Well, if you believe that max win rate is when you can see people's hands, then you probably believe that you can dodge bullets or simply don't bet on head when you know tail is coming.

Would be interesting for you to post your giraffe after this many hours (maybe even under an alt?) simply to illustrate the no-doubt ugly ups/downs/flats you've had over this time. Doubt many that post in this thread (maybe squid? one or two others?) have more live hours...

Gwouldprobablybeeyeopeningtomanyinthisthread,imoG

Pass.

I can tell you how many war stars I have though.

7k hours is by itself very impressive

I can tell you that it was extremely miserable when I only had about 20 BIs.

I'd love to see it too.

I've got 4,084 hours since July of 2008 when I started playing live:


Zoomed to about the last 1000 hours:


A lot of those spikes are series where I'll go win-3, lose-1, win-3 sessions, and the reverse on the down side. So you can't just look for continuous winning or losing stretches to define an up or downswing.

Next time I do a real analysis I'm going to try a peak finding algorithm we've been using at work to see if I can pick off the swings automatically. Might be interesting.

It is obvious from this thread that the less experience you have, the less you think variance affects you. I've been up and down 5BI in a single 4 hr session. Anything is possible.

This might be one of the most valuable samples ever posted ITT. Tytyty for sharing.

The value is - there are so many 400~600 hour sections you could pick out to tell whatever narrative you want.

Ty for posting. Everyone take a good hard look at hours 2k-3k on the top graph.

Angrist can you zoom in on a couple of 500 hr stretches specifically and put them side by side? I bet you have a >$100/hr difference in some places.

Try stepping it up to level 3

I not only try to run hot and cooler people, but I make sure to try and let whales cooler bits and pros to increase their stacks so when I cooler then I gets more maniez

No problem. Seems like we keep talking about these things without any data.


When I started I was very raw. Played rather tight, not exactly scared, but definitely nitty. Folded a lot of spots where I was probably good in retrospect.

I'm much better now, but not significantly better than some in my player pool (worse than a couple). Have leaks that I know I need to plug that hurt my overall winrate too. But I'd think it's safe to say I'm at least a proven winner.


I've got a Matlab script to break things down by location, day of week, game, etc. Also plots trailing 100 and 500 hour winrates. Amazing how much noise there is in that number. +- $30/hr *easily* in the 100 hour samples. Can't find the old figures and don't have time to make more yet.

Thanks for posting.

Love the sick ~200hr plummet at the 2,000 hour mark (where I'm sure most of us think we have it all figured out).

Someone else posted a giraffe a couple of months ago, with a pretty decent winrate at ~2000 hours, and then the wheels completely fell off (my memory is shot, can't remember who that was?).

ETA: Found it: AllJackedUp (see post#11544 for more lol's at the 2,000 hour cliff).

GcluelessgiraffenoobG

The swing right after 2000 hours was ****ing BRUTAL. There was some tilt in there for sure. But shoveling $600 into a pot with a boat and getting rivered, then losing AA to QJ AIPF on the next hand (hooray for the shove that looks tilty with AA ) for another $200 can get to anyone.


Let me see what I can do. I'd looked at this last year, and there wasn't anything near +-$100/hr variation in samples longer than 100 hours. Think it was about +$50/hr to -$25/hr.

TLDR for last 5 pages: People over 2k hours say that 20bb+ winrates aren't sustainable and that variance is a bitch. People with under 1k hours irrefutably prove them wrong with a couple giraffes.

Couple of 500 hour stretches plotted against each other:



There's a little bit of PLO in there, but not enough to throw things off significantly (I hope).

Maybe I overestimated then. Still pretty wild variation over seemingly long samples (but not).

Yea.

I think I play quite a bit for a rec player, but 500 hours takes me about a year. So each one of those samples can *feel* like forever.

I'm a rec 550 hour/year player myself. Last year I pretty much felt I flatlined all year; 2.6 bb/hr, albeit winning, so I guess I'm not complaining, but seems like a lifetime ago from two years prior when I ran at 11.8 bb/hr.

Gprobablyabreakevenplayerrunningextremelyhotover27 00hours,lol,can'twaitfortherealadjustmentG

It's kinda funny/depressing when you realize all of your winnings have really come from 1/4 of your playing time. In this case it's hours 0-250, 1250-1500, and 3000-3500. Everything else is basically just staying even

Still nice to see a 4K sample. Thanks for posting it

Level right?

Seems the point of poker is to stay afloat until the next heater.

This is beyond true.

Don't go busto until your next paycheck.

Hr 0-300 man I could probably do this for a living.
Hr 300-1200 I should quit poker.
Hr 1200-1400 I should quit my job!
Hr 1.4k-2k games getting toughr I think I'm running bad.
Hr 2k-2.3k I should quit poker.
He 2.3k-3k is it really worth it?
Hr 3k-3.5k I got this now. I really should quit my job.
Hr 3.5k-4k hey but the comps tho?

Hr 7k - "whatever"