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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

09-25-2017 , 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by soxfan43
4Timmy, what is your biggest stack in the $2/5 $500 max game?
I think around $7500... it's by no means the biggest at Winstar as people back before Black Friday were able to build much bigger stacks since the games were a lot softer before all the internet players like me started coming to the casino.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2017 , 02:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
4timmy, how would you describe your game (what makes it unique) in a few sentences.

Do you 3b more pre, barrel more post? Overbet? Or more passive? Open limp, flat call more? Etc.
I don't have a style, but play based on observation of the table and players. If the table is loose, I tighten up and vice versa. If a player is on tilt, I try to get into more pots with them. If a player is tight, I barrel and bluff more. If a player is loose, I trap more.

I'm rarely on my phone or watching media (I sometimes read at the table), because I'm always trying to observe the table and how people are playing for the session and play off of them.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2017 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
You've put a decent number of hours at 5/T this year. Was that at Winstar or in underground games? Small sample size but you've made nearly as much playing 5/T as you've made playing 2/5 this year.
Most of my 5/10 are underground games on weeknights. I play 2/5 at Winstar mainly on the weekends now and plan to play a 20hrs+ session each time, so I hate to have to leave a 5/10 and go to 2/5 and have to reset my game/mind if the game breaks, plus 2/5 is less intensive, therefore allowing me to put in more hours. Plus I have to play tighter at 5/10 to account for the more regs and the 3betting, which makes the game less fun.

My 2/5 results should be much better (I think in the $50-55/hr) if I kept my sessions shorter to about 6-8hrs, but I'm willing to sacrifice some winrate and make it up in volume. I think it's still a net gain factoring less driving time, expenses, etc.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2017 , 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gangip
4timmy,

Dat work ethic! Nice job
Thanks. This year and maybe next year is probably the only time I'll dedicate this much time to poker moving forward. I still rather do business.

For example, I'm starting a blog right now (www.invariance.poker) and hopefully turn it into some brand for mental game/life poker or a mental disease research business as I'm a firm believer that poker can solve a lot of mental disabilities/disease.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2017 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Do you 3b more pre, barrel more post? Overbet? Or more passive? Open limp, flat call more? Etc.
I see you're still trying to validate the limp call strategy as the potential Holy Grail of crushing low stakes poker.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2017 , 03:46 PM
Ha, not exactly. I just wanted to lay out two extremes and see which side he leaned to. Most on this forum, and most of the strong winning players Ive seen, lean to more aggression.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2017 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Ha, not exactly. I just wanted to lay out two extremes and see which side he leaned to. Most on this forum, and most of the strong winning players Ive seen, lean to more aggression.
Rarely is limp/calling an optimal strategy unless you have specific reasons and reads, such as you expect an aggressive player behind you to 3bet and you do not want to play a bloated pot with a marginal hand that you want to see a flop with, or you want to disguise and trap with a strong hand.

Other than that, the saying still holds: "To the aggressor goes the pot"
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-26-2017 , 12:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4timmy
Hi guys... just randomly ran into this thread and figure I'd jump in to contribute. Feel free to ask me any questions.

I was a former Pokerstars SNE, and now play mainly at Winstar casino and underground Dallas games. I play mainly the 2/5 games because I'm an entrepreneur at heart, so I've never really tried to build a roll to move up because I rather invest most of my money on ideas. For a while, my bankroll never got past $5000 and I was able to make a living playing 2/5 with it while being the sole breadwinner for my family and putting my daughter through Montessori school.

I recently went busto in 2015 from the vapor business (long story) and at my lowest point in May of 2015, I was $50k in debt to friends & family from doing business, tax issues with IRS, have pending felony charges for organized crime & money laundering, and $600 cash in my hand. Luckily, I've been able to turn things around with that $600...

This year, I made the commitment to drop all ideas and businesses, and just focus on playing as much poker as I can to get out of debt and get my life back on track. My goal was 2500hrs this year. I should reach my goal, be out of debt, and have a real poker bankroll by the end of this year. (as a side note, I've recently deposited some money on Global Poker and may be putting in the rest of my time this year online instead of Live as I've been beating the 1/2 there for $5000 over 14k hands so far... too lazy to calculate BB/100)

Here are my results... one key note is that I recently went on a 20k downswing from late August to now (September) playing high stakes PLO (2/5/25 straddle), which impacted my data dramatically, I went from:

~$70/hr to current hourly
~12+ BB/hr to current
66% cash rate to current

This year's giraffe so far:


Current up to date data:


Games I play:


Hours/Months/Days I play:


And finally, some motivational stacks... The game is 2/5 with a capped Buyin of $500:





Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-26-2017 , 08:46 AM
Dont take this as me dissing you, because your results are phenomenal and you are obviously very very good. However, Ive played poker all over the country and Winstar is IMO the softest room in the Country. I lived in Dallas for most of my life and have extensive playing time at Winstar.

