[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 538 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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02-14-2016 , 09:29 AM

#13426

YGOchamp

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,555

Yeah agreed. Anybody who disagrees clearly doesn't understand math. Like, if I flip a coin 4 times in a row and get tails all 4 times, I'm mathematically at a huge advantage to get heads the 5th time.

/kappa

Quote

02-14-2016 , 09:52 AM

#13427

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

IL due in powerball. Just waiting for it to hit $1b first. Still won't move up past $1/2 likely because BR nit.

Quote

02-14-2016 , 12:15 PM

#13428

daniel9861

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,389

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowball2

I made my point in direct response to what you said about win rate in big blinds increases proportionally to increase in big blinds - ie., "double the blinds, double your win rate in money because your win rate in bbs stay constant".

I'm saying your win rate in bb doesn't stay constant, because it's limited by the effective stack sizes (ie. there are less bbs to be won)

To be fair, I think your win rate in $$ probably increases somewhat just because the pot sizes are bigger/more blinds to steal, but you definitely arent going to see a proportional increase. It's hard to say how much it increases though, and it may not increase at all. Really depends on the game. Much higher variance too playing short stack, so depends if you prefer making a little more with way more variance, or the other way.

Oh, well I already agreed with you that factors would change and winrate wouldn't remain constant. My argument was that creating a mandatory straddle in a bad game might make sense for the winners since it could increase their $/hr to the point where the game is now worth playing whereas it wasn't worth playing without the straddle. Or depending on play style and leaks or how the table is playing/would adjust the bb/hr might not decrease at all for some players.

Quote

02-14-2016 , 02:42 PM

#13429

flowrider

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 155

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

it was clearly his time to hit.

its like when you bet $20 on roulette and lose 4 times in a row you now its time to now put down a $1000 bet. its almost a sure thing

Martingale system. Works perfectly every time (assuming an infinite bankroll).

Quote

02-14-2016 , 03:31 PM

#13430

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by daniel9861

Here may be a relevant example:

If you are winner in a 100bb 2/5 game at 8bb/hr and you shot-take 5/10 game by shortbuying at 50bb, are you not going to expect your winrate to be at least 4bb/hr or more?

Quote

02-14-2016 , 03:32 PM

#13431

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by YGOchamp

If you ever look at history of someone flipping coin 1000 times, you will see how rare that 5 tails are flipped in the row.

So obviously flipping tail for the 5th time is slim to none.

Quote

02-14-2016 , 03:44 PM

#13432

YGOchamp

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,555

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

If you ever look at history of someone flipping coin 1000 times, you will see how rare that 5 tails are flipped in the row.

So obviously flipping tail for the 5th time is slim to none.

What about 5 heads?

Quote

02-14-2016 , 04:59 PM

#13433

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

A bit more likely.

Quote

02-14-2016 , 05:38 PM

#13434

bodybuilder32

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 1,423

Tails never fails. DUCY?

Quote

02-14-2016 , 05:40 PM

#13435

daniel9861

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,389

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

Shottaking isn't the same because now you have to factor in the change in winrate due to the differing player pools whereas when the decision is regular game vs adding a mandatory straddle the player pool stays the same.

Quote

02-14-2016 , 06:33 PM

#13436

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by daniel9861

If you are shottaking, would you rather have a table full of 5/10 players or 3/5 players?

Quote

02-14-2016 , 08:10 PM

#13437

ohsnapzbrah

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 3,936

Quote:

Originally Posted by philepistemer

Iso limpers wider in co and btn, C-bet more frequently in hu pots, bet the turn more frequently for protection and thin value, and call much tighter when someone makes a big bet unless you have good reason to believe they don't have it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

Read these two threads and print mobnies. The F do.

Thanks for the tips guys! Was definitely some good reads. Now to play some FR Bovada until my money arrives, seems to play very similar to live games

Quote

02-15-2016 , 06:44 AM

#13438

andees10

veteran

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 3,281

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

here's a little chip porn to get things back on track. ran very poorly at 2/5 in february so i used my "i'm due for a heater of a session" at 10/10. did not disappoint.

cashed out ~6800 (bought in for 1k). have a couple of hands to post in mid-high stakes.

