looks like he hit a pretty nasty downswing at the 468 hour mark

LOL

$300 cap, but yeah, average stacks around 500-600 in later hours.

yeah that graph is sexy

Impressive results Donkey!

Ggoodluckthenext1000hoursG

It's sick. It's sickening. It's piss.

****ing disgusting.

I was reading on the High Stakes PLO forum that a lot of the 6max PLO regs/pros were reporting standard deviations of 150 bb/100 hands. This seems like it can't be right. I have 1000 hours of mostly 1/3 and my standard deviation is well over that. I can't believe online high stakes PLO would have less variance than live low stakes. I suppose they could have meant 150BB so 300bb?

Does anyone with live PLO experience have input on this? Also, would a live 2/5 PLO game that plays primarily without a straddle have a more comparable winrate to a 2/5 NLHE game or a 5/10 NLHE game for the best player at the table in either scenario?

It depends on the game but plo wr is certainly higher than the same stake NL. I think it's going to be a wide range. Like some 2/5 plos are under a 5/10NL and others are over.

i.e. if your wr is $45/hr at 2/5 NL and $90/hr in 5/10 NL (crushing, imo) then your 2/5 plo wr is prolly gonna be somewhere between $60/hr and $120/hr. The games just vary really widely and as you said variance is huge.

I've confirmed this with little experience after thinking about it.

The effect that 5~9 way flops has on stdev can't be exaggerated. Live will always be much (much) higher stdev than online.

Winrate thread makes this common mistake often:
Online stdev is in /100 hands
Live is in /hr
So they go with 25 hands per hour and...
multiply their stdev by 4x (which is wrong).

The correct equivalency is sqrt(4) = 2. So their 150bb/100 is 75bb/hr live.

Then the other differences come from straddles, stack depths, loose preflop play multiway, etc.

(Sorry if you are doing stdev right already... it just is a common mistake)

----
In terms of live WR discussions - don't base decisions on what other players do or claim, base game selection on how much is lost at the table. Structures (like "2/5 NL $500 cap") do not come with a WR. Donators determine your winrate.

So, if I play 30 hands an hour, it's square root of 3.333=1.825, correct?

I'm confident I'm calculating my standard deviation correctly. I'm using the methodology you taught me in this thread a while back. I know that live is higher variance, but what I don't understand is: the biggest downswing I've ever been on is 1000 bb. That has occurred twice over the ~1000 hours. I have always understood that PLO variance is insane live or online and 10 buyin downswings are common. So, I don't understand how my standard deviation could be higher than an online PLO reg's.

I have a very nasty loss rate on Fridays that I really can't account for. I also don't do as well as I think I should on Saturdays. My recent results by session are 4 wins and 16 losses on my last 20 Friday trips.

My guess is that I loosen up way too much in the crazier games. I also think that the crazier weekend games take longer to reach the "long run". Probably a combination of both. What do you guys think and do any of you have the same?


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This. And it's why people are unable to comprehend why live and online WR's have such large discrepancies.

Muilti-way pots and lots of donators. Infinite more people willing to donate at a casino where they have the luxury of sharing some drinks and laughter

Absolutely the crazier the game the longer it is to get to "long run". But you've probably got a couple of other leaks causing you problems in looser games.

Yup. This is why live games can be built around 1 or 2 donators.

Awesome results donkey. How long did it take you to get to 1k hrs?

Yeah my weekend winrate is a lower than my other days too. It's prob a combination of more pots going multi way and gambling it up too much with the recs

If this is directed at me, I average around 320 hrs/yr as a rec player. So a little over 3 years. And results aren't that great. This is across all 1-2, 1-3, & 2-5 NLHE and some old data when I primarily played 10-20 LHE. If I filtered the data to only NLHE, my Friday numbers would be even worse!

Weekends, especially Fridays probably have a lot more bad players (or maybe good players) and you're probably just outleveling yourself against them. Trying to make bluffs and moves they don't understand and thus won't work against them.
Or maybe there are more better players on Fridays who are just outplaying you, but I doubt that?

I never did well at 2/5 on the weekends. I recommend moving up to midstakes

Noise. You take 7 15k hand samples, one is likely to be negative.

The first and likeliest explanation for his results is variance.

I don't believe this for a minute.

I dont agree at all that your problem on Fridays is variance. A winning player should almost never be losing over 600 hours. I'll go out on a limb and say flat out NEVER. Lots of people write off every downswing and every problem they have to variance. Its easier to blame your problems on something you cant control than to solve the problem.

Your win rate on Sat and Sunday is also lower than the rest of the days of the week. That's a clear pattern. You probably lost several big hands on Fridays due to variance that made the problem much worse then Sat/Sun, but no way variance is the main problem.

We all know that the games on weekends are loose with more gambly recs. You need to make adjustments to your game against those players. The most obvious adjustment is to tighten up. Its not as fun so few players do it, but that's the answer in loose crazy games. Run over tight daytime games. Tighten up and wait for one or 2 big hands in loose games.

I dont believe it either. Not if you are a strong winning player. Also, this is not a 15K sample on Fridays. Where I play I get 40 hands per hour which would put his Fri sample at 25,800. Even if we use 25 hands per hour, which is absurdly low unless the dealers suck and they dont use shuffle machines, that still puts Fridays hands at over 16000.

Winning live players dont lose over that many hands without played badly.