[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 605 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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06-05-2016 , 11:27 AM

#15101

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

Thx. I do have StDev/session...at least I have what the Apps says. Its $461.96

I used the calculator and entered all my sessions and my StDev/session is correct so Im going to assume my StDev/hr is correct also.

The maths is too hard for me to actually do it myself.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 11:29 AM

#15102

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

100%

Mikestarr: Google. P-hacking.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 11:30 AM

#15103

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

Thx. I do have StDev/session...at least I have what the Apps says. Its $461.96

For starters, if spreadsheet/math isn't your forte, paste some/all of your session results into that calculator Garick linked and see if it spits out something like $462.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 11:32 AM

#15104

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by spikeraw22

100%

Mikestarr: Google. P-hacking.

?????

Quote

06-05-2016 , 11:32 AM

#15105

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

I used the calculator and entered all my sessions and my StDev/session is correct so Im going to assume my StDev/hr is correct also.

The maths is too hard for me to actually do it myself.

Reasonable actually. If your per session stdev is that low, the hourly stdev makes sense, guessing probably just under 4hr session average.

No idea how you can crush at 2-5 with that low stdev/hr. Villains massive weak/tight and average stack size low? Stumped.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 11:35 AM

#15106

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by suited fours

I have no idea either. I just play how I play...but ever HH I post I get told that I suck....so read into that whatever you like.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 11:44 AM

#15107

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

at 1/3 my WR std is $200.82/hr and my WR is $10.57/hr

Quote

06-05-2016 , 11:50 AM

#15108

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

I am playing for a living,

I have rental, spousal, and some a few others incredibly small streams of income (typically amounting to less then $100/mo)

Your spouse's income AND whatever rental income you have is less than $100/month? How is that possible?

Quote

06-05-2016 , 11:51 AM

#15109

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

Your spouse's income AND whatever rental income you have is less than $100/month? How is that possible?

No,

I was refering to the "incredibly small streams of income"

Quote

06-05-2016 , 11:51 AM

#15110

DeathCabForTootie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5,722

Quote:

Originally Posted by suited fours

No idea how you can crush at 2-5 with that low stdev/hr. Villains massive weak/tight and average stack size low? Stumped.

That's my guess.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:04 PM

#15111

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,516

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

I used the calculator and entered all my sessions and my StDev/session is correct so Im going to assume my StDev/hr is correct also.

The maths is too hard for me to actually do it myself.

Actually very easy to check. Just use your StDev per session divided by the square root of your average session length.

So if your StDev/session is 462 you would divide 462 by (sqrt of average session length). Our algebra gets us 462/(sqrtX)=261. This means that our average session length should be 1.77 squared, or 3.13 hours. If that is your correct average session length, your StDev as shown in your tracker is correct.

If not, you need to figure it yourself by finding your average session length, getting its square root, and dividing 462 by that.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:04 PM

#15112

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

at 1/3 my WR std is $200.82/hr and my WR is $10.57/hr

I'd want a higher WR over past, say, 500 hours before moving up. The passivity of the 1-3 world is addictive tho....

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:04 PM

#15113

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

?????

Google p-hacking.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:08 PM

#15114

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

As I'm sure you're aware, that would just be an estimate of his stdev/hour. Probably plenty good enough.

I'm already convinced by the low stdev/session and high WR that he's on a heater in bizarro world. (not hating Mike, just telling it like it is)

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:14 PM

#15115

Angrist

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 3,887

Quote:

Originally Posted by suited fours

Small sample size.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:22 PM

#15116

VolumeKing

adept

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 729

Once you have an emergency fund of 6 months of living expenses (20k), a proper 1/2 roll (10k), then you can start setting aside 3k or so to play 2/5. So you should have at least 33k before playing 2/5. If you follow these guidelines and make 5bbs an hr you won't go broke.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:28 PM

#15117

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

Quote:

Originally Posted by suited fours

I'd want a higher WR over past, say, 500 hours before moving up. The passivity of the 1-3 world is addictive tho....

this is in my last 300 hours of 1/3

over lifetime(atleast since i started logging results in 2013) I've averaged about 18/hr across all stakes which is something like 40% 1/2 33% 1/3 25% 2/5 and 2% 5/T

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:29 PM

#15118

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

Quote:

Originally Posted by VolumeKing

I think an emergency fund of 20k whilst I have spousal and rental income is probably pretty insane.

my spousal/rental income covers our monthly nut with a small surplus so I can actually net $0 for months and not take any money out of bankroll.

20k is also almost a years worth a spending for us.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:29 PM

#15119

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by Angrist

Small sample size.

I'm talking about the 700 hours in total. Run good or not, the stdev/hr is low.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:33 PM

#15120

VolumeKing

adept

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 729

Quote:

Originally Posted by VolumeKing

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

So adjust to a $10k emergency fund. I've also learned that if you aren't comfortable loosing the money then it isn't actually in your bankroll. Having a larger emergency fund than bankroll doesn't make losing half your bankroll as serious. When I lose I constantly worry about my net worth and my ability to pay future bills. With an emergency fund, and a hefty checking account, I worry a bit less.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:38 PM

#15121

Angrist

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 3,887

Quote:

Originally Posted by suited fours

I'm talking about the 700 hours in total. Run good or not, the stdev/hr is low.

Oh. Missed that, saw the 275 hr sample earlier.

I suppose if the game is soft enough, and you play a nut-peddling strategy, you could get fairly consistent hourly results and a low stdev/hr.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:40 PM

#15122

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

I have no idea either. I just play how I play...but ever HH I post I get told that I suck....so read into that whatever you like.

Interesting how your stdev is so slow when you were using overbetting as your counter examples of how there are more than one way to play poker.

You are running hotter than probably what you can fathom.

Everyone should be jelly, no different than being jelly of Powerball winners.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 12:42 PM

#15123

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by Angrist

I suppose if the game is soft enough, and you play a nut-peddling strategy, you could get fairly consistent hourly results and a low stdev/hr.

You would think, but he was citing examples of how he overbets TP and win, and how those examples show that there are more than one way to play poker.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 03:17 PM

#15124

YGOchamp

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,555

@volumeking I 100% agree with you.

If you're being forced to constantly worry about paying future bills or even potentially going busto, you're not going to be able to play your A game, as you'll constantly pass up on +EV spots to reduce variance -- and the more you pass up on those opportunties, the less you'll be able to improve your game to constantly look for new edges to exploit, further hurting your WR

So IMO being able to withstand big swings without it effecting you psychologically is crucial.

Quote

06-05-2016 , 04:02 PM

#15125

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

VolumeKing is trying to troll me.

He can't tell the difference between "optimal" and "minimum" and believes both to be one of the same.

Having an optimal BR will obviously help someone to be more focused in maximizing EV spots and not worry about losing x amount of $.

Quote

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