Again, excellent results no matter how soft the room is. Whats the most amazing is the amount of hours you put in. Sheesh!
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-26-2017 , 09:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Dont take this as me dissing you, because your results are phenomenal and you are obviously very very good. However, Ive played poker all over the country and Winstar is IMO the softest room in the Country. I lived in Dallas for most of my life and have extensive playing time at Winstar.

Again, excellent results no matter how soft the room is. Whats the most amazing is the amount of hours you put in. Sheesh!
When was it that you played a significant number of hours at Winstar?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-26-2017 , 09:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Dont take this as me dissing you, because your results are phenomenal and you are obviously very very good. However, Ive played poker all over the country and Winstar is IMO the softest room in the Country. I lived in Dallas for most of my life and have extensive playing time at Winstar.

Again, excellent results no matter how soft the room is. Whats the most amazing is the amount of hours you put in. Sheesh!
where's your pcg update?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-26-2017 , 09:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
When was it that you played a significant number of hours at Winstar?
I moved away from Dallas in mid 2015. I lived there most of my adult life and played there a lot from the time it opened. When I say I played "a lot" it was nothing like the number of hours I play now because I was working full time. IMO I'm light years better than I was back then since I play so much now and I still had a win rate of about around $35/hr at 2/5 at Winstar. There were no poker apps back then (at least I didnt know about any) so my records are not detailed. I just kept track of my hours and total amount won in the notes on my phone. I'm going off of memory but i know I was mid $30s

I was in Dallas a couple months ago and played 2/5 at Winstar and was shocked at how soft it was compared to my main room here in S. Florida. Maybe it was just my table, but the I felt like it was 2006 again.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-26-2017 , 10:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie
where's your pcg update?
I kind of lost interest in updating it as I was on vacation for 2 1/2 weeks. My wife and I went on a road trip of the New England area and up into Canada. The trip had been planned for months, but we were lucky enough to be in Montreal when the hurricane hit.

I did play at 4 different rooms along the way so I guess Ill do an update to it soon.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-29-2017 , 01:56 PM
Retiring as soon as I feel I have enough bankroll to play 1/3nl 500 buy in without any risk of ruin. Lets say i'm winning ~$20/hr and capable of playing 2000-3000 hrs a yr after putting work to the side. How much of a bankroll do I need? Whatever number I come up with, everything in profit over that number will go to living expenses and 2/5 shots...
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-29-2017 , 02:49 PM
Good luck playing 3000 hours of 1/3 and not wanting to kill yourself
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-29-2017 , 02:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Good luck playing 3000 hours of 1/3 and not wanting to kill yourself
It wont be much 1/3. just always want to be able to fall back to 1/3. A lot of hrs wont ever be a problem.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-29-2017 , 03:06 PM
I get in about 500 hours a year pretty consistently as a regular degen at $1/2 and $1/3 and now an annoyingly common ($1/2 NLHE )to ($1/2 NLHE + $1/2 w/ $5 bring in RxR) to ($1/2/5bring PLO) game (which I hate). If I tried to play 3000 hours in a year I'd definitely want to kill myself, or I'd die of second hand smoke + ****ty casino coffee.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-29-2017 , 03:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CHICKSDIGLONGBALL
Retiring as soon as I feel I have enough bankroll to play 1/3nl 500 buy in without any risk of ruin. Lets say i'm winning ~$20/hr and capable of playing 2000-3000 hrs a yr after putting work to the side. How much of a bankroll do I need? Whatever number I come up with, everything in profit over that number will go to living expenses and 2/5 shots...
You should be using your own data to answer these questions. How many hours of personal history do you have? What is your bb per hour? Standard deviation? Longest break even stretch? Biggest down swing?

It is not a good idea to use anyone else's data and experiences to answer these questions for yourself. Use your own data and play around with a risk of ruin calculator.

But since you asked, I'll give my 2 cents..

I recently posted just shy of 2,500 hours mixed between 1/2 and 1/3 from playing as a serious weekend rec with great daytime career. Over that time I've had I think $2k downswings about 4 times and break even stretches of 100 hours more often than I'd like. Overall solid winning numbers though.

Based on that, I'd go with $20k bankroll plus at least 6 months of living expenses.

Live low stakes is awesome as easy second income. Think it would suck if it was my only source of revenue.

Sent from my SM-G955U1 using Tapatalk
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-29-2017 , 03:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead
You should be using your own data to answer these questions. How many hours of personal history do you have? What is your bb per hour? Standard deviation? Longest break even stretch? Biggest down swing?

It is not a good idea to use anyone else's data and experiences to answer these questions for yourself. Use your own data and play around with a risk of ruin calculator.

