RP - we are all guessing here, I agree

Ultimately my question was aimed to debunk whether 2 big bets is possible as WR/hr.

There seems to be the notion that it is possible in higher stake, but not so in lower stake because the game is raked higher in proportion.

If we compare apple to apple, then WR is determined after consideration of rake and tip.

I suppose if it's possible to win $32/hr after rake and tip, then that player is actually winning at probably closer to $35.

So 4/8 would probably be around $13/hr or slightly less using similar assumption.

I have never seen 2BB / hr listed by any author of limit books FWIW...

Every authority on the subject that I have ever read says 1BB and they hint that 1.5BB may be achievable.

I think the source of 2BB is just confused people.. who mixed up bb and BB.

Pretty much what the thread said. I made decent money playing this year, but no where close to what he said. I'm defiantly doing better than most jobs pay but is this possible or is he a liar??

I don't really want to say what my year to date is but I don't think it's possible to make 100k a year playing 2/5...

Yeah. It's possible if you play good/run good.

You can make 100k a year playing $1/$2, generally nobody would ever make $100k in $1/$2.

Winrate depends on too much factors to say if you can beat a game for $100k a year.

You not only need good long hours, you need to run well, you need great tables, the ability to table select, good mental game, good rake structure, a stern tipping habit, and many more other good things going for you.

I would never put weight into somebody saying they made xxx a year, I put more weight into their play. Who gives a flying crap what somebody claims, especially if they are telling it to your face and even more so at a card table.

The majority and I mean right around 99% of players are not going to ever brag about a yearly win to your face online or live. Most of the time you'll find they are full of crap.

Put more weight behind play and less behind talk.

50 hours a week at $40 an hour is about $104k in a year. So yes possible.

I'm pretty certain I could do it at 1/3 if I played 60 hours a week. My hourly this year was high enough but I averaged 40 hours a week. I'm pretty certain I know a couple of guys who've cleared 100k playing 1/3. They play a ton and they crush.

Pretty sure my friend has a friend who made $200K in 2015 playing $2/$5 at Parx. On par for well over $100K this year, but not $200K.

I know most of the Parx 2/5 pros and I would be very surprised if that were true. Weekday games average 3-4 tables per night with ~2-3 full-time pros per table. Weekends average ~6-7 tables per night with 1-3 pros per table. Parx 2/5 has seen its hourly expectation go way down in the last 12 months and many of the 2/5 pros have started playing the 1/3 mid-week which is mediocre.

I guess anything is theoretically possible over a 1 year span if you are running +1 or +2 standard deviations above EV.

No, do not believe the random who told you he has made over $100k this year.

Yes, it is possible.

It is possible to make $100k/year at 2/5. Squid Face has stated that he makes that approx. every year and has not been challenged on it by others. Keep in mind that he treats it like a job. He's worked many years on his game and apparently plays pretty close to tilt free.

As to whether "this guy" is telling you the truth, I'd weigh how frequently I saw him in the room. Unless you are playing in a huge CA room, you should be able to recognize every regular at 2/5 and know when they are in the room. Is he there just about every time you're there or do you see him once in a while?

Next I'd look at his play. Since he's "making" more than you, he should be in your notes as a top player. Maybe you don't move when he is at the table, but you should feel like if the table isn't that good, he's likely the reason.

If he is a hard worker and you consider him as good or better than you are, then there is no harm in accepting his statement. However, most 2/5 players don't make nearly that much consistently. Even if he is telling you the truth, it may be just over the last 12 months and he was on an extended heater. Most likely, he's just blowing smoke.

The guy probably hit a BBJ for 90 dimes and made 10 playing 2/5. Boom 100K!

My personal opinion is that max win rate at 2/5 during the daytime is about $45/hr and if you play only at peak times its about $60/hr. I would say only 1% of players can do that. Probably only 2-3% can top $35-$40/hr.

If he made that much he is clearly one of the best players in your room. So is he one of the very best players in your room? If he is it should be very obvious to you.

what I've heard/seen from top end crushers is that the WRs MikeStarr quoted are doable. The volume is the difficult part. The other part is sample size. The crushers I know have those win rates over THOUSANDS of hours.

Someone can have a 10bb win rate and just be sun running. A lot can happen over 1k hours. Shoot, I'm gonna wind up at 450 hours or so this year. In my situation as a serious hobbyist, 1k hours is 2 years of play. A lot can change in an ecosystem in 2 years.

