This is true, but you can lower your variance in NL by play style. There is no significant way to lower variance in limit.

Variance fest compared to what? Short-handed games are much higher variance whether it be live or online.

Live Full ring has got to have the lowest variance of profitable gambling out there.

Yes, we need to make hands to win $, but part of our biggest edge is losing the minimum when we go card dead or when we are up against the top of our opponent's range. Patience and discipline will always be king.

After 11months, RP agrees with me on something

I dont play in Tampa, but anyway, why would I want to challenge Squid Face? Hes a beast and I have nothing against him.

There are at least two players in my room who have made more than this at 5/5 (700) over several years. They are properly top class poker players who crushed the 5/10/20 as well when it ran and then when that game died they destroyed the 5/5 again when that was the biggest hold em game in the room.

Fortunately, they have moved on to much very higher stakes PLO now but I definitely believe those guys were beating the game for at least $70 an hour over a sustainable period. PLO has destroyed the hold em games now and there isn't as much easy money on the table so I don't think 70-80 is do-able any more

Winning in one form of poker does not make you great at all forms of poker.

Something else to consider is tax. If you make 100k a year at 2/5, you're not walking away with 100k. Granted this is the same at any 100k salaried job. Now if you do the same in the UK or Australia for instance, you get to keep the extra 25k you pay to tax. This is a very big factor.

Imo if you're making 100k US minus the 25k US from tax, this gets close to cancelling out the lolrake in Australia. Also no tipping here.

Also to mention you could have an 80k EV year and very very easily clear 100k+. You could do this for 5 years straight and have the illusion of being a 100k EV player. Probably wouldn't ever know true WR.

But yeah, if you play 50-60 hours a week for 50 weeks a year, you can very easily (overstatement) net 100k playing 1/3 or 2/5 anywhere in the world. Unless you live on a cruise ship. Probably at 1/2 as well if it's a decent structure and plays like 1/3.

Pretty sure that's the same excuse most BE players use to rationalize why they're BE players.

Def agree with this.

Not to mention if you're a UK/AUS citizen you can travel to the U.S. and play in our same markets without having to pay any taxes.

Ugh I need to become a UK citizen, too bad you have to spend like 6 years there.

It's 4 years in Aus. Or you can marry somebody and do it in 2.5

Dang, have to actually consider that...

Though I think I'd much rather be in London

RP, cut it out. We agree again. This is getting weird now.

i find this discussion pretty interesting and have been following it, basically agree with meale's assessment providing one is able and willing to be in the casino during hours when others are having a life, pretty much exclusively

Yeah, would be nice to grind cash in Melbourne during Aussie Millions and then cash in Vegas during WSOP. Flights would prob be pretty -EV if you were UK based though.

My gameplan is to freeroll an Irish passport and consider living in London if my first year playing pro in Melbourne goes well.

Cost of living is way higher ofc but I think the reduction in rake from London compared to Melbourne is probably way over $30k a year.

Yeeeah, I guess plenty of people work Friday nights/weekends though. I'd do a form of rotating roster that would give me at least 1 Friday/Saturday night off per month so I can let loose. It's not particularly hard to put 50 hours in a week when you're essentially just sitting down all day. As long as you're balanced and healthy, and preferably some what of a social introvert who doesn't need to go out and get plastered twice weekly, you'll be fine.

If your goal is to play cash, leaving Melb or Syd to play in Vegas during wsop is ridiculous. Way softer in Aus

This is my results from 1-3 Live Cash. However, I really try and optimize for peak times, deep games, and straddled games.

Ill admit I play in one home game that is 1-3-10(mandatory and it is good game) but that is less than 5% of this.

Where I play,1-3 is only game offered. Late on weekends, I can lots of times table change to where I dont consider it a 1-3 game anymore. When 5,000 or more is on table and you can open to $25 or $3o and for sure get multiple callers, is this really 1-3 ?

Anyway, I also wanted to say that on the other side of the coin, I know I did noto have my A game during all of this time, I dont have it tracked but I estimate I would have made 10,000-20,000 more playing my absolute best throughout this time.

On the flip side, if you don't play those best hours, you would probably make 20k less or even more.

Kind of like how people think variance only means negative.

Yeah, I can agree with this. I play some other games that are bigger. PLO8 mostly. Some L08. So Im not going to use my time to sit in a 1-3 holdem game with 2,000 on table and no one straddling.

But I still find playing 1-3 worthwhile when the dynamics are as i previously desribed. My win rate playing bigger Omaha8 games is better but not by much. Im admittedly not near as experienced in these games yet. Also, playing the live 1-3 is more like printing money than playing bigger omaha games where you can make a lot but you can lose a lot.

Most of my daytime 2/5 games start with an avg of $3500 on the table and thats 10 handed so an avg stack of 70BBs (Ive counted a number of times when the table opened). Its very rare to see straddles during the daytime.

That 1/3 game that you mention isnt really worth your time has an avg stack of about 70BBs also. I only mention this to emphasize again the difference in win rates depending on when you play.

My win rate after dinner time or on weekends is 1.55 times my weekday daytime win rate. That's a huge difference.

wow very impressive - good stuff!

My results -

I only have accurate hourly since April, which is when I got a new phone. Since then, I've won $11,380 over 265 hours, for a win rate of $42.93/hour. Games are most 1/2 deep stack (I buy in for at least $300, and will buy in and rebuy more depending on who is at the table for how much) with some 1/3 and 2/5 mixed in. I've run remarkably good at the 2/5 tables when I play, as I've won $4,883 over 28 hours, for a $175/hour rate. Obviously running good when playing bigger stakes is great for the win rate with few hours (I'm a rec player). In my main game, (1/2 deepstack) I have almost 200 hours with a win rate of $29/hour.

Prior to April, I have about $2700 of winning in the prior 12 months, though no hourly due to phone issues. Prior to that my records require doing too much addition or moving to Excel, but I was generally winning a few thousand dollars a year playing about 200 hours/year of 1/2.

My general thoughts - I'm clearly running good though usually think I'm the best or second best player at most tables, and definitely the most comfortable playing deep stack. Had a bad stretch end of 2015 that I recall losing about $4k in 5 sessions, which was a bit tough to bounce back from. Feel like I've improved my game since then, especially in figuring out who to bluff and who to value bet, playing draws aggressively in the right spot and not getting stuck playing big pots with medium hands.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_x...dxYWwzSkU/view

Interesting take, imo.

GcluelessWRnoobG

+1

Gcongrats!G

It is ridiculously pessimistic since edges can be so huge in live poker.

We are playing the top 20% of hands, mostly in position, against opponents who play hand ranges as far down as the bottom 40% of hands. It doesn't take 100,000 hands to start to realize your true edge when we have such a strong card, skill, and positional advantage in the majority of hands we play in.