Let me add to your shock factor, winning players represent a wide range of std. There are downswongs and outliers that make 16bi look like child's play. Of coarse you rarely hear from those folks cuz they aren't much into posting on 2p2, they take up fishing or maybe a long walk into the dessert, its Usually only the cool kids lagging it up and sun running.



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I went on two distinct downswings of $6844 and $7364 already at 2/5. I'm still running at $42.40 overall over 1188.2 logged hours. Almost all of my sessions during those downswings were in a 120BB cap game.

Now imagine if they were together. Youd be fishing right now (and much happier imo)

A poster in another thread just posted a cone chart that I thought might tickle the fancy of some of you bankroll nerds/nits/aficionados

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...0&postcount=54

I guess that your "shock factor" depends a lot on how you view statistics and poker results in general. I've seen and experienced some pretty brutal down swings, and watched mouth breathing droolers sun-run for months on end while half the table just thinks that the guy is a genius.

If someone told me that a guy ran 4 standard deviations below expectation I'd probably just shrug and say "either he's actually a loser, or just unlucky".


Although maybe playing poker for so long has destroyed my ability to be shocked by *anything*.

Hey all, 3 questions...

1. Anybody have a real feel for how much winrates vary from weekdays vs. Fri/Sat (2/5 - 5/10 NL specifically)?

2. Any reads on how much winrates vary if you are an unknown 'good' player vs a known good player?

3. Thoughts on my 5/10 shot taking strategy below? Good or foolish?

Background

I am a rec player with a job that requires travel to a lot of various cities. Been playing poker regularly for ~10ish years, played online for a year before black friday and was a marginal winner at NL50/100 stakes.

About 3 years ago I moved from 1/2 to 2/5 live. I play about 30-35 times a year. Unfortunately I haven't tracked hours and detailed win stats, as I have previously measured success purely by bankroll size (which of course also serves as occasional petty cash to make the wife happy). In the last 3 years when moved to 2/5 I started keeping a mostly separate bankroll which went from 0 to $31K.

Question 1 Above
I have played 2/5 in probably 30 casinos in the last few years and am definitely now a winning 2/5 player, most of those sessions are weeknight sessions against probably a tougher crowd than a weekend.

Question 2 Above
At the same time, I recognize that I often sit down in a weeknight 2/5 game as an unknown 'rec looking' player, usually in a suit or some business attire. I am better than they usually give me credit for based on stereotype, and often I can get away with moves in a single session that wouldn't work long term against 2/5 pros. In fact I have won some big hands by giving off false 'yuppie businessman fish' tells in 1 or 2 key spots a night, which only works once but I am rarely around for more than 1 session in that city. I believe this inflated my winrate somewhat (question 2 above)



Question 3 Above
In the last 6 months I have been wanting to take some 5/10 shots. Here is approach on this, looking for suggestions or "you are foolish fish".

A) Only on Fri/Sat nights when I hopefully am not the only rec player
B) Only when the casino is spreading higher limits so I don't have the best of the best at my table
C) Generally I'll only play for a single 1k buyin; this is less about bankroll than I want poker to be fun and I'm not to the point where losing 2k+ in a session is 'normal'
D) If my 5/10 shot results swing to the net negative I'll stop for a while

I've only played 6 sessions (I know 0 samplesize so I don't pretend I am a winning 5/10 player) for a +$8,800 result. That included 1 +4k rungood session and one tough beat where I lost a $3000 pot as an 86% fav when money went in. Is it foolish to keep taking shots while in the net positive?

Does 5/T still count as low stakes? I'm guessing the question might be slightly above the heads of most on this forum, although there are probably some here who are knowledgeable on this.

G1/3NLforlifeG

Bringing 1 bullet sounds pretty silly. You're ganna play awful

I say go for it. You're a rec player, so if you take some losses it's not really a big deal. You're a winner at 2/5, and playing 5/10 will probably be more fun for a while given the higher stakes. I'm in a similar spot as you and think next time I'm at a casino where 5/10 looks good I'm going to play.

I think in general 5/T games have become a lot more grinder-heavy in the past couple of years. It would likely be more profitable for you to stay at 2/5. That being said, I like the general approach you would be taking...ie if you can find soft 5/T games then feel free to take shots.

However, the idea that you would only bring one buy-in is ****ing terrible. So you're gonna play 1 hand and then go home? There is no way you can play optimally like that especially in 5/T games where at times players are going to put you in tough spots when you have marginal holdings.

Don't listen to him.

Listen to him

If I could go back to being an unknown commodity in my regular room, I would in a heartbeat.

A single 5/10 buy-in, but if I lose it I'll go play a normal 2/5 session same night. I recognize that may make for some quick 5/10 shots. One of my 1k losses was actually on the first hand I sat down.

I called a $50 raise in the BB with QJ; Flop comes 9104x. We get it all in, villain had 10-9 for flopped 2 pair and I whiffed.

I just went and played 2/5.