Doable but VERY rare. That's the key. If this guy really made $100K playing 2/5 in one year, it should be glowingly obvious to everyone that hes the best player there and that hes playing ALOT. Hes not wasting time playing tournaments twice a week, or taking lots of breaks. Hes grinding day in and day out.

Very rare Indeed. I'm talking the top 0.1%. Three players I'm thinking of don't play tournaments and don't tilt. The second factor is probably the biggest factor whether someone can long term achieve those results.

W/R ceiling

Great thing about poke is most people dont know what they dont know. So guessing max w/rs at a 2/5 game is kind of like guessing exactly how many angels you can balance on the head of a pin. If someone is doing something unconventional or bizarre to the rest of us are they a fish? or are they doing some next level sht? I dont know

I will say this - I am super lazy about table selection, and seat selection. Ya I will change tables but like I said I generally sit at a table and play my game

My last year in vegas after my kid graduated from highschool I committed to a vampire schedule and my win rate went through the roof.

I am bored to tears with poker and am having trouble logging hours. In the past I have banged out as many hours as anyone (peak number 2150 in 1 year) Last night was saturday...said screw it and didnt play. So it should be obvious that I am not selective of the "peak hours".my poker log shows almost a perfect balance of hours v days of the week. I also am generally outta the room before 12am again non peak

With as many hours as I have logged I think I have a decent grasp of run good v run bad and what that looks like. This year I have run very very badly in large pots where I have gotten the money in exceptionally good and my win rate is the lowest it has been in quite some time

it currently stands at 43.10 for the calender year

Sounds like you agree with me. You've played a ton of hours in the past but your peak was 2150. Its very very tough to get more than that in 1 year.

You play fairly random hours, however I would include 7P-midnight as peak hours. I keep track of peak vs non peak win rate and include anything after dinner or on weekends as peak hours. You are very good at poker. Your win rate is down but probably not a large amount and stands at $43.10. Very very few people are making more playing random hours.

If we put take your $43.10 and multiply times your peak number of hours we get $92,665. I realize you were probably higher than the $43.10 when you logged the 2150, but the point is that its very very difficult to hit $100K in one year at 2/5 but can be done by a very very good player logging tons of hours. Anyone hitting $100K in one year at 2/5 is going to stand out to everyone paying attention because of how much he wins and how much he plays.

ok I should have been clearer.

43.10 is me running like absolute ass

when my kid was in school I made it a point to stay on a completely normal schedule and I played the worst hours and spent weekends with her (not gamboolin). My earn was north of 50 over a hefty sample.

I have said this countless times. I am not a great poker player. BUT I play 2/5 very well. I truly understand how to adjust and actually do so. I can feel when my game is slipping and I do what is necessary to correct it. The whole thing aint rocket science by any stretch...but for my little world I have solved my particular equation pretty well.

I play with and associate with people significantly smarter than my self (I am talking a couple o dozen iq points). I do not understand some of the sht they do. I try but sometimes I cant wrap my head around it. I am not sure what the ceiling for w/r is but I think that is is pure mental masturbation trying to come up with a number.

I know a few stone cold killers and I promise the numbers are higher than what you are guessing.

I generally do not talk numbers and have poasted up 1 giraffe in my time here...but we are getting to the end of the year and my w/r is not very good for me and I wanted to point out that that was near the top of the rate you predicted for someone playing non prime hours (ya some are prime but a massive slug of this year is non prime as recreating has been a top priority and I need to be in bed early so I am fresh.

It still sounds like you are agreeing with what I said. My assumption is max win rate is about $45/hr during daytime and $60 during what I call peak hours (after dinner and anytime on weekends). Ive never once played after midnight so maybe its much higher that late. I have no idea.

If you played a mix of those hours and your win rate was somewhere north of $50 (lets call it $54), then youre right in there with what I call the max win rate. Im also talking about 100BB max games.

OK, maybe there are a few outliers who crush better than that but there arent many at all.

The overall point is that $100K at 2/5 is possible but unlikely for all but the very very best players and it should be obvious who they are. If some random guy you play with says he made $100K and he doesnt already stand out to you as a freaking killer, hes lying.

Wait, don't both of you guys play at Hard Rock Tampa? Can we get a Mike Starr v Squid Face heads up 4 rollz challenge?

I play fr. I have played a good bit of HU in my time...but have not in years. Also I got nuttin to prove so I respectfully decline. That being said I know a cute little girl who would be more than happy to play hu

After easily 7k of daytime game, I would agree, not to mention that most of daytime games around here consist of at most 2 tables and mostly just 1 with must-move.

After comparing my 2015 and 2016 I would have to agree.