3 hours.

I have been on the wrong end of set over set 3 times in a row in the same session, in the span of 3 hours.

That is just a couple of examples to illustrate how bad it can get if the doom switch really turns on. And if it happens, i can promise you the buyins keep flying and in many situations its simply nothing you can do.

I've spent the past 30 hrs losing 1000bb. The 30 hrs prior I won 1,400. I don't have such drastic swings often, but they happen because they can.

What constitutes a cooler to you? To me, it's two pair or better being beat no straight/noflush/unpaired board, or flush over flush, or set over set.

Chumbardo... have you ever seen a fish build a giant stack over the course of an hour just by getting lucky? If you've played more than 10 hrs, I'm sure you have. So if a fish can get that lucky in one session, you sure as hell can and will get that unlucky in a session as well.

I dunno man 6 buy ins in one orbit? I posted some br management questions recently, id love to hear your opinion on live BRM for going pro.

I get that. Certainly. but that's different from losing 6 buy-ins in one orbit. I'd wager it's more likely for you to get a bad beat jackpot then to get coolered 6 times in one orbit. And he said that's happened more than one time. Usually fish getting lucky is them donking their stack in with a gutshot, some kind of draw, or two pair draw multiple times - spots where they had at least 18% equity. Hell, the chances of getting a pair and hitting a set is .7%, and the chances of getting set over set is at a 10 handed table is about .028%. Which is roughly 7/25000. Again, I don't know what his definition of a cooler is, but I can easily fold aces to aggression on the flop and don't get stacked when he hits his set. To me, a cooler is a hand where it's mandatory that you get it in. Again, it's certainly possible he's in the top .1% of run bad. But in my experience, poker players tend to exaggerate these kinds of things.

I've lost more than 6 buy-ins in one hand. LMAO @ needing an entire orbit to do that.

I mean I've lost 9 buy-ins in a hand. But that's different from re-buying, getting coolered, rebuying, getting coolered again, then repeat for 6 hands. Well with 3 or 4 breaks in between, but still.

Me too, but that isnt what we are talking about. Getting stacked 6x in one orbit is nuts.

The original poster said he never had a $3k downswing. If you've lost $3k in a hand, then you've had a $3k downswing.

Not really... Hard to quantify that as a downswing if you still win money that session. Your giraffe still goes up.