Is this your blog thread? Just curious

Quote

02-15-2016 , 11:15 AM

#13439

ZuneIt

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,160

Quote:

Originally Posted by kookiemonster

''Are you sure you want to add Richard Parker to your ignore list? ''

YES

RP is my hero! I'm lookin' forward to the opportunity to play HU against him, while he tacks on 100 posts to the 12,412 he already has.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 11:19 AM

#13440

ZuneIt

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,160

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

Quote:

Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k

nice hit.

i like that you use the 'running bad, so it's time to move up' logic.

I am going to the roulette wheel & wait until a number is way overdue to hit & then put $25 on it.

Nice hit johnnyB !

Quote

02-15-2016 , 12:08 PM

#13441

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZuneIt

I am going to the roulette wheel & wait until a number is way overdue to hit & then put $25 on it.

Nice hit johnnyB !

It's strictly science, Zune

Quote

02-15-2016 , 12:31 PM

#13442

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

BR nit check:

15k roll, 5k E fund, 95% of monthly outflow is covered by MrsDeadfish income and our rental income.

Im playing a 100-300 1/3 with MS straddle.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 12:36 PM

#13443

kekeeke

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 1,306

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

BR nit check:

15k roll, 5k E fund, 95% of monthly outflow is covered by MrsDeadfish income and our rental income.

Im playing a 100-300 1/3 with MS straddle.

why change a winning formula?

getting to the point where you don't even care about br is awesome

Quote

02-15-2016 , 12:51 PM

#13444

daniel9861

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,389

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

If you are shottaking, would you rather have a table full of 5/10 players or 3/5 players?

There's no need for a rhetorical question. What's your point?

Quote

02-15-2016 , 12:57 PM

#13445

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

BR nit check:

15k roll, 5k E fund, 95% of monthly outflow is covered by MrsDeadfish income and our rental income.

Im playing a 100-300 1/3 with MS straddle.

If you build your roll up to 20-25k I think you should take some 2/5 shots.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 12:58 PM

#13446

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

Quote:

Originally Posted by kekeeke

why change a winning formula?

getting to the point where you don't even care about br is awesome

Well, I totally do care about BR.

because MrsDeadfish and our rental income can cover our living expenses i've been trusted with the task of building up retirement funds and/or paying down debt faster.

clearly quite the task and I want to be able to make as much $ as possible

Quote

02-15-2016 , 01:33 PM

#13447

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

You should defimitely
Be shot taking on weekends at 15k IMO.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 01:58 PM

#13448

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by daniel9861

There's no need for a rhetorical question. What's your point?

I thought it's pretty clear.

Here is the original argument:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowball2

One fact that people can never admit or realize is that mandatory straddle makes a game that's already bad, worse.

If the game's tight and people are already hesitant to put money in, how would it make the game better if they suddenly had to put in twice as much money?

If the game was 3/5 with 100bb, now with straddle, it is 5/10 with 50bb.

Players remain the same, 3/5 players, and now they're playing 5/10.

If we are a winner at 8bb/hr playing 100bb 3/5, can we not expect to win 4bb+ playing 50bb at 5/10 with 3/5 players?

If not, then doesn't it also mean that anyone who ever shottakes with less than 100bb is -EV?

Quote

02-15-2016 , 02:58 PM

#13449

ZippyThePinhead

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 948

Interesting to start looking at my results in chunks of time as I work to improve my game.

Most recent 440 hours
Cashed 37/54 for 68%
BB/hour 10.69
St dev 32.27 bb/hour

Most recent 329
29/41 for 70%
BB/hour 12.73
Std dev 32.18 bb/hour

Most recent 209 hours
19/24 for 79%
BB/hour 17.27
Std dev 23.53 bb/hour

So, am I a fish on a heater, am I getting better or are they getting worse?

Sent from my SM-T320 using 2+2 Forums

Quote

02-15-2016 , 03:06 PM

#13450

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

BR nit check:

15k roll, 5k E fund, 95% of monthly outflow is covered by MrsDeadfish income and our rental income.

Im playing a 100-300 1/3 with MS straddle.

Let WR = your assumed hourly win rate

SD = your sample hourly stddev

If your WR is accurate, then at the end of the next 100 hours there is about a 1 in 200 chance that you'll be down more than

(WR *100 - (3*SD*100 / sqrt(100)) )
Or
(WR * 100 - SD * 30)

This is the sort of number I'd look at if asking myself this question. It doesn't answer your question, but can inform your decision making process.

Quote

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