No. Although if you're beating it for over 10bb/hr over that it's starting to lean toward probably by nothing certain.

Did I have an edge on my game?

Did you win in BB/hr by more than this?

MULTIPLIER * SDBBHR / SQRT (HOURS)

Where
SDBBHR = stddev in BB/HR, if you don't know your sample stddev in BB per hour, fill in 60 if you're a nit or 100 if you're a baller for a rough estimate
MULTIPLIER = 2 for 97.5% confident, 3 for 99.5% confident, 4 for really really really confident

better answer

I kept entering a slightly higher multiplier until my result equaled my win rate in BB/hr. My multiplier is 5.1. Does that give me (4) "reallys"? Or do I still only get 3?

Add in one super duper

I no longer coach so do not pm and ask...but

when I was coaching before I met with someone I would tell them to write down EXACTLY where they believe their edge in the game came from. They could go essay or bullet point

I found a very strong correlation to skill and how well they did on that

After 500 hours if you are any good you should be able to give a 45 minute speech on where your edge lies.

After a +3k session at 1/2 last night I may have to rethink my strategy of avoiding 1/2 entirely. Until my BR is back over 40k I think it would be prudent to play ~10 hours a week at 1/2 for relatively variance free income to cover the basic monthly nut and supplement that with game selecting 15 hours of 1/3 and another 15 hours at 2/5.

I've never found this variance free poker you speak of.

It was funny to hear about a +1500bb sesh and variance free in the same statement.

Hey now you know what I'm trying to say. Taking your advice after all about keeping up with the 1/2.

I know of others who slum it up st 1/2 1/3 for BR building. Since most "pros" are too proud to play it it's really pretty risk free and your WR isn't all that much lower if you're in a pond with more than a handful of grinders.

In before he loses 3 buy ins at 1/2 and says the game can't be beat due to rake

lol at 40 hours per month of 1/2 consistently covering living expenses. I'm not even a pro and I understand that the variance in these games is bad enough that there's no way you aren't going to have some pretty bad swings month to month. One good session at 1/2 does not mean that you are just going to cakewalk through it without downswings. Yes, it's easier than 2/5 and you will probably have a higher winrate in BB/hr, but there is no way you aren't going to have significant downswings and breakeven stretches. If maximizing winrate and minimizing risk is your goal you are probably better off game selecting. Play 2/5 when the lineup is good, move down to 1/2 when it's tougher.

No 2/5 lineup should be tough if you're any good.

While there may not be a 2/5 table that isnt beatable, every lineup is different. For someone serious about makig a living, table selection is as fundamental a skill as pot odds calculations. Sometimes table selection means jumping stakes. Its a much better reason to move around stakes than arbitrary hours targets.

Obv the randomness is the same in a 1/2 game as it is in a 2/5 game. They use 52 card decks and shuffle machines etc.

It is true that some of the variation resulting from incomplete information is eliminated by the face up play of our opponents at lower levels.

But it's the magnitude of the variance relative to our b/r and presumably higher w/r (in terms of BB) that make the swings less noticeable or less risky since much of the fluctuation takes place on the up side.


I just find it amusing that we tend to not attribute abnormally large wins to variance the way we do even smaller losses.

My point being that your comment about variance free poker was ironically motivated by a session result that actually demonstrates significant variance.

But yes my advice to keep one foot in the 1/2 1/3 game (or occasionally exercise your 1/2 muscle) when you began shot taking 2/5 was based on my experience and what I've witnessed of others who move up and then refuse to play smaller if they struggle or if the games are bad due to pride or whatever.

I was talking to someone who's last 3 flopped sets were top set where stacks went in on the flop and he lost on turn or river. That happens at all stakes. At 2/5 a guy might be semi bluffing a draw and at 1/2 he might be calling it off passively...still happens.

Btw not trying to diminish your sick 1/2 session. Obv you did one or two things right

The arbitrary hour targets are actually not very arbitrary at all. I have a pretty good idea which stakes are best each day of the week at the two primary casinos I play at which coincides with the blended mix I mentioned above. The point I was making was I shouldn't avoid 1/2 entirely just because the earning ceiling isn't as high as 2/5 on an absolute scale.

The only way this makes sense is if you are not a winner at 2/5 but need to continue playing 2/5 in order to improve and become a crusher.

So if you only make $10 an hour at 2/5 but make $25 an hour at 1/2, then it makes sense to play 1/2 to pad your roll, but also playing 2/5 in order to eventually become a $50 an hour winner.

You've made posts before claiming a $60 hourly was possible at 1/2. I don't know you personally, but I think you tend to get over excited/ over confident when running well. The flipside of that, is that you may be susceptible to tilt and poor play when running bad (as evidenced by your big downswing).

Before your big downswing, didn't you have a > $10k month at 2/5 earlier this year, while working a full time job? If you were crushing that hard and have a comfort in the game, I don't see how you could not play 2/5, and at the very least 1/3.

I mean 1/2 is a gravy train and all, but dude, I really hope you didn't quit a good job to be grinding 1/2 for a living. Don't let having a 3k night trick you, you're gonna have sh*t runbad and super long stretches of being card dead that you never thought was possible that brings your winrate way down back to the $20-25 an hour levels.

Ive had two seperate 8bi downswings in 1/3 (with a 2x-5x ms straddle)

everytime I go on like a +10bi kick I remind myself that this is no cake walk and it gets real sometimes.

I stated $50/hour was attainable over small sample sizes game selecting very well, which I still believe.

Wat?

Yes I did. Two months in a row actually. But playing recreationally is is a completely different beast than playing for a living. Nurturing, protecting and growing the BR is my only concern at this point.

How could that possibly be your takeaway from my post?

Thanks. I've never experienced any of this (aka my last 500 hours) over the nearly 2000 hours I have logged since 2015.

You've never had long stretches of being card dead or long stretches of missing every flop?

Dude believes $50 is attainable at 1-2. How can smart people be so dumb sometimes?

Is this a deep game or just a 100bb max BI?

*If* it's a 100bb max BI, you ran hotter in that session than most likely any other 1/2 player in the history of time.

GImean,youknowthat,right?G

Define "short," cuz... this guy... <-------

$67/hr at 1/2.

arnt we talkin bout a <100 hr sample tho?