Im sure the $11/hr low end is just as unlikely as the $85/hr

There's a few more steps, IIRC. I don't remember the formula. If you've figured your approximate win rate, you don't necessarily need that kind of accuracy.

This is the about the only sensible way to do it if you're a real full time pro IMO. It's the same as owning and running a business...someone who knows what they are doing pays themselves a wage, they don't just raid the cash register every time they want to buy something.

there is no wrong or right way to do, there is a more structured way to go about it.

If you have terrible spending leaks, you need to structure yourself. And get a work on those spending leaks. Then you don't need to structure yourself so much.

I don't know about that though obviously that's what the math says. Vast majority of these hours are playing 1/2. Deep stack ($200 min and no max) but also heavily raked. I don't know if 85/hour would even be possible as a true win rate, whether by me or anyone else.

Fold pre

Hi guys, I have gotten back into poker in october and grew my BR to the point where I started taking 2/5 shots (at $5k)

The irony is that while I am doing well in soft 2/5 games (I am only playing once/twice a month when the game is soft), I have gone on a big downswing at my normal 1/2 stakes and am now even for the month.

have a $5k BR, up $1200 at 2/5 but down 1200 at 1/2, continue 2/5 and risk $$ or just ride out some bad variance at 1/2?

Further, the 2/5 game is really good as there is a huge tourney coming up, driving traffic to this room....

What do you think I should do?

PS. I have a day job that pays all the bills so the risk isn't not paying the rent or something

So you have no difference since your shot take? Why not keep shot taking, it's pretty aggressive for a weaker player. If you're very strong, it's not that aggressive.

Assuming you can beat the game, kepe playing 2/5.

Yeah, no difference since the shot take. I'm up about $80 for the month now, looking at my records to be exact - I am:

+$1250 at 2/5 (26 hours)
-1170 at 1/2 (14 hours)

Had a really bad session at 1/2 where i tilted off $600, so I think that is sticking in my head right now affecting my confidence.

Stay at $1/$2 until you get it back.

You're probably not game selecting $1/$2 enough as well.

If you have a day job, seems like you could take shots in 2/5 games if they're good and you feel like you're a winner in the game. Say you lose 4 buy ins and down to $3k, you could play 1/2 still and if necessary reload.

Basically, if you have the ability to reload and think you can at least break even at 2/5, you should play 2/5 if you'll enjoy it more. If you like 1/2 better you should play that.

When your risk of ruin is low you should be as agressive as possible assuming the risks are still +EV. (I.e. do you have a skill edge. )

if you are playing your normal poker game you should have 4 buyins per stake to lose per session and you should plan on losing 3-4 sessions in a row fairly often. If you can't stomach losing $5k then you're not rolled for 2/5. If you cant handle losing $3500 you're not rolled for 1/3 and if you can't lose $2k then dont play 1/2. all of the above swings are normal and happen regularly to winning players. I know a few 10bbhr winners and they all have had around 10buyin downswings. Be prepared and dont be upset when you lose $5k; its normal

This.

The 4 BI per session thing is very preference based. I tend to cap at around 3 BI because in a capped game I find it difficult to stay motivated when stuck 1500 with only 500 in front of me.

As for downswings, I am beating my 2/5 game for 15BB/HR over 400 hrs (obviously small sample size) and have suffered multiple 5k+ down swings, the worst being a week where I lost 7.5k. It's normal and especially if you play a LAG style your swings will be big and frequent.

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Thanks guys for the advice. The $$ doesn't matter to me, however going busto after grinding 1/2 for the last few months would be disheartening.

I am going to play 1/2 today and see how it goes.

If I play 2/5 on sat night I think I might do something like subsidize from my personal roll so that each full buyin is $250 from poker and $250 from my paycheck. It's completely mental as it's all my $$ but it would just mean having a more prolonged shot at 2/5 in case things go sour.

Sorry for your $7,5k downswing but it's good to know that is likely and you're still positive about the game.

Thanks for all the replies and advice!

hey znith, I was in the same position for several months last year (job, saved most of 1/2 winnings and had $5k+ in cash bankroll after several hundred hours of 10bb+/hr profit)

I decided to do the opposite of you and never shot take, I had $10k roll as a target for getting into 2/5. Guess where on the below graph my biggest regret is not giving it a shot?

Anyways, play good 2/5 games and see what happens because the abyss still exists at 1/2

That's looks like about -$7000 over 250 hrs or so? 35 buy ins? WOW!

Nice recovery.

Looks closer to $6500 in 110 hours to me. What a nightmare of a downswing if this is 1|2! And still not out of it yet. 100 hours to lose $6500, 500 to get it back hehe.

Just to confirm the session to session variability discussion, the width of your light blue line looks to be about $1-2k.I've seen this in my graphs, and others around here too.

Hi guys,
What does a 69 bb/100 mean in standard deviation? I sW it on my poker tracker software and I know my sample size is small but just curious what it means! Thanks!!

It means variance for you is rather low. GL replicating this in LLSNl though. :/

The hours sample size is, of course, meaningless.

However, if you are still capable of tilting off $600 in a 1/2 NL game then I probably wouldn't move up until I had that major leak under control.

Gbutifyou'rerolledandjustplayingforfun,whatever,do whateveryouwantG