Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomark
well i came in here for some advice on moving up but i guess my current winrate is probably related to the whole "cant beat 7 bb/hr" thing. Im currently sitting on $12k BR. Around 80-90% of my profit just goes back into my BR, i dont really need the money for anything (wife disagrees lol). Started really tryharding live and playing semi regularly (about 5 hours per week) beginning of 2016. Played mostly 1/2 or 1/3, 288 hours, $28.37/hr I also min cashed in 2/2 tourneys for $390 in profit lolz.
Accounting for just 1/2 and 1/3 im at $30.13/hr in 230 hours. At 2/5 im at $31.96/hr in 34 hours. remaining hours are $5.95/hr 23 hours at 4/8 and 8/16 limit. Its extremely likely the winrate is unsustainable, but i can at least be pretty confident i can beat the game at $15/hr.
So i had planned to move up to 2/5, and in fact I did play about 30 hours of 2/5 in vegas with success, but the local casino that opened is running $1/3 $500, which seems like it plays like a 2/5 game. The next level up is 2/5 $1k. Im sort of thinking with my BR and winrate, i should feel confident moving up (although ive been told 20 buyins which would be $20k BR)
The other thing that has deterred me from moving up is I have been demolishing the 1/3 game at the new casino. Only 52 hours, but im at $63.91/hr, and thats despite the game having an effective $7 rake (5+2 with no promos since it just opened). My one session at 2/5 the game seemed a good amount tougher, and im thinking maybe it makes sense, lots of players who havent ever really had a local casino and they are playing the lowest stakes of course, so maybe I should stay at 1/3 and vacuum up all the new player money until the 1/3 game isnt so soft.
Downside of that strategy is it delays my move up in stakes, and I feel like im at a point where im not learning much at 1/3.
So basically the question is...move up to 2/5/$1k?
Pros: theoretically higher achievable winrate. I semi have the BR for it. Learning(?). Long term maybe preps me for 5/10 if i do well at 2/5. Maybe the massive winrate at 1/3 new casino is either also available at 2/5, or just me reading too much into variance
Cons: At least in the 30 hours i played in vegas, i noticed i have a much worse feel for bet sizes that tend to get called vs folded, so id expect at least some loss of winrate from asjustments such as these in short term. Possibly missing out on epically free money at 1/3. Semi dont have the BR for it. Havent really played a whole lot at the $500 buyin level, so maybe moving to $1k after only about 90 hours at $500 buyin is a fast jump.
I see what you mean about not learning much at 1/3 (I am playing $1/$2 currently the past year with only a few shots at 2/5 and have hated it, but its been decent when I put in the volume and time) but you need to keep pummeling this game...even if you level off at $45 an hour, you do that for another 500 hours and instead of around $8000 in profit between the $2/$5 at ~$32 an hour and 1/2-1/3 mentioned at ~$30 an hour, you'll be up another $22,500 at 1/3 in just a few months...depending on what your starting roll was, taking shots at 2/5 and 5/T will be fine, you'll be more prepared once you move up and typically, in my humble opinion, we want to have around 6+ months of beating a game (I'd say $30-$35 an hour or better) at 160+ hours a month (round up to a thousand hours in six months), before permanently considering a move up to higher stakes, with applicable bankroll for those stakes. So, if your BR for 2/5 is 60K+, being only slightly conservative at 200BB buy-ins or 1K per buy-in, well, you are way more prepared for a full move up and also can always come down sometimes during the better moments at 1/3 to play it and not play the times when the very best regs are in the 2/5 games.