Sorry my responses are to topics a week old or so, I'm not itt often enough:

@Joey913: article from June 2p2 mag, I think you'll find it helpful, it's about the mental blocks that keep us stuck as low-variance small winners: https://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/...ant-to-win.php

Re: building a live hands database: I did this for a few hundred hours, I found it very helpful. I only tracked VPIP hands, notes in phone notepad, manually transferred to Excel. Yes it is as time consuming as it sounds, though taking notes at the table can be done in 20 sec. The COTM on this topic "Off Table Analysis" is where I got my start on it. I don't do it anymore, but it was worth the effort when I switched from online to live.

What I was able to build, the only categories I had even close to much data on, were small pots vs big pots, flat calls, and certain hand types (monsters, Axs, etc). Some of my conclusions most of you already know, but sometimes we need to go through it and see it ourselves before we accept the conventional wisdom.

This is periodically discussed ITT. It's really hard to get a meaningful sample broken down by day of the week. But anecdotally and by the eye test, weekend games should be better. Maybe 30% better, maybe 50% or more, it'll depend on how well you adapt between a tighter game and a looser game really. An adaptive player will make more in general in both games, while a static player will see more of a difference.

Depends on how well you exploit random players vs. players you have history with (seriously, there are guys I can bluff off a set). You're probably more likely to get paid off by a random and have less FE in bluffing type spots, unless your locals think you're an aggrotard and those'll be flipped.

If we're talking straight ABC simple stuff, being unknown is good for you though.

I think your baseline strategy is OK. I'm not thrilled with the idea of sitting with a single BI for a game though. I'd rather sit down when I can peel off at least 2. If you get it in good and lose, and the table is juicy, you want to be able to stay.

Otherwise, I'd say to play the table selection more by ear. If the game *looks* good, and/or you know some of the other players from your $2/5 experience ... sit. If the game looks bad but your other criteria are still met ... play elsewhere.

I have a massive sample of 2/5 hours. Sadly my computer was stolen. However, Being old skewl I still have written documents but they are in storage. I will eventually retrieve them and put them into my phone. Here is my results from my last 2500 hours of 2/5

profit 135,453
$/hr 54.14
duration 2501 hrs
cashed 291/445

the graph is pretty much 45 degrees

the other 8k+ hrs or so with post bf results are the same

I just realized these are simply numbers I am poasting up here and I can be completely pulling them outta my ass. I am not. Tomorrow I will be gamboolin and well known llsnl poaster Death Cab For Tootie will be there. I will show him my phone and he can scroll through it and check out all my stats etc. He can then poast up here and verify my stuff.

addl info

biggest DS is about 7k iirc
longest b/e is approx 250 hrs

I am not putting in hardcore volume any more as I simply do not need to. Sold the house and have plenty o cabbage. Kid is in college and well funded. So I am more focused on recreatin. But the 10bb/hr thing is still plenty doable. I do this without cherrypicking hrs. I played from 11:45 am today (wed july5) till 5:30 pm. Obviously the opposite of prime hours

Its plenty doable for the top ~2% of players at these stakes. Other than that...forget it.

Hey mike - You are one hunnit percent correct in that statement. I was just skimming through the thread and saw what looked like people saying it aint possible. But I am proof it is. So is Rob Farha, goose, Gerald, and a bunch o others I know.

But you see this is kind of the point I think. You are a very good player with lots of history and experience and one of the few who "gets it" imo (which we both know certainly adds at least a bb to your wr) and even you are right at the cusp of the "standard" 10bb/hr.

Like basically I look at your results and feel ALOT better about my own bc I was originally thinking any dude with a 2p2 account was cruising along 2/5 at 10bb/hr but now when I see someone I really respect and know is a good player just slightly above it...it makes me realize it really is a huge achievement and that "average" is probably 5-7bb/hr.

imho

Also, only a 250hr be stretch over 8K hours? FU

If it doesn't affect the way you play then that's fine. Still, if you do well at 5/T and find the games quite beatable then I think your goal should be to eventually start bringing multiple bullets each session.

My previous advice stands though. I'm guessing 2/5 will be more profitable for you in most markets.

Not counting a Q or J (as you wouldnt be good if you hit one), you had 15 outs with 47 unknown cards.You were 53% vs 47% with two cards to come. I know we like to push value, but that is $1,000 coin flip.

Really it's a $2,000 coin flip.

Seems like a pretty easy spot to get it in if I am not scared of the money, and I can't be scared of the money if I am going to take 5/10 shots lol. I was pretty sure I was at worst a coin flip, and better than a coin flip against some
value holdings.

Maybe I don't get it in deeper, but 100BBs in a very deepstacked game seemed pretty standard.

Totally agree with this. My 2/5 edge realistically probably almost totally evaporates (or maybe even is negative) in 5/10. So hourly $win/rate would certainly be higher at 2/5 even with the stake difference.

That said, as a rec player who isn't playing for income (but isn't playing to lose personal non-bankroll money either) there is a part of me that wants to keep challenging my game at higher levels to both improve and frankly just test my skills.

Don't want to do the above in a way that is wildly money losing though!