But my goal is to run hot!

I can show you this for my 1/2 and 1/3 stats combined over about 700 hours. I've played maybe 1300-1500 hours of 1/2 - 5/10 but my data only goes back for the last 700 hours when I started tracking each session religiously. No sessions are excluded since then.

Seven. Hundred. Hours. Is. Nothing.

decent goal but it is really a level one kind of goal which shows your overall inexperience. As a grizzled vet my goal is to not only run hot but to cooler people as well. Keep at it kid - I see your game is improving.

To those of you claiming fantasy video game number winrates: your first 8-10 buy-in downswing will be humbling. When you reach 2-3k hours and it happens then you can join the rest of us miserable ****s living in reality.

has had one of those, but I've only played 1000 hrs of 1/2 so the 3k hr one will be epic.

+1

In my first ~1800 hours @ 1/3 NL, I never officially recorded a 5 BI downswing.

In my next ~400 hours @ 1/3 NL, I booked two 10-8 BI downswings.

Gthoseskyhighwinratesarehardtomaintainthankstothos edownswingsyouabsolutelywillencountergiventimeG

8-10 BIs counts as a bad downswing?

My worst downswings over 472 hours of 1|2 were 5.5 BIs, 7.5 BIs and 9.5 BIs. I've lost 3-4 BIs in single sessions several times. It seems like it easily could have been worse.

My wr over that period is $25.68 if that matters (just sneaking in a lame brag over an lolsmallsample)

This. Just last night I was into the game for 1200 and on my last money for the night, ran my stack to 2k and cashed out. 8-10 buyins doesn't seem like much to worry about.

Obviously this is just anecdotal but its pretty normal over my last 700 hours, like 20% of my session are 4 fig swings.

4 figure swings at 1/2 NL? My guess is that you play in a higher than 100bb BI game, or perhaps play a really laggy high variance style?

I just recently went on a stretch of 13 months (600ish hours) @ 1/3 NL where I didn't book a single 4 figure win and booked one 4 figure loss (only the second time I've ever booked a 4 figure loss).

Gcourse,Ialsobookedatotallylamewinrateduringthatpe riod,soIprobablyjustsuckG

I recall looking at dhcg's winrate brag chart and if you had removed two or three sessions from his log, he was practically breaking even.

People don't realize how variance can play a big role in WR.

Fact that someone is saying 4 figure swing is normal in his 700 hour experience and has crushing WR...I just laugh.

This just goes to show how different swings are for different people with different styles. If you have swings like that, it makes sense that 700 hrs is nothing. For other people 300-500 hands will get them pretty close to their true win rate.

I have a tad under 500 hrs of $2/$5 live since I started playing regularly. I haven't won or lost more than 2 1/2 buy ins in any session. I've won 82% of all my sessions which may seem like Im leaving a lot of money on the table by playing weak tight or whatever, but my win rate is $55 / hr ( 11BBs / hr) so I dont think thats the case at all.

Of course there will be some bad losing streaks coming at some point, but I believe my playing style will keep my bad downswings to 5-7 buy ins where it seems like you play a much more volatile style that will cause much deeper downswings and bigger winning sessions as well.

In over a million hands online back in the day my biggest downswing was 8 buy ins.

It's so funny that people don't realize that they're running like god and think it's the norm.

I was just about to say:

It's funny how you can tell the people who have put in thousands of hours and experienced huge downswings from the people running god like over <1k hours.

Thread is beyond saving.

I am God!

Like I said earlier, WR is determined by mostly these factors:

And you can pretty much do some kind of scoring system (1 to 5 maybe) to figure out whether you have optimal condition to hit max WR.

If average number of games during your playing time is 2, then I would do -5 for player pool.

Avg BI is 40bb? Again, -5.

Day of week? I would probably weight this factor a bit less, so do your own calculation.

Time of day? Pretty big deal, but it is closely related to avg BI and player pool, so I would probably factor a bit less, too.

Skill? Everyone is the greatest poker player ever.

It's interesting how people only ever use the word "variance" when referring to running bad and act like since they are winning player that variance can't possibly be the source of their heater when they are crushing the game at their heater rate.

This is the same sort of mentality of the people who have a $2k+ session and go out and drastically change their spending habits as if this sort of thing is normal (because they are "crushers of the game") and it was just terrible "variance" keeping them from making what is supposed to be $500,000/yr.

I am not. I have used this analogy before:

I am like a bar band. I have never had a hit song. In fact I have never composed my my own song. Never sold out a stadium. Not rich, not famous, but I work my ass off day in and day out. I have a pretty decent play list...but I do not know all of the songs. The good news is I seldom butcher one too much

Subbing

If I had to guess the people adamantly saying others dont know variance probably play a very very high variance style. Losing 4 buyins in a session at 1/2 seems freaking absurd especially because 1/2 players play very face up. If I had to guess, you are probably not b/fing enough and chalking too many hands up as "coolers" when in fact you just cant make the hard folds.

Pretty true, didn't experience a real downswing until 1500 hours in. (Granted a good portion of it came from PLO, but it was a lot of 70/30 spots that could be comparable to variance regardless).

That being said, bounced right back the month after to retain said winrate

It's fine if he's clueless obv, but his inability to accept what many good, actual experienced pros tell him about variance in live poker is the tilting part.

Seriously, just think how bad he's gonna start playing once he goes on an inevitable long downswing/breakeven stretch! Anyone with the above kinda ego is in big trouble once they hit a truly sustained bad run.

One day he's gonna look back and feel a little silly wrt to his win rate/variance ideas(not a big deal). But sadly, there's a very high chance he looks back and realizes going pro instead of staying at his 6 figure(i think he has said 6 fig?) job was a huge mistake with significant consequences(a very big deal).

JB, as a pro in his 9th year, I would offer you more advice/explanation, but pretty obvious it will fall on deaf ears. Best of luck to you!

I'm guilty of this. After a big win I'm known to splurge by buying an ice cream with dinner (without comps!). I might also get a mountain dew on the ride home.

Shame on me

To be fair, I remember being super naive back in my 1/2 days thinking I found a money tree and when people would talk about downswings I would just think they didn't know how to play poker.

Then I played more. And more. And more.

Then you see the light (darkness?).

JB please try and maintain some humility because I promise you there are rough times ahead.

If it's absurd, why has it happened to so many people?

Flip a coin 100 times and write down heads or tails. It's pretty damn easy to get 4-6 tails in a row. If those were close hands with relatively thin edges (+-5-10%) you can easily get a +-4 BI swing.

You can do the same thing with a 6 sided die and see how often you go on a streak of losing 85% or 70% to win hands. It happens even when you get your money in hugely good.

I only get to play 8-10 hours a week so I'm guessing there is a non-zero % chance I die before I see any significant downswong.

Here's to running good in the death department!!!

/mainlines an 8-ball