But since you asked, I'll give my 2 cents..

I recently posted just shy of 2,500 hours mixed between 1/2 and 1/3 from playing as a serious weekend rec with great daytime career. Over that time I've had I think $2k downswings about 4 times and break even stretches of 100 hours more often than I'd like. Overall solid winning numbers though.

Based on that, I'd go with $20k bankroll plus at least 6 months of living expenses.

Live low stakes is awesome as easy second income. Think it would suck if it was my only source of revenue.

Sent from my SM-G955U1 using Tapatalk
I do all of that and have my own number in my head which caught a lot of heat and debate from friends i respect in poker. 2k downswing is only 4 buy ins in my game. Not bad, i'd bet my std dev is a lil higher then yours. Also how accurate can std dev be if we arent tracking our results each hour? What is your std dev and how is it tracked? I'd guess an app.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-29-2017 , 03:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CHICKSDIGLONGBALL
I do all of that and have my own number in my head which caught a lot of heat and debate from friends i respect in poker. 2k downswing is only 4 buy ins in my game. Not bad, i'd bet my std dev is a lil highed then yours. Also how accurate can std dev be if we arent tracking our results each hour?
The 1/3 game i play in is $500 cap. I always but on for max and top off during sessions every time I'm at $475 or less. Don't think I've ever had a $3k down swing.

If you read far enough back in this thread toy will see formula for calculating std, not as arcuate as recording stats every hour but it is close enough for this.

Since you've got your own number in your head, how does it compare with my unscientific seat of my pants opinion? I'm genuinely curious as part time poker will be retirement bonus money for me as well in the not too too distant future.

And what does your key data look like?

Sent from my SM-G955U1 using Tapatalk
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-29-2017 , 03:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CHICKSDIGLONGBALL
I do all of that and have my own number in my head which caught a lot of heat and debate from friends i respect in poker. 2k downswing is only 4 buy ins in my game. Not bad, i'd bet my std dev is a lil higher then yours. Also how accurate can std dev be if we arent tracking our results each hour? What is your std dev and how is it tracked? I'd guess an app.
Frankly, the std dev stuff is all bull****, imho, pretty much because it is assuming your game conditions are going to stay constant thru out (which they are very unlikely to). This is simply based on my own experience based on my results only, but after booking a very respectable winrate of x over my first 2000 hours I'm now ~400 hours from 4000 hours where I'll likely book a winrate of < x/2 over the second stint of 2000 hours. Course, this will be over ~8 years, but the point remains.

Bottom line: game conditions change. Expecting past results to be a somewhat reliable indicator (i.e. within a standard deviation) of what future results will be is kinda meh.

Gjustoneman'signorantopinionG
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-29-2017 , 03:56 PM
this **** getting harder all the time guys, why you want to play cards with bunch of old men and only make $20 a hour? jeez set the sights a little higher at least
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-29-2017 , 04:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Highroller28
this **** getting harder all the time guys, why you want to play cards with bunch of old men and only make $20 a hour? jeez set the sights a little higher at least
Hey! What if you are a retired old man?

Sent from my SM-G955U1 using Tapatalk
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-29-2017 , 04:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Frankly, the std dev stuff is all bull****, imho, pretty much because it is assuming your game conditions are going to stay constant thru out (which they are very unlikely to). This is simply based on my own experience based on my results only, but after booking a very respectable winrate of x over my first 2000 hours I'm now ~400 hours from 4000 hours where I'll likely book a winrate of < x/2 over the second stint of 2000 hours. Course, this will be over ~8 years, but the point remains.

Bottom line: game conditions change. Expecting past results to be a somewhat reliable indicator (i.e. within a standard deviation) of what future results will be is kinda meh.

Gjustoneman'signorantopinionG
Variance/Std dev is very good to know/understand IMO... For me, it mostly helps me remember that if I've had a particularly good or bad 20-40 hours, even 100-150 hour run, that it's kinda meaningless. There are a couple friends and family members that I share my results with when they ask, but they are usually so fixated on the last 1 or 2 sessions or whatever... Like, "oh you made $250/hour! That's awesome." Ummm no, that's not how this works. Then I have to explain variance to them -- and I can even assert things like hey I could play thirty 5-hour sessions and have about this probability of being down money based on my results.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-29-2017 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Highroller28
this **** getting harder all the time guys, why you want to play cards with bunch of old men and only make $20 a hour? jeez set the sights a little higher at least
Some great intel guys. I'll ans questions later. As for this if you read my post the point if me having a number is so anything over that i'm playing higher. so if my number is say 50k. if i have 53k ill play 10/10 with 3k. So i'm never giving back to my 1/3 roll minus when there are no higher or better games running.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote

      
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